MARKET TIMING AND VALUE CREATION FOR THE SHAREHOLDER UNDER THE PERSPECTIVE OF CASH HOLDING
Market Timing. Cash Holding. Value Creation.
This research aimed to investigate the relationship between cash holding and value creation for shareholders of companies that practice market timing in the Brazilian stock market. The study sample consisted of 108 non-financial companies classified in [B]³ that carried out an IPO between 2004 and 2017, segregated into two groups, market timers and non-timers . In total, 202 IPO's occurred during the delimited period, in addition, the cash behavior was analyzed during the eight quarters following the IPO's, resulting in 864 observations. To achieve the objective, two econometric models were proposed, one for each formulated hypothesis, and the data analysis method used was a dynamic panel regression with one-stage GMM-Sys estimators (BLUNDELL; BOND, 1998). The financial data, necessary for the calculation of the variables that made up the econometric models, were collected using the Thomson Reuters Eikon® database. The evidence from the estimation of Model I confirmed the first hypothesis, that is: market timers hold more cash than non-timers. In turn, the evidence from the estimation of Model II rejected the second hypothesis, that is: there is no positive relationship between cash holding and value creation for shareholders of market timercompanies. Thus, despite hold more cash than non-timers, companies that practice market timing in the Brazilian stock market showed a reduction in the value created for shareholders. It is possible to infer that this result derives from the high opportunity cost of idle cash, since, as market timing is an opportunistic practice, managers do not have an immediate destination for the constituted resource. Furthermore, in light of cash holding, the result obtained can be explained by the agency reason (JENSEN; MECKLING, 1976). The findings of this study suggest that market timing is not successful as a financial policy of value creation, furthermore, corroborate the work of Babenko, Tserlukevich and Wan (2020), whose conclusion is that market timing increases stock prices at the expense shareholders.