Banca de DEFESA: IVANISE BORGES SOUZA

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : IVANISE BORGES SOUZA
DATE: 31/10/2025
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: xxx
TITLE:

Economic and non-economic determinants of tourism demand in Fernando de Noronha (PE): an econometric approach

KEY WORDS:

Tourism economy; Determinant factors; Modeling tourist demand; Fernando de Noronha

PAGES: 145
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Turismo
SUMMARY:

Econometric modeling consists of establishing causal structures and determining significant factors that affect future demand. In the tourism field, models are used to capture and analyze the effects of various determinants, make accurate predictions, and establish specifications for potential causality. Understanding and predicting tourism demand is important for developing policy planning, establishing strategies focused on a specific type of demand based on preferences, and facilitating the optimization of tourism resources for companies and government entities operating in the production chain. From this perspective, this study aimed to analyze the interrelationships between the main economic and non-economic factors that influence a destination's tourism demand, based on an understanding of the determining elements that explain tourist behavior under specific choice conditions. The research was based on Tourism Demand Theory to identify non-econometric elements that influence destination choice. The econometric model applied was Sargan's (1964) general-to-specific Multiple Linear Regression, with the total number of tourists to Fernando de Noronha as the dependent variable and the following independent variables: proxy income (visitor income range), proxy tourist price (IPCA inflation index), tourist spending, length of stay (number of days), and marketing. Non-economic variables included return intention, motivation, travel agency services, infrastructure, and quality of tourism services, from 2015 to 2019. The research used secondary data extracted from the database provided by the Fernando de Noronha State District Administration (ADEFN) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The data were processed in Excel and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS 23.0). The study found the model to be statistically significant; however, the R² was not satisfactory, falling below 0.5. The economic and non-economic variables were significant, but they do not fully explain the model. It is concluded that the flow of tourism demand in Fernando de Noronha is influenced by unique destination factors—economic, non-economic, and others not considered in the model.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1160199 - SERGIO MARQUES JUNIOR
Interna - 1243685 - ERICA PRISCILLA CARVALHO DE LIMA MACHADO
Interno - 2001718 - LUIZ AUGUSTO MACHADO MENDES FILHO
Externo à Instituição - MARCELO CHIARELLI MILITO
Externo à Instituição - MARCIO MARREIRO DAS CHAGAS
Externa à Instituição - MARLI DE FATIMA FERRAZ DA SILVA TACCONI