Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: MYSAEL ROSA JUSTINO

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : MYSAEL ROSA JUSTINO
DATE: 16/09/2026
TIME: 15:00
LOCAL: Google Meet
TITLE:

Academic Performance of Affirmative Action Students: Evidence on Mismatch Effects, Catch-Up Dynamics, and Student Retention at UFRN

KEY WORDS:

Academic mismatch; Academic performance; Catch-up; Affirmative action; Student retention; Higher education

PAGES: 142
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUMMARY:

This dissertation investigates evidence consistent with the mismatch hypothesis in academic performance, catch-up dynamics, and student retention patterns among affirmative action and non-affirmative action students admitted to the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN). The mismatch hypothesis argues that beneficiaries of affirmative action policies may exhibit lower academic performance due to a potential discrepancy between their prior academic preparation and the institution’s academic requirements. In contrast, part of the literature argues that the differences observed between the groups may reflect educational inequalities accumulated before entry into higher education and therefore do not necessarily constitute evidence of academic mismatch.

To investigate these issues, academic, sociodemographic, and institutional data from students admitted to UFRN between 2015 and 2019 were combined with performance data from the Brazilian National High School Examination (ENEM). Initially, descriptive analyses, mean difference tests, and linear regression models were used to assess differences in academic performance between affirmative action and non-affirmative action students. Propensity Score Matching (PSM) was then applied using average ENEM scores, sex, race/skin color, and age at admission, with nearest-neighbor matching and a caliper of 0.10. Longitudinal models were subsequently estimated to examine the evolution of academic performance throughout undergraduate studies. Finally, Kaplan–Meier curves, logistic regressions, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the occurrence of and time to university dropout.

The results show that affirmative action students have, on average, lower ENEM scores and lower academic performance coefficients in unadjusted comparisons. However, when models with and without ENEM controls are estimated using the same sample, the negative association between affirmative action status and academic performance disappears after prior academic preparation is taken into account. The PSM results reinforce this interpretation: after constructing groups that are more comparable in terms of observable characteristics, no evidence is found of lower academic performance associated with affirmative action status.

The longitudinal analysis also provides no support for the conventional catch-up pattern, understood as the recovery of an initial disadvantage among affirmative action students. In the specifications estimated using the common sample, no statistically significant differences are identified between the slopes of the two groups’ academic trajectories. In the matched sample, affirmative action students exhibit an estimated advantage during the initial semesters, followed by relatively slower performance growth. This pattern produces convergence through a reduction in their initial advantage rather than through recovery from an initial disadvantage.

The student retention analyses are likewise inconsistent with the mismatch hypothesis. In specifications without ENEM controls, no evidence is found of a higher probability or greater risk of dropout among affirmative action students. After controlling for prior academic preparation, affirmative action students exhibit approximately 29% lower odds of dropping out in the logistic regression and around a 26% lower instantaneous risk of enrollment cancellation in the Cox model.

Taken together, the results indicate that the differences initially observed between affirmative action and non-affirmative action students are highly sensitive to controls for disparities in academic preparation prior to entering higher education. No robust evidence is found of persistent academic mismatch associated with affirmative action policies in terms of either academic performance or student retention. The findings are consistent with the expansion of access to public higher education without evidence of systematic academic disadvantage among its beneficiaries. They also reinforce the importance of considering educational inequalities prior to university admission when evaluating affirmative action policies.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - PABLO TADEU CHAVES DE CASTRO - UFBA
Externo à Instituição - SYNTHIA KARINY SILVA DE SANTANA - IPEA