Spatial and temporal management of artisanal shrimp fishing resources in a tropical region
Ecopath with Ecosim; fishing effort; fisheries management; essential shrimp habitats; climate change; northeastern Brazil; Xiphopenaeus spp.
Shrimp fishery management faces challenges due to the different stages of the species' life cycle and the varied habitats used throughout their development. In addition, the lack of fishing regulations in some states in the Northeast makes it difficult to monitor and control fishing effort, while climate change further exacerbates these pressures, making management more complex and demanding. In this context, the objective of this thesis is to understand the spatio-temporal demographic stratification of shrimp of economic interest (Chapter 1), as well as to assess the potential effects of increased fishing effort under future climate change scenarios for the period 2017 to 2050 (Chapter 2). In the first chapter, we evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of demographic groups of shrimps of economic interest (adult and juvenile females, adult and juvenile males) and map the hotspots of shrimp occurrence using spatial interpolation with the IDW method. A total of 13,980 specimens belonging to five taxa were collected, with Xiphopenaeus spp. being the most abundant genus, followed by Penaeus subtilis and Penaeus schmitti. The study showed that the distribution of penaeid shrimp in Baía Formosa is strongly influenced by seasonality and environmental conditions. Recruitment areas varied between groups: the northern sector, influenced by the estuary, served as the main recruitment area for white and pink shrimp, while juveniles of Xiphopenaeus spp. were mainly concentrated in the southern sector, characterized by greater oceanic influence. Thus, the results suggest that integrated spatial and temporal measures are more effective for shrimp fishery management. In the second chapter, two Ecopath models were developed to construct trophic webs, coupled with a dynamic temporal model (Ecosim) to simulate increased fishing effort under future climate change scenarios (reduced precipitation and increased temperature). The temporal simulations revealed that increased primary production, associated with higher precipitation levels, increases biomass and catches, especially in Porto do Mangue, while reductions in this production—an expected trend for the Northeast—result in widespread negative impacts on the system. The increase in temperature had moderate effects, but affected sensitive groups such as macroalgae, Panulirus spp., and Xiphopenaeus spp., which could result in significant trophic losses. Increased fishing effort has reduced the biomass of most species, reinforcing the trade-off between increased catches and stock conservation. Finally, the results of this thesis are expected to provide direct scientific input for decision-makers, contributing to management strategies for artisanal shrimp fishing.