Banca de DEFESA: ANA KAREEN MENEZES NOGUEIRA

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : ANA KAREEN MENEZES NOGUEIRA
DATE: 27/07/2026
TIME: 10:30
LOCAL: VIDEOCONFERÊNCIA
TITLE:

THE INFLUENCE OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY OF DEDICATED SOCIAL SECURITY SCHEMES IN BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES.

KEY WORDS:

Public Sector Pension Schemes, Political Cycles, Financial Resilience, Financial Sustainability.

PAGES: 87
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Administração
SUBÁREA: Ciências Contábeis
SUMMARY:

This research aims to analyze the political and economic factors  influencing the financial sustainability of Municipal Social Security Regimes (RPPS) in Brazil. Financial sustainability is understood as the regimes' capacity to maintain a balance between social security revenues and expenditures, ensuring the fulfillment of their current obligations. In the second article, this financial balance serves as a proxy for financial resilience, representing the RPPS's ability to withstand political and economic shocks. To achieve this objective, a quantitative, descriptive, and explanatory study was conducted using data from official sources. The sample comprises 2,127 Brazilian municipal RPPS, covering the period from 2015 to 2024. Data analysis was performed using panel data regression models, enabling the identification of how political, economic, and institutional factors influence RPPS financial sustainability. The  dissertation is structured into two complementary scientific articles addressing different dimensions of the financial sustainability of these regimes. The first article, titled “Political cycles and partisan alignment as explanatory factors for the financial condition of RPPS,” investigates how the alternation of power and the partisan orientation of public officials impact RPPS financial sustainability. Using a sample of 2,127 municipal RPPS, a timeframe of 2015–2024, and accounting for electoral cycles, the study seeks to identify political behavior patterns that directly influence fiscal and social security decisions. The results indicate that the RPPS financial balance variable is primarily influenced by structural factors of the regimes, whereas political variables showed limited influence. The second article also examines a sample of 2,127 Brazilian municipal public pension schemes (RPPS) covering the period from 2015 to 2024; however, it analyzes their financial resilience in the face of political and economic shocks, such as the 2015–2016 economic recession, the 2019 pension reform, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The results demonstrate that financial resilience is influenced by both institutional and economic factors. Overall, the findings reinforce that the financial sustainability of these schemes stems from the interplay of political, economic, and institutional factors, thereby contributing to a broader understanding of the determinants of municipal pension management.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externa à Instituição - DIANA VAZ DE LIMA - UnB
Presidente - 3297036 - LUIS MANUEL ESTEVES DA ROCHA VIEIRA
Interno - 1149555 - SEVERINO CESARIO DE LIMA