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Dissertations |
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1
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FREDNA MARTA DA COSTA MORAIS CARVALHO
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Regional differentials in risk behaviors for non-communicable chronic diseases and associated factors in the Brazilian adult population in 2019
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Advisor : JOSE VILTON COSTA
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COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
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JOSE VILTON COSTA
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KARINA CARDOSO MEIRA
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PRISCILA MARIA STOLSES BERGAMO FRANCISCO
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Data: Mar 20, 2024
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Show Abstract
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Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs), such as cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus, represent a significant challenge to global health. In 2019, these diseases were responsible for 738,371 deaths in Brazil, of which 41.8% occurred prematurely. NCDs are influenced by several risk factors, which can be classified as non-modifiable, such as sex, age, and genetics, or modifiable, including smoking, physical inactivity, excessive alcohol consumption, and an unhealthy diet, characterized by inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables. In this context, the aim of this study is to analyze the regional differences in risk behaviors related to NCDs and the factors associated with these behaviors in the Brazilian population aged 30 to 69, in 2019. The choice of this age group is justified because it is aligned with the focus of the Strategic Action Plan for the Control of NCDs and because it represents a productive phase of life, in which premature deaths have a significant impact on public health and socioeconomic development. Data from the 2019 National Health Survey were analyzed, considering the following dependent variables: smoking, physical inactivity, excessive alcohol consumption, and inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables. The independent variables consisted of a set of sociodemographic and health characteristics of the target population. Poisson regression models with robust variance were applied to explore the associations between behavioral risk factors and independent variables, estimating crude and adjusted prevalence ratios, along with their respective 95% confidence intervals.
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2
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LUANA DAMASCENO DINIZ
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AGING AND CARE: WHAT ARE THE EFFECTS OF POPULATION CHANGE FOR THE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF UNPAID CARE WORK IN BRAZIL?
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Advisor : LUANA JUNQUEIRA DIAS MYRRHA
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COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
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LUANA JUNQUEIRA DIAS MYRRHA
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JORDANA CRISTINA DE JESUS
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SILVANA NUNES DE QUEIROZ
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FELÍCIA SILVA PICANÇO
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Data: Jul 5, 2024
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Show Abstract
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Care work is understood as the actions carried out in order to meet the basic needs related to life and household maintenance. In this way, it is understood that all people are consumers of care work, but the responsibility for producing these activities has historically fallen to women. Understanding that the task also expresses an interdependence between generations, it is expected that this will be impacted by the demographic transition process, which promotes population growth and a transformation of the age structure, with a reduction in the proportional participation of children and an increase in the participation of the elderly. The aim of this study is to measure the effects of different demographic regimes on the production and consumption of unpaid care work for the total Brazilian population in 2015. The study makes use of estimates made by Jesus (in press), based on the PNAD (2015), of the unpaid production and consumption time that men and women dedicated to domestic chores and care. In order to capture the effect of population change, the study applied the number of people by age and sex, as well as the age structures of the Brazilian population of 1970 (young), 2022 (adult) and that projected by the IBGE for 2060 (elderly) to the 2015 context, using the direct standardization technique. This exercise revealed the following effects: i) population growth and aging cause consumption to exceed production, both concentrated in older age groups; ii) production peaks are related to the age patterns of motherhood and marriage, which vary according to the change in the age structure; iii) in monetary terms, if this practice were paid for and had its production included in the calculation of national accounts, in a population of the same size as in 2015, with only the age structure varying, the 2015 GDP would be increased by 7.6% in the young age bracket and 10.4% in the adult and elderly age brackets. Although consumption increases with ageing, the proportional decrease in adults has an impact on production, demonstrating the urgency of rethinking the social structure that maintains this conjecture, based on initiatives that promote equity and the sustainability of care.
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3
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ANDRELINO DA SILVA
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Sociodemographic profile of foreigners (immigrants) in the province of Rio Grande do Norte in the 1872 census.
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Advisor : RICARDO OJIMA
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COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
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MAISA FALEIROS DA CUNHA
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RICARDO OJIMA
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SILVANA NUNES DE QUEIROZ
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Data: Aug 22, 2024
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Show Abstract
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Migration is one of the most difficult components of demographics to analyze due to the complexity with which it occurs. This difficulty becomes greater when analyzing a past migration process where the available information is limited or insufficient. This work seeks, through in-depth research, to present the sociodemographic characteristics of foreigners (immigrants) present in the province of Rio Grande do Norte in the 1872 census. Based on historical demography, it analyzes the first Brazilian demographic census with its main variables where compile information that can predict the characteristics of foreigners present in the province in question, which is one of the 20 provinces that make up Brazilian territory. To this end, the following variables were researched: sex, age, professions, religion, education, marital status and status as free or slaves. Although not all of these variables directly address foreigners, it was necessary to analyze them to have a better understanding of the general picture of the province's population. The present work used as its main documentary source the general census of the Brazilian Empire of 1872, acquired through the IBGE database, where the files relating to the 1872 census for all provinces of Brazil are digitized. In addition to the population approach, a spatial approach was necessary, carried out through a historical and geographical analysis of the divisions of the municipalities of Rio Grande do Norte and using the QGIS software, to recreate the possible territorial dimension of each parish registered in the province and in which of them the foreigners and how many of them. The work was concerned with enumerating both the native and foreign population, classifying them by quantity and nationalities and made a quantitative comparison of foreigners present in the other provinces of the Northeast, as well as people from other provinces of Brazil present in Rio Grande do Norte. The work used migration measures to define the percentage of foreigners (immigrants) and understand the migratory dynamics of the province, measures such as migration balance, gross migration rate, net migration rate and the migration efficiency index. The investigation showed as a result that the foreigners present in the province of Rio Grande do Norte were composed, for the most part, of men of African origins as slaves, secondly of Africans as free and finally of Europeans and South Africans. Americans and were found more in the interior parishes.
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4
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KAREN RAQUEL FERREIRA DO NASCIMENTO
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Homicides in Brazilian women and the covid-19 pandemic in the context of anti-gender policy in the Bolsonaro government
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Advisor : KARINA CARDOSO MEIRA
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COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
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RAFAEL TAVARES JOMAR
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GLAUBER WEDER DOS SANTOS SILVA
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KARINA CARDOSO MEIRA
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LUANA JUNQUEIRA DIAS MYRRHA
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Data: Sep 17, 2024
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Show Abstract
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In situations of economic, health, and military crises, there is an observed increase in violence against women in all its forms: psychological, physical, economic, sexual, and femicide. Between 2020 and 2022, Brazil faced the COVID-19 pandemic amid the far-right government of former President Jair Messias Bolsonaro and his anti-gender political agenda. In this context, the present study aims to analyze the impact of the pandemic against the backdrop of Bolsonaro's government's gender antipolitics on the temporal trend of female homicides in Brazil and its regions between 2017 and 2022. To achieve this, we conducted an ecological time-series study, examining the behavior of monthly female homicide rates in the periods before (January 2017 to February 2020) and after (March 2020 to December 2022) the first diagnosed case of COVID-19 in Brazil. We employed an interrupted time-series analysis (level and slope change) to assess this impact. A quasi-Poisson regression model was applied, considering the presence of seasonality and autocorrelation of residuals. In interrupted time-series analysis, the event whose impact we seek to evaluate is referred to as an intervention; in this study, the intervention is the COVID-19 pandemic within the context of Bolsonaro’s government's gender antipolitics, and the outcome is the monthly female homicide rates from 2017 to 2022. The highest average monthly female homicide rates per one hundred thousand women were observed in the North (0.78) and Northeast (0.70) regions, while the lowest were recorded in the Southeast (0.30) and South (0.38). Across all regions, age groups, and locations of occurrence (public spaces and homes), a reduction in the average monthly homicide rate was noted during the pandemic months compared to the pre-pandemic period (p<0.05). The effect of the pandemic, within the context of Bolsonaro’s government’s gender antipolitics, led to significant changes in the level and trend of monthly female homicide rates in Brazil and the Northeast region (p<0.05). Following the intervention, these areas experienced an abrupt increase in monthly homicide rates, followed by a progressive reduction. In Brazil, the initial increase was approximately 7.8%, with a long-term reduction effect of 0.5%. In the Northeast, the pandemic led to a 19.3% short-term increase in rates and a long-term reduction of 0.6% (RR=0.994). In the Southeast, South, and Midwest, the intervention resulted only in trend changes, with reductions of 0.6%, 0.2%, and 0.6%, respectively. Similar results were observed in homicides by firearms, stabbings, and cases occurring at home. The findings of this study indicate an immediate increase in female homicide rates in Brazil, particularly in the Northeast, followed by a progressive reduction in all localities. This continuous decrease in homicide rates may be related to the ongoing reduction observed after the peak incidence between 2017 and 2019.
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5
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JOÃO VICTOR ROCHA DE QUEIROZ
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THE URGENCY IN REVIEW THE MUNICIPAL PARTICIPATION FUND IN THE LIGHT OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN BRAZIL
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Advisor : JORDANA CRISTINA DE JESUS
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COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
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JORDANA CRISTINA DE JESUS
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RICARDO OJIMA
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SILVANA NUNES DE QUEIROZ
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WALDECY RODRIGUES
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Data: Sep 30, 2024
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Show Abstract
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Intergovernmental transfers enable the provision of public services by subnational entities that, in many cases, have high financial dependence, especially with regard to municipalities. In this scenario, the volume of resources from the Municipal Participation Fund stands out as it exceeds that of other transfers in the country and is highly representative of municipal budgets. The main criterion for distributing the Municipal Participation Fund is population size, which causes a number of problems before the lack of factors to reflect the need for public investment. In this discussion, the incorporation of other indicators is reinforced, however the scenario of structural changes in the Brazilian population, caused by the demographic transition, has not become a government or research agenda. Thus, it is observed that the change in the age structure and the rate of population growth is in disagreement with the current criteria for distributing resources, which portrays the expectation of a demographic explosion, like Malthusian thinking. Therefore, the demand for fundraising would be proportionally related to the size of a population, although this relationship does not reflect the existing demand, given that the supply of public services and the amount of resources is also influenced by other factors, such as the age structure of the population. In light of this, the aim of this research is to analyze the direct and indirect effects of the demographic transition on the distribution of the Municipal Participation Fund. To this end, were used population data from the 2000, 2010 and 2022 Demographic Censuses and municipal projections up to 2030, prepared by the Laboratory of Population Estimates and Projections. In addition, the study used financial data for the municipalities from the National Treasury Secretariat for the years 2000, 2010 and 2022. The analysis shows that, although there were loopholes in the regulations for structural reformulations, after decades of changes to the legislation regulating the Fund, there were only palliative modifications. Even in the face of the intensification of the demographic transition, marked by population aging and population decline, which has had direct and indirect effects on the management of Municipal Participation Fund resources. From the above, it is clear an urgent to reformulate the distribution criteria, to take into account the imminent increase in the dependent population and forms of state action that are consistent with local particularities.
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Thesis |
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1
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PRISCILA DE SOUZA SILVA
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THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SEXUAL ORIENTATION OF ADULTS AND THE LABOR MARKET IN BRAZIL: AN ANALYSIS OF OCCUPATION PREVALENCE, ASSOCIATED FACTORS, DIFFERENTIALS BY INCOME AND INTERSECTIONALITY OF SEX AND RACE/COLOR
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Advisor : LUANA JUNQUEIRA DIAS MYRRHA
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COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
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FÁBIO LÚCIO RODRIGUES
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GLAUCIA DOS SANTOS MARCONDES
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KARINA CARDOSO MEIRA
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LUANA JUNQUEIRA DIAS MYRRHA
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SAMUEL ARAUJO GOMES
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Data: Feb 26, 2024
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Show Abstract
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Despite social and institutional advances in defense of sexual and gender diversity in Brazil, in recent years, we have experienced the strengthening of hate speech, the reproduction of conservative “values”, discriminatory and prejudiced practices. At this juncture, it is observed that the structural inequalities that remain latent in our society, with the overlapping of markers of difference, can generate multiple inequities in the job market, especially when linked to people's sexual orientation. Based on data from the 2019 National Health Survey, the main objective of this thesis is to analyze the prevalence of occupation and associated factors in adults (aged 18 or over) selected to answer the question sexual orientation, also considering possible differentials by income and the intersectionality of sex and race/color. To obtain estimates of occupation prevalence, Poisson Regression models with robust variance were used. The results showed that the chances of employment in the Brazilian job market are reduced for people who declared themselves as homosexuals, bisexuals, with another orientation, who did not know and for those who refused to answer, when compared to heterosexual people. In the income models, the estimates show that the chances of employment are lower for people who did not respond heterosexual, regardless of the per capita household income range. In turn, through the intersectionality of sex and race/color, it was possible to identify that, while the fact of being homosexual reduces the chances of employment for men regardless of their race/color, for white and non-white homosexual women the chances of being busy increases. However, for bisexual people, with another sexual orientation, who did not know and those who refused to answer, the findings show a reduction in the chances of employment, regardless of the intersection of sex and race/color. The job market is still an environment heavily influenced by conservative norms and “values”, and the lower chances of employment for people with non-normative orientations are probably due to the effect of discrimination.
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2
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PAULO VICTOR MACIEL DA COSTA
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STRENGTHENING ROOTS: POPULATION (I)MOBILITY AND RESILIENCE IN THE NORTHEAST SEMI-ARID
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Advisor : RICARDO OJIMA
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COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
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JÁRVIS CAMPOS
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RICARDO OJIMA
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SILVANA NUNES DE QUEIROZ
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FLÁVIA MARIA GALIZONI
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PAULO DE MARTINO JANNUZZI
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Data: May 8, 2024
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Show Abstract
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Although the Northeast is a region where there is still a significant loss of population, it also records the largest volume of 'never migrants', especially in the interior municipalities. According to the 2010 Demographic Census, around 10 million people living in the Northern Semiarid region, equivalent to 70.3% of the total population, had never undertaken migration from or inside the region. This shows that immobility in the Semiarid region is greater than one might imagine, which may demonstrate that the ability to migrate is not available to everyone, as it requires a minimum level of human, social and physical capital, but may also reflect a structure of resilience developed in the place of birth. The first explanation tends towards the perspective of vulnerability of a population that does not migrate despite being exposed to risks, configuring a “trapped population”. The other, on the other hand, tends towards the perspective that other adaptation strategies may be more important in relation to migration. In this sense, elements such as supplementing family income and water security, whether for consumption or production, can jointly play the role of making the population resilient, especially those who live in the countryside, where conditions are more arid, not only from an environmental perspective, but also from a socioeconomic perspective. The role that institutions play is essential to this resilience. Adaptive management on their part must consider both the social and ecological focus, aspects that, in the semi-arid context, are identified in the Cisterns Program, a global reference in the search for increasing water and food security, in addition to low impact on ecosystem. Given this, the question arises: how does resilience contribute to immobility in the Northern Semiarid? More specifically, it is worth asking: is population immobility related to access to cisterns? Are individual and family issues, linked to the life cycle, and institutional issues related to the immobility of country people? What is the impact of the Cisterns Program along with other social programs on the resilience of country people? In addition to the bibliography researched, to help answer these questions, it was used cross-sectional databases, such as the Demographic Censuses (2000 and 2010), and longitudinal databases, such as the CIDACS Cohort of 100 Million Brazilians (Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health) of Fiocruz Bahia. These questions guided the essays that make up this thesis and support the view that the backlands are not only vulnerable, but also resilient. Given his experience of working in the countryside, “o sertanejo é, antes de tudo, um forte”, but he continues to need social policies that enhance his strength, in the face of social disadvantages that remain, as well as insecurities that become pronounced with climate change.
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3
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ALBERTO ALEXANDRE LIMA DE ALMEIDA
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FAILURE AND DROPOUTS IN HIGH SCHOOL AT INSTITO FEDERAL DE EDUCAÇÃO DO RIO GRANDE DO NORTE: IMPLICATIONS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AMONG QUOTA AND NON-QUOTA STUDENTS
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Advisor : LUCIANA CONCEICAO DE LIMA
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COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
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LUCIANA CONCEICAO DE LIMA
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MOISES ALBERTO CALLE AGUIRRE
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SANDRA CRISTINA GOMES
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DYANE BRITO REIS
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FLAVIA PEREIRA XAVIER
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Data: Jun 28, 2024
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Show Abstract
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The general objective of this thesis was to analyze the implications of the covid-19 pandemic on the failure and dropout of quota and non-quota students from integrated technical high school courses at Instituto Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (IFRN). The specific objectives consisted in identifying the level of failure and evasion of these students and investigating whether this failure and evasion reached similar levels among quota and non-quota students, as well as recognizing the demographic, institutional and socioeconomic factors related to these two phenomena. The importance of this research lies in the fact that the covid-19 pandemic negatively affected Brazilian basic education, especially with regard to performance and retention indicators. And in the context of the demographic transition in the country, the consequences on the formation of human capital of these generations of students could have repercussions on the absorption of this workforce in the medium and long term. The comparison between quota students and non-quota students sought to highlight whether there were significant differences between these two groups, due to circumstances imposed by the covid-19 pandemic in the educational context. Based on the administrative records of Sistema Unificado de Administração Pública (SUAP), it was possible to monitor the academic trajectory of a cohort of 3,284 students from integrated technical courses on 20 campuses in Rio Grande do Norte, from the students' entry in 2019 until the end of the 2022 academic year. To achieve the proposed objectives, quantitative and qualitative methods were used. In the quantitative part of the study, a descriptive analysis of the students' educational and socioeconomic indicators was carried out, aggregated into 10 technological axes. Among the students of the identified cohort of interest, six of them consented to participate in the qualitative research, and semi-structured interviews were carried out with these subjects to understand in greater depth the institutional, demographic and socioeconomic factors related to school failure and dropout in the most critical years of the pandemic. Additionally, to obtain management's perception of remote teaching, semi-structured interviews were conducted with five pedagogues from the CNat campus. In general, from a quantitative point of view, the results showed that the level of failure of quota students was higher than that of non-quota students throughout the researched period, while the level of dropout between the two groups did not show significant disparities. From the point of view of qualitative analysis, it was evident that the difficulties of adapting to emergency remote teaching affected both groups of students, motivated mainly by the difficulty of concentrating in classes, and that the family conditions of quota students contributed to the intensification of this adversity.
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4
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RICARDO TADEU SOARES SANTOS
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EMPLOYEES RECEIVING MINIMUM WAGE IN BRAZIL AND THE REGION NORTHEAST, IN 2012, 2017 AND 2022: PROFILE AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION IN THE CONTEXT OF CRISES
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Advisor : SILVANA NUNES DE QUEIROZ
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COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
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SILVANA NUNES DE QUEIROZ
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JÁRVIS CAMPOS
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LUANA JUNQUEIRA DIAS MYRRHA
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KLÉBER FERNANDES DE OLIVEIRA
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MARIA DE FÁTIMA LAGE GUERRA
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Data: Aug 23, 2024
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Show Abstract
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Between 2012 and 2022, Brazilians were exposed to changes in the economic, political and public health scenario, at collective and individual levels. This thesis' main objective is to analyze the sociodemographic and socioeconomic profile of people employed in the formal and informal labor market who received up to one minimum wage (1SM) in Brazil and the Northeast region, and the spatial distribution in the states and capitals of the Northeast. The time frame covers the years 2012, 2017 and 2022, marked by crises: economic, political and health. The methods chosen were descriptive statistics for Brazil and the Brazilian Northeast (region); and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (AEDE) for the Northeast (states and capitals). The Continuous PNAD microdata, from the years 2012, 2017 and 2022, are the main source of data. It was observed that 31% (2012) and 35% (2022) of employed people received up to 1SM in Brazil, while in the Brazilian Northeast they were 54% and 59%, respectively. 71% (2012 and 2022) of Brazilians and 73% (2012 and 2022) of Northeastern people were in the informal market. In the Brazilian formal market, there is a predominance of women; In the Brazilian Northeast there are more men in both the formal and informal market. In Brazil and the Northeast, young people dominate the formal market until 1MW, and elderly people are more prevalent in the informal market. In the three years under study, there is a predominance of mixed-race workers, followed by white people for both geographic areas (Brazil and Northeast), both in the formal and informal markets. Occupational groups that require lower qualifications reduced their percentage participation in the formal and informal job market in Brazil and the Brazilian Northeast, while qualified workers increased their representation, earning up to 1M. As observed in the education aspect, although workers are qualifying, their income through their main job is going in the opposite direction to what was expected, that is, tending towards precariousness. As for AEDE, hypothesis H0 was confirmed more frequently for black and brown men in the formal and informal market in 2022, suggesting that for these groups there was no significant change in the pattern of spatial distribution; H1 was largely confirmed in several situations, especially for brown and white women, and brown and white men in the informal market, which indicates the consistent presence of clusters of this demographic group employed and earning up to 1MW in states and capitals in the Northeast; H2 was confirmed in several cases, mainly in 2022 for brown and yellow women, and brown and white men in the formal and informal market. The presence and change of clusters suggests that demographic and socioeconomic conditions in the context of national and international crises in the 2010s and early 2020s had different impacts on employed men and women of different races/colors, earning up to 1MW, as discussed in this thesis.
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5
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LEANDRO NAZARENO BASÍLIO JÚNIOR
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Migration of Qualified Brazilians to Portugal: Recent Dynamics and Perspectives for the Migration Project
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Advisor : WILSON FUSCO
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COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
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JORGE DA SILVA MACAÍSTA MALHEIROS
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ROBERTA GUIMARÃES PERES
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ROSANA APARECIDA BAENINGER
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SILVANA NUNES DE QUEIROZ
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WILSON FUSCO
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Data: Aug 26, 2024
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Show Abstract
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Migrations of skilled individuals have been at the center of academic and political debates in different parts of the world. Changes in the international context have contributed to the increasing participation of this population in international migrations. Therefore, in recent decades, transformations in skilled migrations have become evident. This highlights the need to understand how this type of mobility has changed across different countries. The Brazilian community abroad has been growing over the years, and although these departures represent a small portion of Brazil's total population, the stock of the Brazilian community abroad is already larger than the total population of 15 Brazilian states, when compared individually. As skilled migration has been growing more rapidly than low-skilled migration, there is a clear need to study this type of migration. According to the United Nations (2019), the main destinations for Brazilians are countries in the Global North. In Europe, Portugal stands out as the main destination for Brazilians in recent years, with constant repercussions on this flow. With this in mind, this thesis aims to analyze the factors and characteristics that can explain the growth, transformations, and trends of skilled Brazilian migration to Portugal since 2011. For this purpose, both quantitative and qualitative methods were used. As sources of quantitative data, Eurostat databases (2011 to 2021), the Censuses of the National Statistics Institute (INE) of Portugal (2011 and 2021), and data from the Portuguese Immigration and Borders Service (SEF) (2011 to 2021) were used. For the qualitative part, in-depth interviews were conducted with skilled Brazilian migrants residing in Portugal, who were identified through the Snowball Sampling method. The life history method was used for the analysis. Among the results, it is noteworthy that there are low incomes and a lack of absorption by the Brazilian productive structure of part of the skilled population, the highest growth ever identified of skilled Brazilians in the history of Portugal, the faster growth of these people in the Northern municipalities, despite the majority still living in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (AML), the high frequency of family migration among the skilled, fueled by networks, and the emphasis on motivations for the migration project, related to violence in Brazil, the search for a better quality of life in Portugal, the pursuit of professional insertion and development in Portugal, and migration for study purposes.
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6
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MARCELO COELHO DE SÁ
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PROJECTION OF THE POPULATION OF BENEFICIARIES OF MEDICAL-HOSPITAL HEALTH PLANS IN BRAZIL: contribution of population aging and intergenerational pact to the growing spiral of adverse selection of beneficiaries in supplementary health
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Advisor : MARCOS ROBERTO GONZAGA
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COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
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MARCOS ROBERTO GONZAGA
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JOSE VILTON COSTA
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LUANA JUNQUEIRA DIAS MYRRHA
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ANA CAROLINA MAIA
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CÁSSIO MALDONADO TURRA
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Data: Aug 26, 2024
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Show Abstract
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The phenomenon of aging in Brazil is progressing at an accelerated pace, causing effects within a short timeframe that are more pronounced compared to other countries. The typically triangular shape of the population pyramid, with a broad base, is giving way to a demographic profile characteristic of a society undergoing rapid aging. Brazil's supplementary health sector is embedded within this context, having experienced significant aging of its beneficiary base over the past 20 years. In addition to population aging, three specific factors exacerbate the challenges faced by supplementary health: adverse selection, intergenerational pact, and Health Maintenance Value, which act concomitantly and cyclically. Given these factors, the objective of this research is to project the coverage of Brazil's medical-hospital health plans until 2050, assessing the speed, magnitude, and inflection points of this transformation during this period, as well as the relevance of each specific factor, particularly population aging. The hypothesis of this research is that the aging Brazilian population will be the primary driver of an increasing spiral of adverse selection, leading consequently to the aging of supplementary health beneficiaries and a reduction in coverage. To achieve the stated objective, the study focused on key variables influencing plan coverage. This knowledge facilitated the establishment of assumptions and the modeling of a predictive regression equation for coverage. These elements enabled the development of an automated system for projecting health plan coverage, capable of conducting tests under various scenarios and providing long-term estimates. The results indicate a negative outlook, predicting that the current coverage of approximately 25% will decrease to less than 10% by the 2050s. This negative trend is driven by the observation that plan prices are adjusted at a faster rate than household income, primarily due to VCMH. Population aging has played a supporting role in this process, a phenomenon explained by the surprising finding that the intergenerational pact established in 2003 generally did not and will not act as a mechanism to counter adverse selection, as intended. Instead, ANS regulations inadvertently increased intragenerational solidarity among younger and older elderly, while weakening the intergenerational pact. On the other hand, it is crucial to note that experiments conducted in this research demonstrate that if the intergenerational pact were truly functioning, its effects have the potential to bankrupt Brazil's supplementary health sector.
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7
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MARIA DA LUZ GOIS CAMPOS
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ANALYSIS OF THE TIME-SPATIAL DIFFUSION OF COVID-19 IN TWO BRAZILIAN STATES
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Advisor : MOISES ALBERTO CALLE AGUIRRE
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COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
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MOISES ALBERTO CALLE AGUIRRE
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SILVANA NUNES DE QUEIROZ
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JANAINA DA SILVA ALVES
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JOSIVAN RIBEIRO JUSTINO
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WEBER SOARES
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Data: Aug 27, 2024
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Show Abstract
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The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had considerable effects on the global economy and demographics, as well as affecting regions with more vulnerable populations, both socially and in terms of health and sanitation conditions. It is in this context that this study aims to study the spread of COVID-19 infection to the states of Rio Grande do Norte (RN) and Amazonas (AM). Thus, using data from the Public Health Department (SESAP) of the state of Rio Grande do Norte and the IBGE – 2010 Census, we analyzed the incidence of COVID-19 for the period of epidemiological week SE49 (11/23/2020 to 11/29/2020). This is a descriptive, cross-sectional exploratory study, whose empirical basis is to analyze global and local spatial models to model the incidence of COVID-19 in the 167 municipalities of Rio Grande do Norte and their main socioeconomic and demographic determinants. Methodologically, we describe the presence of spatial autocorrelation and cluster formation, using Exploratory Analysis of Spatial Data (AEDE). The presence of spatial heterogeneity for the incidence of COVID-19 in the municipalities of RN was observed, which allows adjusting for the indicators of identification of social vulnerability a Mixed Model of Geographically Weighted Spatial Autoregressive Regression (MGWRSAR). According to the results, it is demonstrated that the coefficients of the study variables presented patterns of associations with socioeconomic and demographic factors, therefore, the Gini index (Gini) and urban concentration (Gurb) are the most relevant factors to explain the spread of the disease to the state of RN. To study the extensive spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the state of Amazonas, we used data from MonitoraCovid-19/Fiocruz and the Amazonas Health Surveillance Foundation (FVS-AM) from March 9, 2020 to April 25, 2021. From a methodological point of view, we used a descriptive experimental and ecological study, using continuous dynamic simulation modeling through dynamic systems, with an emphasis on the behavioral epidemiological model, susceptible, infected, recovered and deaths (SIRD-AM), in addition to statistical analysis. This analysis procedure aims to estimate alternative scenarios, based on the social distancing measures imposed by the state government of Amazonas, as well as hospital capacity, at the population level, to predict deaths and cases by COVID-19. From the perspective of the results, we simulated 5 times more deaths for Amazonas; when we consider hospital capacity, we estimate an excess mortality rate 411% higher than the Brazilian rate for 2021 and the flows I(t), R(t) and D(t) decreased at an average rate of 2.5, in favor of pandemic control policies.
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RENATO TIGRE MARTINS DA COSTA
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Migration Dynamics and Academic Trajectory in Higher Education: The Case of Students at the Universidade da Integracao Internacional da Lusofonia Afro-Brasileira
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Advisor : MOISES ALBERTO CALLE AGUIRRE
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COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
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CARLOS MENDES TAVARES
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CEZAR AUGUSTO CERQUEIRA
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FIDEL ERNESTO CASTRO MORALES
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JOSIVAN RIBEIRO JUSTINO
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MOISES ALBERTO CALLE AGUIRRE
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SILVANA NUNES DE QUEIROZ
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Data: Dec 27, 2024
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Show Abstract
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The analysis of migratory dynamics between academic courses in higher education is crucial for understanding the factors influencing the trajectories of university students and for shaping policies aimed at academic retention and success. These transitions reflect individual choices influenced by interests, social conditions, and institutional structures, carrying significant implications for both students and universities. By examining how students distribute and redistribute themselves across courses, it becomes possible to identify patterns of internal migration, evaluate the attractiveness of various fields of study, and propose strategies to support course completion. This thesis conducts a case study at the Universidade da Integracao Internacional da Lusofonia Afro-Brasileira (UNILAB) to explore inter-course migratory dynamics and academic trajectories. An origin-destination matrix, analogous to those used in migration studies, was constructed to investigate inter-course migration dynamics. Based on the derived indicators, two courses with the highest academic immigration rates and two with the lowest were selected for detailed analysis. The academic trajectories were analyzed using the Multi-State Method, applied to the four selected courses, generating multi-state survival tables to estimate transition probabilities and academic life expectancy. The findings reveal that Nursing and Biological Sciences attract the highest number of students, while Humanities and Physics show lower academic immigration rates. Nursing and Biological Sciences also exhibit the highest transition probabilities, whereas Humanities and Physics have lower transition probabilities. Additionally, academic life expectancy in the analyzed courses exceeds the regular completion time, suggesting factors that prolong students' stay—a finding critical for guiding future research. These results provide valuable insights into the factors driving both student attraction and lower retention rates, contributing to the development of more effective academic support strategies.
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