Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: RENATO SANTOS DA SILVA
Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : RENATO SANTOS DA SILVA
DATA : 28/08/2017
HORA: 09:30
LOCAL: Auditório do CCET
TÍTULO:
A Bayesian approach to r-largest order statistics (GEVr) with time varying parameters
PALAVRAS-CHAVES:
Bayesian inference, extreme value theory, MCMC methods, dynamic models.
PÁGINAS: 94
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
ÁREA: Probabilidade e Estatística
SUBÁREA: Estatística
RESUMO:
In series Is studied as the behavior of the data can be Change over time. This type of change is Common for data applied in the theory of extreme values (EVT). In environmental data, for example, in rain, wind and temperature, Their levels may be correlated with seasonality, in addition to showing a tendency to increase over the Due to climate change on the planet. Generally, this type of event has been worked on Using standard parametric distributions such as normal and gamma. However, environmental data, in most cases Cases have a heavy tail, unlike these distributions. In some situations (EVT) Analyzing only the maximum (GEV) of a set of data can provide few Observations, in these cases it is more interesting to use the r-largest order statistics (GEVr). This work consists of the development of an algorithm in Software R for posterior distributions for GEVr based on the Bayesian estimation using Markov chains (MCMC) and the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm technique. A Dynamic Linear Model (DLM), which is a general class of time series models, has also been introduced to model the GEVr parameters over time. The proposed model was applied in the time series of the temperature in ºC Teresina-PI and return BOVESPA , in order to follow the seasonality of the temperature in the capital of Piauí and level return BOVESPA
MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Presidente - 308.629.298-90 - FERNANDO FERRAZ DO NASCIMENTO - UFPI
Interno - 1781198 - FIDEL ERNESTO CASTRO MORALES
Externo ao Programa - 320597 - PAULO SERGIO LUCIO