ECONOMIC CYCLES AND DIVIDEND PAYMENTS: A STUDY IN THE BRAZILIAN MARKET
Dividend Policy, Economic Crises, Business Cycles
This study aims to analyze the behavior of the dividend distribution of publicly traded Brazilian companies according to the effects of economic cycles, comparing the phases defined by Schumpeter (1935) with the NBER model. Noting that the studies of cycles with 4 phases are important because it seeks to observe more economic phases, thus contributing to the market (investors) who will have more information about the behavior of dividends. For this, information was collected from 360 publicly traded companies listed in the market infrastructure company B3 between 1997 and 2021, a period that comprises the main crises of the Brazilian market: effect of the devaluation of the Real (1999), real estate crisis (2008), great Brazilian recession (2014-2016) and the crisis caused by the Covid pandemic (2019-2020). Data were obtained through the Thomson Reuters Refinitiv Eikon® database, using the tobit regression model to treat them. It was observed in the study that there is a significant relationship between dividend payments and the recessive economic cycle of Schumpeter's model, concluding that during this phase there is a greater distribution of dividends compared to periods of contraction, recovery and expansion.