Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: RENATA BARBOSA MONTEIRO MACHADO

HOMOCLIMATIC PROFILES IN SEMIARID BRAZIL: AN ANALYSIS OF SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS

Grade of Membership, Homogeneous Regions,Climate Regionalization

The objective of this research is to estimate a climate typology, in order to identify profiles that characterize homoclimatic zones in the semiarid region of Brazil. In addition, we intend to analyze the sociodemographic dynamics in each of the constructed profiles. The meteorological variables considered in the study are: precipitation (mm), relative humidity (%), maximum temperature (ºC), minimum temperature (ºC) and wind speed (m/s), obtained from the database produced by Xavier et al. al. (2016). These are daily data, interpolated to a regular horizontal grid of 0.25º x 0.25º. The analysis period of the study comprises the interval from January 1, 1961 to December 31, 2019. To analyze the demographic dynamics in the various areas, several indicators of living conditions will be considered, such as: population, education, income, occupation, among others. others. The social indicators will be estimated, for each of the homoclimatic zones, taking into account the information collected by the Demographic Censuses of 1991, 2000, 2010 and 2022, carried out by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Aiming. The Grade of Membership technique will be used, a multivariate analysis method based on the theory of fuzzy sets to build the typology of the climatic characteristics of the 1262 municipalities in the semiarid region of Brazil. The methodological approach allows the interpretation of large sets of data and the incorporation of a diversity of additional variables and a climatic typology will be elaborated that will allow identifying between four to five predominant zones with similar characteristics. The preliminary results of the study refer to the analysis of the spatial pattern of the averages of the meteorological variables used and of some social and demographic indicators (1991, 2000, 2010) for the semi-arid region as a whole. In general terms, the results reveal a spatial pattern that is quite dispersed throughout the territory. The project intends to contribute to broadening the knowledge of climate variability issues, which have a possible influence on sociodemographic dynamics in an area marked by climate regionalization.