Banca de DEFESA: VANESSA VIANA ÁLVARES DA NÓBREGA

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : VANESSA VIANA ÁLVARES DA NÓBREGA
DATE: 28/10/2025
TIME: 13:00
LOCAL: Videoconferência via Gerência de Redes do CCET/UFRN
TITLE:

EFFECT OF DEFINED BENEFIT AND VARIABLE CONTRIBUTION MODALITIES IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT PENSION SCHEMES: FINANCIAL AND ACTUARIAL IMPACT ON MUNICIPALITIES AND CIVIL SERVANTS

KEY WORDS:

public pension schemes; municipal civil servants; microsimulation; defined benefit; variable contribution.

PAGES: 271
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Demografia
SUBÁREA: Política Pública e População
SPECIALTY: Política Populacional
SUMMARY:

Many Own Social Security Regimes (RPPS) face deficits that place pressure on public finances and compete with essential sectors such as health and education. These imbalances stem from financial factors (unfunded liabilities, declining revenues) and demographic trends (aging populations, reduced new entries), with heightened concern at the municipal level, where pension benefits often represent a significant portion of local income. Constitutional Amendment No. 103/2019 aimed to curb such pressures but, by expanding subnational autonomy in defining benefit calculations, it opened the door to alternative arrangements and made the debate on plan design essential to avoid poorly calibrated choices.

This study aims to analyze the financial and actuarial impacts of municipal RPPS adopting either the defined benefit (DB) or the variable contribution (VC) modality. It uses microdata from RAIS/2022 to simulate a standard population of 1,000 municipal civil servants and the Sadeprev software, based on Monte Carlo methodology, to track individual payment trajectories over 75 years. Comparing microsimulations of a pure DB plan and a hybrid model (DB = 1 minimum wage + VC), results indicate that plan design has a greater influence on long-term balance than contribution volume: the hybrid model reduces net disbursements and eases cash flow while preserving the minimum floor. Conversely, scenarios with higher contribution rates increase benefits but result in greater volatility and dispersion among individuals.

Alternative population profiles show that younger cohorts and early entrants accumulate more and generate lower actuarial costs, whereas older, female, and low-income groups rely more heavily on DB and compensatory mechanisms. From the perspective of the civil servant, benefits grow with income and capitalization time, but late entrants and individuals with early eligibility tend to receive lower amounts. Thus, by integrating actuarial and social perspectives, the study demonstrates that although the hybrid model may improve solvency, it transfers part of the risk to individuals and may exacerbate inequalities, requiring redistributive adjustments.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - ALANE SIQUEIRA ROCHA - UFC
Externo à Instituição - BERNARDO LANZA QUEIROZ - UFMG
Presidente - 1803637 - CRISTIANE SILVA CORRÊA
Interno - 3248402 - HERICK CIDARTA GOMES DE OLIVEIRA
Externo à Instituição - JOÃO VINICIUS DE FRANCA CARVALHO - USP
Interna - 1715284 - LUANA JUNQUEIRA DIAS MYRRHA
Externa à Instituição - MÁRIS CAROLINE GOSMANN - UFRGS