Direct and indirect effects of the pandemic on mortality and life expectancy by sex, age, color or race in Brazil and regions, from 2019 to 2024.
COVID-19; mortality, life expectancy, decomposition, racial inequalities.
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented mortality shock in Brazil, reversing historical trends of gains in life expectancy at birth and deepening social inequalities. This dissertation analyzes the effects of the pandemic on life expectancy at birth in Brazil and its Regions, between 2019 and 2024. The main objective is to quantify the losses in and to identify how they were unequally distributed among different population groups, using an intersectional approach by sex, age, and color or race. The methodology uses data on deaths (SIM) and population, corrected for omission, both adjusted to ensure coherence with the 2024 revision of IBGE population projections, to estimate abridged life tables by sex, color or race, and region, allowing the analysis of the direct and indirect impacts of the pandemic beyond the official tables for the period. The Arriaga decomposition method will be applied to measure the contribution of age groups to life expectancy differentials, complemented by an extended version that allows analyzing the proportional contribution of the main causes of death. The analysis by age and cause of death, disaggregated by sex, region, and color or race, will identify the direct and indirect effects of the pandemic across sociodemographic characteristics of populations in different regions of Brazil. The results aim to provide robust evidence for demographic debate and for the design of public policies sensitive to health equity, highlighting how the pandemic deepened the structural vulnerabilities historically present in Brazilian society.