WATER SECURITY: supply infrastructure and vulnerability modeling
Water Security, Spatial Modeling, Water Vulnerability.
A country's water security occurs when its population has sustainable access to adequate amounts of quality water for development in different sectors. In the Brazilian context, where we have a great diversity of climate, biodiversity and land cover and use, measures that aim to guarantee the minimum conditions of access to quality water and the promotion of water security are institutionalized from the National Water Resources Policy (1997) to the National Water Security Plan (2019). In this sense, it is necessary to unravel different variables parallel to the water issue, in order to create scenarios that allow us to model and analyze municipal vulnerability in this area. Thus, this work aims to understand the vulnerability of Brazilian municipalities regarding the satisfaction of demands for water resources, and to analyze the emergence of current and planned interventions. For this, a methodology based on spatial modeling is used, supported by Spatial Statistics Models and Exploratory Analysis of Spatial Data (EASD) and Local Spatial Autocorrelation with cluster and outliers. These approaches are especially important when trying to understand the territorial reverberation of different variables.