BEYOND POPULATION GROWTH: AN ANALYSIS OF URBAN EXPANSION IN THE METROPOLITAN REGION OF NATAL FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION (2000-2022)
Demographic transition; Urbanization; Urban sprawl; Urban consumption patterns
In recent decades, the demographic transition has consolidated itself as one of the structuring processes of social, economic, and spatial transformations in Brazil. In this context, urbanization is no longer understood solely as a driving force behind changes in demographic dynamics, but rather as a dynamic field that responds to new housing demands, changes in living arrangements, and changes in consumption patterns within the new population model. This research seeks to analyze the relationship between the demographic transition and urban expansion patterns, investigating the paradox of the continuous expansion of the urban fabric in a scenario of decelerating population growth. The overall objective is to analyze how urban expansion in the Natal Metropolitan Region (Natal Metropolitan Region) between 2000 and 2022 decoupled from traditional demographic growth and began to be driven by new living arrangements and spatial consumption patterns. The study focuses on five functionally integrated municipalities: Natal, Parnamirim, Extremoz, São Gonçalo do Amarante, and Macaíba. The methodology adopted is exploratory-descriptive, with a qualitative-quantitative approach, using microdata from the Demographic Census (2000-2022) and geoprocessing techniques to map the morphology of dispersion and characterize the sociodemographic profile of the population. The study assumes that the recent expansion in the Natal Metropolitan Region is associated with sociospatial fragmentation and the diversification of housing arrangements, reinforcing unequal patterns of spatial appropriation and demanding new approaches to metropolitan planning.