FINANCIAL FACTORS DETERMINING FISCAL STRESS FROM BRAZILIAN STATES
Financial Condition; Financial factors; Fiscal Stress
The purpose of this study is to identify the financial factors that are associated with fiscal stress in Brazilian states. In recent years, the deterioration in public finances of Brazilian subnational entities has been seen, so it has been reported that some states have failed to meet their short and long term obligations, such as server payments, retirement income and payment of suppliers. and other beneficiaries. These facts often led to the non-provision of services to the population, and it is possible to verify that they are the object of solvency analyzes analyzed in the financial factors of the financial condition. This poor financial condition of states is considered as fiscal stress. The studies developed in the Brazilian environment are still incipient regarding to consider and validate that the financial factors are determining the fiscal stress condition of the Brazilian states. Thus, In order to achieve the objective of this study, data will be collected for the 26 Brazilian states and the Federal District from 2006 to 2018. For the process of constructing the dependent variable, which seeks to measure the fiscal stress condition of the Brazilian states, an analysis will be performed. of the Annual State Financial Report content, local budgets and news in the media in order to construct a binary variable (Dummy) of the presence or absence of the fiscal stress condition in the analyzed period. For the measurement of a government's Financial Condition, from the financial factors aspect, the independent variables took into consideration the four solvencies consolidated in the literature, namely: cash solvency, budget solvency, short and long-term solvency and solvency of service levels. In addition to control variables such as: Years of crisis, demographic density and GDP per capita. To address the results, logistic regression models were estimated. As a major contribution is the strengthening of research in government accounting, specifically in the area of financial analysis of governments, since research on Financial Condition in the public sector is still embryonic in Brazil.