SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND TEMPORAL TREND OF REPORTED CASES OF HIV IN PREGNANT WOMEN IN RIO GRANDE DO NORTE, 2015-2024
HIV, Pregnant Women, Spatial Analysis, Time Series, Public Health.
HIV infection among pregnant women remains a relevant public health problem,
particularly due to the risk of vertical transmission and the social and territorial
inequalities that influence access to diagnosis and healthcare services. This study aimed
to analyze the spatial distribution and temporal trend of reported HIV cases among
pregnant women in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, from 2015 to 2024. This is
an ecological time-series study with a quantitative approach, conducted using secondary
data from the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System, Descriptive analyses of
the sociodemographic and clinical profile of the pregnant women were performed, along
with the calculation of incidence rates, temporal trend analysis, and spatial analysis
using the Global Moran’s Index and Local Indicators of Spatial Association. The results
showed a predominance of young pregnant women, mostly self-identified as mixed race
(parda), with low educational attainment and precarious occupational insertion, mainly
characterized by being housewives, unemployed, or informal workers without formal
employment contracts, indicating an association between HIV infection and contexts of
social vulnerability. Heterogeneity in HIV incidence among pregnant women was
observed across the Health Regions of Rio Grande do Norte, with a higher
concentration of notifications in the Metropolitan, São José do Mipibu, and Assú Health
Regions, including municipalities such as Angicos, Fernando Pedroza, Lajes, Espírito
Santo, Baía Formosa, Pedro Velho, Arês, Canguaretama, and Montanhas. In contrast,
municipalities in the Pau dos Ferros Health Region, such as Luís Gomes, Tenente
Ananias, and Major Sales, showed persistently low detection patterns. Temporal trend
analysis indicated an overall increase in notifications throughout the study period, with
a more pronounced rise from 2019 onward and intensification between 2021 and 2024,
possibly related to the expansion of prenatal HIV testing and the strengthening of
epidemiological surveillance. Spatial analysis revealed positive spatial autocorrelation
and the presence of High–High and Low–Low clusters, demonstrating that the territory
organizes both risk and the production of epidemiological data. It is concluded that HIV
infection among pregnant women in Rio Grande do Norte presents an unequal
distribution in space and time, reflecting differences in access to healthcare services and
in surveillance capacity. The findings contribute by identifying priority regions and
municipalities for strengthening health surveillance, supporting territorial planning of
actions aimed at preventing and eliminating vertical transmission of HIV, and
improving evidence-based nursing practice.