Banca de DEFESA: JULIANE DE MELO DANTAS VICTOR

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : JULIANE DE MELO DANTAS VICTOR
DATE: 31/03/2026
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: Plataforma Google Meet
TITLE:

Maternal Mortality in Brazil: Trends and Projections from 1996 to 2023

KEY WORDS:

Maternal Mortality. Time Series. Health Indicator. Women’s Health. Public Health.

PAGES: 75
BIG AREA: Ciências da Saúde
AREA: Saúde Coletiva
SUMMARY:

Introduction: Maternal mortality remains a major public health challenge, particularly in developing countries, reflecting social and regional inequalities as well as weaknesses in health‑system organization. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) as the primary global indicator for monitoring this issue and emphasizes its continuous surveillance to guide reduction strategies. Objective: To assess temporal trends in the MMR in Brazil and its macro‑regions from 1996 to 2023, and to estimate projections for the years 2027 and 2030. Methods: This time‑series study used secondary data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and the Live Birth Information System (SINASC). Trend and projection analyses followed the Box–Jenkins methodology, employing ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models according to the characteristics of each series. Additionally, the Mann–Kendall test was applied to identify trends, the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test to assess stationarity, the Ljung–Box test to evaluate residual autocorrelation, and the Shapiro–Wilk test to examine residual normality. Results: The analysis indicated relative stability of the MMR in Brazil over the study period. Among macro‑regions, a decreasing trend was observed in the South, stability in the Southeast, and increasing trends in the North, Northeast, and Central‑West regions, highlighting persistent territorial inequalities. Projections for 2027 and 2030 suggest maintenance of values similar to those observed in recent decades. Regarding the WHO target of reducing the MMR to fewer than 70 deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, only the South region shows compatible estimates (approximately 50 deaths per 100,000 live births). In the Southeast, projections for 2030 range from 55 to 70. In the remaining regions, no significant declines are projected, with the North region presenting the most concerning scenario (80 to 100 deaths per 100,000 live births). Conclusion: Maternal mortality in Brazil displays a heterogeneous pattern marked by persistent regional disparities. The findings underscore the need for public policies tailored to territorial specificities, with emphasis on strengthening women’s health care, expanding access to quality services, and reducing structural inequities. Continuous monitoring of the MMR, combined with intersectoral strategies and sustained investments, is essential for advancing toward international targets and ensuring safe conditions for pregnancy, childbirth, and the postpartum period across the country.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1692571 - ANNA CECILIA QUEIROZ DE MEDEIROS
Interna - 1242804 - ADRIANA GOMES MAGALHAES
Externa à Instituição - ELLANY GURGEL COSME DO NASCIMENTO - UERN