Banca de DEFESA: CASSIA RAQUEL LIRA MONTEIRO

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : CASSIA RAQUEL LIRA MONTEIRO
DATE: 31/03/2026
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: VIDEOCONFERÊNCIA
TITLE:

CAPITAL EXPENDITURE DEVIATIONS: An Analysis of Economic and Political Factors Influencing Government Efficiency in Brazilian Municipalities

KEY WORDS:

budget execution; capital expenditures; governmental efficiency; political cycles; financial condition.

PAGES: 66
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Administração
SUBÁREA: Ciências Contábeis
SUMMARY:

Municipal public budget execution constitutes one of the main instruments for planning, management, and control of public policies, being essential to ensure efficiency in resource allocation and the effectiveness of government action. In this context, deviations between the budgeted amounts and those effectively executed represent a relevant indicator of the quality of budgetary management and fiscal governance. Accordingly, this research aims to analyze the combined effects of economic and political factors on the level of capital expenditure deviations in Brazilian municipalities during the period from 2016 to 2024. The study is structured into two interrelated chapters. The first examines the influence of economic variables—such as population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, own-source revenue, and financial liquidity—on capital expenditure deviations, primarily grounded in Financial Condition Theory and Public Budget Theory. The second chapter investigates the role of political factors, including the electoral cycle, party ideology, electoral competitiveness, and mayoral reelection, in light of Public Choice Theory and Political Budget Cycles Theory. Methodologically, the research adopts a quantitative, observational, and longitudinal approach, employing econometric models with panel data applied to Brazilian municipalities over the analyzed period. Fiscal and accounting information were obtained from the Brazilian Public Sector Accounting and Fiscal Information System (SICONFI), while socioeconomic and demographic data were collected from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and political variables were obtained from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The results indicate the existence of temporal persistence in capital expenditure deviations, suggesting that patterns of budget execution tend to repeat over time. Furthermore, economic factors—particularly municipal fiscal autonomy—exert a significant influence on the execution of capital expenditures, indicating that municipalities with greater capacity to generate their own revenues tend to exhibit lower relative underexecution of public investments. In addition, the findings reveal that political factors, especially electoral periods, are associated with changes in the behavior of budget execution, suggesting the presence of strategic incentives among public managers. It is therefore concluded that deviations in the execution of capital expenditures are not determined exclusively by technical or financial factors, but also by institutional and political elements that influence the decision-making process in the public sector. The study contributes to the advancement of the literature on fiscal management, public governance, and budget execution at the municipal level, while also providing insights for improving planning, control, and financial management practices in public administration.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - ***.122.311-** - JOSIMAR PIRES DA SILVA - NÃO INFORMADO
Externo à Instituição - RAFAEL MARTINS NORILLER - UFGD
Interno - 2814007 - RENATO HENRIQUE GURGEL MOTA