Banca de DEFESA: VANESSA VIANA ÁLVARES DA NÓBREGA

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : VANESSA VIANA ÁLVARES DA NÓBREGA
DATE: 28/10/2025
TIME: 13:00
LOCAL: Videoconferência via Gerência de Redes do CCET/UFRN
TITLE:

CHANGE IN THE BENEFIT PLAN MODALITY FROM DEFINED BENEFIT TO VARIABLE CONTRIBUTION IN OWN SOCIAL SECURITY REGIMES: FINANCIAL AND ACTUARIAL IMPACT ON MUNICIPALITIES AND CIVIL SERVANTS

KEY WORDS:

public pension schemes; municipal civil servants; microsimulation; defined benefit; variable contribution.

PAGES: 265
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Demografia
SUBÁREA: Política Pública e População
SPECIALTY: Política Populacional
SUMMARY:

Many Own Social Security Regimes (RPPS) face deficits that put pressure on public finances and compete with essential areas such as health and education. These imbalances involve financial factors (unfunded liabilities, revenue contraction) and demographic ones (aging, lower entry), with additional concern in municipalities, where pension benefits often represent a significant share of local income. Constitutional Amendment No. 103/2019 sought to contain such pressures but, by expanding subnational autonomy to define benefit calculations, opened space for alternative arrangements and made the debate on plan design essential to avoid poorly calibrated choices. This research aims to analyze the financial and actuarial impacts of changing municipal RPPS from the defined benefit (DB) modality to variable contribution (VC). Microdata from RAIS/2022 are used as a basis to simulate a standard population of 1,000 municipal civil servants, and the Sadeprev software, based on Monte Carlo methodology, is employed to follow individual payment trajectories over 75 years. By comparing the microsimulation of a pure DB plan and a hybrid VC plan (with a floor guaranteed by DB), the results indicate that the plan design weighs more than the contribution volume in long-term balance: the hybrid (Model 2A) reduces net outflows compared to the pure DB, preserves the one-minimum-wage floor, and brings budget predictability; meanwhile, higher contribution rates (2B, 2C) increase benefits but with diminishing returns and greater volatility. Alternative populations show that younger cohorts and early entrants generate higher surpluses and lower actuarial costs, whereas mature and low-income groups depend more on the DB floor. From the worker’s perspective, benefits grow with higher income and capitalization time, while late entrants and careers with early eligibility (such as teaching) tend to yield lower values. Thus, by integrating actuarial and social logic, the study contributes to the debate by demonstrating that, although the hybrid model may improve solvency, it transfers part of the risk to the individual and may widen inequalities, requiring redistributive calibrations.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1803637 - CRISTIANE SILVA CORRÊA
Interno - 3248402 - HERICK CIDARTA GOMES DE OLIVEIRA
Externo à Instituição - JOÃO VINICIUS DE FRANCA CARVALHO - USP
Interna - 1715284 - LUANA JUNQUEIRA DIAS MYRRHA
Externa à Instituição - MÁRIS CAROLINE GOSMANN - UFRGS