Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: IARYTHSSA DUARTE DE ARAÚJO

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : IARYTHSSA DUARTE DE ARAÚJO
DATE: 23/08/2024
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: Sala de Seminários da Estatística
TITLE:

Modeling extreme precipitation events in the driest region of the Northeastern semi-arid
area using the Zero-Inflated Generalized Extreme Value Distribution.

KEY WORDS:

Brazilian Semiarid Region; Extreme events; Zero-Inflated Generalized Extreme
Value.

PAGES: 50
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Probabilidade e Estatística
SUMMARY:

The Semi-Arid region of Brazil (SAB) is renowned for its irregular rainfall patterns and
high evapotranspiration rates, leading to water scarcity. Additionally, the region is inherently
prone to extreme rainfall events, which can result in significant socio-natural disasters. Over
the years, several models have been developed to simulate extreme precipitation events.
However, these models are underutilized in the SAB due to a lack of detailed data and
methodologies tailored to local specifics. This study explores the modeling of these extreme
precipitation events in the semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil using the Zero-Inflated

Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (ZIGEV). The methodological approach employs
Bayesian inference, allowing for the incorporation of uncertainties and prior information in
estimating the ZIGEV model parameters. The analysis focuses on a sub-region within the SAB
characterized by extremely low annual precipitation values and high susceptibility to adverse
climatic events. Daily precipitation data will be utilized to calibrate the model and assess the
return levels of extreme events. It is anticipated that the application of the ZIGEV model will
provide a deeper understanding of the occurrence patterns and intensity of these events,
thereby aiding in water resource management and the development of disaster mitigation
strategies in the semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Interno - 3010614 - ELIARDO GUIMARAES DA COSTA
Interno - 1781198 - FIDEL ERNESTO CASTRO MORALES
Presidente - 2612836 - FRANCISCO MOISES CANDIDO DE MEDEIROS