EFFECTS OF MANAGEMENT PRACTICES IN THE BUDGET PROCESS ON THE FISCAL RESULTS OF BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES
Public budget, theories of the budget process,
government financial condition
The management practices of the budget process constitute a set of decision measures adopted by managers to prepare and execute the public budget. According to the theory of government financial condition, management practices related to the public budget, as elements of the organizational factor, are appropriate responses to changes in environmental conditions aiming to maintain the financial condition of governments in a stable situation. That said, the present research aims to analyze the effects of managerial practices in the budget process on the financial condition, more specifically with regard to the results of budget execution in Brazilian municipalities, covering the period between 2015 and 2022. The theoretical foundation for this dissertation was based on the Theory of Financial Condition as the main anchor and some theories of the budgeting process, namely: Incremental Theory, Serial Judgment Theory, Cultural Budget Theory, Budgetary Constraint Management Theory, Multiple Flows Theory, Punctuated Equilibrium Theory and Theory of Budgetary Conflicts, the last three of which are for expository purposes only. The sample is made up of 5.570 Brazilian municipalities measured through the population stratified by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) in 2019, with an analysis period between 2015 and 2022. To achieve the proposed objective, the regression method was applied in panel called the Generalized Method of Moments System GMM-Sys, robust to endogeneity, GMM-Sys heteroscedasticity and which does not assume normality in the distribution of variables, using the One-Step robustness method for standard errors. The results showed that the result of budget execution has a strong link with the variables forecasting capacity, level of budget restraints and volume of budget changes, showing that as the municipality improves its budget forecasting capacity, it carries out budget restraints at the appropriate time, and promotes specific changes to your budget, there is a significant gain in your budget solvency.