Banca de DEFESA: NAYARA CRISTINA DA COSTA FERREIRA

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : NAYARA CRISTINA DA COSTA FERREIRA
DATE: 22/06/2026
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: VIDEOCONFERÊNCIA
TITLE:

Determinants of Budgetary Variations in the Brazilian States

KEY WORDS:

budgetary variations; fiscal governance; public planning.

PAGES: 60
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Administração
SUBÁREA: Ciências Contábeis
SUMMARY:

This study investigates the determinants of budgetary variations in Brazilian states, a phenomenon that is relevant for understanding the quality of public planning and subnational fiscal governance. The research adopts an empirical-analytical approach based on the formulation and testing of hypotheses, assessing the effects of economic, political, institutional, and social determinants on the discrepancies between budgeted and actual revenues, expenditures, and budgetary outcomes. Methodologically, the study employs dynamic panel data analysis using the System GMM estimator, covering Brazil’s 26 states and the Federal District from 2016 to 2024. The explanatory variables include indicators such as GDP per capita, political- electoral cycles, alignment between the Executive and Legislative branches, personnel expenditures, as well as social variables such as the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Gini coefficient. The results indicate that revenue variation is primarily
explained by its own temporal dynamics and institutional factors, whereas economic and social variables do not exhibit significant influence. In contrast, expenditure variation appears to be more sensitive to political events and exogenous shocks than to structural fundamentals. Likewise, ideological factors, political alignment, and
socioeconomic characteristics do not significantly affect budgetary outcomes. On the other hand, the COVID-19 pandemic exerted a substantial impact on state finances, reflecting increased federal transfers and expenditure containment measures, which contributed to the generation of budget surpluses during the period. This research contributes to the literature by integrating, for the first time in the context of Brazilian states, the analysis of institutional governance variables with the application of a robust dynamic panel data model.

 

 

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Interno - 3297036 - LUIS MANUEL ESTEVES DA ROCHA VIEIRA
Externo à Instituição - RONALDO JOSE REGO DE ARAUJO - UFCG
Presidente - 1149555 - SEVERINO CESARIO DE LIMA