PREVISÃO DE ANALISTAS E GERENCIAMENTO DE RESULTADOS
Accounting information, forecasting analysts, earnings management.
Financial analysts are important inducing agents of capital market efficiency. Analysts reports are one of the main sources of information used by investors to form their own expectations about the company's profits. Previous studies provide evidence that managers have incentives to reach and / or exceed the profit expected by analysts and indicate that the companies wich meet analysts' profit expectations may be managing their results to that end. Thus, this study aims to identify empirically, which earnings management strategy, or strategies, are used to achieve or exceed the results targets set in the consensus forecasts of financial analysts by Brazilian companies listed on the BM&FBovespa, in the period from 2011 to 2015. For this purpose, earnings management levels will be estimated both for operational decisions through Roychowdhury model (2006), and through discretionary accruals by Paul model (2007). The accuracy of the forecast of analysts will be estimated by the methodology proposed by Martinez (2004) that identifies the forecast error and, hence; the surprise profit. In order to achiere the objective of this research, the method of instrumental variables (2SLS) in panel data will be used.