Decision support model for decommissioning or life extension of onshore wind farms
Wind Energy; Onshore Wind Farm; End of Life Cycle; Systematic Review; PRISMA; Decommissioning; Repowering; Retrofit.
The increase in the number of onshore wind farms reaching the end of their useful life in different parts of the world makes the process of decision making to define the future of the farm a challenge for owners. The present thesis aims to develop a decision-making model regarding the extension of the useful life or deactivation of onshore wind farms. The research method includes four stages: 1) construction of the state of the art based on theoretical research through a theoretical foundation and a systematic review of the literature using the PRISMA protocol based on articles in the Scopus, Web of Science and EMBASE databases to identify the factors and variables that influence the decision-making process at the end of the life cycle of onshore wind farms, 2) development of the conceptual model, 3) field research of the survey type to identify the main actions of managers of wind farms in operation regarding the extension of the useful life or deactivation, and 4) field research through cases with wind farm managers to validate the decision model identified in the literature. Considerations and suggestions of experts and researchers were used to validate the conceptual model (4th stage). As a result, the conceptual model presents eleven possible alternatives inserted in two scenarios: the deactivation and completion of operational activities and the extension of useful life of the farm. The factors and variables that influence the decision-making process are systematized and grouped into the following categories: external factors [national energy guidelines (national aspects), public policies and regulatory aspects, logistical and infrastructural aspects, and technological development in the sector] and internal factors (economic-financial aspects, operational aspects, environmental aspects, regional aspects, and human resources). The main factors identified are operation and maintenance costs (OPEX), layout review and wake effect and technological evolution. In addition to the theoretical model, the results showed a global scenario of few academic publications on the topic and an unequal number of empirical studies (based on experiences) with real decisions taken and supported versus total number of studies. They also point to research gaps on the theme, providing insights for prospective research, such as, for example, further studies on other experiences, empirical studies, periodic review of planning for the growth of the electrical matrix considering the impact of decisions for deactivation and extension of the operational life of projects, building partnerships between universities and investor groups for application and validation with practical integration in wind farms and development of an specialized system to support decision making.