A simulation model to evaluate the bullwhip effect in supply chain
Keywords: Bullwhip Effect. Marketing Mix. System Dynamics.
The Bullwhip Effect (BE) is a problem characterized by the variability of demand in supply chains, causing an upstream amplification of the orders, excessive levels of stocks, and growth of the logistics costs. There is a consensus in the literature regarding the definition and causes of the BE. However, the models to quantify and mitigate the BE are a broad field of research, since the current models and solutions do not consider important decisions variables such as the marketing mix, transport capacity, seasonality and costs. Thus, this exploratory and descriptive study aims to evaluate the influence of the marketing mix variations (product, price, promotion and place) in the behavior of the demand variability in a supply chain. This applied nature study considers both qualitative and quantitative approaches to gather and interpret data from a case study, supprting the identification of reference values for the proposed model. System Dynamics will be used in order to cope with the complexity due to the relationship between the involved variables, since it is a controlled environment and it makes possible the replication of experiments easily, allowing the construction of different scenarios, facilitating the decision-making process. The proposed model will be validated in the context of a food industry, which has a large mix of products distributed through different channels.