FOR A GREENER BRAZIL: A RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL PROPOSAL FOR ILLEGAL MINING IN THE BRAZILIAN CAATINGA
illegal mining; crime; environmental criminology; Caatinga; risk assessment.
This research proposes to build an econometric model capable of assessing the occurrence risk of mining-related crimes in the Brazilian Caatinga. Using a combination of the rational choice theory and the routine activity approach, mining tenements will be classified according to geospatial attributes and economical aspects of the explored substances using risk terrain analysis. The results, along with statistics of federal criminal investigations, as well as of environmental and mining agencies' regulation efforts, will be used to perform an eleven-year (2010-2020) panel data analysis to estimate the effects of market attractiveness, geographic accessibility, and environmental governance on the occurrence of illegal mining.