Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: NAYARA CRISTINA DA COSTA FERREIRA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : NAYARA CRISTINA DA COSTA FERREIRA
DATE: 23/02/2026
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: VIDEOCONFERÊNCIA
TITLE:

DETERMINING FACTORS OF BUDGETARY VARIATIONS IN BRAZILIAN STATES

 

KEY WORDS:

budgetary variations; fiscal governance; public planning.

PAGES: 40
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Administração
SUBÁREA: Ciências Contábeis
SUMMARY:

This study investigates the determinants of budgetary variations in Brazilian states, a phenomenon that is highly relevant for understanding the quality of public planning and subnational fiscal governance. Inspired by the model proposed by Martins and Correia (2015), the research adopts an empirical approach to assess the effects of economic, political, institutional, and social determinants on the deviations between budgeted and realized revenues, expenditures, and fiscal outcomes. To this end, a dynamic panel data methodology is applied using the System GMM estimator, based on data from the 26 Brazilian states and the Federal District over the period from 2016 to 2024. The explanatory variables include indicators such as GDP per capita, the political–electoral cycle, alignment between the Executive and Legislative branches, participation in fiscal adjustment programs, the Human Development Index (HDI), and the Gini index. The results are expected to indicate that state wealth and fiscal discipline significantly reduce budgetary variations. This research contributes to the literature by integrating, in a novel manner within the Brazilian subnational context, institutional governance variables with a robust dynamic panel data model.

 

 

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Interno - 3297036 - LUIS MANUEL ESTEVES DA ROCHA VIEIRA
Externo à Instituição - RONALDO JOSE REGO DE ARAUJO - UFCG
Presidente - 1149555 - SEVERINO CESARIO DE LIMA