Banca de DEFESA: JOÃO PAULO COSTA DE MEDEIROS

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : JOÃO PAULO COSTA DE MEDEIROS
DATA : 24/09/2018
HORA: 10:00
LOCAL: NEPSA II
TÍTULO:

Gestão Visual e Contínua do Risco Financeiro de um Projeto: Integrando Simulação de Monte Carlo, Opções Reais e o Modelo Life Cycle Canvas.

PALAVRAS-CHAVES:

Visual Management, LCC, Risk, MCS, ROT.

PÁGINAS: 92
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
ÁREA: Administração
RESUMO:

The development of a project involves many variables, so it is no surprise to speak in uncertainty given the infinite possibilities which the real world presents. This should be thought over the life of any project as a form of risk control, and not just as an introductory step in planning, as suggested by the PMBOK, unlike PRINCE's vision, which are the main tools used in managing projects. In this sense, the traditional techniques for assessing financial risk and feasibility of a project do not encompass all the possible possibilities and assume that it will be carried forward passively, without considering natural changes that may occur throughout its life cycle as, for example, the option to expand it if it goes well or abandons it if it goes bad. The more uncertain the future of a project, the more valuable its managerial flexibility becomes, that is to say,  its ability to react to these changes. In order to do this, we have integrated models which capture this flexibility in the continuous assessment of the financial risk of a project, namely the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), the Real Options Theory (ROT) and the Life Cycle Canvas (LCC) model. A case study with real data was used to ascertain the application of the methodology. The case study consists of pricing a wind farm with the option of abandoning the project. The pricing using the traditional model points to a NPV of R$ 46.6 million and says nothing about its chance of occurrence, while using the methodology suggested in the study we found that MCS offers the full range of the distributions of probability of the financial variables involved in the project, calculating the chance of a positive NPV by almost 70%. In turn, the ROT uses decision trees to trace possible paths (scenarios) for each stage of the project, expressing the financial value of each path over time, showing the different directions and decisions which can be taken throughout the project period, capturing the managerial flexibility and making the NPV increase by R$ 22.6 million, reaching a total of R$ 69.2 million. Finally, this information has been integrated into the LCC to facilitate the management and increase the speed of decision making.

 

MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Interno - 349782 - AFRANIO GALDINO DE ARAUJO
Interno - 2668551 - ANDRE MORAIS GURGEL
Externo à Instituição - BENNY KRAMER COSTA - UNINOVE
Externo à Instituição - GUSTAVO MAURÍCIO FILGUEIRAS NOGUEIRA - UFCG
Presidente - 1149367 - MANOEL VERAS DE SOUSA NETO