Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including cancer, represent one of the greatest challenges to global public health. In Brazil, cervical cancer, despite primary prevention through vaccination and secondary prevention through Pap smears, still presents high incidence and mortality rates. Regular screening through Pap smears is essential for early detection of this disease and increased survival. However, adherence to this screening varies significantly across different regions of the country, highlighting the need for a deeper understanding of the factors influencing this practice. This study aimed to identify the factors associated with cervical cancer screening through Pap smears in Brazil among women aged 25 to 64, considering regional inequalities. Using data from the 2019 National Health Survey, statistical analysis was conducted using Poisson regression models with robust variance to explore the associations between Pap smear uptake and independent variables (age, education, income, race/color, residence, and health insurance coverage), estimating crude and adjusted prevalence ratios along with their respective 95% confidence intervals. The results show that younger women, particularly those aged 25 to 34, have the highest rates of not having had a Pap smear, with the North (49.5%) and Midwest (50.8%) regions standing out. The Southeast (38.1%) and South (38.5%) regions have the highest rates of Pap smears performed more than 3 years ago, especially among women aged 55 to 64. In contrast, the North (16.8%) and Midwest (18.7%) regions have the lowest rates of Pap smears performed in the last 3 years, evidencing inequalities in access to preventive health services. Women with higher education (up to 70.4% in the South) and income above 3 minimum wages (up to 73.9% in the South) have the highest prevalence of Pap smears, while those with lower education (46.2% in the Northeast) and income up to 1 minimum wage (48.6% in the Midwest) have the lowest rates. Urban residents (62.1% in the South) have higher rates of screening compared to rural residents (47% in the North and Northeast). Additionally, women with private health insurance (73.2% in the South) have significantly higher prevalence rates than those who rely exclusively on the public health system (49.8% in the Northeast).

This study aimed to project the population of Mozambique’s subnational areas by age and sex from 2022 to 2047, using census data from 2007 and 2017 provided by the National Institute of Statistics (INE). The cohort relations method, based on age distribution and survival ratios, was applied to capture demographic dynamics effectively. Two projection approaches were adopted: one using INE’s published projections and another, termed "own projection," which first projected the provinces based on United Nations estimates before projecting districts. INE’s projections employed the demographic components method. The findings indicate variations in annual population growth across Mozambique’s districts, with some experiencing population losses while others see significant increases. The differences between INE and own projections vary by age group and province, highlighting distinct demographic modeling patterns. For most provinces, own projections estimate a larger population than INE’s over time, suggesting methodological differences in fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions. However, in older age groups, INE's projections indicate a larger population. District-level analyses reveal that in many areas, male population projections exceed female projections, possibly due to differences in migration, mortality, or demographic factors. Conversely, some districts show a predominance of female projections, suggesting region-specific factors influencing demographic trends. By 2047, Mozambique’s population is projected to reach approximately 60,117,595, with an average annual growth rate of 2.47%. The provinces of Maputo, Nampula, and Zambézia are expected to grow the most, while Sofala and Tete will experience moderate increases. At the district level, Matola, Tete, and Nampula will have the highest growth rates (1.28%, 1.25%, and 1.16%, respectively), whereas Massangena, Chimonila, and Chigubo will see the lowest growth (0.93%, 0.74%, and 0.83%). These projections are crucial for demographic planning and the formulation of policies addressing population distribution in Mozambique.

This dissertation analyzes the dynamics of intrastate mobility in Ceará between 1995/2000 and 2005/2010, considering the phases and facets of migration, migrant selectivity, and the effects of municipal population size on flows and income. The study begins with the debate on the processes of expanded metropolization and demetropolization, seeking to understand whether there is population redistribution from the Fortaleza Metropolitan Region (RMF) to inland cities, especially medium-sized ones, and whether metropolitan centrality prevails or both processes coexist. The research uses microdata from the 2000 and 2010 Demographic Censuses (IBGE), organized into origin-destination migration matrices and analyzed using classic indicators of Gross Migration, Net Migration, and the Migration Effectiveness Index. Migratory selectivity is examined using the Heckman model, considering sociodemographic, occupational, and income differential characteristics. The results reveal that intrastate mobility in Ceará reflects the coexistence of two processes: on the one hand, expanded metropolitanization, marked by the population loss of Fortaleza toward neighboring municipalities in the RMF, such as Caucaia and Maracanaú; and, on the other, signs of intrastate demetropolization, evidenced by the emergence of medium-sized inland cities (size 4: Juazeiro do Norte, Crato, Sobral, and Itapipoca), which began to register positive migration balances. This dual dynamic shows that mobility reinforces urban hierarchies but also increases the centrality of intermediate regional hubs. Regarding individual characteristics, consistent selective patterns are observed: a predominance of young, male, mixed-race, and highly educated migrants, although gender and racial inequalities remain structural. In the economic sphere, the hypothesis of positive selectivity is confirmed: migrants earn higher incomes than non-migrants, especially in larger municipalities. In 2000, size 2 and 3 cities already had wage differentials compared to size 1 cities, but in 2005/2010, size 4 municipalities consolidated their prominent position, offering higher salaries and reinforcing their attractiveness. Thus, the economic gains from migration vary according to municipal size: smaller in small municipalities (size 1), intermediate in sizes 2 and 3, and more significant in medium-sized municipalities (size 4). The conclusion is that intrastate mobility in Ceará is not neutral: it combines expanded metropolization and signs of intrastate demetropolization, reproducing urban and social hierarchies, but also revealing the emergence of medium-sized cities as new regional hubs. This evidence contributes to the understanding of territorial reconfigurations and offers support for public policies aimed at reducing regional inequalities and strengthening the state's urban network.

This thesis investigates multidimensional poverty in the northeastern semi-arid region in 2000 and 2010, analyzing its incidence and distribution from different perspectives: individual, family and municipal. To this end, it recalls demographic, historical and socio-economic elements that help to understand the dynamics of poverty in the region. The research is structured in three essays, each focusing on a specific dimension of poverty. The first essay examines the sociodemographic profile of individuals in situations of deprivation, outlining extreme poverty and its transformations over the decade. The second essay analyzes multidimensionally poor family arrangements, identifying structural changes in household compositions and their implications for social vulnerability. The third essay looks at poverty on a municipal scale, investigating its concentration and spatial dispersion, focusing on the size of municipalities and regional heterogeneity. The research uses microdata from the 2000 and 2010 Demographic Censuses as its source, the most comprehensive database on the conditions of the Brazilian population, allowing for detailed analysis at different geographical levels. The methodologies applied include descriptive statistics, spatial analysis and the Alkire-Foster method for measuring multidimensional poverty, offering a broad view of the deprivations present in the region. The results show progress in reducing extreme poverty over the 2000s but also highlight the persistence of structural inequalities that affect individuals, families and municipalities differently. At the individual level, while women showed a more significant reduction in extreme poverty, driven by social policies aimed at the family, brown men living in rural areas remained the most vulnerable group. The analysis of family arrangements reinforced this trend by revealing an increase in female headship among poor households, while racial inequality and lack of access to opportunities continued to limit the social mobility of certain groups. In addition, the growth in single-person households and the slight reduction in nuclear and extended households suggest changes in family structures. The municipal analysis revealed a spatial pattern of poverty, with small and micro-municipalities concentrating the highest rates of multidimensional poverty, while more economically dynamic medium-sized cities had better socio-economic conditions. The findings reinforce that the lack of economic diversification, poor infrastructure and limited access to basic services are determining factors of poverty in more vulnerable municipalities.

This thesis analyzes the spatial dynamics of the age structure and the demographic window of opportunity; and estimates the effects of these structures on the economic performance of the Northern Semiarid (SemSet). It consists of four essays. The first characterizes the evolution of the age structure and of the resulting demographic window, using the Formal Employment Index (IEF), comparing SemSet with Southern Semiarid (SemMer) and the rest of the country (1970-2022). The second maps the spatial dependence of this process between the municipalities of SemSet in 2022, via Local Indicators of Spatial Association, and describes the evolution of formal employment and the IEF, considering a young SemSet and an aging one (2000-2022). The third discusses variations in formal employment and remuneration in the municipalities of SemSet, comparing the contexts of shock (2020) and post-shock of the pandemic (2021) with the previous one (2019). The fourth essay estimates the effect of age structure on GDP per capita (proxy for economic performance), using lag and spatial autoregressive error models for the years 2000, 2010 and 2021. Although with different historical patterns, it was found that in SemSet, SemMer and the rest of the country, both the population growth rates, and the age structure converged. The window in SemSet appeared around 2005, some fifteen years after it was characterized outside the semi-arid region. The evolution of the IEF suggested: i) that the “bonus” materialized moderately until 2014, when it was squandered; ii) the inter-regional differential was maintained: in 2000, the IEF outside the semi-arid region was three times that observed in SemSet (8.79%, compared to 26.46%). In 2021, although smaller, the gap remained the same (17.11%, compared to 37.81%); iii) fragility in the intraregional scale strata; in 2021 it was 12.37% in the young SemSet and 11.80% in the aging one, denoting poor use of the window of opportunity. The third identified a low spatial correlation in the variations of employment and remuneration in both 2020 and 2021. Despite heterogeneity, municipalities with positive formal employment variation rose from 234 (2020) to 618 (2021), indicating recovery. Finally, the fourth essay estimated that a 10% reduction in youth dependency accounted for, on average, 6.79%, 6.76%, and 8.72% of the increase in per capita GDP in 2000, 2010, and 2021, respectively. Conversely, a 10% increase in elderly dependency negatively influenced GDP by 6.27% in 2010 and 8.88% in 2021, compared to 3% in 2000. Simultaneously, a 10% increase in the ratio of the population aged 30–49 to the rest of the working-age population raised GDP by 6.58% in 2000, 10.20% in 2010, and 4.73% in 2021. Thus, these results do not reject the hypothesis that the relationship between demographic and economic dynamics varies over time, place, and circumstances and, therefore, cannot be generalized but should be studied at different scales.

This thesis aimed to identify and compare intra-urban mobility patterns using shared bicycles in four Brazilian urban centers (Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Porto Alegre, and Recife/Jaboatão/Olinda) during the second decade of the 2000s. Bicycle use has grown as an alternative to public transportation, whether for utilitarian, recreational, or work-related purposes, even in the face of structural limitations. In this context, shared bicycle systems emerge as a modern solution for active transportation, with the challenge of achieving intermodal integration in urban centers. The guiding research question was: considering the weaknesses in infrastructure and urban public transportation supply, what are the new mobility patterns and population flows of active transportation users in Brazilian urban centers? Three specific objectives were defined: 1) to analyze mobility patterns during the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods of Covid-19; 2) to identify connections between population characteristics, active mobility, and public transportation; and 3) to assess users’ perceptions regarding safety and well-being. Three hypotheses were tested: the pandemic significantly influenced mobility patterns, altering trip durations and flows; the availability of infrastructure and intermodal connections increases the use of bicycles; and users’ perceptions vary by region. A total of 59.1 million trips recorded by Tembici at 929 stations were analyzed, along with 271 responses from the Bike Barometer survey on cycling practices in three Brazilian regions. For the first objective, descriptive analysis and thematic maps were used with annual, monthly, weekly, and hourly data. For the second, data from the 2022 Census were used to correlate travel patterns with population density, the distribution of establishments, and the presence of public facilities. For the third, descriptive analysis of the Bike Barometer data was conducted, considering safety, comfort, and overall perception. The main results were: 1) a 7% increase in the number of trips after the pandemic, with an initial rise in average trip duration during the crisis, followed by stabilization; 2) a partial influence of household density, establishments, and public transportation on travel patterns; and 3) negative perceptions regarding safety, with reports of traffic conflicts, fear of physical violence, and accidents, with little regional variability. It is concluded that the pandemic temporarily impacted bicycle use, followed by a subsequent recovery. The infrastructure and surroundings of the stations partially influenced travel volume, while density indicators outside urban centers were not decisive for system expansion. Users’ perceptions were relatively homogeneous across regions, highlighting challenges related to safety and well-being. These findings contribute to urban mobility policies, supporting decisions regarding intermodality and the promotion of active transportation.

Many Own Social Security Regimes (RPPS) face deficits that place pressure on public finances and compete with essential sectors such as health and education. These imbalances stem from financial factors (unfunded liabilities, declining revenues) and demographic trends (aging populations, reduced new entries), with heightened concern at the municipal level, where pension benefits often represent a significant portion of local income. Constitutional Amendment No. 103/2019 aimed to curb such pressures but, by expanding subnational autonomy in defining benefit calculations, it opened the door to alternative arrangements and made the debate on plan design essential to avoid poorly calibrated choices.

This study aims to analyze the financial and actuarial impacts of municipal RPPS adopting either the defined benefit (DB) or the variable contribution (VC) modality. It uses microdata from RAIS/2022 to simulate a standard population of 1,000 municipal civil servants and the Sadeprev software, based on Monte Carlo methodology, to track individual payment trajectories over 75 years. Comparing microsimulations of a pure DB plan and a hybrid model (DB = 1 minimum wage + VC), results indicate that plan design has a greater influence on long-term balance than contribution volume: the hybrid model reduces net disbursements and eases cash flow while preserving the minimum floor. Conversely, scenarios with higher contribution rates increase benefits but result in greater volatility and dispersion among individuals.

Alternative population profiles show that younger cohorts and early entrants accumulate more and generate lower actuarial costs, whereas older, female, and low-income groups rely more heavily on DB and compensatory mechanisms. From the perspective of the civil servant, benefits grow with income and capitalization time, but late entrants and individuals with early eligibility tend to receive lower amounts. Thus, by integrating actuarial and social perspectives, the study demonstrates that although the hybrid model may improve solvency, it transfers part of the risk to individuals and may exacerbate inequalities, requiring redistributive adjustments.

Care work is understood as the actions carried out in order to meet the basic needs related to life and household maintenance. In this way, it is understood that all people are consumers of care work, but the responsibility for producing these activities has historically fallen to women. Understanding that the task also expresses an interdependence between generations, it is expected that this will be impacted by the demographic transition process, which promotes population growth and a transformation of the age structure, with a reduction in the proportional participation of children and an increase in the participation of the elderly. The aim of this study is to measure the effects of different demographic regimes on the production and consumption of unpaid care work for the total Brazilian population in 2015. The study makes use of estimates made by Jesus (in press), based on the PNAD (2015), of the unpaid production and consumption time that men and women dedicated to domestic chores and care. In order to capture the effect of population change, the study applied the number of people by age and sex, as well as the age structures of the Brazilian population of 1970 (young), 2022 (adult) and that projected by the IBGE for 2060 (elderly) to the 2015 context, using the direct standardization technique. This exercise revealed the following effects: i) population growth and aging cause consumption to exceed production, both concentrated in older age groups; ii) production peaks are related to the age patterns of motherhood and marriage, which vary according to the change in the age structure; iii) in monetary terms, if this practice were paid for and had its production included in the calculation of national accounts, in a population of the same size as in 2015, with only the age structure varying, the 2015 GDP would be increased by 7.6% in the young age bracket and 10.4% in the adult and elderly age brackets. Although consumption increases with ageing, the proportional decrease in adults has an impact on production, demonstrating the urgency of rethinking the social structure that maintains this conjecture, based on initiatives that promote equity and the sustainability of care.

In situations of economic, health, and military crises, there is an observed increase in violence against women in all its forms: psychological, physical, economic, sexual, and femicide. Between 2020 and 2022, Brazil faced the COVID-19 pandemic amid the far-right government of former President Jair Messias Bolsonaro and his anti-gender political agenda. In this context, the present study aims to analyze the impact of the pandemic against the backdrop of Bolsonaro's government's gender antipolitics on the temporal trend of female homicides in Brazil and its regions between 2017 and 2022. To achieve this, we conducted an ecological time-series study, examining the behavior of monthly female homicide rates in the periods before (January 2017 to February 2020) and after (March 2020 to December 2022) the first diagnosed case of COVID-19 in Brazil. We employed an interrupted time-series analysis (level and slope change) to assess this impact. A quasi-Poisson regression model was applied, considering the presence of seasonality and autocorrelation of residuals. In interrupted time-series analysis, the event whose impact we seek to evaluate is referred to as an intervention; in this study, the intervention is the COVID-19 pandemic within the context of Bolsonaro’s government's gender antipolitics, and the outcome is the monthly female homicide rates from 2017 to 2022. The highest average monthly female homicide rates per one hundred thousand women were observed in the North (0.78) and Northeast (0.70) regions, while the lowest were recorded in the Southeast (0.30) and South (0.38). Across all regions, age groups, and locations of occurrence (public spaces and homes), a reduction in the average monthly homicide rate was noted during the pandemic months compared to the pre-pandemic period (p<0.05). The effect of the pandemic, within the context of Bolsonaro’s government’s gender antipolitics, led to significant changes in the level and trend of monthly female homicide rates in Brazil and the Northeast region (p<0.05). Following the intervention, these areas experienced an abrupt increase in monthly homicide rates, followed by a progressive reduction. In Brazil, the initial increase was approximately 7.8%, with a long-term reduction effect of 0.5%. In the Northeast, the pandemic led to a 19.3% short-term increase in rates and a long-term reduction of 0.6% (RR=0.994). In the Southeast, South, and Midwest, the intervention resulted only in trend changes, with reductions of 0.6%, 0.2%, and 0.6%, respectively. Similar results were observed in homicides by firearms, stabbings, and cases occurring at home. The findings of this study indicate an immediate increase in female homicide rates in Brazil, particularly in the Northeast, followed by a progressive reduction in all localities. This continuous decrease in homicide rates may be related to the ongoing reduction observed after the peak incidence between 2017 and 2019.

Despite social and institutional advances in defense of sexual and gender diversity in Brazil, in recent years, we have experienced the strengthening of hate speech, the reproduction of conservative “values”, discriminatory and prejudiced practices. At this juncture, it is observed that the structural inequalities that remain latent in our society, with the overlapping of markers of difference, can generate multiple inequities in the job market, especially when linked to people's sexual orientation. Based on data from the 2019 National Health Survey, the main objective of this thesis is to analyze the prevalence of occupation and associated factors in adults (aged 18 or over) selected to answer the question sexual orientation, also considering possible differentials by income and the intersectionality of sex and race/color. To obtain estimates of occupation prevalence, Poisson Regression models with robust variance were used. The results showed that the chances of employment in the Brazilian job market are reduced for people who declared themselves as homosexuals, bisexuals, with another orientation, who did not know and for those who refused to answer, when compared to heterosexual people. In the income models, the estimates show that the chances of employment are lower for people who did not respond heterosexual, regardless of the per capita household income range. In turn, through the intersectionality of sex and race/color, it was possible to identify that, while the fact of being homosexual reduces the chances of employment for men regardless of their race/color, for white and non-white homosexual women the chances of being busy increases. However, for bisexual people, with another sexual orientation, who did not know and those who refused to answer, the findings show a reduction in the chances of employment, regardless of the intersection of sex and race/color. The job market is still an environment heavily influenced by conservative norms and “values”, and the lower chances of employment for people with non-normative orientations are probably due to the effect of discrimination.

The general objective of this thesis was to analyze the implications of the covid-19 pandemic on the failure and dropout of quota and non-quota students from integrated technical high school courses at Instituto Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (IFRN). The specific objectives consisted in identifying the level of failure and evasion of these students and investigating whether this failure and evasion reached similar levels among quota and non-quota students, as well as recognizing the demographic, institutional and socioeconomic factors related to these two phenomena. The importance of this research lies in the fact that the covid-19 pandemic negatively affected Brazilian basic education, especially with regard to performance and retention indicators. And in the context of the demographic transition in the country, the consequences on the formation of human capital of these generations of students could have repercussions on the absorption of this workforce in the medium and long term. The comparison between quota students and non-quota students sought to highlight whether there were significant differences between these two groups, due to circumstances imposed by the covid-19 pandemic in the educational context. Based on the administrative records of Sistema Unificado de Administração Pública (SUAP), it was possible to monitor the academic trajectory of a cohort of 3,284 students from integrated technical courses on 20 campuses in Rio Grande do Norte, from the students' entry in 2019 until the end of the 2022 academic year. To achieve the proposed objectives, quantitative and qualitative methods were used. In the quantitative part of the study, a descriptive analysis of the students' educational and socioeconomic indicators was carried out, aggregated into 10 technological axes. Among the students of the identified cohort of interest, six of them consented to participate in the qualitative research, and semi-structured interviews were carried out with these subjects to understand in greater depth the institutional, demographic and socioeconomic factors related to school failure and dropout in the most critical years of the pandemic. Additionally, to obtain management's perception of remote teaching, semi-structured interviews were conducted with five pedagogues from the CNat campus. In general, from a quantitative point of view, the results showed that the level of failure of quota students was higher than that of non-quota students throughout the researched period, while the level of dropout between the two groups did not show significant disparities. From the point of view of qualitative analysis, it was evident that the difficulties of adapting to emergency remote teaching affected both groups of students, motivated mainly by the difficulty of concentrating in classes, and that the family conditions of quota students contributed to the intensification of this adversity.

Migrations of skilled individuals have been at the center of academic and political debates in different parts of the world. Changes in the international context have contributed to the increasing participation of this population in international migrations. Therefore, in recent decades, transformations in skilled migrations have become evident. This highlights the need to understand how this type of mobility has changed across different countries. The Brazilian community abroad has been growing over the years, and although these departures represent a small portion of Brazil's total population, the stock of the Brazilian community abroad is already larger than the total population of 15 Brazilian states, when compared individually. As skilled migration has been growing more rapidly than low-skilled migration, there is a clear need to study this type of migration. According to the United Nations (2019), the main destinations for Brazilians are countries in the Global North. In Europe, Portugal stands out as the main destination for Brazilians in recent years, with constant repercussions on this flow. With this in mind, this thesis aims to analyze the factors and characteristics that can explain the growth, transformations, and trends of skilled Brazilian migration to Portugal since 2011. For this purpose, both quantitative and qualitative methods were used. As sources of quantitative data, Eurostat databases (2011 to 2021), the Censuses of the National Statistics Institute (INE) of Portugal (2011 and 2021), and data from the Portuguese Immigration and Borders Service (SEF) (2011 to 2021) were used. For the qualitative part, in-depth interviews were conducted with skilled Brazilian migrants residing in Portugal, who were identified through the Snowball Sampling method. The life history method was used for the analysis. Among the results, it is noteworthy that there are low incomes and a lack of absorption by the Brazilian productive structure of part of the skilled population, the highest growth ever identified of skilled Brazilians in the history of Portugal, the faster growth of these people in the Northern municipalities, despite the majority still living in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (AML), the high frequency of family migration among the skilled, fueled by networks, and the emphasis on motivations for the migration project, related to violence in Brazil, the search for a better quality of life in Portugal, the pursuit of professional insertion and development in Portugal, and migration for study purposes.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had considerable effects on the global economy and demographics, as well as affecting regions with more vulnerable populations, both socially and in terms of health and sanitation conditions. It is in this context that this study aims to study the spread of COVID-19 infection to the states of Rio Grande do Norte (RN) and Amazonas (AM). Thus, using data from the Public Health Department (SESAP) of the state of Rio Grande do Norte and the IBGE – 2010 Census, we analyzed the incidence of COVID-19 for the period of epidemiological week SE49 (11/23/2020 to 11/29/2020). This is a descriptive, cross-sectional exploratory study, whose empirical basis is to analyze global and local spatial models to model the incidence of COVID-19 in the 167 municipalities of Rio Grande do Norte and their main socioeconomic and demographic determinants. Methodologically, we describe the presence of spatial autocorrelation and cluster formation, using Exploratory Analysis of Spatial Data (AEDE). The presence of spatial heterogeneity for the incidence of COVID-19 in the municipalities of RN was observed, which allows adjusting for the indicators of identification of social vulnerability a Mixed Model of Geographically Weighted Spatial Autoregressive Regression (MGWRSAR). According to the results, it is demonstrated that the coefficients of the study variables presented patterns of associations with socioeconomic and demographic factors, therefore, the Gini index (Gini) and urban concentration (Gurb) are the most relevant factors to explain the spread of the disease to the state of RN. To study the extensive spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the state of Amazonas, we used data from MonitoraCovid-19/Fiocruz and the Amazonas Health Surveillance Foundation (FVS-AM) from March 9, 2020 to April 25, 2021. From a methodological point of view, we used a descriptive experimental and ecological study, using continuous dynamic simulation modeling through dynamic systems, with an emphasis on the behavioral epidemiological model, susceptible, infected, recovered and deaths (SIRD-AM), in addition to statistical analysis. This analysis procedure aims to estimate alternative scenarios, based on the social distancing measures imposed by the state government of Amazonas, as well as hospital capacity, at the population level, to predict deaths and cases by COVID-19. From the perspective of the results, we simulated 5 times more deaths for Amazonas; when we consider hospital capacity, we estimate an excess mortality rate 411% higher than the Brazilian rate for 2021 and the flows I(t), R(t) and D(t) decreased at an average rate of 2.5, in favor of pandemic control policies.

“Drought widows” (Viúvas da Seca) is the term used by Ab’Saber (1999) to characterize the population of women who are widows of living husbands, left behind in migratory flows carried out selectively by gender and working age. This phenomenon became frequent throughout the Northeast region, especially in the northern semi-arid region, a region with the most severe droughts, in which public policies to overcome the water supply crisis were fragmented and emergency, making the economy fragile and incapable of of retaining manpower in the period in which the second Brazilian demographic transition begins. It is proposed to describe the demographic context that caused the occurrence of women "widows of the drought" based on data from the Brazilian Demographic Census of 1970, following through the historical series from 1970 to 2010 the evidence that demonstrates the overcoming of socially established vulnerabilities by through the relations of power and subordination between gender roles, changing the family dynamics due to the female empowerment achieved through public policies that promoted the improvement of human capital due to the value changes widespread during the second demographic transition (LESTHAEGHE AND SURKIN, 1988 ). Taking the population between 15 and 49 years of age as the analysis population, as it covers the reproductive period and coincides with the age at which there is a greater probability of consensual cohabitation, divorce, children and labor migration, with greater male flows. Due to the difficulty in finding questions about migration common to the entire series, we initially sought to use the Sex Ratio as a proxy for male emigration in the northeastern semi-arid region in 1970, comprising 754 municipalities. According to the Foz Group (2021), variations in this indicator require further explanations to understand the composition by sex of the observed population, and sex-selective migration may be one of its causes. The Sex Ratio for the aforementioned region in that year was categorized into three levels, the highest being the one that includes municipalities whose Femininity Ratio was greater than 130 women for each group of 100 men, in this group there are 26 municipalities, of which which 14 are part of the federative unit of Paraíba. Therefore, the great expressiveness of municipalities in Paraíba in this cut, lies in the need for further investigations to understand the occurrence of the phenomenon in Paraíba, using the migratory balance to prove that the differential of the Sex Ratio initially observed was due to male emigration and not to female immigration to the state. Preliminary analyzes reinforce assumptions such as that of Camarano and Abramovay (1999) in which masculinity would be higher in rural areas, as well as the Youth Dependency Ratio would be higher in these areas than in urban areas. In the same way that the urban transition highlighted by the Foz Group (2021), first supported by Zelinsk (1971), cooperates to reduce long-distance migratory flows and greater flows at medium and short distances, with the reurbanization of new migratory spaces, causing productive decentralization, especially after the year 2000 with the policies of interiorization of vocational and higher education. Just as periods of economic crisis encourage return flows, as Dota and Queiroz (2019) present, the data found in the migratory balance confirm the reduction in emigration and the increase in immigration over the historical series. Later, the analyzes of the Sex Ratio and the age structure of the selected municipalities make it possible to observe the effects of the drop in fertility on the region, due to changes in family dynamics from higher levels of declared female headship in the state of Paraíba, Northeast and Brazil.

From 1940 onwards there was a change in Brazil's morbidity and mortality profile, which made the compression-rectangularization process possible to be observed in the country. However, even though the change in the Brazilian morbidity and mortality profile may have facilitated the possible occurrence of this process, premature deaths can act as a brake. Among the main causes of premature deaths worldwide are the so-called external causes, which represent an important portion of deaths. It is explained that external causes are the main causes that make up the demographic phenomenon of the mortality hump. Therefore, the general objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of deaths from external causes in the age period of young adults on the variability of age at death in the Federative Units (UFs) of Brazil in the period determined between 2000 and 2020. The aim is to determine also which causes of death contributed most to excess mortality among young Brazilian adults and calculate measures of location, extension and dimensioning of the estimated mortality humps. As a result, it was observed that the mortality humps estimated for men through the SSE are higher than those estimated for women. Among men, in general, it was observed that for the states of the North and Northeast there was a considerable increase in magnitude measurements between 2010 and 2020. For the states of the Southeast and South, the trend observed was an increase in these measurements between 2000 and 2010. For women, the variations in these measurements presented were smaller. The main causes of death observed among young adult men are violence and traffic accidents. Among women, the main causes of death observed among young adults are violence, traffic accidents and complications during pregnancy, childbirth and the postpartum period. Using age-at-death variability measurements, it was possible to conclude that if the mortality hump component estimated by the SSE were disregarded, the DIM and C50 measurements would suffer reductions, accompanied by increases in the median age at death and deviation. pattern for both sexes and in all years. When analyzing the DP it is seen that there would be an increase in the DP when removing the hump component. Despite this, it can be stated that a decrease in the variability of age at death is observed for Brazil in all states analyzed. The study developed could contribute to the correct direction of public policies in Brazil in the area of health in an attempt to reduce deaths from external causes, especially among young adults.

Social inequality is one of the major drivers of internal migration flows in Brazil. Until the end of the 1970s, these flows were associated with the rapid and concentrated development of the economy, particularly in the Southeast region, which intensified regional inequalities. However, from the 1980s onward, with economic deconcentration and the economic crisis, the flows indicated a new configuration of migration movements. This was characterized by a slowdown in long-distance migration to agricultural frontiers, an increase in return migration, and migrations of medium and short distances. There was a decrease in rural-urban migration and an intensification of urban-urban movements, resulting in a reduction of large flows to the Southeast, primarily originating from the Northeast and Minas Gerais (SALES, BAENINGER, 2000; CUNHA, BAENINGER, 2001; QUEIROZ, DOTA, 2019). The main objective of this study is to identify the direct and indirect effects of return migration in the Northeast region, at the level of the Metropolitan Region or Interior, and by categories of municipalities. Return migration is characterized by the flow of individuals who left their birthplace, lived for some time in another region, and then decided to return to their birthplace. This decision is influenced by various factors associated with the place of origin and the destination (BATISTA; CAMPOS; RIGOTTI, 2017). In addition to the main objective, the study will analyze how the direct and indirect effects of return migration affect demographic dynamics in the Northeast, examining by Metropolitan Region or Interior and by categories of municipalities. It will also analyze the importance of return migration in the immigrant volume of the decade. From the results obtained in this study, it was observed that there is an average older age for returnees in relation to indirect effects and a higher participation of women among those returning to the municipality of birth and those returning to the Northeast region.  

The external causes of morbidity and mortality are configured as a public health problem, and have repercussions on demographic and social dynamics by causing disabilities and deaths. Aiming to analyze the regional differences in mortality from external causes in Brazil in terms of years of life lost and the effects on life expectancy, this is a retrospective study in the large regions of Brazil, with mortality data from all causes and from external causes (chapter XX) of the 10th Revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10), through the Mortality Information System (SIM), by residence, sex and group. Population data were obtained from the 2000, 2010 Censuses from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and 2019 from the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD). Data ignored by sex and age group were distributed proportionally. For mortality data subject to underreporting, correction was performed using the Adjusted Extinct Generations method (GE-Aj). Life tables with single and multiple decrements were calculated, excluding deaths from external causes, to compare life expectancy in each region of Brazil by year and by sex. Years of life lost due to external causes were also estimated. The estimates produced for the years 2000, 2010 and 2019 represented gains in years in life expectancy for all regions when excluding deaths from external causes. For males, the greatest gains occurred in the north and northeast regions in 2010, reaching more than 4 years in gains considering the absence of deaths. For females, the greatest gains occurred in the northern region in 2010, reaching almost 2 years. The Midwest region showed an increase in gains in years for the year 2019. As for Years of Life Lost  

due to the occurrence of deaths from external causes for both males and females, the Southeast region represents the region with the highest number of years lost, but for men it is also the one that showed the greatest decrease among the years of this study. On the opposite side, the northern region, which had a low number of lost years, increased in the years 2010 and 2019. The northeast and central-west regions had an increase for 2010 and remained in 2019. For females, an increase was observed in the years of life lost in all regions from 2000 to 2010 and from 2010 to 2019. The average number of Years of Life Lost had the highest average number for men of 23.69 years in the northern region in 2000 and the lowest in the southern region with loss of life. average number of 19.96 years in 2000. For women, 2010 represented the year with the highest average number of years lost in all regions with the exception of the Southeast region, and on average each dead woman lost 19.02 years of life in northern region in 2000. This study may support intersectoral strategic planning/actions aimed at external causes.

School performance in the context of Brazilian education has become one of the main strategies used in scientific debates to obtain diagnoses regarding the situations faced by the educational system, more specifically on the conduct of public policies for basic education, which include the regular high school grades. The national literature discusses performance through the results of national assessment exams. In this regard, it can be emphasized that in international studies, school performance is diagnosed as an essential tool to address the alignment of constructive policies, because in countries considered developed, they have education as the main resource needed, in terms of the level of education of the population, which represents the potential that the nation must grow. From the literature review, no research was diagnosed that used the School Census with the intention of detailing school performance through the role of teachers' actions and school infrastructure. Therefore, the main objective of this thesis is to analyze the performance of students enrolled in high school as a function of adequate teacher training and school infrastructure, in Brazil, Major Regions and states, between 2016 and 2017. To achieve this proposal, information from the 2016 and 2017 School Censuses of the National Institute of Educational Studies and Research Anísio Teixeira (INEP) was used. In this sense, a methodology is proposed to create indicators that relate to the attributes of students in the initial stages of regular secondary education, adequate teacher training and school infrastructure, which is one of the main contributions of this thesis. After having created the methodological resources of this research, the analytical evidence of the indices points to the main contrasts of the Regions and states. The results indicate that Piauí presented the worst performance in Brazil and the Northeast in the IDA. In the Midwest, the state of Mato Grosso stood out for the significant volume of inadequate teachers, while the Federal District was better in this IFDA condition. In the North region, Acre was the worst in terms of school infrastructure, while in the South region, the state of Rio Grande do Sul stands out with good representation of the EII. Thus, the indices were sufficient to confirm hypotheses regarding the influence of the role of teacher training and school infrastructure, pointing to a positive relationship. In summary, the respective indices have the capacity to offer new methodological procedures for quantitative investigations.

This research approaches the migratory dynamics and data quality of the census migration measurement requirements in Mozambique. The complexity of the census operation makes it susceptible to errors, especially when the data collection process is in paper format. It was in this perspective that an analysis of the consistency of the questions was carried out in order to assess the quality of the data, which also helped in the definition of the geographical unit cut. There are several factors that influence the migratory dynamics such as socioeconomic, natural disasters. The instability that the country experienced between the 1980s and 1990s provided an environment for the increase of migratory movements in the rural-urban sense and to neighboring countries, especially South Africa and Zimbabwe, the latter combined with the search for opportunities for work due to the historical connection between these countries since the end of the 19th century. In the early 1990s, with the end of the war, it was characterized by a massive return of Mozambicans to their areas of origin after about 16 years. In the early 2000s, the country registered an explosion in economic growth, constituting a factor of attraction for migratory opportunities. and international, and the impact of migration on the dynamics of spatial redistribution of the population of Mozambique. For this purpose, the microdata from the 2017 census are used, descriptive analysis of the migratory phenomenon, sociodemographic characteristics of migrants and their selectivities, evaluation of recent and five-year trends in migration, analysis of the spatial redistribution of the population from maps of flows. From the results obtained, it was found that in relation to the quality of the data, only the questions about geographical units that presented inconsistencies in relation to the code of the areas of the disaggregated level below the province. Recent interprovincial internal migrations have shown similar trends to five-year migrations, with the provinces of Maputo and Maputo city receiving the highest volume of immigrants, both from the South region, and Zambezia (Center) and Inhambane (South) the two with the largest volume of emigrants. In relation to international migration, there was a reduction in the volume of international immigrants, which may be associated with issues of insecurity caused by the resurgence of political-military conflict in the period 2013-2019 in the Central region of the country. Regarding return migration, whether internal or international, migrants have an age pattern similar to the classic migration curve, which reveals a greater concentration of migrants in active ages, while in relation to the level of education, migrants with a high level of schooling are the ones that migrate the least, a fact contrary to what is presented in selectivity theories.     

Brazil is simultaneously experiencing an unprecedented health, political, economic, and environmental crisis, resulting in high unemployment rates and a high number of workers in the informal market. In this context, the figure of the Individual Microentrepreneur (MEI), characterized as an autonomous professional with rights and obligations of a legal entity, is growing. However, studies point to a high mortality of the MEI in the country. Therefore, this dissertation has as its main objective to investigate and expand the understanding of the demographic dynamics of the Individual Microentrepreneur (MEI), in the four mesoregions of Rio Grande do Norte, based on their mortality, survival, and to trace the sociodemographic profile of the MEI figure. For this, data provided by SEBRAE/RN and Portal do Empreendedor (Entrepreneur's Portal) were used mainly. The findings of this dissertation show differences between the mesoregions of RN with regards to economic development, characterizing the Eastern and Western mesoregions as the most developed, and the Agreste and Central mesoregions with less economic dynamism. This difference was ratified by the number of companies opening, showing the meso East as the leader in all the years under study, followed by the meso West, Central, and Agreste. Regarding the socio-demographic profile, the results show a higher percentage of MEI in the age bracket between 31 and 40 years, more men, and a predominance of Brazilians in all the mesoregions. Regarding the economic activities performed by MEI, it was possible to see differences in the division between men and women, with specific activities for each sex. Regarding life expectancy, the results were coherent with the development of each mesoregion, since the more prosperous mesoregions present higher life expectancy at age 0, and the less developed ones have lower life expectancy, but present the same upward trajectory until age 14 and stability as of age 15. The study also analyzed the discourse of the MEI to decrease informality and unemployment, however, the data shows that despite the growth in the number of companies, these numbers do not reflect a significant decrease in the unemployment rate and the informality rate in RN. Finally, it is concluded that the MEI is an entrepreneur by necessity, seeking to combat problems with social/regional inequality, unemployment, poverty and abandonment of the role of the State as a generator of jobs, along with the private sector.

The main objective of the present study was to identify trends in the occurrence of traffic accidents with fatal and non-fatal victims caused by the use of alcohol while driving on federal highways in the State of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), from 2007 to 2019. This study is justified due to the importance of demographic studies that comprises a period of important changes in Brazilian traffic legislation, such as the tightening of traffic laws to curb the consumption of alcohol while driving, such as the implementation of the Drinking and Driving Law. The RN is a provocative investigative cut because it is located in one of the three Brazilian regions that have the highest traffic mortality rates. In this study, two hypotheses were tested: 1) in the period from 2007 to 2019 there were no substantial differences between traffic accidents due to alcohol use with fatalities and without fatalities in the State of Rio Grande do Norte; 2) the formation of clusters in the period from 2007 to 2019 occurred due to the centralization of the occurrence of traffic accidents with fatal and non-fatal victims motivated by the consumption of alcoholic beverages in the Metropolitan Region of Natal (RMN). In order to reach the proposed objectives, information from the Federal Highway Police (PRF) was used. This source provides information on accidents at two levels: occurrence and person involved in the accident, and both were used in this study. A database of 2,143 occurrences of traffic accidents motivated by alcohol consumption recorded on federal highways in RN was used, and from the database of people, 4,735 records of those involved in accidents that also had the main cause of alcohol use were analyzed. of alcohol when driving on federal highways in RN. Descriptive analysis was used to test the first hypothesis, and to test the second hypothesis, univariate spatial analysis was used through the application of the Global Moran Index and the Local Moran Index (LISA). In this analysis, the software used were Qgis (version 3.16.3) and Geoda (version 1.18). Among the main results, we found the following profile of fatal victims in accidents whose main cause was the ingestion of alcohol and which partially confirm hypothesis 1: predominantly male (N=309; 78.4%), from the age group of 18 to 29 years old (N=110; 31.2%), of the driver type (N=236; 56.3%) and in stretches of federal highways located in the interior of RN (N=95; 67.4%). Regarding the spatial analysis, despite the low value found for the Local Moran Index for accidents with fatalities or not, the formation of clusters was verified through the Local Moran Index, and in addition to the NMR, rejecting the hypothesis 2. In general, the results found indicate that the prevention and reduction of traffic accidents analyzed depend on public policies operating throughout the territory, and not just in the capital and its surroundings.

Women are in a continuous struggle for the affirmation and protection of their rights and defense of their  space. Proving that there are barriers to accessing the job market and professional growth and the difference  in the treatment of men and women in bonuses and leadership positions is fundamental to taking action. The  demographic view, through this research, makes it possible to study the differences between genders in the  scope of the public service and possible factors and aspects that influence the current indices of professional  development by gender. It is investigated whether there are different impacts for the professional  development of UFRN administrative technical servers: Men and women who have stability and work in a  public and federal university. If there is, for civil servants, the challenge of appointment and maintenance in  leadership or management positions, whether equality in remuneration is present or not.. With access to the  primary data of the UFRN servers and the analysis by methods of descriptive statistics, the sociodemographic  profile and the occupational profile of the administrative technicians were described, and the gender  differences in homogeneous groups and in the occupants of management positions and functions were  weighted. gratified. These results supported the analysis of the structure of the public university, in which the  impersonality in the selection and stability in the career is present, if, even so, gender inequality is observed  during the course of its career, as we have seen in the private area.

In 2003, the Bolsa Família Program (BFP) was created from the monthly union of existing social programs, with the intention of reducing poverty through the transfer of monthly income to families in poverty and extreme poverty in Brazil, through counterparts educational and health. Some possible indirect effects have been the subject of studies other than some indirect studies. In the field of demography, such studies focus on period and not cohort information, due to the difficulty in the availability of longitudinal data. In this sense, this thesis intends to contribute to the debate, through the analysis of longitudinal data from the study of the Cohort of 100 million Brazilians (C100), prepared by the Center for Integration of Data and Knowledge for Health CIDACS. Based on the hypothesis that the PBF has a protective role against school delay even among those who are becoming mothers in adolescence, this study aims to investigate the effect of the PBF on the school delay perceived by teenage mothers at the time of motherhood ( up to 19 years), observing the aspects of their fertility during the period from 2004 to 2015. And with the aim of verifying whether the PBF has any effect after motherhood, this study analyzes the evolution of the schooling of adolescent mothers between the first and second last parturition. This analysis is based on the Northern Semiarid (SemiSet) and occurs in a comparative way with the regional context (Northeast - NE) is Brazilian. For this purpose, the quasi-experimental propensity score matching (PSM) method with Kernel pairing was used to develop models for comparing the effects of the investigated treatment through artificial comparison groups. With the PSM it is possible to identify differences in the treatment effect for the cohort, through exploration subgroups stratified by the information on: receipt of the BVJ; adolescent parturition; maternal age to first child in adolescence. As well as, by variables of the socioeconomic, demographic and management of the BFP in each cut. Among the main results, it was found that, for adolescent mothers, having belonged to BFP beneficiary families, resulted in a lower chance of presenting school delay, compared to those of non-beneficiary families with the same characteristics. This protective effect was even greater in SemiSet when compared to the Northeast region and the Brazilian context. Considering only mothers whose families were participants in the BFP and eligible for the youth variable benefit (JVB), the protective effect more than doubles, regardless of the cut. When stratified by aspects of fertility, the protective effect is greater for those who have more than one child during adolescence. Regarding maternal age at first child, in the SemiSet, the effect among the youngest aged 10-14 years is double that of those aged 15-19 years, the same case for Brazil. In addition, it is found that the socioeconomic context affects coping with school delay.

The Northeast region, for decades, lost considerable population contingents, either due to drought, latifundium, unemployment, social / social networks, exhaustion of productive borders, lack of job opportunities and / or study in the homeland. However, although population losses in the Northeast have cooled in recent decades, the region remains with a significant negative migratory balance. Northeasterners still emigrate, and, in most cases, in search of jobs, better income, opportunities and / or new places where there is a better quality of life. With the changes in the economic, political and social scenario of the regions of origin and destination, as well as technological advances in communication, the decision to migrate started to be subsidized by several factors, in addition to the difficulties of survival and / or social mobility. But the success of emigration depends, in large part, on the characteristics of the labor market in the destination region, which differ by gender and race. In this context, the objective of this dissertation is to analyze, for the year of 2014, the effects of the intersectionality of gender and race on the social mobility of the interregional emigrant originating in the Northeast region (and destined in another large region of the country). For this purpose, the main source of data is the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) 2014, which has a special module on questions about social mobility, in addition to the sociodemographic and migration characteristics. Through descriptive analysis, it was found that emigrants from the Northeast experienced greater upward mobility compared to non-migrants from the Northeast in 2014. However, this movement in the social structure was mostly short-distance. From the logistical models, it can be seen that, the chances of upward mobility are lower for women, regardless of the condition of migration, but with different intensities. Among emigrants, white women were the least likely to have upward mobility and among non-migrants, black women.Additionally, the findings show that for emigrants, the chances of upward mobility are greater among those aged 30 to 34, who have never lived with a spouse or partner, in too much family condition, with up to complete elementary school. , two years of residence in the destination region and black men. As for the non-migrant, the chances of upward social mobility, in 2014, are greater for individuals aged 25 to 29 years, living with a spouse or partner, a reference person, with incomplete superior and more and for white men

Since the beginning of the demographic transition, in the 1960s, the composition of the Brazilian population by age has undergone changes. The demographic changes evidenced in the last decades have led to changes in population groups and, consequently, in the demand for public services that these groups generate. On the other hand, the population of civil servants also ages, which increases the number of civil servants who will become inactive due to eligibility for retirement benefits, disability or death. In view of the above, the present study aimed to estimate the demographic need for hiring municipal public servants in Brazil, for the period from 2020 to 2030, considering both the dynamics of departure of civil servants and the population demand for types of public services municipal level (health, education and others). To this end, data from municipal public servants from the Annual List of Social Information (RAIS, 2018) were used together with data from the Statement of Results of the Actuarial Valuation - DRAA, from the Social Security Secretariat (SPREV, 2020), and from the Municipal base, from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, 2019). The main results are that the need to hire new servers will increase between 2020 and 2030, for all professional categories, in addition to being greater in the Southeast and Northeast regions. The demographic need is greater in the category of others, followed by the categories of education and health. Based on the results obtained, it was concluded that the demographic need for municipal public servants is affected both by the demographic dynamics of the municipalities and by the dynamics of the population of civil servants.

Violence is a material mechanism that has always been present in human society, manifesting itself in a painful, dangerous and unequal way. With regard to Brazil, since the 1980s, homicides are the second leading cause of death in population groups aged 15 to 39 years, especially in males. In order to explain this phenomenon that is so present in the daily life of large urban centers, several fields of knowledge began to point out factors such as poverty, income inequality and the absence of the State, which are crucial for the maintenance of high levels of violence in the country. However, few works discuss the theme from the use of spatially disaggregated information, at the level of geographic coordinates, for analysis in the urban space. Given the context, the work aims to analyze the distribution of CVLI in the intraurban space of Natal/RN in the years 2019 and 2020, in addition to the characteristics and locational pattern of these deaths, taking into account the heterogeneity of the urban space in relation to the sociodemographic characteristics of the population and the dependence on socio-spatial segregation. The choice of analyzing the years 2019 and 2020 takes place in two different contexts: the spatial distribution of CVLIs in a pre-pandemic period and during the pandemic, in order to verify the effects of the pandemic on the phenomenon of violence in Natal/RN , their permanence or changes, either in relation to the spatial distribution of homicides, or in relation to the intensity and profile of the occurrences. The data sources used were the Rio Grande do Norte Violence Observatory, Municipal Department of Environment and Urbanism and the 2010 Demographic Census. After obtaining the data in geospatial format, it was possible to adopt spatial techniques such as distance measurements, Kernel interpolation and spatial autocorrelation, and the results showed the maintenance of violent spaces in the North and West portions of the city, with high percentages of CVLI in these areas due to drug trafficking, mortality among the young population and the strong relationship between these areas. and phenomenon and the areas that present greater socio-spatial vulnerability. However, it was possible to observe some differences in relation to the spatial distribution of CVLIs, and especially in relation to the characteristics of violence observed between 2019 and 2020.

Demographic transition refers to changes in fertility and mortality rates, from high to low levels, and with that there is a change in the age structure of the population. As a result, at the end of this process, there is an older population. But during the demographic transition there are also social changes, especially during the second demographic transition with effects on fertility, for example. The General Social Security System, as it is based on the pay-as-you-go financial system, is sensitive to demographic changes and therefore has to adapt periodically to meet its future obligations related to payments with benefits, such as the death pension, which guarantees an income to the dependents of the insured when he dies, as the class of dependents includes mostly children and spouses, it is expected that changes in fertility, mortality and nuptiality will affect the total expenditure with the granting of this benefit, so this study has for the purpose of estimating the future financial impact on pensions for death granted by the General Social Security System derived from changes in demographic variables. For this, the average burden of dependents generated by the insured person's death was calculated, in which it was found that variations in fertility, mortality and nuptiality modify how the pension expenditure is granted over the insured's ages.

The transposition megaproject, considered one of the largest structural projects that the Federal Government has been executing, is an extension of the “Velho Chico” (São Francisco River ) to mitigate the problems arising from the drought phenomenon especially in the northeastern backwoods. However, this type of enterprise is not only monumental in terms of size, but also in terms of social, economic or environmental impacts. These impacts can affect socio-spatial relations and thus shape new dynamics within the territory, whether spatial or migratory, capable of strongly affecting the population's life and affected spaces. This shows that the pace of population growth is not the only demographic aspect that deserves to be investigated, as population distribution and composition may raise important demographic issues, which may help to understand the persistent vulnerability that emerges in the Northeastern semiarid. However, little has been addressed about the extent of displacement around the theme of megaprojects in Brazil, especially considering the aspects of sociodemographic vulnerability, since this approach is a result of social risks (poverty, hunger, economic depression, social exclusion) aggravated by the demographic risks (such as population distribution and composition) for making it difficult to access assets (human, social and physical capital) necessary for the defense and adaptation of individuals or family groups to social risks. Thus, the main objective of this research is to understand how population mobility, resulting from the transposition work, can interfere with the sociodemographic vulnerability of the urban spaces of the areas of influence of this enterprise in the northeastern backwoods. Methodologically, to measure population mobility, will be used the  last step, for migration, and the sum of daily displacements (work plus study), for pendularity. To measure sociodemographic vulnerability, will be used the vulnerability index developed by Cunha et al. (2006), but with some caveats for some indicators in order to ensure the fidelity of the results to the space to be analyzed. The main data source for both methods will be the 2010 Demographic Census.

Homicides in Brazil represent the first cause of death from external causes since the 1980s. In this scenario, there is a higher risk of death from this group of causes in people living in precarious conditions of infrastructure and social facilities, young (15-29 years), male, black or brown, with low education and little professional qualification. This work aims to analyze the spatial pattern of homicide mortality among men in the five-year age groups of 10 to 29 years, located in the municipalities of the Northeast Region, from 2012 to 2014 and 2015 to 2017, as well as its correlation with socioeconomic and demographic variables. This is an ecological study of spatial analysis, whose population will consist of homicide deaths in young men (10 to 29 years old) that occurred in the municipalities of the Northeast region, from 2012 to 2014 and 2015 to 2017. Death records was extracted from the Mortality Information System of the SUS Informatics Department (SIM / DATASUS). Due to the large proportion of deaths classified as events whose intention is undetermined, generating estimates of underestimated homicide mortality, the present study corrected the deaths according to the methodology proposed by Borges and Cano (2012). Underreporting of deaths, crude mortality rates, specific for age group, were calculated. Then, the rectification of the coverage of deaths was carried out by correction factors resulting from the active search in the study developed by Szwarcwald et al. (2010). In addition to the rates being standardized by the Brazilian male population in 2010 and smoothed by the Empirical Bayseian Estimator. Then, the presence of spatial correlation of mortality rates was analyzed through Local and Global Moran Index. As a result, homicide mortality rates were recorded in young males with an average of 7.8 and a median of 5.8 per 10,000 inhabitants, in the period from 2012 to 2014 and in the following period, average of 10.9 and median of 8.6 per 10,000 inhabitants. The highest rates for this cause were found in the municipality of Simões Filho in the state of BA, with 52.91 per 10,000 inhabitants, in the first three years and in the municipality of Saubara also in Bahia, with 59.14 per 10,000 inhabitants. n addition to the High-Low clusters found in the Northeast Region that portray the internalization and spread of violence, since they characterize high rates in this part with the surroundings with low rates. Finally, this work reinforces the importance of reporting homicide records in order to provide incentives for the elaboration of public policies, in addition to highlighting the fight against violence through intersectoral actions.     

Migrations can be motivated by the desire of people to carry out their life projects, including the need to acquire new knowledge and experiences. In this sense, migrations for the purpose of studying appear as a growing movement, although in Brazil it is still timid when compared to other countries. This study sought to understand why students migrate to Brazil in search of higher education training since Brazil is not a country recognized for attracting international students. There are public policies to encourage migration to study in Brazil that favors the exchange of students to our universities. However, these policies did not have the necessary reach to make Brazil a country with a great power of attraction for international students. This research carried out a descriptive analysis of microdata from the Higher Education Census from 2015 to 2018, presenting the sociodemographic profile of foreign students and the data regarding the insertion of these students in Brazilian higher education. It was found that several factors influence the migration to study in Brazil, in which we highlight diplomatic and cooperation agreements, the linguistic question, the geographical question, historical relations, cultural proximity, the Amnesty Migration Law, the formation of social networks, and human development. Foreign students who migrate in search of study in Brazil encounter difficulties of all kinds, but strive to complete their undergraduate course, since for many people in developing countries the best option to improve their life opportunities is to get out of their hometown (UNDP, 2009). Foreign students who migrate in search of study in Brazilian higher education come from developing countries that have a lower HDI than Brazil, and this is the opportunity to change the course of their lives for many of these students.

The main objective of this work was to analyze the permanence and performance of the cohort of freshmen at UFRN in 2014, divided into quota holders, who used the vacancy reserve mechanism according to Law No. 12,711 / 12 (Quota Law), and not quota holders. To test the hypothesis that there is no difference regarding permanence and performance between quota students and non-quota students, a database was used containing information from 5,633 new students entering the UFRN Central Campus in 2014. The information comes from the OVEU / COMPERVE at UFRN. Propensity Score Matching was used to pair groups of quota holders and non-quota holders. In order to achieve the proposed objectives, and considering the division of students between quota students and non-quota students, an analysis was made on the sociodemographic profile of the freshmen, Survival Analysis to estimate the differentials on the permanence of students over five years, and Non-parametric test to analyze differences in performance between students in both groups. With regard to the main results, no statistically significant differences were found in the performance (p-value = 0.30) and permanence (p-value = 0.67) of quota and non-quota participants when evaluated in general. However, considering the classification of the courses in four different groups, only the one with the highest dropout level (Group 4) showed statistically significant differences in permanence between quota and non-quota students, with advantages for the latter (p-value = 0, 05). These results partially confirm the hypothesis that there are no differences in permanence between quota holders and non-quota holders. As for performance, there was a statistically significant difference between quota students and non-quota students considering the grouping of courses with greater competition and social prestige (Group 1), with a slightly higher average in the performance score for the group of non-quota students (p-value = 0.05). Other characteristics that pointed to statistically significant differences in the measure of performance, and greater for non-quota students, were the entry into biomedical courses (p-value = 0.003) and the statement that they worked when entering university (p-value <0 , 01). These results also partially confirm the hypothesis that there are no differences in performance between quota holders and non-quota holders. In general, the study contributes to the area by pointing out well-defined sociodemographic differences between quota and non-quota students; that evasion was configured as a relevant problem for the entire analyzed cohort, but that in those courses of greater evasion, the socioeconomic origin made the most difference for permanence; that aid for permanence may have contributed decisively to the permanence of quota students; and that it cannot be said that the performance of quota students is lower than that of quota students at least for the total data set.

This dissertation sought to analyze rural fertility differentials by levels of rural development in the microregions of the Northeast region in the year of 2010. Specifically, to quantify the concept of rural development, this study was based on the indices of European origin, more precisely the Development Index OECD, already replicated in Brazil to analyze the presence of different levels of rural development. In order to quantify these concepts and the development of a Rural Development Index (RDI), through the selection of population, demographic, economic and social welfare variables, it is possible to analyze the reproductive behavior, expressed by the rates of fertility at different levels of rural development. The database used in the study was the 2010 Demographic Census. The results suggest that the Northeastern region has an IDR = 0.39, a result that is far from the ideal, which would be close to 1. This classifies the region's rural territories, on average, with low rural development. However, by disaggregating the IDR by microregions, it was estimated that almost 48% of the rural population reside in territories classified as medium-level rural development with rural TFR equal to 2.85 children per woman. Among the microregions considered to be of low rural development, only 6.4% had TFR equal to or less than 2.1 children per woman, the highest proportion of microregions in these conditions being classified as having high rural development. The study found that 34% of the microregions studied resulted in a rural TFR of 2.11 to 2.60 children per woman, the highest proportion found, with a significant number of microregions with rural TFR above 3.1 children per woman (32 %).

The expansion of technical (secondary level) and higher educations in Seridó Potiguar was very important, not only for the improvement of educational levels of the local population, but also for the population’s mobility in that territory, as well as for the daily exchanges of population with other regions. These factors contributed to new perspectives on migration. This subject is gaining increasing importance, being necessary a greater number of studies to understand the new perspectives caused by this new reality. With this in mind, the daily flows of students of secondary and higher educations were traced, as well as flows for working reasons between 2000 and 2010 in order to obtain a visualization of how the displacements have changed. In addition, the same was done for more recent times (2010 and 2017), but only related to the flows of secondary level students and teachers who work in the same level. In this process, the analysis of the evolution of educational levels of Seridó’s population was essential. For this purpose, the IBGE Demographic Census (2000 and 2010) and the School Census (2000 to 2017) and the Census of Higher Education (2000 to 2017) of Inep were the main sources of data. As results, it was found that the number of people who had access to technical (secondary level) and higher educations increased considerably. Furthermore, daily commutes due to work and study also increased, both in absolute and relative terms, however, with important differences. With regard to student flows, the greater diversity of origins and destinations in the results is also highlighted. In brief, the results show an evolution in the integration of the municipalities of Seridó, a factor that contributes to the attraction of population in age of study (secondary and higher education levels).

The brazilian education underwent a period of expansion which coverage of elementary education exceeded 95% in the 1990s. At the other edge of the education system, higher education experienced a substantial expansion from the end of the 1990s and, especially, during 2000s. Although the number of chairs and admission increased, the number of graduates did not proportionately follow this trend. Actually, there is even a record of a decline in the number of graduates. On the other hand, policies to stimulate the growth of the higher education system have supported a commercial notion of education, favoring the private sector – which occupies more than 80% of Brazilian higher education. This issue opens space for the discussion about the existence of a real democratization of higher education or for its massification. The literature suggests that higher education students can be conditioned on the choice of course (access), performance, permanence and promotion (conclusion) regarding their social origin, economic situation, gender and race/color. Thus, cultural and economic capital from belonging to a particular social class can influence the capacity of individuals to limit their freedom of choice and objective possibilities of achieving an educational promotion, such as the defined by the proposal of a democratic education system. In order to support this discussion, the present work has the objective of outlining the sociodemographic profile of the population of students completing higher education courses through the use of ENADE database (2017). Based on the concepts of cultural and economic capital, it is possible to trace the profile of undergraduate students who are graduating from their courses with the Grade of Membership (GoM) method, which calculates their membership in certain profiles and with varying degrees of belonging, according to the logic of fuzzy sets. Among the results, it was noticed that individuals with lesser cultural capital, lower economic capital and, in general, from private higher education institutions have a lower participation as concluding undergraduates while individuals with elevated cultural and economic capital and from public higher education institutions have higher participation as graduates, perform better in ENADE exam and have institutional support (scholarships, grants, opportunities to participate in international activities and so forth). Finally, one hopes to give subsidy to policies to combat educational inequalities.

As for water supply in households led by women without a spouse, they have a higher level of economic vulnerability, as they have lower per capita income than other household arrangements. Thus, it is concluded that the planning of public policies to mitigate the effects of drought on the lives of residents in the Seridó Potiguar region is essential.

The main objective of this dissertation is to analyze the differences in the occupational insertion of migrants and non-migrants who perform the commuting displacement due to work in the Metropolitan Regions of Fortaleza, Recife and Salvador in 2000 and 2010. Besides that, it is sought to measure the volume, to draw the profile and to know the incomes of the commuters of these two groups (migrants and non-migrants). The central hypothesis is that the individuals identified as migrants in these metropoles, and who undertake commuting displacement, have better qualifications and incomes in relation to non-migrants, being better placed in the labor market. For that, the microdata of the 2000 and 2010 Demographic Census of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) are used as the main source of information. The results indicate that in the three metropolitan regions of the Northeast there were an increasing number of individuals performing the pendular mobility, and that these have very similar characteristics among the metropolises. Overall, the group of migrant commuters was younger and had better qualifications and incomes than non-migrants. There was an growth in the number of commuting employees in both groups, with an increase in the number of workers with a formal contract, but the informal rate is higher among migrants. As far as the activity sector is concerned, the majority are inserted in the transformation industry, in the trade and repair of vehicles and in the construction, however the predominance in these sectors is changed from metropolis to metropolis and also by the migratory status.

The present study highlighted maternal religious affiliation as an important factor associated with infant mortality. The main objective of this study was to analyze the relationship between infant mortality and maternal religious affiliation categories for the Northeast Region in 2010. In Brazil, infant and child mortality rates are declining considerably (SZWARCWALD & CASTILHO, 1995; GARCIA & SANTANA, 2011; TEIXEIRA et al, 2016). In addition, the country has undergone significant demographic, economic, social, environmental and cultural transformations, among which, changes in the religious field are also observed (ALVES, CAVENAGHI & BARROS, 2014). In order to reach the proposed objectives, this study used as a source Demographic Census 2010 database and three Poisson regression models with robust variance were applied for infant and child mortality: Model 1 included only the associated factor of interest in this dissertation (maternal religious affiliation). Maternal demographic characteristics (age, color / race, parity and marital status) were added in Model 2, and in Model 3, the economic characteristics of the mother and household were added (levels of schooling, urban/rural household, type of sewage, the existence of piped water in the residence and if someone in the household received benefits from social programs). Among the main results obtained, it is highlighted that maternal religious affiliation was not associated with infant mortality. In the case of child mortality, maternal religion reached statistical significance in Model 1, in which the 'traditional Protestant' (RR = 0.76, p <0.05) and 'Pentecostals' (RR = 0.80; p <0.05) showed protective effects. In Model 2, the category 'traditional Protestant' lost statistical significance, but the group of Pentecostal mothers not only maintained a statistically significant association, but also increased its protective effect (RR = 0.84, p <0.05).  Others results showed deleterious effects of maternal age’s extremes: '10 to 19 years '(RR = 1.38, p <0.05) and '35 years or more' (RR = 1.33 , p <0.05). Also, parity equal three or more children (RR = 1.39, p <0.05), being widowed (RR = 1.64, p <0.10) and residing at home with adequate sanitary sewage (RR= 0.73, p <0.05). In general, the results found for religious affiliation partially corroborate the Wood, Williams & Chijiwa (2007) hypothesis that, over time, Pentecostal mothers would reach.

Recent literature has pointed out that low fertility in Brazil occurred through a combination of several reproductive behaviors. In this regard, the observed heterogeneity in fertility regime (reduction of high fertility, absence of children and fertility around one and two children) has been explained by the social differentials that exist among women. In this sense, the main objective of this study is to analyze the reproductive behavior in the Northeast Region of Brazil in a context of low fertility, considering the socioeconomic and demographic differentials of women aged 20 to 49 between 2000 and 2010. In addition, this study focuses on four groups of women: women without children; with one child; with two children and with three or more children. In order to achieve the proposed objectives, the data sources used were the Demographic Censuses of 2000 and 2010. The methodology consists in a descriptive statistical analysis, capable of relating the information of each variable in the study with the four groups of women, grouped by the number of children that they had until the date of each Census. The results show that, during the analyzed period, there was a significant reduction in the proportion of women with three or more children, followed by a growth in the participation of women without children, as well as with one and two children. This behavior was observed in all Federative Units of the Northeast, however, these changes occurred internally way in the differently. Moreover, there was a significant reduction in the participation of women with children at younger ages, with an increase in ages above 30 years old. However, the main change was the decrease in the participation of women with two children in the 20–34 age bracket, but with growth in the ones above 35 years old. The results suggest that the characteristics that differentiate the women in relation to the number of children are: household situation; total household income per capita; color / race, schooling and marital status. In this context, it is important to highlight the growth of heterogeneous family arrangements in the Northeast, with an increase in the participation of women living together (not formally married, but having a partner) without children. In addition, there is a significant contingent of women without children who have never lived together. The increase in the level of education of female population during the analyzed period was the fact that had most impact in the differentials among women in regard to the total number of children. In brief, the results suggest that the decline in fertility in the Northeast during the analyzed period was due to a combination of different reproductive regimes, due to the social and demographic differentials that exist among women.     

Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) play a key role in the Brazilian economy in generating employment and income for the economically active population in a sustainable way, as well as leveraging the economy. The conception and extinction of these companies has a significant impact on the economy and, especially, on the formalization of the working-age population. This research proposes an analysis of the closed population (migration absence) of the MPEs by cohort (generation) with regard to the constitution (birth) and extinction (death) between 1980 and 2016 in the Rio Grande do Norte state.  Based in the collected data at the Commercial Council do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte, mortality tables were calculated for several generations of companies constituted between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 2016 by size and industry. Differences of level and standard of companies’ mortality / survival were verified by size and industry. Was observed that the increase in the participation of Individual Microentrepreneurs (MEIs) in the total number of incorporated companies, although it has the effect of reducing the number of informal businesses, may have some negative effect on the survival probability of MSEs, including those more consolidated.The results also point to increases in the probability of death of older cohort companies, that is, with greater stability in the business market, and higher levels of mortality in the first years for more recent cohorts. This increase in MSE mortality occurs during the same period in which the demographic dynamics of Rio Grande do Norte favors a greater relative weight of the working-age population, a phenomenon known as demographic bonus. The results raised by this study contribute significantly to the knowledge of the levels and survival patterns of companies in the RN, pointing out possible causes and consequences for the average life time for different types and sizes of enterprises. On the other hand, the study points to the need for more specific and better quality data so that the analyzes serve as subsidies for new ventures.

Studies on mortality differentials by education have a great relevance for the management of public health in Brazil. Given the unequal context of processes of demographic and epidemiological transitions among social strata, the objective of this study is to estimate educational differentials in adult mortality (25-59 years) by regions, sex and age in 2010. The literature indicates that there is an inverse relationship between mortality and schooling, meaning that the higher the schooling the lower is the risk of death. In addition, there is evidence that these gradients persist at all ages. They are larger among men, diminishing with age and their magnitude differ among the country’s regions. Whilst this subject has been discussed in the United States since the 1960s, in Brazil the first works date from the 2000s. This delay is mainly due to the poor quality of the educational variable from the responses on death registered in the Mortality Information System (MIS). In order to search for evidence on these educational gradients, the microdata on death of MIS of 2010 (for deaths) and the microdata of the census 2010 (for population quantities) are the study’s sources of data. Accordingly, the methodological proposal is to make two corrections in the data before proceeding with the estimates of educational differentials in mortality. The first one is the correction of the incompleteness of the variable education through imputation methods. The methods applied are: the multiple imputation and the ABB (Approximate Bayesian Bootstrap). The second one is the correction of underreporting of deaths using average corrections factors of the general population by Federation Unit (FU) to correct only the deaths of lower schooling in each region. The results in terms of specific mortality rates are in line with the literature. The risks of death are lower among individuals with high schooling when compared to those with low and medium schooling. Moreover, differentials were higher for men, tending to decrease with age. Another important result is that there are no regional differences in the mortality differentials according to the schooling of the deceased.

Discussions about the so-called middle class have had wide attention in Brazil in recent years, recognizing their economic and population importance. It is observed how the new patterns of consumption adopted by this class, labor and income per capita, influence the lower incidence of children by Woman by several factors. The present work searches with these tendencies, to analyze the relation of the descendants in the domicile according to their social classes and their respective patterns of consumption. For the methodological source of the discussion about the relations of social classes, the research was based on Goldthorpe's scheme of operation, and the relational effect of the number of children on their expenditures, the databases of the Family Budget Research (POF) Developed by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), referring to the 2008-2009 version. Three variables were considered central and fundamental of the data bank for the observation (Income, Households and Expenses), information about the social classes, the number of children per household, and the expenses with vehicles per domicile were extracted. The decline in the number of descendants is mainly explained by the great changes in the socioeconomic structure of the population. Factors such as urbanization, economic dynamism, greater access to credit and forms of consumption, and income transfer programs for the poorest population are clear for behavioral interference on the household to generate their offspring. The influence of the consumption and the increase of the professional qualifications and of the incomes, made that there was a growth in the composition of the average social classes of the form that the reproductive behavior of the families suffered with such influences.

According to the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostras de Domicílios (PNAD), from 1992 to 2009, the enrollment rate of young people aged 15 to 17 rose from 59.7% to 85.2%. That is, the period of Brazilian population growth, together with its social development, has led to the growth of the school population. These increasing values only identify the need and importance of a more pronounced look at teachers. With the increasing attendance of students in schools, the role of teachers becomes increasingly complex, with more heads to manage and pass on their teachings. It has become necessary to expand the teaching staff to be able to serve the entire school population. Even more important than the expansion of the teaching staff, their qualification and qualification should also be expanded, since in the not so distant future, the fall in birth rates will decrease the population of school-age youth in Brazil. Thus, the high number of teachers will not be more relevant, but their qualities and professional skills. By saying that, this work is aimed specifically at teachers working in the basic education in Brazil and their personal, professional and academic characteristics, and how these characteristics affect the performance of their students. Thus, the main objective of this work is to determine the quality profile of 3rd year public high school teachers, and what is the relation of these profiles and their student’s academic performances. The data used were made available through the microdata of Prova Brasil 2013 (SAEB), carried out by INEP. The Grade of Membership (GoM) method was used to construct the pertinence profiles of teachers according to their characteristics. In the possession of these profiles, it was verified which teacher’s characteristics resulted in an effective way in good performances of their students in the evaluated curricular component. The results indicate three groups of teachers with different characteristics: a group considered the to be the one with higher quality, another one classified as medium quality, and the last one classified as poor quality profile. For each group outlined, the performance of their students was distinct, presenting higher performance those students associated with high quality teachers, and lower performance students with poor quality teachers.

In Brazil there is a context of fertility below the level of replacement and it is noted, therefore, that the number considered ideal of children has been reduced to an increasingly smaller amount. Therefore, this research project presents the reproductive dynamics of the Northeast and Southeast, based on the following components of human reproduction: reproductive preferences, family planning and use of contraceptive methods. Research will be carried out on the universe of women who are women (in a stable union or formal marriage) of reproductive age (15 to 49 years). Therefore, the objective of the study is, in the light of social action, to observe the use of family planning as an instrument for the realization of the reproductive preferences of the united women of the Northeast and Southeast of Brazil, using the reproductive health surveys of 1996 and 2006. The methodology used consisted of a descriptive analysis of the data using the statistical model of Logistic Regression. The dependent variable used in the analysis refers to the concretization and non-concretization of the maritally united women, measured by the number of those who managed to reach their ideal number of children and those did not succeed. The independent variables are related to the demographic, educational, social, cultural, economic, reproductive health (family planning and reproductive preference) and relational characteristics (women's relationship with their partner). The results of the regression analysis, for the two years investigated (1996 and 2006), show that in general the age of women, the use of modern contraceptive methods and sterilization, access to the media, such as television and newspapers, and the religion exhibited an important significance for the reproductive realization. However, there are differences in the results shown between 1996 and 2006. What draws attention in the results of 1996 is that for both the Northeast and the Southeast the schooling of women with 10 to 11 years of schooling was significant to reach the goal Of children. Already for 2006 a new factor of great relevance appeared for this condition that was related to feminine employability. In 2006, the women of the two studied regions who had paid work outside the home showed a greater possibility of reproductive preferences in relation to those who did not work. In short, to foment the discussion, we used a theoretical contribution of demography and sociology in order to argue about reproductive preferences, family planning and the concept of social action.

In recent decades, Brazil has faced changes in its sociodemographic, epidemiological and nutritional profile. Changes in the epidemiological and demographic profile were concomitant. Type 2 non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus (DM) stands out as a disease that has progressed significantly as a cause of mortality. It should be pointed out that variables such as age, sex, schooling and income may have a relevant explanatory power for mortality from this disease. Thus, the general objective of this work is to analyze and describe the behavior of mortality rates due to Type 2 DM (TMDM) in the Brazilian population, in terms of large regions and UF, investigating its association with selected sociodemographic factors, taking as a reference the period 2000-2015. The Mortality Information System (SIM) and the Human Development Atlas of Brazil (Atlas BR-2013) of the UNDP were used as data sources. It is a descriptive and multivariate study, focusing on non-insulin dependent TMDM, which were standardized by the population of Brazil, where Brazilian UF were taken as basic units of analysis, which also characterizes it as an ecological study. Descriptive analyzes were performed, observing the three-year behavior of the rates. A multi-regression model (MRLM) was used, weighted by population size, using TMDM (average rate logito of the last four years, 2012-15) as a response variable and indicators of education, income and poverty, as explanatory variables. A non-parametric statistical analysis, using the Mann-Whitney Test was used to measure the significance of TMDM differences and sociodemographic indicators between two groups of UF, one represented by the North and Northeast regions and another by UF of the South, Southeast and Central West. In all analyzes the level of significance was taken as 5%. The results pointed to statistically significant associations between TMDM and the sociodemographic indicators analyzed (indicators of poverty, education and income inequality). In the adjustment of MRLM, the only statistically significant variable, to explain the variation of TMDM, was the poverty indicator (proportion of people living with less than 1/2 sm), (p-value = 0.027), indicating that the poorer and less developed the UF, the higher are their DM mortality rates (r = 0.43). The Mann-Whitney Test showed statistically significant differences for all sociodemographic variables and TMDM, between the two groups considered. Finally, it is possible to emphasize that, despite the socioeconomic advances, all the regions of the country presented growth in their TMDM, especially in those with less favored social and educational conditions. The need for more efficient and more effective public policies is an urgent premise, regarding an improvement in this health-space relationship in Brazil.

Esta dissertação analisa o fenômeno migratório, em especial o movimento de retorno dos migrantes. O surgimento das correntes migratórias pode ser compreendido a partir de fatores de mudança e estagnação na região de origem e a partir de fatores de atração nas regiões de destino. A busca por melhores oportunidades de emprego e renda na região de destino, constitui-se como um dos principais fatores que motivam os migrantes na tomada de decisão para deixar a sua região de nascimento em direção à regiões consideradas polos de atração. No Brasil, a dinâmica migratória acentuou-se no período compreendido entre 1930 e 1970, que foi marcado por um acelerado avanço econômico, dado de maneira desigual entre as grandes regiões do país. Assim, com a presença de fortes diferencias regionais no país, apresentou-se um dos maiores fenômenos da dinâmica migratória nacional, destacando-se a saída de inúmeros nordestinos em direção ao Sudeste brasileiro. Neste processo, o estado de São Paulo destacou-se como o principal destino deste fluxo. A partir da década de 1980, o país, especialmente  os grandes centros urbanos, passou por diversas transformações econômicas, com intensificação de crises de desemprego, descentralização e reestruturação produtiva e aumento da violência, produzindo aos movimentos migratórios novos contornos, destacando-se um movimento de retorno de parte dos emigrantes, em direção a sua região de nascimento. O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar o processo de migração de retorno nos períodos 1995/2000 e 2005/2010 no Semiárido Setentrional Nordestino, composto por 755 municípios localizados acima do rio São Francisco, nos estados do Rio Grande do Norte, Ceará, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas e Piauí. Este recorte geográfico é caracterizado por uma intensa dinâmica migratória, motivada por menor incidência de chuvas e maior ocorrência de secas que em todo o Nordeste e com impactos significativos no desenvolvimento econômico da região. Utiliza-se como fonte de dados os Censos Demográficos de 2000 e 2010, onde estão presentes diversas variáveis sobre o tema de migração, adotando-se o critério de migrante de data fixa. Foram realizadas análises dos totais de retornados no semiárido setentrional e seu perfil sociodemográfico. Adotou-se o modelo de regressão logistica binária para identificar as caracteristicas sociodemograficas associadas aos migrantee de retorno.

This dissertation undertook a demographic study of mortality in Rio Grande do Norte during the nineteenth century, more precisely, between 1805 and 1872. It contributes to a still scarce set of studies in Brazil that are dedicated to the pre-demographic transition. Moreover, this work represented a challenge to propose a quantitative and employment demographic analysis techniques using data that were not designed specifically for these purposes. Contextually, the nineteenth century was marked by the occurrence of epidemic diseases, mainly due to poor sanitary conditions and medical care, and that played an important role in the causes of death structure of the period. In the case of Rio Grande do Norte the literature points to infeccious diseases such as smallpox, cholera and yellow fever playing a import role along the nineteenth century. Given the inherent limitations of historical data on population and deaths count, this study applied specific demographic techniques for correction and estimation of mortality indicators. Due to the availability of population information and total deaths and age group, analyzes were conducted to five points in time (1805, 1839, 1846, 1870 and 1872). Preliminary analysis indicated that the best method for correcting the underreporting of adult mortality was the Growth Balance Brass Method (1975). To estimate child mortality, was chosen an existing mortality function, using as criteria the one closest to adult mortality function. After analyzing various levels of life tables of Coale and Demeny (1996) western model (level 6) and east (level 19), and 19 mortality functions of different countries available on the site The Human Mortality Database, the function chosen was the Iceland in 1850. So we applied the indirect standardization method to adjust the level of mortality and obtained a new mortality to the Rio Grande do Norte in 1805. It was found that the specific rate of mortality of Rio Grande do Norte showed high levels of infant mortality among children aged zero to four years and in adults there was a high mortality at ages above 50 years. Life expectancy at birth was 32.3 years, a similar estimate to what Mortara (1941) found for Brazil in 1870 (life expectancy of 32.7 years) and 1890 (life expectancy of 30.6 years). In general, the results indicate congruence between the mortality age pattern estimated (children and the elderly as the most affected) and the mortality age pattern typical of areas affected by epidemics such as registered to Rio Grande do Norte over XIX century. It is suggested that future work to carry out the same exercise analysis and use of demographic techniques to data from other captaincies / northern provinces / northeast of the country, which possibly had socioeconomic and sanitary conditions similar to those of Rio Grande do Norte, in order to quantitatively compare the impact of epidemic crises in the region for the historical period depicted.

The aim of this thesis was to identify patterns of Nossa Senhora da Apresentação Parish, corresponding at the time to the city of Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, in the years 1937 and 1938, with regard to age, marital status, location residence, place of birth and occupation of the bride and groom. For this, it was used as a source of information parish records of marriages, originally from Cúria Metropolitana de Natal and scanned by Laboratório de Experimentação em História Social, UFRN. These records were transcribed for Excell software information age, national origin, marital status, place of residence and occupation of the intending spouses, thus constituting one of 894 individuals database (among grooms, brides, parents grooms, and parents brides) mentioned in 149 records of marriages for the years 1937 (72 records) and 1938 (77 records). To make the descriptive analyzes (frequencies and crossings of information between brides and grooms), the database was exported to the Statistical Package Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Among the main results, it was found, in general, endogamous marriages pattern: older grooms their brides (with an average age of entry into the 29.9 year marriage to the bride and groom and 24 years for brides), natural and own parish residents (albeit with records of marriages between natural and residents of states surrounding the Rio Grande do Norte, especially for the bride and groom, and rare marriages involving foreigners), and singles (and larger indications remarriage for men than women). With regard to occupation, brides were mostly outside the labor market, while the groom, more entered the labor force, fell within the emerging professions of Natal modernization process (trade, public service, and professional services). Besides the marriage patterns of description of a demographic perspective, the main contribution of this work was the use of parish registers as a basis for development of a database containing marital information, for the time, are not possible to be explored through official sources. As a suggestion for future work can list the cohort analysis of the rare individual characteristics (age at marriage, place of residence, place of birth and occupation) for spouses and parents, and also the expansion of studies for all years available for half of the twentieth century.

O início da discussão sobre a relação população-ambiente se confunde com o próprio aparecimento da ciência demográfica e historicamente essa relação vem sido discutida sob a luz do malthusianismo, cujo postulado é que a pressão sobre o ambiente estaria relacionada ao crescimento e tamanho da população. No entanto, estudos recentes apontam que o contingente populacional em si não seria suficiente para explicar mudanças ambientais e discutem a necessidade de que outros fatores demográficos sejam considerados. Entre os mais importantes aspectos dessa complexa relação está o consumo que, por sua vez, é uma dimensão estreitamente correlacionada com as mudanças e dinâmicas demográficas. Deste modo, se o consumo é influenciado por fatores demográficos e se considerarmos que o Brasil vivencia transformações aceleradas na sua estrutura demográfica, é de se esperar que novos níveis e padrões de consumo estejam por surgir no Brasil, fato que caracteriza a temática como promissora e importante para estudos e pesquisas.  O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar o consumo de energia elétrica domiciliar per capita por estágios do ciclo de vida do domicílio no Brasil e simular o comportamento do consumo energético considerando as mudanças na estrutura etária domiciliar. A metodologia proposta consiste em mensurar e analisar descritivamente o consumo de energia elétrica domiciliar per capita por cada estágio do ciclo de vida do domicílio através de taxas específicas de consumo por idade do chefe do domicílio e por arranjo domiciliar. Em seguida, por meio de técnicas de padronização, verificar o nível de consumo caso o Brasil apresentasse outras estruturas etárias em seus domicílios. Os resultados indicaram que o nível de consumo de energia elétrica domiciliar per capita deve aumentar quando os domicílios apresentarem uma estrutura por idade do chefe mais envelhecida, ou seja, um maior consumo de energia deve surgir devido ao envelhecimento populacional. Com as estimativas adotadas nesse trabalho, o acréscimo do consumo decorrente da transição demográfica é o equivalente ao consumo de energia elétrica residencial por três dias da cidade de São Paulo ou por 24 dias do Rio Grande do Norte. Com a confirmação dos resultados esperados, esta pesquisa corrobora com a desmistificação do malthusianismo, fortalecendo a necessidade de se criar e consolidar uma linha de pesquisa sistemática da “demografia do consumo” para a melhor compreensão da dimensão demográfica no consumo da população e no impacto no ambiente.

Os resultados encontrados demonstram a importância de cada uma das medidas propostas, quando aplicado em todas as regiões metropolitanas será possível a análise estatística de correlação com elementos demográficos.

. A análise de redes pessoais se constitui em uma forma de abordagem bastante utilizadas para estudar o relacionamento entre atores, em seu processo de interação. Baseada em uma perspectiva paradigmática estruturalista-interacionista, a utilização das redes envolve níveis de análise de diversas naturezas como por exemplo, empresas, organizações, cidades, países regiões, bem como pessoas. Nesse sentido, ao se adotar como nível de análise o indivíduo, as redes podem ser utilizadas para entender diversos aspectos do contidiano das pessoas, uma vez que, diariamente os indivíduos desenvolvem atividades de forma reacionada com outras pessoas com as quais trocam influências e informações. O processo educativo, por sua vez, é uma das atividades nas quais há essa comunicação interpessoal, seja no âmbito da família, da escola, ou até mesmo da comunidade onde a pessoa esteja inserida. Considerando o processo de escolarização dos alunos de Ensino Básico, pressupõe-se que estes discentes desenvolvem a sua atividade educativa em meio as influências que são exercidas através da rede pessoal formada pelos diferentes atores que fazem parte da sua estrutura relacioanal. Vale lembrar que as redes pessoais podem apresentam estruturas topológicas diferentes dependendo do espaço ou contexto onde estejam localizados os indivíduos, partindo do princípio de que em cada porção do espaço se desenvolvem relações sociais distintas. Nesse sentido, se as redes se diferenciam no espaço, é de se esperar que a influência que elas exercem sobre o desempenho escolar de alunos de localizações distintas tambpem apresentem diferenciação. Para testar essa hipóteses foram escolhidas duas escolas localizadas em contextos espaciais distintos: a Escola Estadual Santos Dumont, situada em Parnamirim; e a Escola Estadual Ana Julia de Carvalho Mousinho, localizada em Natal. Diante disso, estabeleceu-se como objetivo analisar a relação entre redes pessoais e desempenho escolar, em contextos espaciais distintos. Os indivíduos analisados foram os alunos da 3ª Série do Ensino Médio, os quais foram submetidos a um questionário de cunho relacional, a partir do qual seriam coletados os nomes de 45 pessoas que compunham a sua estrutura relacional. Os dados foram sistematizados em uma e processados nos softwares Ucinet e NetDraw, os quais permitiram o cáclculo de três indicadores de redes (Densidade, Número de Cliques e Distância Geodésica) e a representação sociométrica da estrutura relacional de cada aluno observado. As informações de desempenho escolar foram obtidas nas duas escolas, consultando a ficha de rendimento de cada um dos alunos. Nesas fichas, coletou-se as notas finas de Português e de Matemática desses alunos, as quais posteriormente foram associadas aos indicadores de rede por meio de uma regressão logística. Os resultados obtidos demosntraram que as redes pessoais dos alunos dessas duas escolas apresentam estruturas distintas. Na Escola Estadual Santos Dumont, as redes tem um maior número de cliques, enquanto que, na Escola Estadual Ana Julia de Carvalho Mousinho, as redes são mais densas. A associação entre redes pessoais e desempenho nesses dois contextos tambem apresentou diferenciação, pois na Escola Estadual Santos Dumont, a densidade exerce efeito negativo sobre as notas de Português, e os cliques exercem efeito negativo sobre as notas de Matemática. Na Escola Estadual Ana Julia, a associaçaõ entre redes pessoais e desemepenho não apresentou significância estatísitica suficiente, sendo necessário a inclussão de outras variáveis explicativas no modelo de análise dessa escola. Dessa forma, conclui-se que os resultados por si só, já demonstraram a existência de diferenças na relação entre redes pessoais e desempenho escolar, nos contextos espaciais analisados.

No contexto do enfrentamento das consequências da transição demográfica, o envelhecimento populacional se caracteriza como um importante desafio para a sociedade brasileira. Nesse sentido, este estudo foi desenvolvido em dois objetivos principais. No primeiro artigo, foram empregadas variáveis de contextos socioeconômicos e demográficos para a identificação de perfis multidimensionais dos idosos residentes nas capitais do Nordeste, a partir de indicadores específicos provenientes das informações do Censo Demográfico 2010. Para tanto, foi utilizado o método Grade of Membership (GoM), cujo delineamento de perfis admite que um indivíduo pertença a diferentes graus de pertinência a múltiplos perfis, de modo a identificar fatores socioeconômicos e demográficos associados às condições de vida dos idosos das capitais nordestinas, e mostrar diferenças na combinação entre eles. Os principais resultados mostram a formação de três perfis extremos: Perfil 1(35,5%), Perfil 2 (24,8%) e Perfil 3 (29,7%). De modo geral, os resultados apontam para perfis com condições de vida precárias que são expressos principalmente pelos baixos níveis de escolaridade e pela renda mensal domiciliar per capita. O segundo artigo analisou relação entre a mortalidade por doenças crônicas (Neoplasias, Doenças Hipertensivas, Infarto Agudo do Miocárdio, Doenças Cerebrovasculares, Pneumonia e Doenças Crônicas das vias Áreas Inferiores) na população de idosos, dos 137 bairros de Natal, desagregados por faixas etárias decenais (60 a 69 anos, 70 a 79 anos e 80 anos e mais), e indicadores socioeconômicos. Foram utilizados os microdados do Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade (SIM), disponibilizados pela Secretaria de Saúde de Natal, e as informações populacionais são provenientes do Censo Demográfico 2010. O método utilizado refere-se à lógica de vizinhança do Índice Global e Local (LISA) de Moran, cuja espacialização a partir dos mapas coropléticos permitiu analisar a mortalidade dos idosos por bairros, segundo indicadores socioeconômicos e demográficos, de acordo com a presença de significância espacial. Os resultados mostram maior proporção de idosos concentrada nos bairros de melhor condição socioeconômica, como Petrópolis e Lagoa Seca. As taxas de mortalidade, segundo as causas de morte e padronizadas pelo Método Bayesiano Empírico, distribuíram-se localmente da seguinte forma: Neoplasias (Santos Reis, Nova Descoberta, Cidade Nova, Capim Macio e Ponta Negra); Doenças Hipertensivas (Lagoa Azul, Potengi, Redinha, Santos Reis, Ribeira, Lagoa Nova, Capim Macio, Neópolis e Ponta Negra); Infarto Agudo do Miocárdio (Nordeste, Guarapés e Capim Macio); Doenças Cerebrovasculares (Petrópolis e Mãe Luíza); Pneumonia (Ribeira, Praia do Meio, Nova Descoberta, Capim Macio e Ponta Negra); Doenças Crônicas das Vias Aéreas Inferiores (Igapó, Nordeste e Quintas). Os achados presentes no trabalho poderão contribuir para outros estudos sobre o tema e fomento de políticas específicas para os idosos.

O importante processo de envelhecimento que vem ocorrendo no Brasil repercute no perfil epidemiológico da população e de maneira análoga no perfil de adoecimento bucal dos indivíduos, onde se constata uma diminuição na prevalência de cárie dentária, diminuição do edentulismo e aumento de doença periodontal entre os grupos etários adultos. Os principais agravos bucais em todo o mundo estão associados ao acúmulo de placa dental bacteriana, e esta condição, entre outros fatores, são fortemente influenciados pelo estilo de vida, comportamento e hábito de cuidado do indivíduo. Por isso, um crescente interesse na avaliação de comportamentos e hábitos individuais surge na atualidade como uma maneira de tornar possível identificar os ganhos em saúde a partir da via da prevenção. Como fator determinante da qualidade de vida, a saúde bucal se insere neste contexto de ganho de saúde a partir da prevenção graças a seu impacto no estado de saúde geral dos indivíduos, e a sua participação em funções vitais como: respirar, falar, beijar, sorrir, sentir gosto, mastigar e engolir. Nesse sentido, um padrão de cuidado satisfatório da saúde dos dentes é a chave para prevenção direta de inflamação gengival, de periodontite, de perda dentária e da halitose, e indireta, de alterações oclusais, possíveis problemas articulares e câncer bucal. As medidas disponíveis para uma melhor higiene da boca, além da adoção de hábitos alimentares e de estilos de vida adequados são eficazes na promoção da saúde oral. No entanto, a adesão a um determinado padrão de cuidado não se processa da mesma forma nos diferentes ciclos de vida e por isso a necessidade de se conhecer o comportamento dos hábitos relacionados à saúde da boca entre os grupos etários, a partir de diferentes desfechos, demográficos (como sexo, raça/cor) e socioeconômicos. Nesta perspectiva, o objetivo central deste trabalho foi conhecer, entre os brasileiros acima de 18 anos, como se processam Hábitos Saudáveis relacionados à boca, por meio de uma medida síntese; e os intermediários foram: investigar Hábitos Saudáveis relacionados à boca (HSBo) nos ciclos de vida e quais os principais fatores associados. Utilizou-se os dados do módulo especifico de saúde bucal provenientes da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde 2013, realizada pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística em parceria com o Ministério da Saúde. Como recurso metodológico, analises descritivas das variáveis foram realizadas e, através da Teoria de resposta ao Item, foi construída uma medida síntese com significado relativo aos 'Hábitos Saudáveis relacionados à boca'. Os resultados apontam mulheres como mais adeptas aos hábitos saudáveis de impacto bucal, e a perda de adesão aos cuidados bucais, especificamente higiene bucal, nos grupos etários de idade mais avançada. No geral a maioria dos brasileiros possuem hábitos saudáveis em relação à boca.

Este estudo teve por objetivo diagnosticar padrões de estado nutricional de crianças menores de 5 anos e idosos no Brasil no ano de 2009, bem como caracterizar este perfil nutricional segundo possíveis diferenciais sociais, demográficos e regionais. Realizou-se um estudo transversal descritivo de base populacional a partir de dados da Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar (POF- 2008/2009) avaliando crianças menores de 5 anos de idade (n=14.569), foco do primeiro artigo, e indivíduos com idade igual ou superior a 60 anos (n=20.114), no segundo artigo. Para as crianças, o estado nutricional foi classificado segundo os índices Peso-para-idade, Estatura-para-idade e Peso-para-estatura e para os idosos, segundo o Índice de Massa Corporal (IMC). Para verificar a associação entre variáveis sociais e demográficas com o estado nutricional das crianças utilizou-se o teste de associação de Pearson, regressões logísticas e análises de correspondência. As associações entre o estado nutricional dos idosos e as variáveis sociais e demográficas foram testadas a partir do teste de associação de Pearson e de modelos lineares multiníveis. Realizou-se ainda uma análise de comparação das médias de IMC entre as macrorregiões e Unidades da Federação a partir de testes de ANOVA e Tukey. Considerou-se o nível de significância de 5% para todos os testes. Os resultados mostraram maiores prevalências de déficit nutricionais em crianças oriundas das regiões Norte e Nordeste, pertencentes às famílias com menores níveis de renda per capita (até ¼ de salário mínimo e de ¼ a ½ salário mínimo) e de cor/raça preta e indígena. Já o sobrepeso demonstrou maior associação às crianças das regiões Sul, Sudeste e Centro-Oeste, do sexo masculino, residentes no estrato urbano do país, de cor/raça branca e pertencentes às famílias com faixas de renda per capita intermediárias (1/2 a 1 salário mínino e de 1 a 5 salários mínimos). Observaram-se maiores prevalências de déficit ponderal em idosos do sexo masculino, cor/raça amarela e preta, longevos (80 anos e mais), com renda per capita de até ¼ de salário mínimo, com menores níveis de instrução, residentes no estrato rural e nas regiões Nordeste e Centro-Oeste e em idosos que declararam morar sozinhos. Com relação à ocorrência de obesidade, esta se mostrou mais prevalente em idosos do sexo feminino, mais jovens (60 a 69 anos), com as maiores faixas de renda per capita, residentes nas regiões Sul e Sudeste, nos estratos urbanos e naqueles que residiam sozinhos. Sugere-se a continuidade do monitoramento e do estudo dos condicionantes do estado nutricional de crianças e idosos visando estabelecer estratégias de intervenção adequadas e específicas aos grupos populacionais mais vulneráveis ao risco nutricional.

O estudo da mortalidade pelos mais variados diferenciais é uma ferramenta
importante para orientar políticas de pública de saúde, pelo fato de melhor descrever os
eventos de mortes de uma população. Essa pesquisa tem como principal objetivo buscar
as disparidades da mortalidade segundo o nível de escolaridade, sexo e idade adulta nas
grandes Regiões brasileiras e consequentemente para o Brasil como um todo. Uma vasta
literatura mostra que pessoas com nível educacional mais elevado tende a possuir menor
risco de morte (Muller, 2002; Brown et al 2012; Caldwell ,1979; Monteiro,1990; Santos
e Noronha, 2001; Cordeiro, 2001). Estudos sobre as desigualdades da mortalidade por
nível de instrução no Brasil ainda são bem específicos, é o caso de Cordeiro (2001), que
estuda a mortalidade dos trabalhadores intelectuais e braçais de Botucatu-SP; Pérez
(2010) que se detém apenas para mortalidade adulta feminina por nível de escolaridade;
Fernandes (1984) estuda a mortalidade em regiões metropolitanas e não metropolitanas
do Brasil, segundo a escolaridade das mães. Segundo Pérez e Turra (2008) ainda se sabe
muito pouco sobre a mortalidade no Brasil segundo o nível educacional, devido a falta
de informações sobre a escolaridade bem preenchidas nos registros de óbitos oriundos
do Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade do Ministério da Saúde (SIM). Esta fonte de
dados tem apresentado melhora na cobertura das sub notificações na ultima década,
todavia, ainda percebe-se negligência no preenchimento do quesito de escolaridade do
óbito (cerca de 30% dos registros de óbitos no ano de 2010 para o Brasil, foram feitos
sem a informação de escolaridade do falecido). Diante deste cenário, esse trabalho vem
contribuir para a literatura nacional, a respeito do comportamento dos diferenciais de
mortalidade adulta tendo como proposta, utilizar os dados do novo quesito de
mortalidade do Censo Demográfico 2010 (CD 2010), assumindo as características de
escolaridade do responsável pelo domicílio para os óbitos ocorridos no mesmo. Logo,
considera-se que a probabilidade de morte é homogenia dentro do domicílio. Os eventos
de óbitos foram corrigidos para os registros oriundos de domicílios onde o responsável
possuía nível de escolaridade abaixo de ensino médio completo através do método
Gerações Extintas Ajustado (GE-Aj). Com os óbitos já corrigidos, foram calculadas
tábuas de vida por sexo e nível de instrução para todas as regiões do Brasil. Os
resultados encontrados corroboram com a literatura, quanto mais escolarizada é a
população, maior a expectativa de vida. Em todas as regiões brasileiras a expectativa de
vida da população feminina é maior do que a masculina em todos os níveis de
escolaridade. No que se refere às probabilidades de morte por idade, nas idades entre 15 e 60 anos as maiores probabilidades seguem um gradiente, maior probabilidade para os menos escolarizados. Nas idades mais avançadas (a partir de 70 anos) esse comportamento apresenta outro padrão, o nível de escolaridade mais baixo, sem instrução ou ensino fundamental incompleto, apresenta as menores probabilidades nas Regiões, Norte, Nordeste, Sul e Centro Oeste com exceção da região Sudeste. 

O debate em torno do acometimento do vírus HIV/AIDS passou por grandes transformações, no início, as campanhas de prevenção focavam os grupos de risco, depois, comportamentos de risco e, por fim, vulnerabilidade. Ademais, ao longo dos anos, dimensões da AIDS foram surgindo no meio social são estas: interiorização, heterossexualização, pauperização e feminização. Com base nesses contextos, a composição deste estudo compreende dois artigos: o primeiro tem como objetivo geral analisar o perfil epidemiológico e a incidência do vírus HIV/AIDS nas regiões brasileiras, no período de 1980 a 2012 e o segundo artigo tem o intuito de averiguar se há relação entre práticas seguras, conhecimento e percepção das mulheres residentes nas capitais de Manaus e Boa Vista sobre a infecção sobre vírus HIV/AIDS. No Artigo 1, utilizaram-se informações do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde (DATASUS), como fonte de dados. Desenvolveu-se uma análise exploratória e espacial das taxas de incidência e proporção relativa dos casos notificados. No Artigo 2, utilizou-se como fonte de dados a Pesquisa “Avaliando o processo de difusão epidêmica e espacial do HIV/AIDS nas Unidades Federadas da Região Norte do Brasil”, ano 2008. Aplicaram-se técnicas estatísticas de Análise de Agrupamento, ANOVA, Qui-Quadrado, Tukey e Regressão Logística. Verificou-se que, nas Regiões Brasileiras, a predominância de casos notificados ocorreu entre os heterossexuais, em homens, em idade entre 20-60 anos e residentes em Regiões Metropolitanas. Captou-se correlação espacial significativa da taxa de incidência do vírus HIV/AIDS. Constatou-se, por meio dos resultados do segundo artigo, que ter bom conhecimento e percepção sobre o vírus HIV/AIDS não implica, essencialmente, numa prática sexual segura. Estes resultados mostram a necessidade de políticas públicas voltadas à orientação da sociedade, com base em estratégias educacionais que visem tanto informações sobre o vírus e suas formas de prevenção, como também a conscientização da população para práticas sexuais seguras em relações estáveis ou não.

O processo de desenvolvimento do Brasil tem como singularidade o fato de ter se processado num ambiente de profundas transformações demográficas econômicas e sociais. No âmbito da demografia a transição demográfica se deu de forma acelerada e concomitante à transição urbana provocando o surgimento de grandes polos urbanos em torno das capitais, criando o que se chamou de Regiões Metropolitanas. Este processo se interiorizou e catapultou o Brasil para um país onde 84% de sua população reside em cidades de diferentes níveis de graduação na escala de urbanização. As consequências deste processo fez-se sentir em muitos setores da vida do país, com especial evidência na organização e estrutura do trabalho. Vale ressaltar, como decorrência direta da transição demográfica, o surgimento da “janela de oportunidades ou bônus demográfico”, que devidamente aproveitado poderá render benefícios gerais em todas as áreas para a população. A investigação encetada nesta dissertação tem como objetivo investigar, através do estudo das relações entre variáveis demográficas, econômicas e sociais no período de 2000 a 2010, como a dinâmica do trabalho no Brasil foi afetada. Dado que o Brasil possui municípios com dinâmicas urbanas e funcionalidades diferentes, adotou-se como critério para delimitar a espacialidade deste estudo três categorias de municípios que tivessem em comum uma taxa de urbanização igual ou superior a 70% e população total superior ou igual a 30 mil habitantes. Desta forma foram definidos os seguintes grupos: i) Grupo 1, municípios pertencentes às Regiões Metropolitanas cujo polo é a capital do estado; ii) Grupo 2, municípios de Regiões Metropolitanas e RIDES do interior dos estados iii) Grupo 3, demais municípios fora das classificações i) e ii). Para atingimento dos objetivos foi empreendida uma análise descritiva dos indicadores socioeconômicos comparativamente aos anos de 2000 e 2010 e entre os três grupos, enfatizando-se a relação entre sexo e idade. Ademais, estuda-se as relações entre a razão de dependência, a taxa de atividade, o percentual de trabalhadores com carteira assinada e a taxa de desocupação com indicadores sociais, econômicos e demográficos através de técnicas estatísticas de análise de regressão múltipla. Para tanto, fez-se uso das bases de micro dados dos Censos populacionais de 2000 e 2010 do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) e dos indicadores disponibilizados no Atlas do Desenvolvimento Humano 2013 do Programa das Nações Unidas (PNUD). De acordo com os resultados obtidos, os três grupos apresentam características populacionais semelhantes. A taxa de crescimento da população economicamente ativa foi em média 2,11% e o percentual de mulheres ocupadas aumentou significativamente em todos os espaços. As curvas das taxas de atividade apontam que a população entre 20 e 45 anos possuem as maiores taxas, destacando-se as taxas femininas, que aumentaram enquanto as masculinas permaneceram inalteradas. Por intermédio do teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov foi possível constatar que o grupo de municípios metropolitanos do interior (Grupo 2) se diferenciou dos demais, e que o crescimento nas taxas das mulheres do mesmo grupo se apresentou significativamente (p-valor <0,05) diferentes. Através da estimação de uma série de modelos de regressão múltiplas nos quais as variáveis dependentes foram a taxa de dependência, a taxa de atividade, o percentual de trabalhadores com carteira assinada e a taxa de desocupação da população maior de 18 anos, mensurou-se os efeitos de um elenco de indicadores sobre estas variáveis. Em relação aos modelos que foram estimados, percebeu-se que o tamanho da população do município não tem influência em nenhuma das variáveis dependentes do estudo e que há significância do Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano nas variáveis dependentes. Observou-se, que há relação direta e significativa entre a taxa de atividade e a renda domiciliar per capta. Destaca-se, que quanto maior o percentual de trabalhadores com carteira assinada menor a desigualdade de renda. Essas informações podem servir como embasamento para estudos, pois fornecem subsídios e identificam algumas peculiaridades municipais da população brasileira ocupada e aponta para o investimento em políticas públicas voltadas a diminuição da desigualdade de renda e formalização do trabalho na intenção de melhorar os indicadores de desenvolvimento humano.

O envelhecimento populacional tem sido palco de diversos estudos na atualidade, devido seu impacto no âmbito político, previdenciário, econômico, social e cultural. O crescimento proporcional do segmento idoso a partir dos 60 anos, cada vez mais acentuado, trará demandas por serviços específicos, que considerem as limitações e vulnerabilidades desse público. Diante desse cenário, surge como uma opção de amparo e suporte ao idoso, um estabelecimento para assistência integral ou parcial a esse segmento populacional, dependentes ou não, sem condições familiares ou domiciliares ou sociais, as Instituições de Longa Permanência para Idosos – ILPI’s, e no ambiente delas o profissional responsável pelo cuidado direto – o cuidador formal de idosos (ARAUJO et al., 2010). Assim, este trabalho tem como objetivo caracterizar social, demográfica e economicamente o cuidador formal de idosos institucionalizado do município de Natal/RN, analisando os aspectos da qualidade de vida desses cuidadores. Ademais, pretende-se identificar os motivos pelos quais os cuidadores pensam em deixar esta ocupação, tendo como variáveis explicativas um conjunto de características socioeconômicas e demográficas, bem como, indicadores ligados qualidade de vida. Os dados utilizados foram provenientes da pesquisa: “Instituições de Longa Permanência para idosos: abandono ou. uma necessidade familiar?”. Essa pesquisa foi realizada em onze ILPI’s localizadas em Natal/RN. Como metodologia para tratamento dos dados, utilizaram-se Regressões Logísticas, Análise de Agrupamento e alguns Testes Estatísticos. Do total de 92 cuidadores formais, selecionados em todas as ILPI’s, depreende-se que a maioria foi de mulheres, com a escolaridade de ensino médio completo e mais, casados (as) ou unidos (as) ou alguma vez unido (a) e com renda familiar mensal inferior a três salários. Quanto à idade, tem-se que, a média foi de 37,4 anos, e o tempo médio de exercício da função de cuidador foi de 5,93 anos. As mulheres, os não-solteiros, os que fizeram curso para ser cuidador e a limitação por aspectos físicos (domínio da qualidade de vida) se mostraram relacionados ao pensamento de deixar de ser cuidador de idosos. Os cuidadores que pensam em deixar esta ocupação apresentam, nos domínios: limitação por aspectos físicos, vitalidade, aspectos sociais, limitação por aspectos emocioniais e saúde mental, valores menores do que os que não pensam em deixar esta ocupação, o que pode significar influência da sobrecarga física e mental na qualidade de vida desses cuidadores. Ademais, os resultados indicaram valores elevados relacionados aos aspectos de sua qualidade de vida – físicos e mentais, significando um nível alto de qualidade de vida entre os cuidadores formais. O estudo contribuiu no sentido de identificar o perfil do cuidador formal nas ILPI’s no munícipio, podendo servir de base para a elaboração de políticas públicas de melhoria da qualidade de vida do idoso e de seu cuidador formal.

O estudo propõe-se a responder à seguinte questão: quais os diferentes perfis da mortalidade infantil, segundo variáveis demográficas, socioeconômicas, de infraestrutura e de assistência à saúde, das microrregiões do Nordeste brasileiro? Assim, o objetivo principal é analisar os perfis ou tipologias de mortalidade associados aos níveis de condições sociodemográficas das microrregiões, no ano de 2010. Para tanto, fez-se uso das bases de dados do SIM e SINASC (DATASUS/MS), dos microdados do Censo populacional de 2010 e do SIDRA/IBGE. Utilizou-se como variável resposta, a mortalidade infantil e, como independentes, variáveis demográficas, socioeconômicas, de infraestrutura e de assistência à saúde das microrregiões. Como metodologias de análise, foram empregadas: a regressão linear múltipla ponderada, para encontrar as variáveis mais significantes na explicação da mortalidade infantil, para o ano de 2010 e a análise de clusters, buscando encontrar indícios, inicialmente, de grupos homogêneos de microrregiões, a partir das variáveis significantes. Utilizou-se como variável resposta, o logito da taxa de mortalidade infantil e, como independentes, variáveis demográficas, socioeconômicas, de infraestrutura e de assistência à saúde das microrregiões. A técnica de estimação Bayesiana Empírica, foi aplicada às informações de óbitos e nascimentos, devido ao fato inconveniente da subnotificação e das flutuações aleatórias de pequenos números existentes nas pequenas áreas.

 As técnicas de Estatística Espacial foram usadas, para apurar espacialmente o comportamento da distribuição das taxas a partir de mapas temáticos. Concluindo, empregou-se o método GoM (Grade of Membership), para encontrar tipologias de mortalidade associadas às variáveis, selecionadas por microrregião, buscando responder à questão principal do estudo. Os resultados apontam para formação de três perfis: o perfil 1, de alta mortalidade infantil e condições sociais de vida desfavoráveis; o perfil 2, de baixa mortalidade infantil, com medianas condições sociais de vida; e o perfil 3, de mediana mortalidade infantil e altas condições sociais de vida. Com esta classificação, encontrou-se que, das 188 microrregiões, 20 (10%) enquadraram-se ao perfil extremo 1, 59 (31,4%) caracterizaram-se no perfil extremo 2, 34 (18,1%) caracterizaram-se no perfil extremo 3 e apenas 9 (4,8%) classificaram-se como perfil amorfo. As demais microrregiões enquadraram-se nos perfis mistos. Tais perfis sugerem a necessidade de diferentes intervenções em termos de políticas públicas voltadas para a redução da mortalidade infantil na região.

Um dos grandes desafios da demografia atual é obter estimativas de mortalidade, de
maneira consistente, principalmente em pequenas áreas. A carência destas informações,
dificulta ações de saúde pública e leva ao comprometimento da qualidade de
classificação de óbitos, gerando preocupação por parte dos demógrafos e
epidemiologistas na obtenção de estatísticas confiáveis da mortalidade no País. Este
trabalho esta pautado sobre duas linhas de reflexão: uma demográfica e outra estatística,
considerando também duas áreas de abrangência nos estados da região Nordeste, as
áreas maiores (mesorregiões), e as pequenas áreas os municípios. Primeiramente será
implementado o método demográfico Equação Geral de Balanceamento, ou General
Growth Balance, para corrigir os óbitos observados, nas áreas maiores (mesorregiões)
dos estados, por estas serem regiões menos propícias a quebra dos pressupostos
metodológicos. Em seguida será aplicado o método estatístico estimador bayesiano
empírico, considerando os óbitos corrigidos pelo método demográfico, tendo como
referência os óbitos observados nas pequenas áreas ( municípios). O objetivo geral é
obter estimativas de fatores de ajuste de óbitos registrados, para correção da mortalidade
nos estados da região nordeste em 2010, por município segundo grupos etários,
utilizando uma combinação do método bayesiano empírico e Equação Geral de
Balanceamento. A combinação dos métodos tem consigo o efeito de suavização do grau
de cobertura dos óbitos, fruto da associação do rigor da correção do método
demográfico Equação Geral de Balanceamento, e a suavização provocada pelo
estimador bayesiano empírico, com isto supõe-se ter valores mais adequados para os valores
do grau de cobertura dos óbitos. Os resultados apontam que o grau de cobertura de óbitos,
para os estados e mesorregiões do nordeste, segundo a combinação dos métodos com os
seguintes valores: Alagoas (0,88), Bahía (0,90), Ceará ( 0,90), Maranhão (0,84), Paraíba
(0,88), Pernambuco (0,93), Piauí (0,85) , Rio Grande do Norte (0,89) e Sergipe (0,92).

 O rápido processo de envelhecimento populacional, observado no Brasil, tem gerado uma importante demanda para o sistema de saúde, configurando-se em grande desafio para as autoridades sanitárias, particularmente para a implantação de novos modelos e métodos de enfrentamento do problema. No Brasil, a razão de sexo (homens/mulheres) mostra que a proporção de mulheres é bastante superior à de homens, e os aspectos relacionados ao envelhecimento mostram diferenças entre os sexos, ressaltando peculiaridades no envelhecimento também entre eles. Diante disso, o presente estudo tem como objetivos: avaliar a capacidade funcional, identificar os fatores associados à dependência para as atividades da vida diária (AVD) e descrever os perfis socioeconômico, demográfico e de saúde dos idosos atendidos por equipes da saúde da família (ESF) da cidade de Natal-RN. O mesmo foi subdividido em dois artigos: o primeiro aborda a associação entre o perfil sociodemográfico e epidemiológico com a escala de avaliação funcional de Lawton (EL), identificando fatores de risco, enquanto o segundo artigo pretende estabelecer a associação entre a categorização do perfil demográfico com o sexo dos idosos. A fonte dos dados é o resultado de uma pesquisa conduzida por docentes da UFRN nas Unidades de Saúde da Família (USF) em quatro Distritos de Saúde (DS) do município de Natal-RN. É de um estudo transversal de base populacional, com uma amostra não probabilística de tamanho 1068, dimensionada proporcionalmente ao total de idosos atendidos em cada uma das USF dos DS. Os dados foram submetidos a uma análise descritiva exploratória e a testes de associação de qui-quadrado de Pearson, com um nível de significância de 5%. Um modelo de regressão logística foi ajustado, tendo a EL como variável dependente e aquelas que formaram o perfil sociodemográfico e epidemiológico do idoso, como variáveis independentes. As razões de chances, com seus respectivos intervalos de confiança de 95%, foram calculados. Os resultados mostraram associações significantes entre as cada uma variáveis sociodemográficas e epidemiológicas e a EL. A avaliação apontou para uma independência dos idosos, mostrando que a maioria deles não precisa de ajuda para executar tarefas do dia-a-dia. Observou-se uma maior autonomia funcional nas AVD para os idosos jovens ( 60 a 69 anos), que não referiram doenças como AVC, ansiedade, glaucoma e incontinência urinária, bem como não apresentando sinais de depressão.  De modo geral, estas são doenças que demandam atenção especializada, a fim de propiciar melhor qualidade de vida a esse grupo populacional. Espera-se que os resultados desse estudo possam ser aproveitados para potencializar os benefícios de uma velhice mais saudável, através de um acompanhamento eficaz pelas ESF.

Esta dissertação foi desenvolvida na linha de pesquisa: “O habitus de estudar: construtor de uma nova realidade na educação básica da região metropolitana de Natal” a qual está sendo desenvolvida com o apoio da CAPES junto ao Observatório da Educação. Atua, especialmente, no problema do desempenho escolar dos alunos da educação básica da rede pública da Região Metropolitana de Natal (RMN). Dessa forma, o objetivo central deste trabalho é construir uma tipologia dos estudantes do 9º ano do ensino fundamental, que frequentavam a rede pública de ensino (estadual ou municipal) da RMN, 2009, e avaliar, segundo esses perfis, quais características pessoais do estudante e de seus familiares: econômica, social e de capital cultural, bem como de práticas docentes; geram perfis (ambientes) capazes de favorecer um bom desenvolvimento educacional, avaliando-os através do desempenho obtido nas avaliações de matemática e língua portuguesa. Os dados utilizados foram os disponibilizados através dos microdados da Prova Brasil 2009 (SAEB), realizada pelo INEP. Utilizou-se o método Grade of Membership (GoM) para construção dos perfis de pertinência dos alunos segundo suas características. De posse desses perfis foi possível verificar, quais efetivamente eram geradores de bons desempenhos escolares nos componentes curriculares avaliados. Os achados indicam que os alunos classificados no perfil considerado como de ambiente bom, conseguiram obter melhor desempenho escolar tanto em língua portuguesa como em matemática, quando comparados com os perfis extremos adverso e deficitário.