Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: ROBERTO EVELIM PENHA BORGES

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : ROBERTO EVELIM PENHA BORGES
DATA : 21/09/2018
HORA: 13:00
LOCAL: Núcleo de Pesquisas em Inovação em Tecnolgia da Informação - NPITI
TÍTULO:

Oilfield Abandonment Decision by Applying a Fuzzy Pay-Off Method for Real Options

PALAVRAS-CHAVES:

Oilfield abandonment. Real options. Fuzzy logic.

PÁGINAS: 55
GRANDE ÁREA: Engenharias
ÁREA: Engenharia de Energia
RESUMO:

The decision whether or not to abandon an oil-producing field is complex. The uncertainty inherent to the estimates used as premises makes that only the passage of time points out whether the decision made was correct. However, companies need to make this decision continuously, based on the information and techniques available at the time of evaluation. The valuation of a petroleum field considering the abandonment real option is a modern way of supporting such a decision. Unlike traditional techniques, such as discounted cash flow, which only consider average values in valuation, the analysis of real options contemplates the possible values that the estimated variables can assume. The Fuzzy Payoff Method (FPOM) is a technique that simplifies complex academic solutions for valuation of real options, since it is based on scenarios and fuzzy logic. During this work, to overcome an inconsistency identified in the original FPOM, the Center of Gravity Fuzzy Payoff Method (CoG-FPOM) was developed and presented. Hence, the model intended to support the oilfield abandonment decision proposed here has the CoG-FPOM in its core. The results obtained with the application of the model show the expected conceptual advantage and the value added by the analysis of real options in the abandonment decision. By using scenarios and fuzzy logic, the model achieves simplicity and ease of implementation, allowing the industry's interest.

MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Presidente - 347628 - ADRIAO DUARTE DORIA NETO
Externo ao Programa - 2212166 - BENJAMIN RENE CALLEJAS BEDREGAL
Externo à Instituição - MARCO ANTONIO GUIMARAES DIAS - PUC - RJ
Externo à Instituição - VICENTE DELGADO MOREIRA - PETROBRAS