Banca de DEFESA: RICELLIANO DE SOUZA CARDOSO

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : RICELLIANO DE SOUZA CARDOSO
DATE: 19/12/2022
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: videoconferência
TITLE:

INFLUENCE OF GOVERNMENT FINANCIAL CONDITION ON THE PROBABILITY OF RE-ELECTION OF BRAZILIAN MAYORS

KEY WORDS:

Government financial condition; municipal finances; political cycles

PAGES: 67
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Administração
SUBÁREA: Ciências Contábeis
SUMMARY:

The preservation of financial health is a fundamental requirement for sustainable and independent government management, however, in recent years, several Brazilian municipalities have been facing financial problems. This
controversial fiscal situation directly impacts the ability to provide public services and the economic growth of the subnational entities, in view of the financial unavailability for their own funding and also the unfeasibility of resources for investment by the public authorities. Additionally, studies on political cycles have demonstrated the
relationship between fiscal management as an instrument of self-promotion for electoral purposes, showing that the fiscal structure has considerable potential to be used to achieve political-electoral incentives, especially reelection. Considering the potentially opportunistic behavior of the rulers, as presupposed by the theory of political cycles, and the need for an efficient and effective economic-financial management to maintain the good financial condition of the municipalities, this research aims to investigate the extent to which the financial condition of the municipalities Brazilians influences the probability of reelection of mayors in municipal elections. For this, a sample of 568 municipalities was composed and the period between 2016 and 2020 was analyzed. For
empirical analysis, the logistic regression technique was used. The results of the study indicated that the municipality classified as having a solid financial condition presents an increase in the probability of reappointment of the respective municipal mayors by about 0.09%, confirming the hypothesis that the more solid the financial condition, the greater the probability of reappointment of the mayor. On the other hand, classifying the financial condition as fragile results in a reduction in the probability of reappointment of municipal mayors by approximately 0.14%, also confirming the second hypothesis that predicted a lower probability of reappointment of mayors in municipalities with the weakest financial condition. These findings contribute to the literature by making it possible to understand how the government's financial condition impacts the political environment and consequent policy decisions. It also adds new perspectives to social control, ratifying the need for accountability of public managers and preventive, sustainable and strategic actions to improve financial solvency through technical and scientific criteria. Finally, it contributes to the electoral process insofar as it helps to understand the maturity level of the average Brazilian voter to value or punish rulers with an opportunistic bias who prefer more noticeable spending as opposed to the most necessary.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Interno - 1149391 - ANAILSON MARCIO GOMES
Externo à Instituição - JOSEDILTON ALVES DINIZ - UFPB
Presidente - 1149555 - SEVERINO CESARIO DE LIMA