Structural constraints on the fiscal effort of Brazilian municipalities.
fiscal federalism; fiscal effort; financial autonomy; political cycles; financial condition of governemnts.
This research aims to analyze the determining factors of the fiscal effort of Brazilian municipalities, with an emphasis on the mobilization of own revenues and financial autonomy in the context of fiscal federalism. Although the 1988 Federal Constitution expanded political-administrative decentralization and strengthened the role of municipalities in the provision of public policies, local financing capacity remains marked by high heterogeneity and significant dependence on intergovernmental transfers. To this end, the study considers variables of a structural, socioeconomic, fiscal, and political-institutional nature, including demographic characteristics, level of economic activity, commitment to personnel expenses, political cycles, and the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methodologically, the research adopts a quantitative approach, of a correlational and explanatory nature, using panel data for the period from 2015 to 2024. The dependent variable corresponds to the municipal fiscal effort, measured by the ratio between tax revenue collected and the municipal Gross Domestic Product. For the empirical analysis, a regression model with fixed effects will be employed, based on appropriate specification tests. It is expected that the results will contribute to the understanding of the factors that condition the fiscal effort of Brazilian municipalities, broadening the understanding of the dynamics of own-source revenue collection and offering subsidies for the improvement of fiscal management and the strengthening of financial autonomy at the local level.