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Dissertations/Thesis

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2025

	Dissertations
1	EVERTON FELIPE DE SOUZA PINHEIRO Probabilities of Occurrence of Extreme Precipitation Events Associated with Natural Disasters in the Eastern Northeast of Brazil Advisor : DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES MARCOS SAMUEL MATIAS RIBEIRO Data: Feb 26, 2025 Show Abstract The eastern region of Northeast Brazil is characterized by a high population density with high vulnerability to events such as flooding, floods, and mass movements. Therefore, understanding the behavior of extreme precipitation events is essential for planning future impacts, which can affect various sectors of this region. The main objective of this study is to associate the probabilities of occurrence of extreme precipitation and natural disasters in the eastern Northeast of Brazil. The analysis uses precipitation estimates from the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) product and records from the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden). Statistical methods, such as the generalized distribution of extreme values with quantile regression, were applied to estimate the probabilities of occurrence and the return periods of extreme rain events. The results indicate that precipitation extremes show high seasonal and spatial variability, with the periods of March to May (MAM) and June to August (JJA) recording the highest rates. Coastal cities have higher probabilities of precipitation occurrence and higher rainfall values for different return periods, highlighting the high exposure of these regions to natural disasters. The highest frequencies of disasters also occur between the MAM and JJA periods, with emphasis on mass movement events, which occur more frequently in the urban zones located on the coast of the study region. This study is expected to provide relevant information for the development of public policies and risk mitigation strategies, contributing to the reduction of disaster impacts in the eastern Northeast of Brazil.
2	THIAGO GONÇALVES DA SILVA MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON PRECIPITATION AND NATURAL DISASTERS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL Advisor : WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES CLÊNIA RODRIGUES ALCÂNTARA IZABELLY CARVALHO DA COSTA Data: Mar 13, 2025 Show Abstract Natural Disasters (ND) are characterized as the result of adverse events, such as extreme precipitation or droughts, mass movements, among others, which in turn cause damage to humans, materials, and/or the environment, consequently leading to both economic and social losses. In Brazil, there has been a growing increase in the number of disasters related to extreme precipitation, especially in the Southern Brazil (SB) region. Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS), particularly Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCC), are organized meteorological systems that generate intense and prolonged precipitation, playing a key role in the rainfall regime of the La Plata Basin region. This study aimed to understand the dynamics of these systems, from their formation to dissipation, and assess how they contribute to extreme precipitation events that trigger natural disasters. Data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and ERA5 reanalysis were used to analyze the mesoscale environments that favor the lifespan of MCCs. To investigate the relationship between MCS and landslides, data from Forecast and Tracking the Evolution of Cloud Clusters (FORTRACC) were used for MCS tracking, along with disaster records and precipitation data provided by the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden). The research identified that longer-lasting MCCs (D3) are associated with more favorable atmospheric conditions, such as greater low-level moisture convergence, upper-level divergence, and high values of Equivalent Potential Temperature (EPT) and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). These systems tend to travel longer distances and persist for extended periods. Additionally, it was found that most landslides occurred during the Pre-Maturation phase of MCS, when the systems are intensifying and producing more intense rainfall. Furthermore, antecedent precipitation (accumulated in the days prior to the disaster) played a crucial role in soil saturation, increasing susceptibility to landslides.
3	PAULA ANDRESSA ALVES DE ARAÚJO . Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES ANA CLEIDE BEZERRA AMORIM Data: Mar 14, 2025 Show Abstract .
	Thesis
1	ISAMARA DE MENDONÇA SILVA INTRASAZONAL AND INTER-ANNUAL MECHANISMS OF RAIN OCCURRENCE IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL USING MARKOV'S HIDDEN MODEL Advisor : DAVID MENDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DAVID MENDES DEUSDEDIT MONTEIRO MEDEIROS LUIS GIMENO PRESA MICHEL DOS SANTOS MESQUITA TERCIO AMBRIZZI WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: Jan 29, 2025 Show Abstract The rainfall over the Northeast Brazil presents a large climate variability and is highly seasonal and intrinsically conditioned to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. A large part of this climate variability is due to teleconnection patterns, such that the perception of dynamic processes of precipitation and the influence of teleconnection patterns becomes important for the study and understanding of the climate of the Northeast Brazil. This work aims to employ the hidden Markov model to describe the occurrence and intensity of daily precipitation over Northeast Brazil for summer, autumn, winter, and spring. Thus, a diagnostic analysis is performed to characterize the large-scale atmospheric circulation for the hidden states in each season separately. Subsequently, the teleconnection patterns of the hidden states are described for the intraseasonal and interannual timescales. A rainfall database interpolated in a regular grid of 0.25°×0.25° longitude/latitude is used to estimate the parameters of the model during the period from 1980 to 2015. The reanalysis data are used to build the atmospheric and oceanic maps. The Bayesian Information Criterion is applied to assess the fit of model concerning the number of hidden states and then generate the most likely daily sequence of hidden states for each season. The results for the summer indicate a hidden Markov model with four hidden states describing the occurrence and intensity of daily precipitation over Northeast Brazil. In this case, states 1 and 3 correspond to wet versus dry conditions associated with the interplays between the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the South American Monsoon System. States 2 and 4 show a southwest-northwest seesaw pattern of precipitation occurrence, related to antisymmetric conditions between the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. On the intraseasonal time scale, the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on states differs in intensity but not in the propagation phase. The Madden-Julian Oscillation modulates convective activity over Northeast Brazil, intensifying (suppressing) convection during the wet (dry) phases of this oscillation. On the interannual time scale, state 1 is preconditioned by the positive phase of the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole, which forms as a response to the positive phase of the Antarctic Oscillation. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation preconditions the other states in the Pacific, where states 2 and 3 are associated with the warm phase and state 4 is related to the cold phase. Teleconnection patterns occur via the tropics in state 3. State 2 (State 4) is associated with the positive (negative) phase of Pacific-North America and the first (second) mode of Pacific-South America. All these teleconnection mechanisms can alter the large-scale atmospheric circulation and, consequently, modulate the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the South American Monsoon System, and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, affecting the occurrence and intensity of precipitation in the summer over Northeast Brazil. These results improve the understanding of the dynamic processes of summer rainfall over Northeast Brazil and their association with potentially predictable intraseasonal and interannual teleconnection patterns on seasonal time scales. It is expected that the hidden Markov model will also select distinct rainfall states during autumn, winter, and spring, which characterize the occurrence and intensity of precipitation over Northeast Brazil.
2	LEVI MENDES FRANKLIN Atmospheric aerosols for the Caatinga Biome: Profile, Hygroscopicity and Formation ofNew Particles Advisor : GABRIEL BRITO COSTA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA GABRIEL BRITO COSTA JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA JOÃO BOSCO VERÇOSA LEAL JUNIOR JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN THIAGO RANGEL RODRIGUES Data: Feb 7, 2025 Show Abstract The size and elemental composition of aerosol particles are variable.important factors that influence their radiative effect and their role as condensation nuclei ofcloud (CCN). Knowledge of the characteristics of aerosols at regional and local scales,their temporal changes and interrelations with solar radiation, are of great importance foratmospheric research. The aerosol interferes in the climate, in different ways, through itsinteractions with radiation and clouds, by absorbing and scattering solar radiation, aerosolsmodify the terrestrial radiative balance, thereby increasing the planetary albedo and producing atendency for the climate to cool, in turn, the absorption of radiation has an opposite effectand the tendency is for the atmospheric layers to warm up the balance between cooling andHeating depends on the properties and environmental conditions of the aerosol. This job haswith the objective of carrying out an investigation about the population of aerosols through threeaerosol, black carbon (BC) and cloud condensation nuclei collection campaigns(CCN), two of which were held in Guaiúba-CE (environment with almost no urban pollutionwithin the Caatinga Biome) and one held in a fortress (environment with a high concentrationpollution), three pieces of equipment were used in this work, a spectrometerscanning mobility particle sizerspectrometer (SMPS) a BC 1054 multispectrum carbon black monitor (BC) and a countercloud condensation nuclei (CCNC), the campaigns lasted on average __ days, withthe objective of better understanding the aerosol populations for the caatinga biome as well ascomparison with the polluted environment, an observational analysis was initially performedof the aerosol and BC profiles, and then the investigation was carried out in order to determine thehygroscopicity κ for the regions, it was found that a for the polluted environment has greaterconcentration of aerosols when compared to the measurement in a clean environment, as well as valuesmuch higher than BC, the hygroscopicity for both environments showed the samevalue (κ = 0.19), this value is very close to that found by Almeida,(2019) for Fortaleza-CE, this value is less hygroscopic compared to the continental aerosolglobal, in which it has an average of 0.27, and much less hygroscopic than the continental aerosolEuropean with average values of 0.36.

2024

	Dissertations
1	GABRIEL VÍCTOR SILVA DO NASCIMENTO . Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES ROSARIA RODRIGUES FERREIRA Data: Feb 28, 2024 Show Abstract .
2	ALBERT SMITH FEITOSA SUASSUNA MARTINS ANÁLISE DOS ÍNDICES DE EXTREMOS CLIMÁTICOS E DE VEGETAÇÃO POR DIFERENÇA NORMALIZADA NO SEMIÁRIDO DO BRASIL Advisor : LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE COMMITTEE MEMBERS : LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES ALINE GOMES DA SILVA Data: Feb 29, 2024 Show Abstract O presente estudo busca contribuir para a compreensão dos impactos dasmudanças climáticas na região Semiárida do Brasil e como isso afeta avegetação e outros aspectos ambientais, pois ao entender melhor essa relação,será possível compreender como os ecossistemas respondem às mudançasclimáticas e, assim, tomar medidas mais informadas para mitigar seusimpactos. Tendo como objetivo analisar a associação entre os índices deextremos climáticos por meio de componentes principais e o índice devegetação por diferença normalizada (NDVI) na região Semiárida do Brasil(SAB). Os dados climáticos utilizados foram fornecidos por Xavier et al. (2022)e as variáveis utilizadas no presente estudo são precipitação, temperaturamáxima e mínima. Os dados de NDVI foram coletados pelo sensor MODIS abordo dos satélites TERRA/AQUA da NASA. A análise foi realizadaprimordialmente pela caracterização dos períodos chuvoso e seco. Uma vezdeterminados esses períodos, foi feita a análise das tendências dos índicesdas componentes principais, a fim de calcular a correlação cruzada entre ascomponentes nos locais onde houve tendências. Posteriormente, calculada acorrelação cruzada, com o objetivo de verificar a associação entre ascomponentes principais de extremos climáticos e o NDVI. No intuito decompreender como esses fatores interagem e se influenciam mutuamente. Acomponente principal (PC1), revela informações sobre as variações a extremosde temperatura e frequência de dias quentes. Em relação com o NDVI sugereque as condições climáticas de temperatura, especialmente durante a noite,desempenham um papel significativo na relação entre tais extremos e o NDVI,seja no período seco ou chuvoso.
3	IARA BEZERRA DA SILVA ESTIMATE OF GROSS PRIMARY PRODUCTION IN A SEASONALLY DRY TROPICAL FOREST Advisor : PABLO ELI SOARES DE OLIVEIRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : PABLO ELI SOARES DE OLIVEIRA BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA BERNARDO BARBOSA DA SILVA Data: Mar 1, 2024 Show Abstract Gross Primary Production (GPP) is characterized by the rate of carbon absorption during photosynthesis, providing crucial insights into seasonal variations in the carbon cycle. GPP has been monitored worldwide through flux towers, using the Eddy Covariance (EC) technique, and models combined with remote sensing data. This study aimed to evaluate different methods for estimating GPP from remote sensing, derived from Landsat 8 and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data. The following models were tested: Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM), Temperature and Greenness Model (TG), Vegetation Index Model (VI), Light Use Efficiency (LUE), and MOD17A2H product, at the Seridó Ecological Station (ESEC-Seridó), in the municipality of Serra Negra do Norte - RN. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) were derived from Landsat 8, available on the Google Earth Engine (GEE), used as inputs in the models, and integrated with micrometeorological variables. The models were compared with GPP measured by the Eddy Covariance technique (GPPEC). Overall, all models underestimated GPPEC, especially in the dry season, except for the MODIS model, which overestimated in both seasons, particularly in the rainy season, by about 394%. The results indicated that the TG model estimated using Landsat 8 data showed the best performance for the study area (seasonally dry tropical forest). The second-best performance was from the LUE models, also estimated from Landsat 8, when considering variability in light use efficiency. Therefore, the validation and comparison of models conducted in this study will provide valuable insights for the development of future models for estimating gross primary production, given the need for model calibration using observed data to reduce uncertainties arising from the parameters used.
4	MARIANA MELISSA LIMA VIEIRA DE MELO . Advisor : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA PABLO ELI SOARES DE OLIVEIRA JORIO BEZERRA CABRAL JUNIOR Data: Mar 4, 2024 Show Abstract .
5	MARINA DE SIQUEIRA WIND ENERGY AND SUSTAINABILITY: IMPACT OF WIND FARMS ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND VEGETATION IN THE CAATINGA. Advisor : CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA PEDRO RODRIGUES MUTTI WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES VENERANDO EUSTAQUIO AMARO MARIA LEIDINICE DA SILVA Data: Aug 26, 2024 Show Abstract In recent years, the expansion of renewable energy technologies has been remarkable on a global scale. Wind energy, in particular, has played a crucial role in the pursuit of decarbonizing the energy matrix. However, it is important to recognize that the construction and operation of wind farms have significant impacts on the environment and local climate, altering the properties of the land surface and disturbing the interactions between the surface and the atmosphere. This study is dedicated to investigating the effects of the growth and installation of wind farms on land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation in the Caatinga biome of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), a region particularly vulnerable to climate change. Geolocation data of wind turbines located in RN, provided by the Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL), were used. The turbines were grouped into 34 clusters using the DBSCAN method. LST and vegetation data were obtained from the MODIS sensor aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites over the period from 2004 to 2023 for LST and 2022 for vegetation, using both day and night measurements. These data were compared with reference values extracted from the Açu National Forest. The results pointed to a trend of nighttime warming and a decrease in the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) values over the years. These analyses offer a more comprehensive understanding of the environmental impacts associated with wind farms, considering the specific context of the Caatinga and its interactions with climate change.
6	BARBARA MARINHO ARAÚJO Spatio-temporal analysis of fire activity in the terrestrial biomes of Northeastern Brazil Advisor : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN COMMITTEE MEMBERS : BEATRIZ CAVALCANTE DA SILVA EDICLÊ DE SOUZA FERNANDES DUARTE JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN PEDRO RODRIGUES MUTTI RENATA LIBONATI DOS SANTOS Data: Aug 30, 2024 Show Abstract Fire is an essential element for the conservation and diversity of many ecosystems. However, human activities that use fire have caused changes in the frequency and severity of vegetation fires, even affecting ecosystems not adapted to fire. The terrestrial biomes of Northeast Brazil are vulnerable to fire, exhibiting different degrees of dependence and resistance to it. This study aims to compare the detection of burned areas by the MCD64A1 and MapBiomas products, and the detection of hotspots by the MOD14A2 and MYD14A2 products, from the MODIS instruments aboard NASA's AQUA and TERRA satellites. The products were evaluated across different biomes in Northeast Brazil to identify patterns, trends, and determining factors of fire events. Burned area data from the MCD64A1 and MapBiomas products were obtained for the period from 2001 to 2022, and hotspot data from the MOD14A2 and MYD14A2 products from 2003 to 2022. The analysis of these products was conducted using descriptive and multivariate methods. The results reveal that the MCD64A1 and MapBiomas products show differences in the estimation of burned areas, with significant correlation in some biomes, such as the Caatinga and Cerrado, although they present variations in the amount of burned area detected. Furthermore, the MOD14A2 and MYD14A2 products provided consistent detection of hotspots throughout the studied period, reflecting seasonal and annual variations. Each biome displayed distinct particularities in fire activity patterns, mainly correlated with climatic factors such as the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events, and associated with anthropogenic activities such as deforestation and the use of fire for pasture clearing. Additionally, other factors influence the accuracy of burned area detection by satellites, such as vegetation, the extent of the fires, and the type and amount of fuel. The analyzed products proved to be valuable tools for monitoring burned areas and hotspots in the biomes of Northeast Brazil, and given the variability in detections observed between different products, further studies are needed to understand how these products behave in each biome, considering the particularities of each one.
7	SAMUEL GAUDIOSO ALBUQUERQUE CARVALHO MELO INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE VARIABLES ON ARTISANAL FISHING IN PECEM-CEARÁ Advisor : LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE COMMITTEE MEMBERS : LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES MARCIO MACHADO CINTRA RAYANNE LEITÃO CLAUDINO Data: Aug 30, 2024 Show Abstract The phenomenon of climate change has intensified global interest in the impacts of global warming across various sectors, including artisanal fishing, particularly in vulnerable regions such as the Pecém district in the municipality of São Gonçalo do Amarante, Ceará. Climate alterations, particularly the rise in global temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns, directly affect fishery productivity. Analyzing these variables within the specific context of artisanal fishing in coastal areas is essential. This study aims to explore the relationship between meteorological variables and fishing activity in Pecém, utilizing a series of precipitation, sea surface temperature, and wind speed data from 2019 to 2022. These data were obtained from reliable sources such as the Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos (Funceme), the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), and the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Additionally, specific data on fishing activity were provided by the Fish Landing Monitoring Project (PMDP) and the Fishery Spatialization Project (PEP), both coordinated by Petrobras. The statistical analysis included descriptive statistics methods, catch per unit effort (CPUE) calculations, simple and cross-correlations, Taylor diagrams, bias calculations, root mean square error (RMSE), and the Wilcoxon test. One of the main findings of this study was the observation of an inverse relationship between CPUE and fishing activity, with higher monthly CPUE averages recorded between November and March and lower averages between April and October. This pattern suggests that meteorological conditions directly influence fishing efficiency at different times of the year. The strong correlation between precipitation data obtained from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and those observed by Funceme validated the use of these reanalysis data in the study. The bias and RMSE calculations, along with the Taylor diagram, corroborated the adequacy of the reanalysis data. At the same time, the Wilcoxon test indicated a p-value greater than 5%, failing to reject the null hypothesis and confirming the validity of the data used. The influence of meteorological variables on total production and CPUE was observed. Sea surface temperature exhibited the highest negative correlation, especially with a four-month lag in total production. This finding is particularly relevant for species such as camurim, which showed greater sensitivity to changes in sea surface temperature, evidencing a damaging relationship between fishing activity and CPUE, with a four-month lag. In summary, this study highlights the importance of meteorological variables in artisanal fishing in Pecém, pointing to the need for adaptive policies that consider these variables in fishery management. The use of robust meteorological data, such as those from the ERA-Interim, combined with rigorous statistical methods, can provide valuable insights into the sustainability and efficiency of fishing in regions vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
	Thesis
1	GIZELLY CARDOSO LIMA EXPLORING CLIMATE TRENDS IN WIND SPEED IN BRAZIL (1961-2020) AND PROPOSING A HYBRID MODEL FOR FORECASTS Advisor : DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES GABRIEL BRITO COSTA JORIO BEZERRA CABRAL JUNIOR PAULO SERGIO LUCIO SAMIRA DE AZEVEDO SANTOS EMILIAVACA Data: Feb 21, 2024 Show Abstract This study aimed to analyze daily wind speed data in Brazil collected from 1961 to 2020 to assess changes in two 30-year climatological normals, referred to as P1 and P2. The analysis was conducted through 54 meteorological stations managed by INMET, utilizing missing data filled with the bootstrap expectation maximization algorithm. Imputing 10% of the data was identified as the most reliable, showing low Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values, values close to 1 for DP, and r values exceeding 0.93, indicating the effectiveness of this method in reconstructing historical wind speed data in Brazil. The study included the application of statistical tests, such as the Mann-Kendall test to detect linear trends and the Sen slope test to quantify trend intensity. During the P2 period, positive trends were observed in the Amazon basin and the semi-arid region, while negative trends were highlighted along the coast and in the Southeast region. Average wind speeds during P1 were higher than those in P2, revealing variations over the years. Comparison of the climatological normals P1 and P2 revealed significant positive trends in some regions during P2, with an increase in the average monthly variation of up to 0.85 m/s. The average slopes of significant trends were -1 and 1 ms-1 decade-1 for all analyzed periods. These results indicated high wind magnitudes, with Maximum Power Density (PD) of 778.08 Wm-2 for the NEB region, 170.90 Wm-2 for the SUB region, and 401.67 Wm-2 for the SUB. These findings have the potential to enhance the optimization of renewable wind energy generation in Brazil. Additionally, two databases, onshore and offshore, were used to evaluate wind potential. The onshore database consisted of hourly wind speed information collected at automatic stations in 2019, located near wind parks. The offshore database was obtained from a buoy offshore, Fortaleza, located on the coast of Ceará, near an offshore wind farm projected by the company Totalenergies Petróleo & Gás Brasil. The hybrid approach (SARIMA+GRU) proved superior to individual algorithms in generating wind speed and offshore wind potential forecasts. The Monte Carlo method was used to build prediction confidence intervals, and the prediction gain percentage reached up to 95% compared to individual models. The studied region has a total estimated technical potential of 2766 GW, and the analysis revealed that a single park with 200 turbines can meet the entire NEB region's demand, equivalent to 229% more than the region's demand. These results highlight the significant wind potential in the region, contributing to future renewable energy projects.
2	AUGUSTO DE RUBIM COSTA GURGEL DENSIDADE DE POTÊNCIA EÓLICA A PARTIR DE COMBINAÇÃO DE MULTIMODELOS CLIMÁTICOS REGIONAIS NO NORDESTE DO BRASIL PARA O PASSADO RECENTE E FUTURO Advisor : KELLEN CARLA LIMA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DIEGO SILVEIRA COSTA NASCIMENTO DOMINGO CASSAIN SALES KELLEN CARLA LIMA MARCOS SAMUEL MATIAS RIBEIRO MAYTÊ DUARTE LEAL COUTINHO Data: Feb 26, 2024 Show Abstract The significant increase in energy demand and the consequent increase in greenhouse gas emissions have meant that clean energy sources have become more widely explored across the globe. In Brazil, in particular, the development of wind and solar energy was inspired, mainly in the Northeast Brazil region (NEB). Thus, the general objective of this research was to combine high-resolution multi-models (ensembles) belonging to the CORDEX project using Average Means, Convex Combination, Principal Component Regression and Machine Learning techniques in order to reduce uncertainties and project more accurately the wind speed and wind power density for areas of the NEB under two climate scenarios for the near (2041-2060) and far (2080-2099) future. The thesis is organized in the format of articles. In the first article, it was evaluated how wind speed was related to other climatic variables. To this end, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to correlate wind speed with air temperature, relative air humidity and precipitation from the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RegCM4.7_HadGEM2-ES for the Rio Grande do Norte, in the recent past from 1986 to 2005. As a result, CP1 presented 75.74% of data variability and eigenvalue above 1, representing high wind speed intensity, high temperature, low relative air humidity and precipitation during the months between August and December. Wind speed had a strong negative correlation with precipitation and relative humidity, -0.91 and -0.94, respectively. In the second article, the wind power density was calculated for areas of the NEB in the recent past from 1986 to 2005. Firstly, the ECMWF-ERA5 reanalysis was validated with the data observed from Xavier. From the analysis of the results, a moderate Pearson correlation coefficient was obtained, between 0.4 and 0.7, and bias between -1m/s and 1m/s (except for the austral winter) throughout the NEB. Then, the RCM RegCM4.7, RCA4 and Remo2009 were validated with the reanalysis, and overestimation values above 1m/s were observed in several areas of the NEB in the dry period (July to December). Due to the high climate variability of the NEB and its large territorial extension, in addition to the high resolution of the RCM, four areas were chosen for study. Based on the number of wind farms and different climatic aspects, the following were chosen: the north of Ceará (N-CE), the north of Rio Grande do Norte (N-RN), the Borborema plateau (Borborema) and the center of Bahia (CBA). In this way, the RCM were validated individually in comparison to the reanalysis of each area mentioned above. The RCM with the best statistical indices in each area were chosen to calculate the wind power density. N-RN and N-CE were the areas thar presented the highest wind power density in the recent past. Finally, in the third article, robust techniques were applied to the set of multi-models (ensembles) based on the arithmetic mean (a nonrobust technique, but widely used in the literature), convex combination, Principal Component Regression (PCR) and Machine Learning, for the same areas chosen in the previous article and the same period (recent past). The arithmetic mean and convex combination techniques showed a high underestimation of wind speed for the first half of the year, between 1.5 and 2m/s (except the C-BA area), and a high overestimation for the second half of the year, with values between 1,5 and 2m/s, in all areas of the NEB. The other techniques managed to represent well (close medians – values below 0,5m/s) the ECMWFERA5 reanalysis in all areas studied in the NEB. From the analysis of the Taylor’s Diagram and Willmott’s statistical agreement indices and the standard deviation ratio, the technique that best represented the reanalysis in all NEB study areas was PCR. Thus, using this technique, wind power density was calculated, both for the recent past and for the near and far future, using RCP2.6 and 8.5. A decrease in wind power density was observed for all areas when comparing futures with the recent past with the maximum decrease of 3.86% in N-RN for the far future by RCP8.5. It was therefore considered that there is stability in the values of wind power density for near and far future. Therefore, the N-RN area presented the highest wind power density in the NEB, followed by N-CE, Borborema and C-BA, both for the recent past and for the near and far future.
3	ISRAEL WALTER HILÁRIO DA SILVA . Advisor : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA GABRIEL BRITO COSTA JOSE ROMUALDO DE SOUSA LIMA THIAGO RANGEL RODRIGUES Data: May 24, 2024 Show Abstract .
4	FELIPE JEFERSON DE MEDEIROS ASSESSMENT AND PROJECTION OF CLIMATE EXTREMES OF PRECIPITATION IN BRAZIL WITH CMIP MODEL GENERATIONS Advisor : CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA ALVARO JAVIER AVILA DIAZ MARIA LEIDINICE DA SILVA WANDERSON LUIZ SILVA Data: Aug 28, 2024 Show Abstract The occurrence of extreme climate events usually causes numerous economic and social losses, especially in vulnerable and low adaptive capacity areas, such as Brazil. Despite these aspects and verifying that extreme events are becoming increasingly frequent, intense and long-lasting few studies have investigated this subject in Brazil, and most of them rarely ever evaluate the climate projections. In this context, the main goal of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models in simulate the extreme climate events of precipitation and assess their projected changes for Brazil. Within this scope, several General Circulation Models (GCMs) from different generations of CMIP have been used. With the daily data from some of these models, the number of dry (DD - absolute threshold of less than 1 mm) and heavy rainfall days (HRD – rainfall above the 99th percentile) over NEB in the historical period (1981–2005) and their climate projections for the near (2016–2040) and far future (2076– 2100) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios were investigated. The results indicate that four (three) models show an overall superior performance in reproducing the dry (heavy rainfall) days, being common in both aspects only the EC-EARTH3. Thus, the skill of the CMIP6 models for NEB varies according to the extreme rainfall conditions analyzed. For the future climate (near and far), results show that dry days are project to increase over the entire NEB territory, especially during DJF and MAM and more pronounce in the east coast, with projections that these conditions will be more severe under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The number of dry days may increase up to 15%. For HRD, although the results indicate that the number of days with heavy precipitation will be more frequent in the future (the increase can exceed 140%), the analysis show that under the low (SSP2-4.5) or intermediate (SSP3-7.0) forcing scenarios the HRD tends to be higher than in the most pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5). In short, this initial part of the study has shown that it might either rain too much within a short range of time or the water scarcity will be longer-lasting in the future in NEB. It was also found that the evolution of the CMIP models has apparently not improved the representation of climate extremes over the NEB. In order to investigate this aspect in more detail, this subject was investigated deeply in the second part of the study, expanding the analysis to the whole of Brazil territory, analyzing a greater number of extreme precipitation climate indices - this time those suggested by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) - and using models from all generations of CMIP. In this case, eight extreme climate indices were calculated for the period 1981-2005 and the projections for the middle (2046-2065) and far future (2081-2100) were evaluated, considering the worst-case scenario for each CMIP generation (SRES A2, RCP8-5 and SSP5-8.5). For that, four statistical metrics were used: Percent Bias (PBIAS), RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR), refined index of agreement (dr) and Pearson correlation coefficient (CORR). Furthermore, the comprehensive model rank (Mr rank) was applied to analyze whether the evolution of the CMIP models provided an improvement in the simulation of extreme climate events. Results reveal that CDD are the most challenging precipitation index to be simulated, while the best ones were PRCPTOT and R20mm. The model performance shows that CMIP3 has the best skill for Northeast Brazil, CMIP5 for Center-West, and CMIP6 for North, Southeast and South regions. Thus, at least for Brazil, the evolution of the ESMs from CMIP did not reflect a substantial improvement in the representation of precipitation climate extremes over all Brazilian regions. In addition, all the models across CMIP generations have difficulty in simulating the observed trends. This indicate that improvements are still needed in CMIP models. Despite the relative low performance in the historical climate, the climate projections indicate a consensus signal among most of precipitation climate extremes and CMIP generations, which increase its reliability. Overall, the extreme precipitation events are projected to be more severe, frequent, and long-lasting in all Brazilian regions, with the more pronounce changes expected in heavy rainfall and severe droughts in the central northern portion of Brazil and in the southern sector.
5	AMANDA FERREIRA SAMPAIO HYBRID PREDICTION OF ATMOSPHERIC VARIABLES TO CALCULATE THE WIND POTENTIAL FOR GREEN HYDROGEN PRODUCTION. Advisor : WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES JOSÉ MARIA BRABO ALVES JOÃO BOSCO VERÇOSA LEAL JUNIOR LUTERO CARMO DE LIMA Data: Aug 29, 2024 Show Abstract The study of the wind potential presents a significant importance in relation to the estimation of electricity production, helping companies that intend to invest in wind energy to choose the most appropriate location for the best use of this type of energy resource. In addition, the electrical energy from these large wind turbines can be used for the production of hydrogen. The study aims to use stochastic modeling to forecast wind speed, temperature and relative humidity with short and long term time series, in order to analyze the wind potential for five cities in the coastal region of the Northeast and estimate the production of hydrogen for the ammonia-based nitrogen fertilizer market. The wind speed data comes from five meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), which uses an anemometer with a height of 10 m. These stations are located in Northeastern Brazil: Fortaleza, Natal, São Luís, Recife, and Aracaju. These weather stations have periods of approximately 30 years, initially using monthly data. The analysis, modeling, simulation and forecasting with atmospheric variables are part of the study of energy potential, as it allows a better understanding of the nature of data variability, including seasonality, trend and randomness, and can detect small variations. For the analysis of climatological data, the complete time series without a time interval is often used. This implies that regardless of the size of the series, it is not appropriate to have missing data and it is necessary to use the data imputation technique. In this study, missing value imputation was evaluated by including a structural time series model. The wind speed, temperature, and relative humidity data from these coastal cities went through data analysis methods. These methods are composed of the data that will be modeled and the observed data. These will be compared with each other. In addition, the climatological data used in this study have undergone residual tests, accuracy tests, and forecasts and estimates for hydrogen production will be made from the hybrid forecast results. The project aims to contribute to the private wind energy sector, with the availability of a tool that helps investors in this area to choose the most appropriate location for the best use of this type of energy resource.
6	ANA TEENA BULCÃO DOS SANTOS Numerical study of the impact of urban expansion on the urban heat island in cities of the Brazilian Northeast Advisor : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA EDMILSON DIAS DE FREITAS HELBER BARROS GOMES JOÃO BOSCO VERÇOSA LEAL JUNIOR JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: Dec 13, 2024 Show Abstract The high growth rate of the urban population directly contributes to the increase in thenumber and territorial expansion of cities. As the urban area grows, a series of environmentalproblems emerge or intensify in the urban climate, one of which is the urban heat island, aphenomenon defined as the increase in air temperature in the urban center compared to itssurrounding rural areas. The Brazilian Northeast is influenced by the trade winds, and itscoastal region is affected by the circulation of sea and land breezes, making it necessary toinvestigate the interaction between the urban heat island (UHI) and breeze circulation. Theobjective of this study is to use an atmospheric model to characterize the urban heat island fortwo coastal cities in the Brazilian Northeast and simulate the impact of increased urbanizationon urban areas and its effect on local circulation. The cities of Fortaleza and Natal wereanalyzed. The WRF model version 4.3.1 was used alongside the dynamic downscalingmethod, with initial and boundary condition data from ERA-5 provided by the EuropeanCentre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The simulation period was fromNovember 1, 2019, to November 10, 2019, and hourly air temperature data at 2 meters wereobtained for Fortaleza (CE), Redencao (CE), Natal (RN), and Sao Goncalo do Amarante(RN). Initially, a nighttime urban heat island was observed in the studied cities, with a heatingpeak of 3.5°C during the early morning hours, consistent with the data obtained throughmodeling. Spatial analysis of the model indicated that, in Fortaleza, the UHI is confined to theextent of the city, and this positive temperature difference during the nighttime affects theland breeze circulation mechanism, as the ocean's temperature is similar to that of the urbanregion. For Natal, although the highest intensity point is concentrated in the city's centralregion, the land breeze is overridden due to the intensity of southeasterly trade winds in theeastern portion of the Brazilian Northeast. In the analysis of wind and vertical velocity fieldsat 850 hPa, several regions of ascending and descending movements within Fortaleza wereidentified, which may be related to smaller heat islands within the city, leading to an urbanbreeze circulation. For Natal, an ascending current was observed over the Potengi Riverregion and descending currents in its surroundings, indicating the occurrence of a river breezethat may contribute to thermal comfort in the area. Regarding the expansion of urban areas inFortaleza and Natal, it was observed that as urbanization increases, the intensity of the urbanheat island and the heated area also grow. In Fortaleza, urbanization may affect land breezecirculation, with a greater impact on heating over the continental surface compared to theocean. In Natal, urbanization impacts the local climate, making nighttime and early morning hours warmer. Regarding local winds, no change in the circulation pattern was observed;however, if the urbanization process becomes more intense, it will bring greater impacts onthe local climate and regional circulation.

2023

	Dissertations
1	LUIZ EDUARDO NUNES CHO LUCK REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING OF RADIATION BALANCE COMPONENTS OVER THE CAATINGA BIOME Advisor : CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA PEDRO RODRIGUES MUTTI THIAGO VALENTIM MARQUES Data: Feb 27, 2023 Show Abstract In recent years, regional modeling has proven to be one of the most powerful tools for climate science, from the operational field to future climate projections, models play a key role. This work aims to evaluate which of the radiation schemes present in the Regional Climate Model 4 (RegCM4.7) presents a better capacity to represent the balance of radiation (Rn), latent heat (E) and sensible heat (H) in the Caatinga. The study covers the years 2014 and 2015, with two numerical simulations, one using the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM) as a radiative transfer model and the second using the Community Climate Model 3 (CCM3) as parameterization. To validate the experiments, three sets of data obtained from a micrometeorological tower equipped with an eddy covariance (EC) system located at the Seridó Ecological Station (ESEC-Seridó), in Serra Negra do Norte/RN, Caatinga region were used. preserved. The evaluation of the results occurred through the evaluation of the errors, using the BIAS, the root mean square error (RMSE), the coefficient of agreement of Willmott (d) and the correlation (r). It was possible to verify that the model is capable of representing well the daily cycle of Rn, in addition to the average values, underestimating the minimum values and overestimating the maximum values. The results show that RegCM4 is able to represent the daily cycle of Rn well when analyzing the entire data series, however there are deficiencies for seasonal analyses, especially in the wet-dry and dry-wet transition seasons.When evaluating the RMSE it was possible to find the values of 160.11 W/m² for the EXP_RRTM and 158.16 W/m² for the EXP_CCM3, the BIAS values also presented similar results, the d was 0.89 for both simulations, indicating a strong similarity between simulated and observed data. In short, the simulations do not bring significant differences between them, indicating that both parameterizations are satisfactory for the region.
2	EDUARDO ALMEIDA DA SILVA Cloud Microphysics of precipitating clouds on the east coast of the Norheast of Brazil Advisor : WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLÊNIA RODRIGUES ALCÂNTARA DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES DAVID MENDES PEDRO RODRIGUES MUTTI WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: Feb 27, 2023 Show Abstract From this research, it is proposed to characterize the microphysical parameters of clouds that generate extreme precipitation events over the East Coast of the Northeast Region of Brazil (CLNEB), by seasonal period, between the years 1998 to 2014. The objective was to characterize the parameters: Integrated Rainwater Content – RWP (kg/m²), Integrated Ice Content – IWP (kg/m²), Surface Precipitation Rate – SP (mm/h), derived from the 2ACLIM product (Microwave Imager – MI sensor), Freezing Level Height – FH (m), Precipitation Rate (mm/h) and Rainfall Type, from the 2APR product (Precipitation Radar – PR sensor), data from the Tropical Rainfall satellite Measuring Mission (TRMM). To analyze these microphysical parameters, statistical methods and measurements were used, such as mean, standard deviation, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and non-parametric tests by Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn. Finally, a conceptual model was presented to characterize the microphysics of clouds that generate extreme precipitation in this locality. The main results showed that the seasonal periods from December to February and from March to May, in both products, presented higher amounts of estimated rainfall for the clouds that generate extreme precipitation over the CLNEB. The height of the freezing level ranged from 4400 to 5150 meters in relation to the altitude of the 0º C isotherm. However, it was found that there was no difference between the pairs of averages for this parameter between the seasonal periods from June to August and from September to November on CLNEB (p-value > 0.05). It was observed that the extreme precipitation of the CLNEB comes from severe convective clouds (71.36%) and stratiform clouds (28.64%), both cold clouds.
3	MARLÚCIA DE AQUINO PEREIRA Impacts of climate change on wind energy resources in South America through CMIP6 climate projections Advisor : DAVID MENDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DAVID MENDES JOSÉ FRANCISCO DE OLIVEIRA JÚNIOR PEDRO RODRIGUES MUTTI WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: Feb 28, 2023 Show Abstract This work is a research on the possible impacts of climate change on wind energy, with the general objective of analyzing the potential impact of climate change on wind energy resources in South America, quantifying the density of wind energy (derived from data of wind speed near the surface) from the future projections of CMIP6, obtaining how different from the past-present are the future scenarios for the production of this type of energy. The research will be carried out using data from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) of daily and monthly surface wind, in which they will be used, and obtained from the website of the “Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)” for 5 General Circulation Models Atmosphere (MCGA) with horizontal resolutions greater than 1.25° in latitude and longitude and with data for the future climate scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, all models wind data grids will be remapped to a common grid following an area-weighted bilinear interpolation. Data validation will be done using the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis (C3S). The conditions of changes in wind and energy density will be evaluated by analyzing the differences between the baseline (1995–2014) and future periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100), these analyzes will also be carried out seasonally. The results show that there is a high wind density for 3 of the 6 regions studied in South America, both in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.
4	DANIEL FELIPE DA SILVA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL EFFECTS ON WATER USE EFFICIENCY IN SAVANNAS UNDER DIFFERENT CLIMATE CONDITIONS Advisor : DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA PEDRO RODRIGUES MUTTI THIAGO VALENTIM MARQUES Data: Mar 3, 2023 Show Abstract Savanna ecosystems in semi-arid regions play a crucial role in global water and carbon cycles. Many researchers have investigated the hydrometeorological effects on carbon exchange and water use efficiency in these ecosystems, which play a key role in the global water and carbon cycle. These are highly sensitive to seasonal and interannual climate variations. Despite its importance, few studies investigate the relationship between carbon flux and water use efficiency in savannas. Therefore, in this study, we will describe 4 years (2010-2013) of data covering carbon and water fluxes in two areas of tropical savannas with different rainfall characteristics. The objective is to analyze the hydrometeorological effects on the water use efficiency of tropical savannas under different climatic seasonalities at different time scales. The increase in the frequency and severity of droughts is expected to have a profound impact on ecosystem structures and functionality, showing us results that differ from one habitat to another.
5	RITA DE CÁSSIA PAULO DOS SANTOS Illustrations as a didactic resource facilitating the teaching of climate change Advisor : PEDRO RODRIGUES MUTTI COMMITTEE MEMBERS : PEDRO RODRIGUES MUTTI KELLEN CARLA LIMA GEOVANY PACHELLY GALDINO DANTAS Data: Mar 6, 2023 Show Abstract Climate change is one of the main environmental and socioeconomic threats of the 21st century and its impacts are expected to intensify over the years. In this context, education plays a key role in tackling climate change, contributing to social engagement and the successful implementation of public policies on this issue. The present work addresses the study of climate change, directing the theme to a teaching proposal with illustrations. The objective of this work is to propose the elaboration and validation of a didactic sequence supported by the theory of meaningful learning for the insertion of the socio-scientific question in the generation of critical knowledge about climate changes in basic education. The work consists of the elaboration of an illustrated booklet that was validated by experts in climate change using the Delphi method. After the validation process, the booklet was applied to students in the 7th year of elementary school at the state school Cosme Ferreira Marques in Santa Cruz/RN. Questionnaires were used in order to identify students' previous conceptions about climate change. Subsequently, the booklet was applied according to a specific didactic sequence and a new round of questionnaires was applied to assess the acquired knowledge. In view of the sequence of activities developed, with the aim of evaluating the educational product, from the presentation of the booklet, it was possible to identify that the students were actively involved with the theme addressed, they felt more motivated with the proposal exposed in the educational product, which increases the likelihood of learning; the booklet, used as support material, is an efficient tool when the subject addressed deals with climate change.
6	MÁRCIA REJANE DOS SANTOS GOMES MAIA ANALYSIS OF SURFACE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS IN THE CITY OF SALVADOR-BA Advisor : PABLO ELI SOARES DE OLIVEIRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : PABLO ELI SOARES DE OLIVEIRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA GABRIEL BRITO COSTA Roberto Fernando da Fonseca Lyra Data: Mar 8, 2023 Show Abstract The Urban Heat Island phenomenon occurs mainly in cities with a high degree of urbanization, and is directly related to the accelerated and disorganized urban growth resulting from the occupation and transformation of the natural environment without any adequate planning. In this context, this work was carried out with the objective of analyzing and identifying the phenomenon heat islands in the urban areas of the city of Salvador-BA, from the digital images generated by the operational sensor Land Imager–OLI and Thermal Infrared Sensor–TIRS on board the Landsat8 satellite for selected dates in the period from 2013 to 2022. Thus, from the image processing maps of surface temperature and NDVI were generated for the city of Salvador, and six neighborhoods were selected for analysis of surface heat islands: Cassange (rural reference); Center; Business; Grande do Retiro Farm; Platform and New Brasilia. Therefore, the results showed an inverse pattern of the NDVI with respect to surface temperature. The heat islands were more intense in neighborhoods formed by areas of greater urban density and population density, with little or no presence of green areas. It is concluded that the areas with vegetation cover low temperatures are observed due to the shading produced by the trees. This demonstrates how these central urban areas are the most affected by the intensification of the heat island phenomenon, while at the same time confirming the significant role of green areas in urban centers.
7	MARIA UILHIANA GOMES DE ANDRADE GEOSTATISTICAL ANALYSIS TO STUDY THE SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL EXTREMES IN THE PIANCÓ-PIRANHAS-AÇU CATCHMENT AREA Advisor : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO COMMITTEE MEMBERS : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES GABRIEL BRITO COSTA ADELENA GONCALVES MAIA ANA CARLA DOS SANTOS GOMES Data: Apr 27, 2023 Show Abstract This study aims to analyze the spatial variability of precipitation in the Piancó-Piranhas-AçúPiancó-Piranhas-Açú (BHPPA) through methodologies based on Geostatistics. During the work, theoretical and conceptual conceptions about extreme weather precipitation, possible environmental impacts, and socioeconomic impacts. In addition, steps were discussed how the role of Geostatistics in the study of the spatial variability of precipitation, capturing the degree of spatial continuity of accumulated annual precipitation. Among the available methodologies, it was used the Ordinary Kriging and Indicator, which are two techniques of Geostatistical interpolation widely used for spatial interpolation. With Ordinary Kriging, the spatial variability of precipitation was mapped. With the Ordinary Kriging mapped the spatial variability of annual precipitation, and with the Kriging Indicatrix mapped the spatial variability of the risk of rainfall. With Ordinary Kriging we mapped the spatial variability of annual rainfall, and with the Indicative Kriging we mapped the spatial variability of the risk of extreme rainfall events in the BHPPA, through the percentiles. Finally, it was found that the rainiest four-month period with the distribution corresponded from January to April, with the peak in March rainy months included May, June and July, and the driest months were from August to November. In addition, it was also found that the driest areas are to the north of the basin, in Rio Grande do Norte together with the extreme eastern part of the Seridó Paraibano, moving westward, in the central region one finds accumulations of and finally, at the end of the westward direction are the largest rainfall accumulations. accumulations of precipitation.
8	MAILSON PEREIRA ALVES Diurnal and Seasonal Variations in Carbon, Water and Energy Exchanges in a Primary Forest in the Amazon – Brazil Advisor : GABRIEL BRITO COSTA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA GABRIEL BRITO COSTA KEILA RÊGO MENDES Data: Aug 7, 2023 Show Abstract Carbon exchange in forested areas, quantified by Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) and associated with phenological satellite measurements, plays an important role in understanding biosphere-atmosphere interactions in Amazonia, considering the accelerated deforestation in recent years. Using data from flux measurements tower in the Caxiuanã-PA(2005-2008), climatic data, CO2 exchange estimated by eddy covariance and satellite vegetation indices (MODIS), this work aimed to describe the energy flux, climatic and carbon cycle patterns of the site, correlating its gross primary productivity with satellite vegetation indices. The results found were: i) marked seasonality of climatic variables and energy fluxes, with evapotranspiration and air temperature at the site following the annual march of solar radiation and precipitation; ii) energy fluxes in phase and dependent on the available energy; iii) the site as a carbon sink, varying the intensity according to the site's annual water availability; iv) low correlation between productivity data and vegetation indices, corroborating literature data on these variables in this type of environment. The results show the importance of preserving this type of environment for the global climatic balance and the need to improve satellite estimates for this region.
	Thesis
1	LANZOERQUES GOMES DA SILVA JÚNIOR ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IN THE LAST GLACIAL AGE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE: COMPARISON WITH THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL PERIOD Advisor : DAVID MENDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA DAVID MENDES GYRLENE APARECIDA MENDES DA SILVA JOSÉ FRANCISCO DE OLIVEIRA JÚNIOR WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: Aug 31, 2023 Show Abstract The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) occurred about 21,000 years before the present (21 Ka BP), a period marked by the decrease in air temperature and mean sea level, as well as the increase in surfaces covered by continental and sea ice, obtained through proxy records and in paleoclimate reconstructions, being naturally caused by the change in orbital parameters known as Milankovitch cycles. The use of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) such as the Simplified Parameterization, primitivE Equation Dynamics and the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (SPEEDY/HYCOM) can simulate the climate conditions and the atmospheric circulation pattern of the LGM. The objective of this study is to evaluate the physical and dynamic characteristics of the atmospheric conditions of the LGM period in the Southern Hemisphere through simulations with the SPEEDY/HYCOM coupled model, distinguishing the climatic behavior of meteorological variables and transient systems of the Pre-Industrial period (PI). For this, a simulation of 1500 years was performed with the coupled model SPEEDY/HYCOM with the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheet Model (AGISM) to represent better the melting water input from the ice sheets to the ocean, based on the data of insolation, orbital parameters and concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHG), adjusted to values of 21 Ka BP. The PI experiment, on the other hand, is carried out using a control climate that began in the year 1870 and ended in 2000, in which the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is replicated with an increase of 1% per year from the year 1950. Preliminary results showed cooler surface air temperature conditions in all seasons of the year for LGM, especially in winter, with values close to -70°C. A comparison more objective between the summer and winter seasons of both periods, it was found that part of the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean was warmer in the UMG, mainly in summer. On the rainfall regime, in general, the seasonal average in the PI showed greater volume in all seasons, especially in winter in tropical latitudes, particularly in the northeast sector of South America and the oceanic region north of Australia. Another aspect refers to the lower volume of rainfall in mid and high latitudes during LGM in all seasons, where in Antarctica it occurs up to 1 mm/day, while in the PI period values can reach 2 mm/day in parts of the coast of the frozen continent.
2	LIZANDRO PEREIRA DE ABREU CHARACTERIZATION OF LIGHTNING OCCURRENCE IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF BRAZIL, USING REMOTE SENSING Advisor : WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CLÊNIA RODRIGUES ALCÂNTARA DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES ENRIQUE VIEIRA MATTOS WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES WENDELL RONDINELLI GOMES FARIAS Data: Aug 31, 2023 Show Abstract Due to its aggressive and devastating characteristics, lightning constituted in the history of humanity the central observations point of several scientific communities around the world, causing the evolution of scientific knowledge about the phenomenon. However, our ability to represent its spatial and temporal variability, as well as your relationship with other environmental characteristics, remains a key challenge. It is estimated that about 60-75 million lightning strikes occur annually, which are responsible for the death of approximately 132 people every year in Brazil. The Northeast region of Brazil (NEB) concentrates 18% of all deaths across the entire national territory, and if we consider the population of the different regions, the state of Piauí had the highest mortality rate in the region (1.8 deaths per million ); this value being much higher than the national rate (0.8) and NEB (0.5). In this sense, the present work proposed to evaluate the occurrence of lightning in the Northeast region of Brazil, characterizing its relationship with the microphysics of clouds and natural disasters. Within this scope, data from two different orbital platforms were used: i) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), data from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS), TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) sensors were used. The first provides data on the lightning occurrence throughout the Earth's tropical zone and the last two provide information on the clouds microphysical characteristics and estimation of the precipitation rate; ii) from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-16), data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) sensors on the occurrence and location of lightning and Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) were used, a 16-channel sensor, 2 of which are visible , 4 in the near infrared and 10 in the infrared. First, the TRMM data were analyzed in order to seek to establish a relationship between the lightning occurrence and the clouds microphysical characteristics (ice water path, rain water path, freezing height level, convective precipitation and surface precipitation), comparing them according to lightning occurrence classes, spatial location and atmospheric profiles. Subsequently, a distribution of the lightning measured by the GLM was carried out, in order to understand its spatial and temporal variability. Finally, we also evaluate the relationship between the lightning parameters and the occurrence of natural disasters in the NEB. The states of Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia concentrate the regions with the highest lightning density. A higher occurrence lightning is associated with higher values of ice water path (> 38.9 kg.m−2), rain water path (>2 kg.m−2), convective precipitation (>5 mm.h− 1) and surface precipitation (>7 mm.h−1), in addition to slightly higher freezing height level values. Regions with high lightning density, on average, do not have lightning with large area, energy and duration. The Intertropical Convergence Zone, in addition to being important for precipitation, is also a system that generates a significant amount of lightning, being commonly related to natural disasters in coverage area. It is expected that, with the establishment of the sites and periods of greater occurrences and the characteristics of lightning, as well as the definition of the participation of each microphysical variable studied in the lightning occurrence, the understanding regarding the phenomenon can increase, in addition to the decrease in fatalities associated with him.

2022

	Dissertations
1	WELLINGSON FARIAS DE OLIVEIRA MODELING OF THE HYDROLOGICAL REGIME OF THE PIRACICABA AND ALTO SAO FRANCISCO RIVERS BASINS Advisor : JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DAVID MENDES JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA THOMAS CHRISTIAN MARCEL MARTIN Data: Jan 28, 2022 Show Abstract Quantifying the change in the hydrological regime and its vulnerability plays a crucial role in defining and implementing sustainable management for water in a changing environment. Associated with the growing discrepancy between supply and demand of water resources, it is essential to know the changes in the flow regime modified by climate change. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on the flow regime of the Piracicaba river basin and Upper São Francisco river basin . For this, part of the uncertainties of hydroclimatic projections was considered, from hydrological simulations using two hydrological models, the SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure) and the HYMOD (Conceptual Hydrological Model). These models were forced with regionalized climate data (~25 km) from the MIROC and CANESM models, which integrate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Global Circulation Models, for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP). 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in the near future (2021-2046). Projections for the flow regime of both river basins in the future climate indicate, with a lower degree of uncertainty, a considerable increase in the long-term average flows, followed by an increase in the extreme maximum flows. Such a future hydroclimatic framework indicates the need for greater attention to the safety of the reservoirs in these basins, as well as actions to contain possible floods. Regarding water availability, for the Upper São Francisco River basin, the minimum flow (Q95%) followed the trend of increasing projections of the long-term average flow and maximum flows. On the other hand, this projection was not confirmed in total for the Piracicaba river basin, where the projection of the minimum flow (Q95%) may be lower than the average minimum flow observed in recent climate.
2	ALANDERSON FIRMINO DE LUCAS THE IMPACT OF DESERTIFICATION ON HYDROLOGY: A MODELING STUDY FOR THE SERIDO RIVER BASIN Advisor : JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : GABRIEL BRITO COSTA JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA LEONARDO MORENO DOMINGUES VENERANDO EUSTAQUIO AMARO Data: Jan 31, 2022 Show Abstract Land use in the Seridó river basin is the main factor in the intensification of desertification in this region, whose phenomenon interferes with the hydrology of the basin. Among its effects on the soil are the low quality and the change in the availability of water resources. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impacts of desertification on the hydrological response and on the water balance of the Seridó river basin, using hydrological modeling. The hydrological model used was SWAT, which proved to be an effective tool, as it satisfactorily simulated the seasonality of the monthly flow (Q) in four tributary sub-basins of the Seridó River, simulating the observed flow variance by more than 60%. In the evaluation of the dexterity of the model, it was observed that the simulation of the Q with greater dexterity were those equal to or less than Q5% (maximum flows) and the PBIAS (RMSE) of the simulated flow was ~ 30% (8.3 m³.s-1 ) and 50% (11.8 m³.s-1) for the calibration and model validation periods, respectively. To assess desertification, two land use and land cover scenarios (LULC, Land Use and Land Cover) were developed for the hydrographic basin: the control scenario, where the vegetation cover of the basin was that observed in 1985; and the desertification scenario, where desert areas were included from 1985 to 2019. The historical and gradual advance of the desert (15.39% of the basin area) altered the annual water balance, increasing the total runoff (Qtot ) by 6.95%, due to the significant increase in surface runoff (Qsurf), which increased by 12.08%. This change altered the maximum flow regime associated with floods, which were considerably increased in the desertification scenario. In annual mean absolute terms, the changes were 14 mm.month-1 and +11 mm.month-1 in the wet season, respectively. On the other hand, subsurface runoff (Qlat) decreased by 15.34% in relation to the annual balance, although it increased by 1.5 mm.month-1 in the rainy season. The annual evapotranspiration (ET) () reduced by 4.18%, which corresponded to -5 (-2) mm.month-1 in the rainy (dry) season. The same impact occurred with soil water content (SW) and percolation (Wperc). In these components, the average annual reductions were 3.79% and 1.96%, -45 mm.month-1 and -4 mm.month-1 in the rainy season, respectively. In spatial terms, with desertification ET, SW, Wperc (Qtot, Qsurf and Qlat), were significantly reduced (increased) in the central-west region of the basin. Studies using remote surface sensing confirm that desertification in the semi-arid region of northeastern Brazil has been installed and has progressed annually, at least since the 1980s. Studies evaluating the hydrological effects caused by this process in the theoretical sphere are rare, or inexistent, that is, hydrological modeling. This study contributes in this direction, and in general, we observed that desertification increased the extremes of maximum flow, while it deteriorated the hydrological conditions, locally and in the areas adjacent to the desert regions, with the reduction of the water content in the soil and the percolation. As a result, the maintenance of natural and agricultural ecosystems will be harmed, as they will have a lower supply of water for the ET, and reduced percolation, unbalance the groundwater system.
3	MARINETE DA SILVA FERREIRA VARIABILIDADE DO CONTEÚDO DE OZÔNIO DA REDE SHADOZ EM DUAS ESTAÇÕES TROPICAIS Advisor : DAVID MENDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DAMARIS KIRSCH PINHEIRO DAVID MENDES FRANCISCO RAIMUNDO DA SILVA LUCAS VAZ PERES Data: Mar 17, 2022 Show Abstract Ozone (O3) is very important for the planet, as it is a natural gas that filters the sun's ultraviolet radiation and thus reduces the harmful effects of type B ultraviolet radiation (UV-B) that reach Earth. a protective shield and hence the importance of studying stratospheric O3. The study aims to identify the modes of seasonal and interannual variability of ozone in Natal, using vertical ozone profile data on mixing ratio from the SHADOZ network station and observed data from ERA5 for 2 years of data (1998-2018) to height of 29 km. With the calculation of climatologies and wavelet analysis and comparing ozone anomalies with climatic indices and discovering how the variability behaves. It was possible to observe that in the monthly series 1998-2018 for the heights from 0 to 30 km of SHADOZ, there are peaks with higher intensities of O3 in the range of 27 to 30. The climatology for these same heights shows that the highest concentrations were between February and April and the lowest between May and July with a high standard deviation between 25 and 30 km. The anomaly profile shows that they increase and decrease every two years, with some years stronger. The trend of O3 from SHADOZ and ERA remained in the series studied at 29km, with low variability over time and it was observed in the relative monthly differences that SHADOZ in relation to ERA 5 R2 was high (0.80), with an RMSE of 6% , underestimation of ERA5 in relation to SHADOZ (1.69% ± 13.7%) and MABE with a value of 7.42% ± 13.7%. It was observed that in the Hovmöller diagram the monthly and annual evolution of O3 of ERA5 for the years 1979 to 2018 in 29km, where from July to November the ozone maximums occur, highlighting that for 85/86, 95 and 2015 and the minimums from March to June, with greater intensity between the years 2009 and 2011. A seasonal variability was identified with higher values in the months of August, September and October. The climatology of SHADOZ and ERA5 (98/18) in 29km and ERA5 from 1979 to 2018, showed that the three series had their maximum between the months of February and March and September and October and the minimum between May and July, with a cycle semi-annual set. The wavelets and comparison of O3 anomalies with climatic indices for SHADOZ and ERA5 at 29km showed that the quasi-biennial oscillation has a greater influence on O3, ENSO and Solar flux do not influence O3 in Natal.
4	JOICY DA SILVA PINTO DIURNAL CYCLE PRECIPITATION OF NORTHEAST BRAZIL Advisor : CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : LUANA ALBERTANI PAMPUCH CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES Data: Mar 18, 2022 Show Abstract The diurnal rainfall variability has a spatial behavior that strongly depends on surface conditions and is related to variations in local circulations, topography and contrast in land cover and use. Understanding and simulating the daily rainfall cycle in a region is important for weather forecasting and for evaluating the efficiency of dynamic climate system models. Few studies have investigated the behavior of the diurnal precipitation cycle in the NEB region and, knowing that the evaluation of the diurnal precipitation cycle is an important test for the consistency analysis of a regional dynamic model, the objective of this project is to analyze the characteristics of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over NEB from the perspective of in situ observations and with regional dynamic modelling. The simulations will be carried out with the Regional Climate Model version 4.6 (RegCM4.6) in different periods. For the evaluation of the simulations, 6 years will be chosen (2008 to 2014). For the treatment of wet processes, the model considers two cumulus parameterization schemes (Grell and Kain-Fritsch). The validation of the simulation data in relation to the observed data will be done through statistical tests such as: ANOVA, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Square Error (RMSE). Precipitation observations will be obtained from 76 automatic stations, managed by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). From this study, we intend to answer questions about the reliability of the model and adequately represent the day cycle in the NEB, as well as the variability of the diurnal cycle in different subregions of the NEB.
5	PATRICIA CATARINE DE SOUSA COSTA . Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES PEDRO RODRIGUES MUTTI SAMIRA DE AZEVEDO SANTOS EMILIAVACA Data: Mar 25, 2022 Show Abstract .
6	ANA MARIA SOUSA MARQUES . Advisor : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA KEILA RÊGO MENDES Data: Aug 31, 2022 Show Abstract .
	Thesis
1	BIANCCA CORREIA DE MEDEIROS MODELOS DE DADOS INFLACIONADOS DE ZEROS PARA A ANÁLISE DA FREQUÊNCIA DE SECA AGRÍCOLA PARA O SEMIÁRIDO BRASILEIRO Advisor : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO COMMITTEE MEMBERS : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES EDICLÊ DE SOUZA FERNANDES DUARTE LAYARA CAMPELO DOS REIS Data: Feb 18, 2022 Show Abstract A agricultura é um ramo das atividades humana que depende das condições climáticas e que, apesar dos avanços na tecnologia agrícola, essa produção é em grande parte dependente do tempo e do clima. Conhecer os padrões de precipitação em regiões marcadas por agricultura de sequeiro é de fundamental importância para o gerenciamento da produção agrícola e a gestão dos recursos hídricos. Dentre as variáveis que caracterizam a precipitação, aparece o período seco agrícola, definidos como períodos secos dentro da estação chuvosa. Considerando a influência que os períodos secos agrícola exercem nas atividades agrícolas e os potenciais benefícios que os estudos desse evento possam trazer para a região do Semiárido Brasileiro este trabalho tem como objetivo a previsão meteorológica e agrometeorológica para a ocorrência desse fenômeno. Serão utilizados os dados disponibilizados pela Global Precipitation Climatology Centre [WINDOWS-1252?]– GPCC, e pelo Sistema de Gestão da Informação e do Conhecimento do Semiárido Brasileiro [WINDOWS-1252?]– SIGSAB. Dessa forma será utilizado o software R para aplicar uma estatística descritiva por meio de tabelas e gráficos no período de 1979 a 2014. Na análise dos dados muitas vezes encontramos dados de contagem onde a quantidade de zeros excede aquela esperada por uma determinada distribuição tal que não é possível fazer uso dos modelos de regressão usuais. Além disso, o excesso de zeros pode fazer com que exista sobredispersão nos dados. Sendo assim, neste trabalho serão utilizados modelos inflacionados de zero na análise, onde a variável resposta utilizada será a precipitação diária e as covariáveis associadas serão temperatura, umidade e vento. Serão utilizados os modelos de Poisson e o modelo Binomial Negativo Inflacionado de Zeros.Espera-se que seja possível prever a ocorrência do período seco agrícola para o semiárido Brasileiro e dessa forma poder diminuir os impactos desse fenômeno na produtividade agrícola.
2	ALCINDO MARIANO DE SOUZA . Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA PEDRO RODRIGUES MUTTI ROSARIA RODRIGUES FERREIRA THIAGO VALENTIM MARQUES Data: Mar 7, 2022 Show Abstract .
3	MARIA LEIDINICE DA SILVA Assessment of climate change impact over Tropical South American using dynamical downscaling: historical and future Advisor : CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES ANA CAROLINA VASQUES FREITAS TERCIO AMBRIZZI Data: Jun 24, 2022 Show Abstract Regionalized simulations with the Regional Climate Modeling system version 4.7 (RegCM4.7) coupled with the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) under low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios that interact with Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) were carried out on tropical South America (AST). With the objective of evaluating the Added Value (AV) of the regional modeling through dynamic downscaling during the historical period (1986–2005), as well as analyzing the regional aspects simulated by the model in reporting the projections of climate change in the distant future (2080 –2099). In view of this, this research consisted of three main steps: i) initially, the Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method - among other analyzes - was used to evaluate and rank General Circulation Models (GCM) that are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) when reproducing surface variables over AST sub-regions (SAMZ, ENEB, MATOPIBA); ii) in addition to demonstrating a selection methodology that avoids less realistic input models, after selecting the GCM, dynamic downscaling was performed on the AST domain and, consequently, the validation of the simulations; iii) finally, the climatic extremes were evaluated. The climate over the domain of interest will be characterized based on the variables of precipitation and air temperature near the surface. The average climate of the historical period was compared with the monthly dataset of the Climate Research Unit version ts4.02 (CRU). In turn, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) daily dataset was used to validate climate extremes. The selection results point to the HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-ACESS1.0 (MME, NorESM-ME) GCMs as the best to represent precipitation (temperature) over AST sub-regions. Leading considering the computational limitations, only HadGEM-ES was selected to direct RegCM4.7 and generate the necessary climate simulations and projections for the following stages of this study. Regarding dynamic downscaling, RegCM4.7 presents AV in the spatial representation of precipitation and temperature over the Northeast region of Brazil and part of the Andes Mountains, mainly in winter. However, it does not adequately represent the precipitation over the Amazon Basin, especially in summer. The average climate projections indicate that the more refined RegCM4.7 simulation improves the spatial patterns projected from the coarser resolution simulation of HadGEM2-ES and even modifies the precipitation signal in some cases, e.g., in autumn. Regarding temperature, both models project an increase with greater magnitude for RCP8.5. With respect to climate extremes, the RCM projects more significant changes in rainfall and temperature than the driving GCM, indicating greater sensitivity to changes in extremes. Although some differences and biases still persist, properly configured RegCM4.7 is a viable tool for climate studies.
4	JEAN SOUZA DOS REIS DYNAMIC AND CLIMATOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF BOMB CYCLONES IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE Advisor : WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA DAVID MENDES DIEGO OLIVEIRA DE SOUZA SAMIRA DE AZEVEDO SANTOS EMILIAVACA WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: Nov 30, 2022 Show Abstract A Bomb Cyclone (BC) is an Extratropical Cyclone (EC) that presents a rapid pressure decay in the center of the system in the order of 1 hPa per hour for 24 hours. This system has gained popularity in recent years as it poses serious threats to the safety of maritime transport, fishing, maritime operations and other activities in coastal regions and the recent impacts on the population. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the physical, dynamic and phase characteristics of BC in the Southern Hemisphere through a robust climatology from 1979 to 2020. In addition, the existence of a trend in the number of BC over time and the influence of Systems Frontals (SF) in Natural Disasters (DN) in Southern Brazil. It is expected that the results can serve as a basis for improving services such as numerical simulations and be used as prognostics to assist in risk management with a set of preventive and mitigating actions in order to minimize the impact of these systems suffered by the population. Reanalyzed data from the ERA5 set from the Europe Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were used, with a spatial resolution of 0.125°x0.125° and 2.5°x2.5° and a temporal resolution of 6 hours in the period from 1979 to 2019, natural disaster data kindly provided by the National Center for Monitoring and Alerts for Natural Disasters (Cemaden) from 2016 to 2020, daily accumulated precipitation data, estimated from the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) algorithm (version 5) of the mission of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) 0.25°x0.25° from 2016 to 2020 and surface synoptic charts from the Weather Prediction Center for Climatic Studies/National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE) at the four main synoptic times (00, 06 , 12 and 18 UTC) from 2016 to 2020. For the detection and tracking of BC, a cyclone tracking scheme was used in pressure level fields at mean sea level every six hours. To evaluate the three-dimensional structure of cyclones, the Cyclone Phase Diagram (CPS) was used. Student's t-test, Shapiro-Wilk, Mann-Kendall, Pettit and Sen's estimation tests were used to determine the existence, magnitude and break point of the trend in the BC time series. The total number of BC was 587, with the highest occurrence (44.2%) in winter and the lowest (6.1%) in summer. The spatial density of BC in the HS showed good agreement with that seen in the literature, seen mainly around Antarctica, in a kind of spiral around it, in the cyclogenetic area of AS southeast of Uruguay over the South Atlantic Ocean, in the Southeast of mainland Australia and the Tasman Sea. The physical and dynamic characteristics, such as speed, lifetime, pressure gradient and penetration rate, showed good agreement with other works in the literature. There was a trend in the number of BC over the years with statistical evidence. There has been an increase of one BC every 4 years since 1999. Strong evidence has been identified that more than 35% of BC that form in the HS follow the theoretical cyclone model known as Shapiro-Keyser. In the evaluation of DN caused by the passage of a SF over southern Brazil, it was observed that the most affected regions are the coast of Santa Catarina and the central-eastern region of Rio Grande do Sul. In addition, it was found that the FS that generate ND are different from the other FS that affect the South of Brazil. The main differences noted were: a pattern of increase and accumulation of convective potential energy available west of southern Brazil before the DN, especially in spring; a considerable increase in specific humidity at low levels associated with runoff east of the Andes; and an anticyclonic circulation at high levels similar to the Bolivian high. The analysis of the behavior of the rain indicates that it is higher in the two days before the disaster. The average values of precipitation identified, together with the observed atmospheric behavior, allow identifying the potential occurrence of a disaster in the cities of southern Brazil in the passage of a frontal system.

2021

	Dissertations
1	AMANDA CAROLINA DA SILVA QUEIROZ POLARIMETRIC RADAR SIGNATURES OF PRECIPITANT SYSTEMS ACTING IN EAST OF NORTHEAST BRAZIL Advisor : WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA ENRIQUE VIEIRA MATTOS RÔMULO AUGUSTO JUCÁ OLIVEIRA THIAGO SOUZA BISCARO WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: Feb 12, 2021 Show Abstract A Doppler S-Band polarimetric weather radar is an important tool for estimation precipitation and, consequently, for assenssing of meteorolofical systems operating in the region covered by the radar. Currently, we have a radar installed in the city of Parnamirim (metropolitan region of Natal), Rio Grande do Norte, in the East of Northeast Brazil, operated by the National Center for Monitoring and Natural Disaster Alerts (Cemaden). Due to the ability of the radar to estimate precipitation in three dimensions and the physical properties of hydrometeors, this work proposes the following objectives: i) validate the radar estimates with automatic rain gauges, ii) evaluate the polarimetric characteristics of the precipitating systems in the year 2014 and iii) analyze a natural disaster event that occurred in the region using radar data. The study area is centered on the area monitored by radar with a coverage of 181 thousand km2, which was divided into two sub-regions for a more punctual analysis in which they were defined as R1 (West Region) and R2 (East Region) were defined for presenting different precipitation regimes. For this, data from the polarimetric variables were used: horizontal reflectivity, differential reflectivity, specific differential phase and correlation coefficient extracted from the volumetric sweeps of the radar and data from 4 rainfall stations from Cemaden and INMET that are distributed in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. The data were used in statistical analysis through the application of techniques and calculations of statistical errors and exploratory analyzes with the generation of representative fields, for example, frequency histograms and vertical mean profiles. The validation of the radar data showed the instrument's ability to estimate the daily precipitation of the regions, presenting an average BIAS of approximately -5 mm/day and an average correlation of 0.74. The radar showed high sensitivity in the warm and mixed phases of the precipitating systems with different top heights of 20 dBZ, in addition to showing that the two regions studied have completely different microphysical signatures, with R1 marked by intense and deep convection, with systems reaching height of 15 km with top of 20 dBZ and R2 marked by stratiform precipitation. This study is the first to use polarimetric radar data to present the microphysical differences of the systems in Northeast Brazil, therefore it represents a significant contribution in the literature.
	Thesis
1	EDICLÊ DE SOUZA FERNANDES DUARTE MODELING AND ASSIMILATION OF ATMOSPHERIC AEROSOLS OVER SÃO PAULO - BRAZIL WITH THE REGIONAL CHEMISTRY TRANSPORT EURAD-INVERSE MODEL ON HIGH-RESOLUTION Advisor : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN COMMITTEE MEMBERS : HENDRIK ELBERN ILAN KOREN CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN MARIA DE FATIMA ANDRADE NILTON MANUEL ÉVORA DO ROSÁRIO TACIANA TOLEDO DE ALMEIDA ALBUQUERQUE Data: Mar 4, 2021 Show Abstract A high-resolution air quality study over the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP), Brazil is presented using the EURopean Air Pollution Dispersion - Inverse Model (EURAD-IM) for a highly detailed simulation of the air pollution plume interactions. In these first case studies on particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) modeled data are evaluated with observational in-situ data from 24 surface stations from the Environmental Company of the State of São Paulo (CETESB) and a Lidar. The two presented case studies, focusing on July 10-13 and October 22-25, 2016, show how different meteorological conditions affect the transport of pollution plumes over the MASP originating from (i) central South America, associated to biomass burning activities, (ii) from the interior of the state of São Paulo (SP), (iii) the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro (RMRJ) 429 km apart, including transportation in the opposite direction, (iv) the port and city of Santos, as well as Campinas and contrary direction. Three simulations were carried out, the first using the emissions inventory of EDGAR v4.3.2, the second replacing the category of land transport emissions with data from theVehicle Emissions Model (VEIN) with high spatial resolution and the third using the three dimensional variational data assimilation technique (3D-VAR) for PM2.5. The performance of the model varied from excellent to good agreement with the observations varying within the standard deviations and elucidated the role of long-range transport of particulate matter from central South America and local transport within the state of SP, affecting the air quality at MASP. For the period from July 10-13, the results of PM10 and PM2.5 in the simulations without assimilation for the domain with 1 km x 1 km resolution underestimated the observations, and the bias varied between 8 - 41%. For MASP center, EURAD-IM performed better using VEIN emissions. The second case study in October revealed that air pollution plumes from the MASP and MARJ interact with each other, through two possible routes: via the Paraíba Valley or via the ocean between the coast of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. For October 22-25, EURAD-IM performance was more accurate outside the city of SP where the simulation underestimated observations, and the bias varied between 2 - 41%. For the center of MASP, the model strongly overestimated the PM10 and PM2.5 observations. The 3D-VAR assimilation was also used to show how observations may be used to improve model simulations by using radii of influence.
2	MARCOS SAMUEL MATIAS RIBEIRO NATURAL DISASTERS IN NORTHEAST BRAZIL: CLIMATIC, SOCIOSANITARY AND POPULATION ASPECTS Advisor : LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE COMMITTEE MEMBERS : IDEMAURO ANTONIO RODRIGUES DE LARA JORIO BEZERRA CABRAL JUNIOR KELLEN CARLA LIMA MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES VENERANDO EUSTAQUIO AMARO Data: Apr 23, 2021 Show Abstract Over the years, climatic variability in the Northeast region of Brazil (NEB) has made extreme weather events more frequent, with periods of excess and deficit of precipitation, causing great impacts on society and being one of the factors that potentiates the numbers of Natural Disasters. The dry seasons and droughts, torrents and floods have been causing great damage to the population. The objective of this study was to analyze the occurrences of natural disasters in the Northeast of Brazil, identifying the potential associated factors, regarding meteorological, social, health and environmental conditions, in addition to estimating the respective risk probabilities to the recorded events. The first article aimed to identify the temporal space distribution of the records of natural disasters in the period from 1991 to 2013, characterizing the occurrences of disasters in the mesoregions, considering the meteorological and socio-health aspects. The Grade of Membership methodology based on fuzzy logic was used to define the profiles in the region. In the second article, The Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape was used in order to estimate the relationship between the events of natural disasters in the face of extreme climatic, socio-sanitary and population conditions, considering the most frequent events for the Region, such as dry seasons/droughts, floods and torrents. Finally, the third article culminated with a case study in order to analyze the atmospheric conditions associated with the event of intense precipitation caused by an Easterly Wave Disturbances (EWD), as well as the environmental conditions related to the mass movement that occurred between June 14th and 15th, 2014, in the district of Mãe Luiza, Natal/RN. The results of article 1 pointed to the characterization of three profiles with different characteristics. Profile 1 presented favorable mesoregions to the indicators of excessive precipitation, with events of torrents and droughts, in addition to better social and health conditions and a higher percentage of urbanization, located in the eastern part of the Northeast of Brazil. Profile 2 aggregated the units that are disadvantaged by the rain regime, have greater occurrences of drought and moderate conditions for the social, sanitary and urbanization aspects, covering part of the boundaries of the Brazilian Semiarid Region. Profile 3 was characterized by conditions conducive to indicators of excessive rainfall, with greater frequency of flooding, low urbanization and disadvantaged in social and health conditions. Article 2 revealed the predominance of drought disasters in the Brazilian Northeast, representing 81.1% of the decrees. The results showed that the components of excessive rain and humid climate conditions are positively associated with torrents and floods and negatively with drought. However, the CDD contributed in an inverse way to torrents and floods, as would be expected. As regarding environmental aspects, inadequate sanitation and garbage collection services contributed significantly to the increase in drought and torrent disasters. As regarding drought, the precariousness of the water supply was also a factor in the increase in drought disasters. In the third article, it was found, based on the analysis of the geological, geomorphological, pedological conditions, defluvium coefficient, vegetation cover and land use and cover, an expressive area classified to have high and very high vulnerability to mass movements that, enhanced by intense rainfall from the EWD, caused the disaster in the neighborhood of Mãe Luiza. Knowledge about the behavior of occurrences of natural disasters over the years and their relationship with socio-health and population factors can support the management of actions and effective public policies for the mitigation of natural disasters.
3	TÁSIA MOURA CARDOSO DO VALE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE EXTREMS AND WATER BALANCE ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY Advisor : LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE COMMITTEE MEMBERS : Edna Lúcia da Rocha Linhares BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES JORIO BEZERRA CABRAL JUNIOR LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES Data: Apr 30, 2021 Show Abstract In a scenario of climate change, the current levels of productivity, under broad environmental conditions, production per harvested area is intrinsically linked to issues of water availability in the soil. Understanding climate influence and water balance on agricultural productivity can assist in the performance of practices in the field and policies to reduce climate-related vulnerability. In this perspective, the objective of this thesis is to analyze the behavior of the productivity of the crops: cassava, corn and beans in view of the climatic variability and water balance, in the Northeast Region of Brazil. Two articles were developed: the first identifies space-time patterns of daily precipitation, verifying associations with crop yields, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, 1980 to 2013; the second analyzes the Climatological Normal Water Balance and the sequential and its relationship with crop productivity in the Northeast region of Brazil, 1990 to 2019.Daily and climatic data provided by Xavier et al. (2015), from 1980 to 2013 and data from the Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) with the support of the modeling program of America's Space Agency (NASA), for the period from 1990 to 2019. Various statistical methods were used: correlation analysis, Mann Kendall trend test, Cluster analysis, Tukey test, Factor Analysis, among others. The first study observed from moderate to strong positive and significant correlations of precipitation indicators with the productivity of subsistence agriculture, its trends, regions of greater agricultural aptitude and better periods indicated for the beginning of planting, according to the climatology of each region of the state of Rio Grande do Norte. The second study evaluated, based on the Thornthwaite climate classification of the Moisture Index, six typologies: Arid (28 municipalities); Semiarid (746 municipalities); Dry Sub-humid (536 municipalities); Sub-humid (389 municipalities), Humid B1 (73 municipalities) and Humid B2 (20 municipalities). The results showed an increase in radiation, temperature and evapotranspiration, mainly in the humid regions of the NEB. There was also an increase in water deficiency in SON and, consequently, a reduction in storage in all regions during the DJF period. It was found that in the two most humid regions, evapotranspiration and temperature correlated positively with the yields of beans and corn, while in the less humid areas, storage and water surplus had greater positive associations with agricultural productivity. According to the monthly climatological water balance, the periods of greatest water capacity for the regions were different between January and April. It is concluded, therefore, that the understanding of the behavior of the water balance variables and their relationship with agricultural productivity help in management strategies associated with climatic variations / trends, especially for the purposes of agricultural and hydrological planning and for irrigation projects for farmers. and local managers in Northeast Brazil.
4	ROSARIA RODRIGUES FERREIRA . Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES Demerval Soares Moreira RÔMULO SIMÕES CEZAR MENEZES Data: May 21, 2021 Show Abstract .
5	RICARDO BRUNO DE ARAÚJO TENÓRIO Sea ice modeling with Deep Learning in the Weddell, Bellingshausen and Amundsen Antactic Seas. Advisor : JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CARLOS ALESSANDRE DOMINGOS LENTINI DAVID MENDES JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ LOURDES MILAGROS MENDOZA VILLAVICENCIO MARCIO MACHADO CINTRA Data: Aug 26, 2021 Show Abstract Sea ice, covering approximately 7% of the surface of the Earth’s oceans, is a fundamental climatic component for studying climate in the polar regions, mainly because it acts as a natural barrier at the ocean-atmosphere interface that restricts the exchange of heat, mass, and momentum between the sea and the air, and reflects much of the incident solar radiation. Satellite observations since the 1970s indicate an Arctic with increasingly thinner and younger sea ice, accompanied by a decline in its extent. While some areas of Antarctica (e.g. Ross Sea and Weddell Sea) have shown a slight increase in the extent of this climate component for the same period. In this context, this study had as main objective to evaluate the potential predictability of sea ice cover with the application of ANNs techniques (MLP, LSTM and CNN-LSTM) in 3 Antarctic seas, they are Weddell, Bellingshausen and Amundsen. The data used were the monthly reanalyses from Era-5, for the period 1979 to 2019. SARIMAX models served as reference values for gauging the accuracy of the predictions with ANNs. Analyzing the errors (RMSE and MAE) of Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) for all the studied seas it was observed that the CNN-LSTM was exceeded only in the months with values lower than ± 25%, and the maximum differences between the errors in these events did not reach values above 5% ,as what occurred in the months of July, September and October in the Weddell Sea. With these results it was possible to infer that the CNN-LSTM model was the one that most accurately predicted the periods with the greatest differences (> 0.15) of SIC. With the analyses of the spatial distributions of the SIC differences it can be affirmed that the delimitations of the fields with differences greater than 0.15 were also better predicted with the coupling of the CNN and LSTM architectures, as occurred with the negative anomaly of June in the Weddell Sea (MAE < 0.15) and the positive one, in September, in the Amundsen Sea (MAE < 0.10).
6	KALLINE FABIANA SILVEIRA MARINHO Perfis climáticos do Brasil e os diferenciais de mortalidade por doenças sensíveis ao clima Advisor : LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE COMMITTEE MEMBERS : LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES ANA CARLA DOS SANTOS GOMES ANA CLEIDE BEZERRA AMORIM Data: Aug 30, 2021 Show Abstract A análise dos impactos do clima na saúde humana tem sido objeto de preocupação antiga entre estudiosos de diversas áreas do conhecimento. Em anos mais recentes, os investimentos em pesquisa nessa área ganham força devido à importância científica para sociedade em se buscar uma ampla compreensão da relação entre clima e população. Esse interesse é ainda maior diante do reconhecimento das oscilações nas condições meteorológicas médias ou na variabilidade climática de longo prazo. Este trabalho se propõe a investigar a mortalidade por doenças sensíveis ao clima na população idosa residente em regiões homo climáticas identificadas espacialmente no Brasil, nos anos 2000 e 2010. Uma classificação climática foi construída pela aplicação do Método Grade of Membership (GoM) com o objetivo de identificar áreas homogêneas levando em consideração as variáveis meteorológicas precipitação, umidade relativa do ar, temperatura máxima e mínima e velocidade do vento. Com a construção dessa tipologia climática, objetivar-se-á investigar a relação existente entre as taxas de mortalidade por doenças sensíveis ao clima e a características das sub-regiões climáticas homogêneas no Brasil com aplicação do modelo de efeitos mistos e finalmente será calculado o ganho na expectativa de vida da população idosa residentes nessas nova áreas consideradas no estudo, que ocorreria caso as doenças sensíveis ao clima fossem eliminadas das causas de morte desse grupo populacional, estimada pelo Risco Competitivo. Os perfis climáticos indicaram a existência predominante de três perfis distintos: Perfil 1 – caracterizado por precipitação intermediária, temperatura mínima mista de baixa e intermediária, temperatura máxima intermediária, velocidade do vento e umidade relativa do ar intermediária – o mais prevalente nesse estudo, representando 27,1% das microrregiões brasileiras localizadas nas regiões Sul e Sudeste do País; Perfil 2 – baixa precipitação, temperaturas mista de intermediária e alta, velocidade do vento alta e baixa umidade relativa do ar – com uma prevalência de 18,2%, destacando a região semiárida do Brasil e o Perfil 3 - com alta precipitação, temperaturas mista de baixa e alta, velocidade do vento baixa e alta umidade relativa do ar cuja prevalência foi a menor entre os três perfis 14,7%, nesse perfil encontra-se a região Norte e algumas microrregiões localizadas na região Sul do Brasil. Os perfis mistos definidos no modelo localizam-se nas zonas de transição de um padrão climático para outro. O próximo passo é relacionar a mortalidade por doenças sensíveis ao clima em cada um desses perfis e estimar o ganho na expectativa de vida da população residente nessas áreas. Esse estudo pretende contribuir na visibilidade das questões climáticas e de saúde pública, que possam propiciar subsídios para intervenções, com vistas à melhoria da qualidade de vida e saúde da população idosa.
7	NICORRAY DE QUEIROZ SANTOS The climate and the energy planning in Northeast Brazil Advisor : KELLEN CARLA LIMA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : ALLAN RODRIGUES SILVA ANA CARLA DOS SANTOS GOMES KELLEN CARLA LIMA MARCOS SAMUEL MATIAS RIBEIRO MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES Data: Nov 29, 2021 Show Abstract The water scarcity and abundance of the wind resource in northeastern Brazil is a relevant topic for the study focused on energy planning. Currently, electric energy is treated as sensitive input in production chain, and therefore, despite considerable tradition in using this matrix, the electrical energy presents in the internal scenario considerable restrictions, due to the limitations about of availability of water resource. Its intrinsic relationship with the climate precedes a need for new matrices arise as a sigh of complementarity. In this way, the general objective of this research was to identify the influence of climate in the generation of electric energy in Northeast Brazil. The thesis is divided into two articles. In the first, it was intended to identify the relevant climatic variables that influence hydroelectric generation. The monthly data used were the flow (period from 1964 to 2017), useful volume of the Reservoir (Sobradinho), Tropical Atlantic dipole, sea surface temperature anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific, precipitation, generation, loading and imports of electricity between 2000 to 2017 annual periods. The methodology used is based on statistical inference, principal component analysis and dynamic linear regression model. The results showed a 30% reduction in the streamflow upstream of the surfy Reservoir passing from 2,027 m3.s-1 to 1,428 m3.s-1. Using the scores of the principal components in the dynamic linear regression model, there was a reduction in generation by the hydro source by up to 40%. The second objective article comparing the different characteristics of the alternative wind source submitted to the influence of the monthly data of the ocean indexes and also of the climatic elements, such as temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure and precipitation. Thus, we intended to apply the stochastic weibull models and dynamic linear regression with monthly wind speed data observed from anemometric towers at 80 meters and 10 meters high in a complex terrain region for 2013 to 2020 period. In particular, in 2016 and 2020, there was a significant negative influence on power density with El Niño and negative dipole, respectively. Decreasing tendencies of time series of wind was confirmed at 80 and 10 meters and also from Tropical Atlantic Dipole. In addition to the seasonality used in the regression model, it was observed that the intensity of the wind has dependence on atmospheric pressure, air humidity and ambient temperature.

2020

	Dissertations
1	ÍTALO VENCESLAU BRITTO EVALUATION OF THE IMPORTANCE OF ANTARCTIC SEA-ICE ON ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AND BEHAVIOR OF EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE Advisor : DAVID MENDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DAVID MENDES WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES MARCIO MACHADO CINTRA ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES Data: Feb 27, 2020 Show Abstract Antarctic sea ice is considered a fundamental element in the analysis of global climate, due to its performance as a thermal insulation, reducing the heat exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere. In addition, the distribution of sea ice is of paramount importance in the formation of transient atmospheric systems, such as extratropical cyclones, especially those originating from the continental border of Antarctica. Extratropical cyclones are study targets due to the impact on the weather condition of the regions they pass through, and efficiency in the transport of heat, water vapor and momentum. Therefore, the objective of this study is to evaluate the behavior of the extratropical cyclones of the Southern Hemisphere (HS) in relation to the Antarctic sea ice for the period 1901 to 2016, by means of two simulations in the SPEEDY General Circulation Model of the Atmosphere, in one of the simulations will remove the Antarctic sea ice and in the other there will be no removal of the Antarctic sea ice, in a regular grid of 3.75 ° x 3.75 ° and temporal resolution of 24 hours. The data used for the climatic analysis of HS atmospheric circulation will be the fields of geopotential height at atmospheric levels of 850 and 500 hPa, air temperature, zonal and southern wind, and specific and relative humidity, both at surface and at atmospheric levels of 850 and 500 hPa, mean sea level pressure (PNMM), convective and large-scale precipitation, and sea surface temperature (SST). For the analysis and detection of the extratropical cyclones in the HS will be used PNMM, geopotential height, zonal and southern wind at atmospheric levels of 850 and 200 hPa, and zonal and southern wind-stress. This study is expected to provide information on the influence of Antarctic sea ice on HS extratropical cyclones, as well as on the behavior of variability modes and other impacts on global climate, allowing for subsidies for other climate simulations and related studies.
2	MARIA RAYLA DOS SANTOS SURFACE OCEANIC WAVES FROM SEISMIC NOISE IN THE EAST COAST OF NORTHEAST BRAZIL Advisor : WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : ADERSON FARIAS DO NASCIMENTO DAVID MENDES MARCIO MACHADO CINTRA MARCUS ANDRÉ SILVA WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: Feb 28, 2020 Show Abstract The study of ocean waves spread and dissipation is of extreme importance for the safety and efficiency to the offshore engineering works, as well as for the coastline management. However, there are difficulties associated with obtaining measured data at sea that make a good time-space sampling difficult to obtain. An alternative to filling these voids in the observations comes from the production of ocean waves data indirectly through the geophysical effect registered by means of the microseisms. The frequencies of the signals which are of interest of this proposition at frequencies lower than 1 Hz (períodos > 1 s). In this context, this research aims to evaluate the association of the oceanic gravity waves parameters and the microseismic signals recorded in the northeastern Brazilian coast. The oceanographic data come from the Recife buoy, which is the only one of the Programa Nacional de Boias (PNBOIA) located on the eastern part of the northeast Brazilian coast, from June 11 to November 16, 2015, in addition to WAVEWATCH III output, when required. The meteorological data come from reanalysis ERA5 and images of the infrared channel from GOES 13 and METEOSAT-10 satellites. The seismological data come from the NBRF station, installed in Rio Formoso – PE (closest station to the oceanic buoy). From the analysis of gravity wave characteristics, it was observed that Hs has a median of 1.99 m in winter and 1.53 in spring, predominantly from the southeast, with a median Tp of 8.3 s. From the investigation of the main oceanic events it was found that the largest Hs are related to advance of cold fronts that intensified the winds at the ASAS extremities and the southeastern trade wind, along with small trough near the east coast of the Northeast. The pre-processing and spectrograms of the seismograms revealed that for the work area the microsisms are in the range 0.04 - 0.12 Hz (8 - 25 s) for primary microseism and at 0.12 - 0.70 Hz (1 - 8 s) for secondary microseism. The amplitudes of secondary microseism, from 0.7 * (1e-7) nanometers, showed a linear behavior with the variation of Hs which allowed the estimation of a transfer equation given by . So the efficiency of the use of microseism for the oceanographic and, consequently, meteorological study was demonstrated.
3	MONIKI DARA DE MELO FERREIRA . Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : ALEXANDRE TORRES SILVA DOS SANTOS CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: May 15, 2020 Show Abstract .
4	YASMIM MEIRA HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE OF THE PIANCO RIVER BASIN TO CLIMATE CHANGE Advisor : JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : ADELENA GONCALVES MAIA ADRIANO ROLIM DA PAZ JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA KELLEN CARLA LIMA Data: Jul 17, 2020 Show Abstract Climate change has increasingly been present in several sectors of society, especially the water sector. As water resources gain more emphasis due to the increasing demand for water use, it becomes crucial to understand the effect of climate change on the components of the hydrological cycle at the basin scale for the development of hydroclimatic adaptation in water resources management. Thus, the objective of this work is to evaluate the pattern of the hydrological response in the Piancó catchment in a near future (2021-2040). This is a subbasin of the Piancó-Piranhas-Açu river basin, completely inserted in the Brazilian semi-arid, whose springs are in the state of Paraíba. The hydrological response will be evaluated from simulations with the distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The hydrological simulations will be performed for three hydroclimatic conditions: 1st – for the present climate (1982-2005), and 2st and 3st – for the climate in the near future (2021-2040) in two scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP): 4.5 and 8.5. The data used to perform the hydrological simulations for the present climate will be of the Executive Agency of Management of Waters of the State of Paraíba (AESA) and of a database of surface stations, regularly arranged in the space with a resolution of ~ 25 km. The data of the climate projections used for hydrological simulations for the future climate will be of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), regionalized for a resolution of ~ 25 km for precipitation and temperature. The SWAT performance will be conducted using hydrographs, permanence curve, dispersion chart and statistical indices widely applied in hydrological studies. The initial stages of the research have already been developed, such as: the evaluation of observed hydroclimatology and the hydrological modeling, more specifically the geoprocessing phase for the delimitation of catchment and the drainage network, as well as the SWAT implementation of the soil classes found in the basin and its types of land cover, according to the classes found in the model. The initial results indicate that the hydrological year of the basin begins in January, with April being the month that the peak of flow occurs (~ 50 m³.s-1), whereas the months of Jul-Dec the streamflow is intermittent (~ null). With respect to the physical characteristics of the catchment, obtained in the geoprocessing phase, these indicate that the dominant soils and vegetation cover in the basin, respectively, are the neosols (57% of the area) and the caatinga (79% of the area), which was represented in the SWAT as a deciduous forest. With the development of the research, it´s expected to analyze the impacts in the basin scale on the hydrological processes and water availability in a condition of climatic change in the semiarid of Brazil
5	GUSTAVO CUSTODIO MATSUBARA CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTED IMPACTS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION IN THE BRAZILIAN NORTHEAST Advisor : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN COMMITTEE MEMBERS : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA VENERANDO EUSTAQUIO AMARO LEONLENE DE SOUSA AGUIAR Data: Aug 28, 2020 Show Abstract The use of renewable sources for power generation is essential to the balance of the Brazilian energy system. The highest energy potential from wind and solar sources is concentrated in the Northeast region of the country, and yet these generation sources are still little explored, corresponding to approximately 7% of the electricity generated in Brazil. In recent years, several mapping studies of the potential energy generation have been carried out for the Brazilian territory, but few evaluate possible impacts of future changes in climate on wind intensity and solar irradiation. In addition, the importance of consistent climate studies for the formulation of more effective public energy policies and how they can contribute to regional development is rarely addressed. In this context, the general objective of this study is to better understand the behavior of wind intensities and solar irradiance in scenarios of future climate change in the Northeast region of Brazil, since this can be a valuable tool for decision making and adequate medium/long term energy planning. For this, wind intensity and solar irradiance projections were performed using the regional climate model RegCM4.7.1 and the dynamic downscaling used the output of the global model Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System model (HadGEM2-ES). The recent past experiments were carried out for the period from 1995 to 2005. For future climate projections, the RCP8.5 emissions scenario were considered, with projections from 2005 to 2015 for the beginning of the century, from 2040 to 2050 for the middle of the century and from 2090 to 2100 for the end of the century. The results were compared to daily and monthly interpolation data produced by Xavier et al. (2016) over the Brazilian territory and the performance of the simulations evaluated through the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Deviation or Uncertainty (BIAS), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results produced hoped to be a scientifically consistent database for the Northeast that could serve as an initial subsidy for decision makers in the planning of public energy policies.
6	RAFAELA DOS SANTOS GOMES Influence of climate variability over reservoirs volume in the Northeast Brazil Advisor : KELLEN CARLA LIMA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA JOSEMIR ARAÚJO NEVES JOSÉ ANTÔNIO MARENGO KELLEN CARLA LIMA Data: Sep 4, 2020 Show Abstract The high variability of rainfall in Northeast Brazil (NEB) can trigger periods of extreme drought, which imply a decrease in the volume of water stored in artificial reservoirs during the rainy season. Thus, in this research, the objective was to identify the relationship between climatic variability and the volume of water in the reservoirs of Northeast Brazil during the period from 1986 to 2018. For this purpose, rainfall data were used, the monthly volume percentage of the total capacity of the reservoirs, oceanic indices, zonal and meridional winds, emerging long wave radiation. Thus, for the aforementioned analyzes, statistical techniques of multivariate data analysis and correlations were used. The results showed that just like the rainfall, the water volumes of the artificial reservoirs inserted in the NEB are also sensitive to the modes of variability of the adjacent oceans. The variability of the main atmospheric systems acting on the NEB is also an important factor regarding the volume of water in the reservoirs. The average of the central position of the ITCZ near the north of the NEB during the months of February to May was approximately -1ºS. However, when this average was not reached, negative rain anomalies were observed, so the average volume of the reservoirs followed this pattern of reduction most of the time. Finally, it is noteworthy that the volume of water in the reservoirs is sensitive both to the indices of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and to the variability of atmospheric systems that operate where the reservoirs are inserted.
7	PAULA GABRIELA FERNANDES AGOSTINHO Isotopic Response in Siderastrea stellata to Climate Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Advisor : DAVID MENDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DAVID MENDES LIANA DE FIGUEIREDO MENDES MARCIO MACHADO CINTRA NATAN SILVA PEREIRA WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: Sep 23, 2020 Show Abstract In the current climate scenario, the need to provide accurate projections of future weather and climate evolution, demand for long-term historical environmental data. The historical record of climate events in Brazil is relatively short, rarely exceeding 100 years in duration, mainly with respect to data from oceanic regions. The scarcity of records makes it difficult to better understand the patterns of existing climate fluctuations. Corals are able to record information on tropical ocean history in addition to instrumental recording. Because they are extremely sensitive to changes in climatic conditions, coral development is affected. In their skeletons the corals incorporate δ 13C which reflects changes in δ 13C of atmospheric CO2; Sr/Ca and δ 18O in relative proportions inversely to the Sea Surface Temperature (SST), and the oxygen isotope also shows proportional correlation with salinity (SSS). The Rocas Atoll Biological Reserve, in the South Atlantic, is an ecological sanctuary of extreme importance for the conservation of marine life, and is located in an area of influence the principal oceanic-atmospheric systems responsible for the climate variability of Northeast Brazil, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the influence of Interhemispheric Thermal Gradient, and El Niño – Southern Oscillation. Information on the behavior of the precipitation regime and variability in SST over the atoll is scarce. Here a study on climate variability in atoll is described for the period 1958- 2013, using data from ERSST v5 (NOAA), and Precipitation (ERA-5 – ECMWF) for the period 1979-2013, in addition to Oceanic Niño Index - ONI and Atlantic Meridional Mode Index - AMM (PSL/NOAA). In this paper, a colony of Siderastrea stellata coral from Rocas Atoll, was dated by U-Th series, and provides 55-year records of Sr/Ca data, δ 18O and δ 13C. Cyclical variations of the coral data were confronted with the reconstructed instrumental data, and reveal the species' ability to respond to environmental changes. A decadal signal was observed in the three geochemical series, and mainly reflects TSM variations induced by oceanic variability modes and associated atmospheric systems.
	Thesis
1	WIVALDO DANTAS DE ASEVEDO JÚNIOR Parametric empirical model of neutral thermospheric winds for low and middle latitudes based on statistical data recorded by UARS-WINDII Advisor : JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ COMMITTEE MEMBERS : FRANCISCO CARLOS DE MENEZES JUNIOR PEDRINA TERRA DOS SANTOS CHRISTIANO GARNETT MARQUES BRUM DAVID MENDES GILVAN LUIZ BORBA JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ Data: Apr 30, 2020 Show Abstract Neutral thermospheric winds play a key role in ionospheric dynamics acting directly on the ionosphe- ric plasma drift, being the main mechanism of maintenance of the nocturnal ionosphere and also di- rectly infuencing the behavior of the equatorial ionization anomaly (AEI). There are measurements of thermospheric neutral wind using equipment such as Fabry-Pérot interferometer (FPI acronym for Fabry-Pérot interferometer), incoherent scattering radar (ISR acronym for Incoherent Scatter Radar) and rocket sounding data. However, these measures are located ofering low data coverage. \ith the use of satellite-based equipment, it was possible to obtain better data coverage regarding the behavior of the neutral winds, such as the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) and DE-2 (Dynamics Explo- rer 2) satellite. The thermospheric neutral wind models have become an important tool for the studies and understanding of the behavior of neutral thermospheric winds. However, the models of available neutral winds present faults when related to the behavior of the ionosphere, especially in the southern hemisphere, and consequently on Brazil. In this work, we propose a parametric termospheric neutral wind model based on a statistis of the thermospheric neutral wind records from the UARS satellite using the embedded \ind Imaging Interferometer (WINDII). The model considers the average behavior between the altitude of 225 km and 275 km in periods of solar and geomagnetic activities considered to be calm (F 10.7 cm ≤ 125 sf u, and kp ≤ 2, 33) to calculate values of the components of the neutral wind covering low and medium latitudes (±45◦ of geographical latitude) for the whole globe (±130◦ longitude) with seasonal coverage (day of the year) and local time. To evaluate the behavior and accuracy of the proposed model, we will confront the modeled values with original data from UARS record. Comparisons will also be made with the output of other termospheric neutral wind models, such as HWM (Horizontal \ind Model), and data from observations performed with Fabry-Pérot interferometer. In addition, it is also intended to evaluate the behavior of the neutral winds modeled in relation to parameters relevant to the dynamics of the ionosphere
2	REGINALDO TUDEIA DOS SANTOS SIMULATIONS OF THE SWEET WATER FLOW NO START OF THE HOLOCENE: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CLIMATE SYSTEM Advisor : DAVID MENDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DAVID MENDES JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES MARCIO MACHADO CINTRA MICHEL DOS SANTOS MESQUITA PEDRO MATTOS SOARES Data: May 13, 2020 Show Abstract The beginning of the Holocene is the period that includes the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions characterized by a warming trend in some regions of the planet, registered in proxy and indicated by temperature reconstructions. Some models of climatic studies analyze the influence of the reduction in the polar ice layers due to the increase in temperature at the beginning of the Holocene, in addition to other forcing that influenced the changes of the climatic system for the mentioned period. Climate responses due to the reduction of ice sheets and consequent freshwater entering the oceans in the early Holocene are still not well understood and require further study. The objective of the research was to help in understanding the impact of the extra pulse of freshwater to ocean and aggregate systems and in the behavior of the atmosphere, using the LOVECLIM climate model to design Early Holocene (EH) climatic scenarios, behavior of the ocean and Earth's climate systems had there been no change in freshwater flow. The results of the research indicate that the transport of heat across the Atlantic Ocean is more intense in depths between 300 and 3,500 meters due to the colder water in the first meters of the oceanic surface, coming from the melting of the continental ice. This cold water reduces heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere and allows the transport of heat to high latitudes by the mass of water just below the surface. The results also indicate that in a considerable part of the Northern Hemisphere rainfall was less intense in HD than in the IP, mainly in the north-east of the North Atlantic and Siberia. Salinity and SST in the North Atlantic were lower than current as a result of the injection of more freshwater in northeastern Canada and the melting water of the ice sheets. Finally, the air temperature at 2m in the EH when compared to the IP were less intense for almost all the terrestrial globe, emphasizing regions of high latitudes north, with cooling more accentuated than the other regions.
3	JOSÉ PEDRO DA SILVA JÚNIOR CHARACTERIZATION OF EQUATORIAL TROPOPAUSE IN THE NATAL / RN REGION USING RADIOSONDHONDING DATA FROM THE BARREIRA DO INFERNO Advisor : DAVID MENDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DAVID MENDES JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ GILVAN LUIZ BORBA MARCOS AURELIO FERREIRA DOS SANTOS RAFAEL CASTELO GUEDES MARTINS Data: May 14, 2020 Show Abstract The region of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, or correspondingly the region of the tropopause, has been identified as being of fundamental importance to the climate, to physics and to chemistry of the atmosphere. The altitude of the tropopause has a latitudinal variation, being 7-10 km in polar regions and 16-18 km in the tropics, in addition to being higher, tropical tropopause is cooler, while polar is lower and warmer , but little is known about the equatorial tropopause. In this context, the present work aims at a detailed investigation of the equatorial tropopause characteristics in the Natal-RN region, using meteorological balloon radiosonde data released by the Barreira do Inferno (CLBI), initially between 2010 and 2014. In this way comparisons were made between the experimental data and the theorists, generated from the semi-empirical model MSIS-90. In the first months of the study, a total of 1817 cases were verified, 932 daytime probes and 885 nocturnal probes, comparing the minimum temperatures of the tropopause, the thickness of the tropopause and the variations suffered by this region with the seasons. It is intended to analyze a larger time series to corroborate the initial results, since CLBI measures were made available since 1996. In addition, it is planned to integrate these data with PROCEOS software (Atmospheric Ocean Events Characterization Program). The results that will be obtained with this research, have great importance for aviation, studies in climatic sciences and for aeronomia, and in future publications, a change in the model can be suggested.
4	THIAGO VALENTIM MARQUES . Advisor : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA KEILA RÊGO MENDES RÔMULO SIMÕES CEZAR MENEZES Data: May 15, 2020 Show Abstract .
5	LOURDES MILAGROS MENDOZA VILLAVICENCIO BACKGROUND OF THE GLACIERS AND HYDRICAL CONTRIBUTION IN THE PERU VILCANOTA CORDILHEIRA Advisor : DAVID MENDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : ADELENA GONCALVES MAIA DAVID MENDES GYRLENE APARECIDA MENDES DA SILVA JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE MICHEL DOS SANTOS MESQUITA Data: May 26, 2020 Show Abstract At present it is recognized that the melting of tropical glaciers is a problemin South America, due to the rapid response of the glaciers to the changesobserved in recent decades. In Peru, there is the Vilcanota mountain range,being the most important mountain range of the southern region of Peru, since in this area it is locatedthe largest tropical ice cap of the earth (Quelccaya). The water resource that is born inThe Vilcanota mountain range comes from the water of the Urubamba river valley, beingimportance of developing an intensive agriculture, besides which, in the course of theUrubamba is the hydroelectric plant of Machupicchu, an important energy supplier ofregion. In this sense, the objective of this work is to measure the water contribution of the glaciersin the Vilcanota mountain range located in Peru and identifying possible changes in theof ice cover. For the present study, we consider images obtained byremote sensing in the last 30 years, covering the period between 1984 and 2016, with theIn order to quantify the area of the glaciers, we will use the Naive Bayes algorithm.As a next step, we will use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), withwhich objective is to estimate the flow from the melting of the Vilcanota basin.As initial results, a setback was identified in the set of glaciers belonging to theVilcanota mountain range, including the Quelccaya ice cap. In which between the years of 1985 and2016 the ice cover presented a loss of 61.61 km2 .. On the other hand, noting theQuelccaya cap, the results indicated that in the same period, there was a loss of15.31 km2 of ice cover in the shell. In addition, it was verified that the region with lower(<5000 meters) contributed to the greater loss of ice cover, whilearea (> 5300 meters.) showed stability or slight increase induring the analysis period. A study of these approaches inglaciers, will allow a more precise follow-up on their alterations, becomingvaluable information for the community in the region and help in decision-making.
6	PATRÍCIA VIANA DE LIMA Visceral Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil: Aspects Space-Time and Climate Variability Advisor : DAVID MENDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : ANA CARLA DOS SANTOS GOMES DAVID MENDES ELIANA LUCIA TOMAZ DO NASCIMENTO LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE LINCOLN MUNIZ ALVES MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES Data: May 29, 2020 Show Abstract The Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is proving a serious public health problem, and is included in the World Health Organization as one of the neglected tropical diseases by the public power. Brazil is the country of Latin America with the highest record of cases, with 90% coming from the Northeast region records. The Visceral Leishmaniasis has the favorable factors to its geographical expansion sociodemographic conditions of the population and climatic conditions. People at risk, such as poor housing conditions are more vulnerais the disease. Moreover, weather conditions can promote the proliferation of vectors responsible for LV. In this scenario, the objective of this study is to identify possible patterns of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) in the Northeast of Brazil, based on their spatial distribution in relation to sociodemographic factors and climate hydro that help in expanding the distribution of cases in the Brazilian Northeast, the from 2001 to 2015. for this we use environmental and meteorological data provided by INMET and ANA and demographic information collected in the last census by IBGE, in addition to LV information provided by DATASUS. For data analysis, spatial statistical techniques will be used in addition to the logistic regression model for discrete data. Finally, the work will present the preliminary results of the research and the proposal for the other techniques that will be applied during the development work.
7	LAYARA CAMPELO DOS REIS . Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES MURILO DOS SANTOS VIANNA DANIELLE BARROS FERREIRA Data: Jun 30, 2020 Show Abstract .
8	PEDRO RODRIGUES MUTTI DROUGHT CHARACTERIZATION IN THE NORTHEAST BRAZIL: A MULTISCALE WATERSHED ANALYSIS AND REMOTE SENSING MONITORING Advisor : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : SYLVAIN BIGOT BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA DAMIEN ARVOR JOSICLÊDA DOMICIANO GALVÍNCIO LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE VINCENT DUBREUIL Data: Dec 10, 2020 Show Abstract Drought is a recurrent phenomenon in the Northeast Brazil (NEB) region, especially in its semiarid inlands, which are characterized by a remarkable climate variability, the expansion of desertification areas and persistent water-use conflicts. Furthermore, future climate change projections indicate that drought events will become more frequent and intense, exerting more pressure over the already vulnerable region. Although several drought studies have been carried out at the NEB, some important methodological aspects inherent to data quality and control, specificities of the used techniques, and spatial scale still need to be further discussed. Therefore, the objective of this thesis is to characterize different aspects of drought in the NEB considering different spatial scales, meteorological data characteristics, and remote sensing monitoring alternatives. This characterization was carried out in the São Francisco watershed (SFW), which presents a remarkable climate diversity, in the Piranhas-Açu watershed (PAW), which is mostly located in the semiarid NEB, and in desertification hotspots. In the first study, we thoroughly validated Climate Research Unit Time Series (CRU TS) gridded precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data over the SFW. CRU TS data presents overall good correlation with observed data. Then, we compared the applicability of the evaporation deficit and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index as drought indices in the SFW. Results show that periods of water shortage are becoming more frequent and more intense in the coastal and middle zones of the basin, indicating an expansion of aridity. In the second study, we used gap-filled observed rainfall time series in order to propose a comprehensive climatological analysis in the PAW. A rainfall anomaly index was used to identify drought events, which are mostly associated with El Niño events and the anomalous warming of the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean. Finally, in the third study, different stochastic models were tested in order to forecast remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data (MOD13A2 product) over six desertification hotspots in the NEB. Results show that the tested models satisfactorily forecast short-term dry and degraded vegetation states. The results of this thesis contribute to the current general knowledge associated with drought assessment over semiarid regions, and the specific results of each study can be further explored by management agencies or local entities in the development of specific strategies to face and adapt to drought in the NEB.
9	FELIPE FERREIRA MONTEIRO URBAN HEAT ISLAND AND ITS INFLUENCE ON CLOUD MICROPHYSICS IN BRAZILIAN METROPOLES Advisor : WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLÊNIA RODRIGUES ALCÂNTARA DAVID MENDES ENRIQUE VIEIRA MATTOS LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: Dec 10, 2020 Show Abstract Urban areas modify the surface energy balance, leading to greater heat accumulation, resulting in an increase in air and surface temperature values when compared to surrounding rural areas. This condition is described by the phenomenon of the urban heat island, which has been further investigated by different fields in recent years. This phenomenon affects the health of the population, energy consumption among other areas. In Brazil, the intense urbanization, aggregating larger cities, has direct effects on the intensity of the phenomenon, which increases the risks of mortality from heat-related diseases, in addition to the increase in energy consumption among other impacts. Faced with this context, the concern arose to know in detail about the presence and effects of the ICU phenomenon in large Brazilian metropolises. to verify its influence on the characteristics of precipitation and microphysical properties of clouds. To allow this understanding, methodologies applied to active and passive remote sensing data were used, together with statistical studies, which allowed to understand the effects of the ICU in different metropolitan regions and its relationships with other environmental variables (surface albedo and NDVI), analyzing ICU trends over 17 years (2000-2016) and the similarities between metropolitan regions, from statistical tests such as: Mann Kendall, Theil-Sen, t-Student (t paired). Our results indicate that all the metropolitan regions studied have heat islands, both day and night. Of this total, 10 showed a positive trend in daytime ICU values being related to 2 different biophysical factors investigated, NDVI and superficial Albedo even if at different levels. Manaus was the metropolitan region with the largest registered daytime heat island, besides its homogeneous environment with forest cover, because of this it was selected to evaluate the cloud microphysical properties. The properties Ice Water Path (IWP), Rain Water Path (RWP), Convective Rain and Surface Rain for a period of 15 years (2000-2014) were studied during the dry season of the Manaus metropolitan region. The region was selected because it has the highest intensity of daytime heat island in Brazil. Observations indicated that in the period studied, the rates of urban convective rainfall were always higher, throughout the day. But there were variations in IWP and RWP concentrations, according to the time of day, due to variations in surface energy flows. Regarding the spatial-temporal distribution in the daytime cycle, it was evident that the precipitation and other microphysical properties of the clouds, are modulated by local circulation, especially by the action of river breeze. During the dawn, the highest values of all microphysical properties studied are on the river, while in the afternoon they occur on the banks. In this context we point out that in most of the Brazilian metropolises, during the dry season, the greatest intensities of the urban heat island phenomenon have been identified and that possibly one of the effects is on the reduction of precipitation (convective and surface) on the urban area during the day, which aggravates the impacts of heat on urban inhabitants and exposes the urban surface to a greater load of radiation.

2019

	Dissertations
1	MARCELE DE JESUS CORREA EVALUATION OF URBANIZATION ON AIR AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE METROPOLITAN REGION OF FORTALEZA – CEARÁ Advisor : KELLEN CARLA LIMA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : KELLEN CARLA LIMA JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA MARCELO BOURGUIGNON PEREIRA HELIOFABIO BARROS GOMES Data: Feb 25, 2019 Show Abstract The Metropolitan Region of Fortaleza, in the state of Ceará, has an approximate population of 4.051 million inhabitants, more than half of this population is concentrated in Fortaleza. Urbanization, the way in which the land use and occupation process takes place, leads to the formation of a climate of its own, which influences the way of life of the population in these areas. The increase in urban population has generated anxieties about the study of local and regional climate change in an attempt to understand the relationship between anthropogenic activities and possible changes in climate. In this way, the objective of this research was to investigate the effect of urbanization on air and surface temperatures in the Metropolitan Region of Fortaleza-CE (urban station) and Jaguaruana (rural station). In order to do so, first, we used the observed data of the monthly mean maximum and minimum air temperature of meteorological stations of the National Meteorological Institute for the period from 1980 to 2017, and satellite images of Landsat 5-Thematic Mapper and Landsat 8- Operational Lande Imager/Thermal Infrared Sensor for July 2006 and August 2017, respectively. Thus, the parametric (Simple Linear Regression) and non-parametric methods (Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen) were used to investigate the tendency of air temperature in urban and rural stations; maximum likelihood-supervised classification method for land use change and land cover (Land Use Land Cover); The Normalized Difference Built-up Index for mapping urban areas. As well as, some steps of the Surface Energy Balance Algorithms for Land method were used to obtain the Land Surface Temperature estimation. The results obtained for the air temperature showed that: (i) a positive linear trend was observed in the mean maximum temperature for the urban station of 0.37°C/decade, while for the rural season, the trend was positive for the mean minimum temperature, but not statistically significant; (ii) the urbanization effect in relation to the mean maximum temperature between urban and rural stations was 0.11°C/decade. (iii) For surface temperature, the year 2017 showed a difference of 4.5°C in the temperature between the urban and rural stations, as Land Land Land Cover increased in both regions for the years 2006 and 2017. (iv) The Normalized Difference Built-up Index showed an increase in temperature in relation to the built area for both the urban and rural stations, which was 2.5°C higher than that, about. However, this index does not accurately differentiate urban area from exposed soil, since these surfaces have similar spectral responses to built-up areas.
2	FRANCISCO EMENSON CARPEGIANE SILVA FEITOSA Wind analysis on the atlantic tropical ocean basin: observation and mesoscale/dinamical modeling. Advisor : CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES HELBER BARROS GOMES Data: Feb 28, 2019 Show Abstract The economic and social structure of a country is linked mainly to the energy sector. Thissector is vulnerable to climate change being responsible for most of the emission ofgreenhouse gases. From this premise, investments are needed in new alternative energygeneration, such as wind power generation in offshore regions in view of its great potential forpower generation. However, estimating the wind potential of a region, especially offshore, isdifficult because of the low availability of observed wind speed data at these sites. Therefore,the objectives of this study are to evaluate the performance of the RegCM4.2 regional climatemodel in simulating the annual and seasonal wind speed climatology in the Tropical AtlanticOcean Basin and to identify the wind potential for energy generation. Firstly, a comparisonwas performed between the data from the PIRATA program with satellite data from theBlended Sea Winds (BSW) product, in order to verify the BSW quality. Then the modelsimulations were compared with the BSW data, using root mean square error, BIAS andPearson (general) and Spearman (monthly) correlation coefficient. Finally, after the validationof the data, the wind potential was calculated by calculating the power density. In relation tothe BSW wind speed data validation, it was possible to identify that the BSW was able torepresent wind speed data well, presenting a high correlation coefficient and a relatively lowerror. Similarly, the model presented better simulation of the wind velocity in the regions nearthe coast than in the more distant regions of the coast, when analyzed seasonally, it wasverified that the model has better performance during the winter and spring periods.Regarding the PD results, during the summer and fall, the highest values of PD wereconcentrated in the coastal regions located to the north of the equator, while during winter andspring the highest values of PD were observed in the northern Brazilian coast. In conclusion,the validation of the BSW data showed low errors, proving to be an efficient database.RegCM4.2 showed simulations consistent with the wind speed distribution obtained by thesatellites, and for PD, NEB presented the greatest potential for wind power generation.
3	DANIEL CAMILO FORTUNATO DOS SANTOS OLIVEIRA OPTICAL PROPERTIES OF ATMOSPHERIC AEROSOLS IN THE ATMOSPHERE OF NATAL/RN MEASURED BY A SUN PHOTOMETER OF THE AERONET NETWORK Advisor : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN COMMITTEE MEMBERS : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA ELENA MONTILLA-ROSERO ELISA THOMÉ SENA FÁBIO JULIANO DA SILVA LOPES JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN Data: Apr 12, 2019 Show Abstract The study of atmospheric aerosols contributes to the understanding of radiative forcing and global warming. In addition, aerosols may influence visibility, acid rain, human health and precipitation. Since 2016, Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, has a solar photometer (CIMEL) of the RIMA-AERONET network that can identify the presence of biomass burning aerosols and desert dust from Africa. For this identification, it is aimed to characterize the optical properties of these aerosols present in the atmospheric of Natal (RN). The data available by AERONET, at level 1.5, Version 3, provide information on some microphysical characteristics such as Optical Aerosol Depth (AOD), Ångström Coefficient (α), Single Scattering Albedo (SSA), Asymmetry Factor (g), Complex Refractive Index (N), Volume Size Distribution (VSD) and Precipitable Water. The data collection period was from August 2017 to August 2018. Aerosols were classified based on global climatologies and their optical properties were described. Observations were compared with daily measurements satellite and the local LIDAR over the course of a day for a case study. In adition, backward trajectories were modeled with the HYSPLIT model to verify the origin and the predominant of the air masses. Aerosols present in the atmospheric column of Natal showed monthly means of AOD in the range of 0.10 to 0.15 with peak of ~40%, monthly means of α between 0.6 and 0.8 with peak above 30%, bimodal DTV with dominant coarse mode, SSA about 0.8, real part around 1.5, imaginary part raging from 0.0125 to 0.0437 and g above 0.74. The Precipitable Water accompanied the increase of the precipitation for the months of December, January, February and March. The classification identified mixed aerosols (60.40%), marine aerosols (30.69%) and mineral dust (8.91%). The backward trajectories showed that in ~51% of the cases the aerosols origined from the African Continent.
4	MAURÍCIO TOLSTOI DOS SANTOS FERREIRA MAPEAMENTO E AVALIAÇÃO DO GRAU DE RISCO DE INUNDAÇÃO EM ÁREAS URBANAS Advisor : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO COMMITTEE MEMBERS : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA JOSEMIR ARAÚJO NEVES RENATO GALANTE NEGRI Data: Aug 29, 2019 Show Abstract The city constitutes an environment of interests and ideals, where they can generate divergences, which in turn draw social conflicts. With regard to this theme, one issue that stands out too far is the use and occupation of land and how it has been unequally appropriated by private enterprise. In this context, the low-income population feels forced to live on “city margins”, in often inadequate places such as slopes, hills or river banks and even in unhealthy health conditions, with no basic sanitation, exhaustion. in the open and lack of collection of household waste, among many other factors. In this sense, it is proposed in this project, the mapping of three urban areas in Rio Grande do Norte. The purpose is to identify the recurrent flooding area of both urban areas. For this, however, the cities to be chosen were Pendências, Carnaubais and Alto do Rodrigues, which are intersected by the Piranhas Açu River, and are located downstream of the Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves dam, having recorded these municipalities, a history of such phenomena. Census tracts defined by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) were used as territorial units, and with flood spots, the next step was the overlapping of social data in order to find the most vulnerable sectors in the face of critical events. of the floods of the Piranhas Açu river in RN. The scope of this study aims to work in the conceptual light with regard to the geosystemic processes, which is supported by the use of modeling resources to portray reality. For this perspective we will take as base the methodology that is based on the configuration of a socioeconomic index to be obtained through a weighted average of the variables under study. With this we will identify the Flood Risk with the delimitation of areas with Hazard-related Vulnerability (Risk and Exposure), which in this case will be the flood of the river.
5	JOSIELLI BATISTA SIMÕES Estimates and analysis of vehicular emission inventories in the state of Rio Grande do Norte Advisor : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN COMMITTEE MEMBERS : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN SEBASTIAO MILTON PINHEIRO DA SILVA SERGIO ALEJANDRO IBARRA ESPINOSA JEAN LEITE TAVARES Data: Sep 18, 2019 Show Abstract Sources of air pollutants have been steadily increasing and are still the reason for high air pollution episodes in urban areas. affecting human health while also having an impact on climate and the environment. Air quality in a given region is defined by a combination of weather conditions and local emissions. The latter can be analyzed using emission inventories, tools that quantify emission rates from various sources, to serve as a basis for the evaluation of atmospheric chemistry and for air quality management in a region. In this context, for the first time, emissions generated by the global inventory Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) will be evaluated for the state of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), through the emissions module (EEM) of the atmospheric chemistry model European Air Pollution Dispersion (EURAD-IM). The adjustment of the EDGAR inventory was performed for two grids, the first with 75 km resolution and the second with a resolution of 15 km, where data were processed in the format necessary for the estimates, focusing on the road transport sector. Then, a downscaling was performed in the state of Rio Grande do Norte generating emission maps for the region, identifying the main cities and the main vehicular traffic routes. In order to verify the accuracy of their spatial distribution, that is, to evaluate if the inventory represents the different emission sources correctly. In addition, a Top-Down approach was performed with the VEIN vehicle emissions model, where emissions were disaggregated at highway level and it was also possible to assess sources by vehicle type, fuel and fleet age. Among the VEIN results it was found that light vehicles such as cars and motorcycles are mainly responsible for carbon monoxide (CO) emissions. These categories, which mostly consume gasoline or alcohol, are also responsible for more than 80% of HCNM emissions. While diesel-powered heavy-duty vehicles contribute most of the emissions of particulate matter (PM), sulfur oxides (SOx) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). The results of this estimate have substantially improved information for the region, as VEIN emission maps have a higher level of detail compared to the global inventory. With this work it was possible to get a better understanding of the pollutant emission fluxes and the spatial distribution, as well as the knowledge of the sites and types of vehicles of greater relevance in the contribution of the sources. An improvement was obtained in the vehicular emissions data, generating a more realistic and higher resolution emission inventory for the region, which will contribute in future to the study and management of air quality in the RN.
6	FELIPE JEFERSON DE MEDEIROS DYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF ATMOSPHERIC PATTERNS ASSOCIATES OF THE DROUGHT OF 2012-2016 IN THE NORTHEAST OF BRAZIL: OBSERVATIONAL AND NUMERICAL STUDY Advisor : CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES TERCIO AMBRIZZI Data: Nov 29, 2019 Show Abstract Identifying patterns of atmospheric circulation related to the development of drought episodes contributes to the process of mitigating impacts to society. In Northeastern Brazil (NEB), one of the regions most vulnerable to occurrence of extreme events in South America, episodes of droughts are frequently recorded. This was the scenario observed between the years of 2012-2016, in which a severe drought hit the region. It is estimated that in this period approximately 85% of the reservoirs had less than 25% of their maximum capacity, and about 80% of the cities and 33.4 million people were affected by this extreme event. In this context, considering that this episode of drought was probably the most intense and long lasting recorded in the history of NEB, this research proposal aims to analyze the climatic characteristics at regional scale and the teleconnection patterns associated with the extreme event of drought occurred in the NEB during the period from 2012 to 2016, as well as modeling rainfall variability over the same period using the RegCM4 (RegCM-TBAND) regional climate model. In the observational study, data will be used in the 1981-2016 period of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature provided by Xavier et al., (2016), as well as monthly means of the zonal, southern wind, vertical velocity and specific humidity of the ERA-Interim reanalysis. In addition, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Outgoing Long Wave Radiation (OLR) data will be used. The period 1981-2010 will be considered climatological, and from it, the monthly and annual anomalies will be calculated to diagnose the anomalous behavior of the meteorological variables during the period of 2012-2016. Then the dynamic analysis will be performed. In order to do so, the space fields of SST and OLR, and the ascending and descending movements related to Hadley and Walker will be investigated in order to identify the large scale atmospheric mechanisms associated with the dry period. In the numerical study, the simulations will be produced by RegCM-TBAND on the domain from 30 ° S to 30 ° N with horizontal resolution of 30 km. Initially, the skill of the model will be evaluated for the entire domain, for which purpose, ERA5 reanalysis data will be used. Afterwards, a NEB-focused analysis will be carried out to evaluate if the model is capable of reproducing the negative rainfall anomalies in the region. In this step, data from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), Xavier and Climate Research Unit (CRU) will be used. Preliminary results indicated that this drought occurred between 2012-2016 was the most intense since 1981, and the Northern Northeast Brazil (NNEB) is the most affected region. In quantitative terms, the negative precipitation anomalies on the NEB were 1063.4 mm, while on the NNEB were 1395.4 mm. The most affected seasonal season was the austral autumn (MAM), in which an average water deficit of 462.2 mm was detected in relation to the climatology. The analyzes of the maximum and minimum temperature anomaly indicated that in MAM besides the negative precipitation anomalies, an increase in the frequency, with significance of 1%, in the periods of heat and a decrease of the cold nights was observed on the NNEB. The next steps of the research are to obtain the oceanic and atmospheric patterns that caused the drought in the region of study, as well as to initiate the analyzes of the numerical simulations. This study intends to contribute to the improvement of the seasonal forecast of NEB precipitation in years whose atmospheric characteristics are similar to those discussed in the paper. This improvement in seasonal forecasting may lead to several public policies to mitigate the social and economic impacts linked to the occurrence of drought events in NEB.
	Thesis
1	LAÍS SAN MARTINS SCHMALFUSS Dynamic characterization of Total Ozone Column over the Southern Hemisphere. Advisor : DAVID MENDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLÊNIA RODRIGUES ALCÂNTARA DAVID MENDES JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ POLLYANNE EVANGELISTA DA SILVA WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: Feb 18, 2019 Show Abstract Given the importance of the ozone layer to life on the surface, an investigation on the dynamics of stratospheric ozone and its interaction with troposphere systems are conducted in this study. Being the focus of work the events of "ozone hole" extension over South America, here titled as comma events. The work was conducted out for the period from 1979 to 2016 only for the months of August, September, October and November, those are the months in which the ozone hole is unstable. The data used were daily average ERA - INTERIM (European Center for Medium - Range Weather Forecasts) with spatial resolution 1x1º for whole Southern Hemisphere. An analysis of the total ozone column, temperature in 100 hPa, zonal wind in 100 hPa and 200 hPa and potential vorticity in 600 K fields are performed through the mean of the period and the mean for days with a comma event, in addition to the difference between these two means. In these analyzes it was found that during the comma events a dipole in PV field associated with Rossby wave breaking. In addition to the mass mixture that occurred between the "arm" of comma and the belt of high ozone concentrations. In a second part, surface analyzes were performed in the mean sea level pressure and geopotential (500 hPa) fields, zonal wind (200 hPa) and temperature (850 hPa), as well as the vertical cut in the latitude of 50ºS for the zonal wind and temperature. The influence of high-level jet on the tropopause break, as well as the connection between anticyclones and comma events, can be seen.
2	EMERSON DAMASCENO DE OLIVEIRA SUPERFICIAL AIR TEMPERATURE SIMULATIONS BASED ON THE EFFECTS OF THE GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS THEORY ON THE GLOBAL RADIACTIVE BALANCE Advisor : JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ COMMITTEE MEMBERS : JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ DAVID MENDES MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES MARIA LUCIENE DIAS DE MELO MARIA PAULETE PEREIRA MARTINS Data: Feb 25, 2019 Show Abstract This research had as main proposal the establishment and simulation of the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) role on the global energy balance in the Earth’s atmosphere, considering the performance of carbon dioxide (CO2) individually and together with the GCR fluxes. In this way, a modified version of the Global Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) climate model was developed, making it possible to simulate new scenarios. The new model is being called GREB-GCR. The results suggest that the joint action of GCR and CO2, Experiment 20 (EXP20), presented a better representation on the surface temperature when compared to the exclusive action of CO2, Experiment 12 (EXP12). This fact is mainly evidenced on the oceans. It was identified from the root mean square error (RMSE) that the EXP20 presented a spatially reduction of the error on the tropical region while compared to the EXP12. However, it is noteworthy that in both experiments the GREB-GCR model presented more significant errors on high altitude and polar regions. The calculated surface fields indicate that the GREB-GCR model can better simulate the surface air temperature considering anthropogenic (CO2) and natural (GCR) forcings. The model also points to a recent weakening of the global warming trend of recent decades, which is influenced by the GCR’s fluxes.
3	HELDER JOSÉ FARIAS DA SILVA Analysis of the effects of deforestation on evapotranspiration and cloud microphysics using remote sensing data in the Amazon. Advisor : WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA HELBER BARROS GOMES MADSON TAVARES SILVA Data: Feb 28, 2019 Show Abstract The objective of this research was to analyze the microphysical parameters of the cloud and thespatial / temporal dynamics of the evapotranspiration (ET) inserted in the Brazilian Amazon region,based on spectral data extracted from orbital sensors. In order to generate comparative statistics ofthese components in forest and non-forest regions of the Brazilian Amazon considering the currentlevel of deforestation. The study area comprised the state of Rondônia, Brazil. As a methodology,the analyzes in the ET fields were first carried out. Where the study area was sub-divided intohomogeneous regions of ET using the statistical technique of cluster analysis. Additionally, wesought to analyze the use of a logistic regression model to create deforestation maps in Amazoniabased on ET fields. Orbital ET data and land cover type from the MOD16 product and the AmazonForest Satellite Monitoring Project - PRODES, respectively, were used, considering monthly datafrom the period 2000 to 2014. For the analysis of the microphysical parameters the data wereextracted from the Microwave Imager - TMI and Precipitation Radar - PR sensors of the 2A -CLIM and 2A25 products, respectively. From the TMI, the parameters considered were: Rain WaterPath - RWP, Cloud Water Path - IWP, Convective Precipitation - CP, Surface Precipitation - SP andFrozen Precipitation - FP, the parameters of 2A25 were: Freezing Height - FH and Rain Type - RT.Relay data from the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission - SRTM were used to complement theanalyzes in order to verify the influence of the topography with the microphysical parameters and,thus, to consider a lifting threshold for the comparative analyzes to avoid the bias arising from thisvariable. Afterwards, all statistical calculations and tests were performed, as well as the constructionof histograms, charts and comparative tables using the statistical program R. The results showedthat in relation to ET, according to the clustering analysis, that for the study area threehomogeneous sub-regions were sufficient to represent the ET variability to which they wereobtained considering, mainly, the intensity and seasonal pattern of this process . When the impactsafter changing from a forest area to deforested, the analyzes indicated that ET of deforested areasdecreases by an average of 28% in the dry season and increases ~ 4% in the rainy season. Thedifferences observed in the rainy season were not significant at 5% significance according toStudent's T test. Unlike the dry season, which presented statistical significance (p-value <0.05). Ingeneral, the results suggest that MOD16 data can provide a satisfactory representation of the changefrom ET to large areas of the Brazilian Amazon. Logistic regression analysis showed that the spatialpattern of deforestation can be identified by biophysical factors such as ET with 87% accuracy, aslong as the average environmental conditions of the environment are maintained, showing apromising variable to identify future trends in the deforestation in tropical regions. Regarding theanalyzes of the microphysical parameters of cloud, the results show that, in general, the local reliefinfluences in the microphysical parameters being more pronounced from 721 meters of altitude. Ouranalyzes also indicated that the level of local deforestation produced significant increases in theRWP and IWP parameters of 11 and 13% (p-value <0.05), respectively, and reductions for CP, SPand FP parameters ranging from 7.9, at 9.2% (p-value<0.05). Changes to FH and TP were notstatistically significant but slight increase for FH and higher frequency of convective rainfall indeforested areas were observed. This suggests that the microphysical structure of the cloud presentswith distinct characteristics when related to forest and deforested areas.
4	ANDERSON GUIMARAES GUEDES Characterization of Sahara Dust Aerosol Transport Over Natal City through the Technique of Depolarization LIDAR Advisor : EDUARDO LANDULFO COMMITTEE MEMBERS : EDUARDO LANDULFO FRANCISCO ALEXANDRE DA COSTA FÁBIO JULIANO DA SILVA LOPES Glauber Lopes Mariano PABLO ROBERTO RISTORI Data: Apr 26, 2019 Show Abstract Saharan dust transport can reach distances of up to 5000 km and it is estimated that around 40 million tons of dust are transported annually from the Sahara to the Amazon basin, having important role as its main source of nutrients. In 2016, the first Brazilian LIDAR system with depolarization channels, DUSTER, designed for atmospheric transport studies and characterization of aerosols on the South Atlantic was installed. The DUSTER system has 4 detection channels, 1064 nm, 355 nm and depolarization channels 532 s nm and 532 p nm. The research was conducted to calibrate the DUSTER system, applying the method and characterize the atmospheric aerosols that are being transported over the atmospheric Natal city region. The data acquisition took place during the scientific campaigns that were designated MOLOTOV ZERO (February / 2016 to July / 2016), MOLOTOV I (December / 2016 to February / 2017) and MOLOTOV II (November / 2017 to February / 2018). The data obtained by the DUSTER allowed to calculate the ratio of linear depolarization of particles (), fundamental parameter in the characterization of atmospheric aerosols. The minimum and maximum values of during the MOLOTOV ZERO, MOLOTOV I and MOLOTOV II campaigns were 0,02 ± 0,003 and 0,29 ± 0,023, 0,02 ± 0,002 and 0,28 ± 0,006, 0,02 ± 0,001 and 0.22 ± 0.001, respectively. The classification of aerosol intrusions on the Natal city atmospheric region indicated that they are predominantly marine aerosols and in some situations it is possible to identify mixtures of Saharan dust and biomass burning with marine aerosols to a greater or lesser degree. Data from the CIMEL photometer, installed next to DUSTER, corroborate the analyzes and indicate that there is a higher concentration of marine aerosols and of Saharan dust in two campaigns (MOLOTOV ZERO and MOLOTOV II). HYSPLIT transport model retro-analysis analyzes satisfactorily explain the presence of biomass burning aerosols in the atmosphere locally and their origin; however, there is no good correlation between retro-analysis and Saharan dust sources that explain their presence in latitudes further south such as Natal city and low altitudes, indicating that possibly events such as the ITCZ have an influence on this mechanism. The research data were also correlated with those of the CALIPSO satellite and the CATS system (coupled to International Space Station), indicating the presence of aerosols compatible, in some cases, with those detected with DUSTER system in soil.
5	SUANY CAMPOS DA SILVA Seasonal and Annual Patterns of Closure and Partitioning of the Energy Balance in a Caatinga Preserved Area under Extreme Drought Conditions Advisor : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : ANTONIO CELSO DANTAS ANTONINO BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA KEILA RÊGO MENDES LUIS MARCELO DE MATTOS ZERI Data: May 16, 2019 Show Abstract The energy balance closure obtained through the eddy covariance method is a problem which persists, despite advances in the development and improvement of instruments and recent efforts in the description of corrections and in the characterization of measuring uncertainties. In most places the sum of sensible and latent heat fluxes (H and λE) is less than available energy, i.e. the difference between net radiation (Rn) and soil heat flux (G). This study analyzed the annual and seasonal behavior of the energy partitioning and energy balance closure in the Caatinga Biome, which is a seasonally dry tropical forest located in the semiarid lands of Brazil, using the eddy covariance method. Results showed high seasonal variability in the energy partitioning. During the dry season, approximately 70% of Rn was converted into H and less than 5% of it was converted into λE. During the wet season, the Rn portion converted into H and λE was similar: ~ 40%. In annual terms, the Rn portion converted into H and λE was of the order 50% and 20% respectively. The degree of the energy balance closure varied depending on the method used. When the closure was calculated using orthogonal regressions, the slope varied from 0.87 to 0.90 in 2014 and from 0.92 to 1.00 in 2015. However, when the closure was calculated by the energy balance ratio method, values varied from 0.70 to 0.79 in 2014 and from 0.73 to 0.82 in 2015. Little improvement in energy balance closure was observed when storage rates were included in the computations. The closure was better in 2015 if compared to 2014 possibly due to the more intense turbulence observed in 2015 because friction velocity was higher than in 2014. The relationship between the energy balance ratio and friction velocity clearly showed that when friction velocity increases the closure improves. Besides turbulence, the better closure in 2015 in relation to 2014 may also be associated with the more frequent occurrence of large eddies in 2014, which was evidenced by the correction coefficients for vertical wind velocity and water vapor and vertical wind velocity and sonic temperature . In 2014 both coefficients were lower than in 2015 which may have caused larger residuals that year. The energy balance closure was also analyzed considering atmospheric instability conditions and the best results were found under very unstable conditions , while the least expressive results were found under stable conditions . Under these conditions negative values of the energy balance ratio were also observed during dry and transition seasons, indicating that fluxes were reversed during these seasons.
6	DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES ANALYSIS OF EXTREMES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEAST BRAZIL Advisor : WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : RENATO GALANTE NEGRI CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA CLÊNIA RODRIGUES ALCÂNTARA MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES PAULO SERGIO LUCIO WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: Aug 28, 2019 Show Abstract Extreme weather events are becoming increasingly frequent in Brazil. The consequences have been catastrophic climate change, causing floods, drought, forest fires, landslides, river flows, cold or hot flashes, among others. These environmental changes have major implications for society, especially health, agriculture and water resources. Given this scenario, having knowledge of the behavior and frequency with which extreme values occur is of great importance to society. However, a major difficulty factor in performing these analyzes is the quality of the data series used, especially those on the daily scale. Therefore, the objectives of this study are to evaluate the quality of multiple imputation methods for filling in missing daily rainfall data, to investigate the ability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 product to estimate occurrence and intensity of daily and extreme precipitation events, to estimate the return level of extreme daily precipitation events and to classify the microphysical parameters of the extreme precipitation generating clouds for Northeaster of Brazil (NEB). This region has high spatial and temporal variability of precipitation and is vulnerable to extremes of daily precipitation. For this purpose, it made use of daily rainfall data from rainfall during the period from 01/01/1986 to 12/31/2015 and from products 3B42, 2ACLIM and 2A12 from the TRMM satellite during the period from 01/01/2000 to 12/31/2015. Data analysis was performed by means of statistical measures and methods such as mean standard deviation, bias, mean square error, correlation, multiple imputation, t-student test, sensitivity analysis, cluster analysis, extreme value theory, analysis of variance, F test, Tukey test, among others. The main results indicated that multiple data imputation using the Bootstrap EM algorithm method could be a tool that corroborates the reconstruction of historical series of daily precipitation data. Overall, TRMM 3B42 product data performed well when estimating precipitation values for NEB. Its quality varies according to the location and time scale at which precipitation occurs. Estimates of the return level indicate that the expected daily extreme rainfall intensity depends on the seasonal period and where it occurs. The East of the NEB stands out as the region where the highest intensities of extreme precipitation are expected. Parameters such as amount of liquid water and integrated ice, height of the freezing top and type of rain were characterized, generating extreme precipitation clouds in relation to different NEB regions.
7	ALINE MACEDO DE OLIVEIRA Atmospheric Aerosol Optical Depth Characterization in the Brazilian Northeast: A study using a modeling system with advanced data assimilation Advisor : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN COMMITTEE MEMBERS : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES TACIANA TOLEDO DE ALMEIDA ALBUQUERQUE HENDRIK VIKTOR ELBERN Data: Sep 24, 2019 Show Abstract Since numerical weather prediction (NWP) studies began, many efforts had been made in order to obtain more improvements of them. When compared to meteorological forecast, chemical predictions have the same importance as each day, the concern on how atmospheric pollutants on climate change grows. To obtain better prediction, different modeling techniques are adopted. One of them is data assimilation (DA), which matches observational and modeled data in order to obtain more accurate results. Usually this type of technique is use when there is lack of data, which makes traditional modeling less trustworthy. The main goal of the work is to implement a variational data assimilation method in three dimensions (3DVAR) of the EURAD-IM inverse model for the Northeast Brazil (NEB) and test it using available observational data. EURAD (European Air Pollution Dispersion) and its inverse form EURAD-IM developed at the University of Cologne, in Germany, is a Eulerian model that operates from local to hemispheric scale and calculates transport, diffusion and chemical transformation of about 70 chemical species. In NEB the short amount and quality of emission sources makes modeling a challenge. For this reason, Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) derived from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board of AQUA and TERRA were considered. These data were used to investigate and characterize aerosols particles in the region for a ten-year (from 2005 to 2014) period. In this it was observed that AOD in NEB has a feature of low particle load, with the medium value for the period of 0.2, except during two seasons, named as typical periods. Those periods occur from January to March and from August to October, in all the years. It was also observed that NEB is influenced by different types of particles, sea salt (the main type), biomass burning, urban pollution, dust and dust plus pollution. Also, observed that dust and biomass burning particles from the African continent are advected towards NEB during the typical periods. The simulations with EURAD-IM were performed in the year of 2014 and consider as boundary conditions, data from The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and as meteorological driver, simulations from The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It was observed that EURAD-IM and MODIS data correlate well, except during the months when AOD showed elevated values. On those EURAD overestimates AOD in NEB. Study case with consideration on DA, showed that 3D-VAR works well for the region. It also showed to be suitable for the NEB providing a good correlation with the observational data and better results when compared with pure model simulations.
8	PATRÍCIA NUNES TUCHTENHAGEN VARIABILIDADE DO VENTO E POTENCIAL PARA ENERGIA EÓLICA OFFSHORE NO LITORAL SUL DO BRASIL Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : ALINE GOMES DA SILVA BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA ELIANE BARBOSA SANTOS Data: Nov 1, 2019 Show Abstract Southern Brazil is the second region which most generates wind power in the country and its capacity could further increase if offshore resources would also be explored to this end. Offshore wind power generation is expanding in several regions of the globe but in Brazil, particularly in its southern portion, prospection studies are still scarce for this modality. In this context, the present study aims to assess wind variability and power density (PD) simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in the Southern Brazil, focusing on the offshore region. For this, the simulations results were compared with data from the Blended Sea Winds (BSW) product from the National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The numerical experiment was carried out during a 5-year period, between 00UTC of 01/01/2006 until 00UTC of 31/12/2010. The domain has a total of 340 grid points in the zonal direction, 180 points in the meridional direction and 35 vertical layers with the top set at 50 hPa. This area comprehends the entirety of the Southern region of Brazil (Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul states), Uruguay and part of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The WRF model was able to fairly accurately reproduce the position and intensity variability of the South Atlantic Subtropical High. Simulated wind speed values presented mean seasonal values equivalent to observed values in 98% of the seasonal periods and simulated PD in 90% of them. The possibility of hydro-wind complementarity in the region was also observed. In conclusion, it was found that it is possible to use the WRF model can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential for wind power generation in the Southern Brazil region. On the other hand, the model did not perform well in simulating wind in the regions near the Brazil and Falklands Currents. This shortcoming may be corrected by coupling the WRF with an oceanic model and using parameterizations which more adequately represent turbulence in the planetary boundary layer.

2018

	Dissertations
1	PEDRO RODRIGUES MUTTI ESTIMATION OF THE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ON THE PIRANHAS-AÇU RIVER BASIN BY USING REMOTE SENSING DATA Advisor : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA BERNARDO BARBOSA DA SILVA CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: Feb 22, 2018 Show Abstract The Piranhas-Açu River Basin (PARB) is located in Brazil’s semiarid region, where the occurrence of long draught periods associated with water resources allocation conflicts may put its water availability at risk, impacting human supply and agriculture development. Because of that, research on hydrological cycle processes is crucial to water resources management in water basins. Among these processes, evapotranspiration (ET) is of uttermost importance given its critical role in water, soil and vegetation interactions, hydrometeorological modelling and in the energy fluxes dynamics of semiarid regions. Therefore, the objective of this study is to quantify daily ET during a wet and a dry year in all the PARB, by using remote sensing data and formulations based on the Simplified Surface Energy Balance Index (S-SEBI) and the Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) algorithms. Land surface temperature, albedo and NDVI data from MODIS sensor and solar radiation data from weather stations located in the basin were used. Precipitation analysis was carried out using data from rain gauges located in the basin. It indicated 2009 as being an unusually wet year and 2012 as an unusually dry year, which were selected for the ET quantification. The proposed algorithm was calibrated and validated with energy balance components data from a flux tower equipped with eddy covariance system. Daily ET estimates showed good agreement with observed values (R²=0,64, RMSE=0,79 mm.d-1) and annual ET relative error was of 7,3% (68,3 mm.year-1). In 2009 the highest monthly ET rates were found in water bodies (96,4 mm) and in the caatinga (93,0 mm) during March and April. In this year, ET monthly rates were higher than 30,0 mm in all land cover classes until October. In 2012, the highest rates were also found in March and April in water bodies (100,9 mm) and the caatinga (87,4 mm). In June of this year monthly ET rates were as lows as 30,0 mm, with a minimum of 17,6 mm in bare soil areas in September. Water surplus was calculated using precipitation data from the TRMM satellite. During 2009 it was observed a surplus of 721,5 mm in the PARB, which was 4,7 times greater than the deficit observed in 2012 (-153,2 mm). This indicates that, neglecting consumptive water usage in the basin, wet years can potentially compensate up to four years of intense draughts.
2	JEAN SOUZA DOS REIS Dynamic and thermodinamic characteristics of Upper Air Cyclonic Vortices Advisor : WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA CLÊNIA RODRIGUES ALCÂNTARA DAVID MENDES LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: Feb 27, 2018 Show Abstract This work is devoted to the study of dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of the High Level Cyclonic Vortexes (HLCV) in the Northeast of Brazil (NEB), using an objective VCAN identification algorithm (OVIA) using ERA-Interim data from the reanalysis of the the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) set, both from 1980 to 2016. The OVIA showed more efficiency after two added improvements and could be redirected to other studies. The AIOV results were confirmed by the climatology, identifying 1493 VCAN, 51% occurring in the summer and 5% in the astral winter. In the analysis of the spatial climatology, the regions of greater occurrence of the HLCV on the continent are: The central region of Pernambuco; The coast in the border of Pernambuco and Paraíba; northern coast of Bahia; Central region of Bahia; South region of Bahia. It is observed that in the South Atlantic Ocean adjacent to the coast of NEB there is a great density of HLCV. In the summer, HLCV occur more frequently in the coastal and south-central regions of Bahia, central Pernambuco and the coast of the border of Pernambuco and Paraíba, while in autumn, the central and coastal region of Bahia are the most affected. Evidence that this system acts as an inhibitor of precipitation in NEB is shown when precipitation and preferential positioning of the HLCV is related. This result indicates that in addition to the systems that modify the dynamics of precipitation, the HLCV is responsible for the water deficit. The atmospheric profile of the divergence shows that there is a phase change in the mean atmosphere, the monthly analysis of vorticity and divergence show that March is the most intense HLCV. Two conceptual surveys are presented, they show that the lifted condensation level (LCL) at 860 hPa at the center of the HLCV and 940 hPa at the border. The profile on the border region was more unstable than the profile at the center of the HLCV. The behavior analyzed by the thermodynamic indices indicates that situations occur that even without favorable local thermodynamics, the atmosphere responds to a more intense dynamic system that forces conditions to favor convection.
3	ALINE KELLY DE SOUZA MELO ANALYSIS OF AEROSOL OPTICAL PROPERTIES IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NATAL/RN WITH DATA FROM LIDAR SYSTEMS Advisor : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA FÁBIO JULIANO DA SILVA LOPES JEAN LEITE TAVARES JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN MARIA PAULETE PEREIRA MARTINS Data: Apr 27, 2018 Show Abstract This work analyzed atmospheric aerosols over Natal / RN by means of its optical properties. Ten years (2007-2016) of data from the CALIPSO satellite were obtained, which has an on-board Lidar called CALIOP. CALIPSO data was obtained at most within a radius of 120 km around Natal. using the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), the lidar ratio (RL) and the altitude of the base and top of the aerossol layers . A case study was carried out for the month of September using the aerosol subtype masks generated by CALIPSO. Also trajectories of air masses were calculated, with the HYSPLIT model. The objective of choosing data over the region was to carry out a data comparison study of the terrestrial DUSTER / Lidar at UFRN in Natal, with data from coincident days of passage of the CALIPSO satellite. Return signal profiles were generated at 532 nm, and backscatter profiles attenuated at 532 nm of CALIPSO. The analysis of optical depth of aerosols (AOD) showed that their monthly mean variability did not exceed values greater than 0,16. The months that presented lower concentrations were around na AOD of 0,04. Histograms of ODS frequency showed that the types of clean continental, marine and dust aerosols have low variation in values. The types of aerosols that presented the greatest variation were the type continental / smoke pollution. According to the RL analysis, Natal presented values that characterize dusty, burnt, polluted continental and mainly clean marine aerosols. The lowest top and bottom altitudes of the aerosols layers were observed in May, June, July and November, these being the months in which the rainy season occurs. The minimum values are always below 1 km of altitude, the months of February and September obtained 25% of the altitudes above 2.5 km, with altitudes of up to 4.9 and 4.8 km. The values of RL of 70 sr and the highest values of maximum and minimum height of the aerosol layers, highlighted for the month of September, suggest the hypothesis of cases of detection of biomass burningaerosol at high altitudes above the boundary layer, motivating the case study, which on 09/09/2009, 09/09/2011, 07/09/2013 and 09/15/2016, showed smoke aerosols located at an altitude of 3 to 4 km height. With trajectories modeled by the HYSPLIT model it can be concluded that these air masses are coming from the West, from burning processes), to the Natal atmosphere. The comparison of the DUSTER/Lidar data with CALIPSO data on 06/12/2016 and 07/01/2017 showed aerossol layers of between 1 and 3 km, coinciding in both types of measurements.
4	NARA POLIANA MENESES DE OLIVEIRA AVALIAÇÃO DA RAZÃO LIDAR DO SATÉLITE CALIPSO UTILIZANDO A PROFUNDIDADE ÓPTICA DE AEROSSÓIS OBTIDOS POR UM FOTÔMETRO SOLAR DA REDE AERONET EM PETROLINA/PE, BRASIL Advisor : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN COMMITTEE MEMBERS : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA MARIA PAULETE PEREIRA MARTINS CRISTINA TOBLER DE SOUSA RAE FÁBIO JULIANO DA SILVA LOPES Data: May 3, 2018 Show Abstract There are many factors that turn the quantification of the aerosol’s influence on climate change processes challenging. These factors are associated to the uncertainties in the distribution and properties of aerosols and clouds, as well as their global interactions. With the purpose of reducing those uncertainties, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in collaboration with the Centre National d'Études Spatiales (CNES), launched the Cloud-Aerosol LIDAR and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite, that has on board a Cloud-Aerosol LIDAR with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), consisting of a light detector and tracker Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR). This system performs a vertical sounding of thin clouds and aerosols properties around the globe as the satellite passes. The optical properties of the atmosphere along the pathway where the CALIOP laser propagates, are recovered by a number of algorithms, and to ensure the quality of the results, it is necessary to validate the data by different instruments and/or methods. Even though satellite measurements have a wide coverage area, they need to be more accurate, since the incorporated data acquisition and processing algorithms still lack precision. For this reason ground-based measurements are necessary for calibration purposes. In this study a methodology was used to validate the Lidar Ratio from CALIOP, by obtaining the aerosol optical depth data from 2007-2016 of a sun photometer part of the AERONET network and installed in Petrolina-PE in the Brazilian Northeast. The CALIOP data were obtained using 54 coincident measurements under cloud-free conditions which corresponds to 31%of all existing measurements in the proximity of Petrolina/PE from 2007-2016. An AERONET/CALIPSO model (A/C-Model) developed by Lopes et al. (2003) was used, which defined the new Lidar Ratio, for comparison with the values of the CALIOP HERA algorithm. The performance of the A/C-Model for the characterization of the different aerosol types in the study area registered high frequency occurrences of clean marine aerosol (25 to 30 sr) and smoke (70 sr), whereas CALIOP registered high frequencies of a mixture of dust with pollution aerosol (55 sr to 60 sr), and biomass burning or polluted continental aerosol (70 sr). The results of the A/C model were compared to CALIOP, which showed that the global model indicated a superestimation of the Lidar Ratio. We assume that the global model may not be adequate for the region. A super estimation may be associated to the CALIOP calibration, especially due to the influence of the South Atlantic Anomaly of the Earth’s magnetic field that may affect the accuracy of the system’s measurements.
5	DANILO HENRIQUE MORAIS CASTRO OLIVEIRA EXTREMES OF PRECIPITATION AND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NATURAL AND ANTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HYDROGRAPHIC REGIONS OF SÃO FRANCISCO AND PARANÁ Advisor : KELLEN CARLA LIMA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CINTIA BERTACCHI UVO DAVID MENDES JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA KELLEN CARLA LIMA MARCELO BOURGUIGNON PEREIRA MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES SANDRA ISAY SAAD Data: Jun 11, 2018 Show Abstract The occurrence of natural disasters due to the occurrence of extremes of precipitation and flow is becoming an increasingly common reality in the world. In most cases, the lack of prevention and mitigation plans associated with lack of management by public agencies maximizes damages and losses. In Brazil, hydrographic regions determine water management throughout the territory. However, it is worth emphasizing that the methodologies and solutions created to face such stresses are not necessarily the same for any region, given that each of them presents different characteristics in the economy, social, demographic and water management. In this context, this research aims to estimate the recurrence of extremes of intense precipitation and maximum flow, as well as to search for the existing relationship with the natural and anthropogenic characteristics in the hydrographic regions of São Francisco and Paraná. For this purpose, three datasets were used: meteorological, hydrological and demographic data with time series from 1988 to 2017. Observed data of precipitation were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology and the National Water Agency. The flow data came from the National Water Agency. In addition, the information on demography extracted from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. In the methodology, the descriptive statistics of the precipitation and flow data were used, together with the cluster analysis capable of identifying homogeneous sub regions of precipitation and flow in each hydrographic region. The generation of these homogeneous sub-regions was tested using the Silhouette Index. Subsequently, the subregions were inserted into the Extreme Value Theory in order to generate the estimation of the return periods of intense extreme precipitation and flow events. Subsequently, the overlapping of information on the physical, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics made possible the analysis of the use and occupation of the soil of susceptible areas. The results indicated the formation of four homogeneous sub-regions of precipitation in the two hydrographic regions studied, in addition to three homogeneous sub-regions of flow in the São Francisco hydrographic region and two in the Paraná hydrographic region. The scenarios for the recurrence of intense precipitation and maximum flow events indicate the high degree of severity by which certain subregions can be submitted. The use and occupation of the soil of these hydrographic regions has been changing abruptly in recent years. It should be emphasized that the urban growth of most cities and the change of natural areas for the practice of extensive agriculture can aggravate the numerous damages due to the scenarios for the two hydrographic regions.
6	MARCOS PAULO ARAÚJO DA SILVA Controle de Qualidade de Dados de um Sistema LIDAR Troposférico pela Análise de Parâmetros Ópticos Atmosféricos e Instrumentais via Protocolos das Redes LALINET e EARLINET Advisor : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN COMMITTEE MEMBERS : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN EDUARDO LANDULFO FÁBIO JULIANO DA SILVA LOPES MARIA PAULETE PEREIRA MARTINS Data: Aug 31, 2018 Show Abstract Observational data acquisition related to atmospheric aerosols is relevant for the progress in research on their influence on climate change related processes. Due to their optical properties, they can interfere with the radiative balance and with cloud microphysics changing their dimensions and lifetimes. The active remote sensing system Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR), called Duster, located in Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, sends laser pulses to the atmosphere and detects aerosols optical characteristics through their interaction with light. This research had two main foci: the first one is the LIDAR Duster quality assurance during the operational acquisition campaigns. The assurance was made by the following instrumental tests: Dark Measurment, Zero Bin, Bin-Shift, Telecover and Rayleigh Fit according to the Latin America LIDAR Network (LALINET) and the European Aerosol Research LIDAR Network (EARLINET) standards. By means of these tests it was possible to detect noises, recorder delays and check de alignment in near and far range. A set of algorithms called Duster Quality Assurance (DQA), with modules which read the instrumental quality test data, pre-process data, generate graphics and write the results in ASCII format were developed. The results point that the errors relative to the alignment testes, Telecover and Rayleigh Fit, are less than 0.1 in most of the channels. The second focus was to compare tropospheric aerosol backscatter profiles by the Klett-Fernald-Sasano inversion method in two different tools: the Single Calculus Chain and the LALINET Inversion Algorithm. Two days of data acquisition with 1064 nm wave length were selected to acquire the profiles. The computation happened by means of the relative error among the profiles. The relative error profiles varied among 0 and 10% on the two days. This research also shows for the first time the filter Duster Cloud Free wich removes cloudy files automatically, assisting in the LIDAR data treatment for later obtaining of products.
7	LIZANDRO PEREIRA DE ABREU Lightning in the Northeast of Brazil: Occurrence, Variability, Seasonality and the relationship with cloud microphysics Advisor : WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA PAULO SERGIO LUCIO ENRIQUE VIEIRA MATTOS Data: Sep 21, 2018 Show Abstract In the history of mankind, lightning has been the focus of scientific observation in many research groups around the world, mainly because of its aggressive and destructive nature. These important atmospheric phenomena can greatly impact the society, leading to abnormalities or disconnections in power distribution, fires, ship and airplane accidents, telecommunication breakdowns and even death. It is estimated that about 60-75 million lightning occur annually, killing an average of 132 people every year in Brazil. The Northeast region of Brazil (NEB) accounts for 18% of the total deaths in the national territory. Considering the population of all Brazilian regions, the state of Piauí presented the highest mortality rate (1.8 deaths per million); which is higher than the country’s total rate (0.8) and the NEB rate (0.5). Studies have shown that lightning formation is associated with the collision between ice particles (crystal and graupel) in the presence of supercooled water droplets in regions with strong updrafts. Therefore, the objective of this study is to evaluate lightning spatial and temporal distribution in NEB, as well as to investigate the relationship between lightning and cloud microphysics, during the period from 1998 to 2013. Data from two orbital plataforms were used: i) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS), TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite to provide information on the occurrence of total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) and vertical content of the atmosphere (hydrometeors, precipitation rate, rain type); ii) Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), on board of Terra platform provide the ground elevation data, to verify the influence of topography on lightning rates. Data will be worked in monthly, seasonal and general distributions formats. The general distribution was worked out based on Cluster Analysis and aided the identification of the greatest points of lightning occurrence (hotspots). Finally, the lightning was analyzed according to the quantiles technique, finding the characterization according to the microphysical characteristics of clouds. In the NEB territory, it was registered great spatial and temporal variability in the lightning rates, with mean varying from 0 to 44.5 flashs.km-2.year-1. All the hotspots are located in Piauí, Maranhão states and west region of Bahia. The topography of NEB seems to act as a facilitator of the convective process, by the increases of intense updrafts formation, an essential factor for the generation of electric charges inside the thunderclouds. The cluster analysis together with the investigation of the characteristics of each of the hostspots allowed to infer that the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) are the systems most associated with lightning in NEB territory, being the lightning hotspots characterized as occurrence sites of these systems. Regarding the microphysical parameters of the cloud, it was observed that when the lightning happens, the atmosphere has lower values of liquid water in the cloud, high amounts of ice water, high convective precipitation rate, lift of height freezing level and high probability of precipitation (or the occurrence of this); this information allowed the conceptual model proposition of the microphysical characteristics present when lightning occurs in the NEB.
	Thesis
1	MICEJANE DA SILVA COSTA SYNOTIC PATTERN OF WEAK AND INTENSE PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE NORTHEAST SEMARIATE OF BRAZIL Advisor : KELLEN CARLA LIMA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLÊNIA RODRIGUES ALCÂNTARA JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA JOSÉ IVALDO BARBOSA DE BRITO KELLEN CARLA LIMA LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: Feb 28, 2018 Show Abstract The semi - arid region of the Northeast of Brazil (NEBSA) has complex climatic characteristics which allows a great variation in the spatial distribution of precipitation, related to different rainfall regimes. Therefore, studies on atmospheric systems related to precipitation are relevant since they are associated with disasters that cause great social and economic impacts. Within this context the doctoral thesis is divided into articles format, thus: (i) The first article had the task to verify if there are trends in events of weak precipitation (WRE) and events of intense precipitation (HRE) for the periods less rainy and rainy during the years 1961 to 2011. Firstly, to define extreme precipitation events, the percentile tool (P) with values below P5 representing precipitation events weak (WRE) and above P95 intense (HRE), with a threshold of 5% in each percentile analyzed. The Mann-Kendall test allowed us to identify increasing and / or decreasing trends among extreme rainfall events. The results showed significant trends for the two extremes in both periods. The intensity of precipitation in the WRE and HRE had a statistical significance of 5% in the months of June, July, August, October, November and December. (ii) The second article aimed to define the beginning and end of the rainy season for each homogeneous rainfall sub-region of NEBSA during the period from 1979 to 2013. For this purpose, cluster analysis was used to define homogeneous regions of precipitation. And then, it was used pentad to identify the beginning and the end rainy in each subregion. As a result, five homogeneous sub-regions of precipitation were identified, with different periods of rainy onset, with the exception of the S2 and S3 sub-regions that coincide on November 27 to December 1, possibly due to the activities of ZCIT and VCAN. The months from November to April are the rainiest throughout NEBSA. With higher accumulated per pentad occur in the month of March and the smaller ones in the month of September. (iii) Subsequently, the third article addresses the main theme of this, to identify existing differences in the dynamic characteristics of the atmosphere over NEBSA, with performance of each meteorological system in situations WRE and HRE for the period 1961-2011. For that, the Conceptual Model (MC) was adopted as the main tool for capturing extreme events associated to different meteorological systems, taking into account the duration in days and months of greater performance of each system. In order to support the investigation of the methodology applied in this thesis, the objective methods of Coutinho 2010 were used to select VCAN and ForTraCC for SCM. The anomaly compositions were analyzed for the day of the event and up to four days prior to the event, using meteorological variables provided by NCEP / NCAR, according to the need of each system. In summary, the results of this study broaden our global understanding of the role of seven atmospheric systems operating in different regions of NEBSA, whether or not they influence the total precipitation. In the anomaly compounds of each system associated to WRE and HRE days, it was possible to identify the location of its performance as well as to identify the systems that influenced or acted together. In relation to the extremes, it was observed that the events have similarities with each other, in relation to the behavior of the atmosphere, and what differs is the intensity of the event. In relation to SCM, it was seen that they are always associated with one or more systems. (iv) Finally, the fourth article studied the mesoscale convective systems operating on NEBSA in the period from 2010 to 2011, a differentiated contribution of this thesis, whose objective was to identify the main physical and morphological characteristics of the atmosphere, when the SCM associated with the WRE and HRE events. For this, a software was created that tracked the results provided by ForTraCC, allowing to separate only the SCM that were acting on the station located inside the NEBSA. The results showed that the SCM have similar physical and morphological characteristics when they were classified as WRE and HRE and both events occur more frequently in the period of OND and JFM. When analyzing the periods of each event, it was possible to verify that the HRE occurred more frequently in all quarters analyzed, possibly due to the greater intensity of the system, to be favored by the characteristics of the NEBSA region.
2	JORIO BEZERRA CABRAL JUNIOR TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND ARIDITY INDEX IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF BRAZIL, DURING 1980-2013 Advisor : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA REBECCA LUNA LUCENA HERMES ALVES DE ALMEIDA SAMIRA DE AZEVEDO SANTOS EMILIAVACA Data: Aug 3, 2018 Show Abstract .
3	POLLYANNE EVANGELISTA DA SILVA EPIDEMIOLOGICAL INDICATOR OF VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE EXTREME TO THE AMAZONIAN REGION AND BRAZILIAN NORTHEAST Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA GILVAN RAMALHO GUEDES LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES SAMIRA DE AZEVEDO SANTOS EMILIAVACA Data: Sep 10, 2018 Show Abstract In the amazonian region and the Brazilian northeast, extreme climatic events such as torrential rains and severe droughts are potentiated against a situation of poverty resulting in an increase or intensification of the incidence of endemic diseases, water supply problems, agricultural losses often leading to greater vulnerability. Thus, the main objective of this study is to construct and analyze an epidemiological vulnerability index associated with extreme climatic indexes for the Brazilian Amazon and Northeast region and it was analyzed the mesoregions of the study area according to the risk characteristics to the climatic trend. For this, different datasets were used: meteorological data from Xavier et al. (2015) from a project of the University of Texas and Federal University of Espírito Santo corresponding to the period from 1980 to 2013; health data provided by the Ministry of Health on websites of the System of Information on Mortality (SIM), SUS Hospital Information System (SIH / SUS) of DATASUS and demographic data with the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and Program of the United Nations (UNDP). The meteorological data were applied to the software RClimdex, which 21 indices were selected, 10 being related to precipitation and 7 to the temperature according to the meteorological and climatic conditions of each region of this study. For the creation of the epidemiological indicator of vulnerability to climatic extreme, the cumulative normal distribution was used to assign scores varying from 0 to 1 for the calculation of vulnerability components: risk, susceptibility and adaptive capacity. For the analysis, understanding and identification of the susceptible areas to morbimortalities, we used cluster analysis. The results showed that the indexes TXx, TNx, TX10p, TX90p, SDII, R20mm, CDD, R95p and PRECPTOT presented the highest trends of climatic changes for Amazonia and Brazilian Northeast, with emphasis on the Sergipe backwoods mesoregion. Although, it has observed high epidemiological vulnerability associated with climatic extreme for the whole region of study. The mesoregion of Marajó and Southeast of Amazonia had the highest vulnerability (0.98), explained by high adaptive incapacity, moderate susceptibility and high climatic risk. On the other hand, mesoregions as metropolitan region of Belém (0.72), East of Sergipe (0.68) and Rio Grande do Norte (0.75) presented lower vulnerabilities, associated with a low adaptive disability and low susceptibility, despite presenting a moderate climatic risk. The results of the cluster analysis revealed that groups that are very susceptible to morbimortalities presented high rates of respiratory diseases and infectious and parasitic diseases. This study made it possible to identify the mesoregions of Amazonia and Brazilian Northeast more vulnerable to the epidemiological aspect in the occurrence of extreme events.
4	IZABELLY CRISTINA MENDES TINÔCO . Advisor : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA PAULO SERGIO LUCIO ANA CLEIDE BEZERRA AMORIM GILVAN RAMALHO GUEDES SALOMÃO DE SOUSA MEDEIROS Data: Nov 19, 2018 Show Abstract .
5	MARCELO LUÍS DE AMORIM SOUZA DENGUE IN THE NORTHEAST OF BRAZIL: AN ANALYSIS OF THE SPATIAL-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION AND INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE AND SOCIO-SANITARY VARIABLES Advisor : LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE COMMITTEE MEMBERS : LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES JORIO BEZERRA CABRAL JUNIOR KENYA VALERIA MICAELA DE SOUZA NORONHA Data: Nov 19, 2018 Show Abstract Dengue is one of the major human diseases transmitted by mosquitoes and has caused several social and economic impacts in Brazil, particularly on human health. The Northeast Brazil (NEB) has experienced successive epidemic outbreaks of the disease. The aim of this study was to estimate dengue incidence rates for municipalities of NEB using the Empirical Bayesian Method (EB) and to identify dengue hotspots considering the precipitation homogeneous regions of NEB. It was also intended to estimate the Relative Risk (RR) of dengue epidemic rates according to the classification of the House Index (HI). And, finally, it was also aimed to identify profiles and types of climate and social-sanitary vulnerability to Aedes aegypti larval infestation and to dengue incidence in the municipalities of the NEB. Data from the Ministry of Health, IBGE, PNUD and ANA were used. The data analysis period was from 2001 to 2015. The methods used were: EB, Grade of Membership (GoM), Moran’s Index, RR and the tests: t of paired samples, Pearson and Kruskal-Wallis tests. The results showed that 66.56% (in 2002), 49.73% (in 2010) and 62.19% (in 2014) of NEB municipalities registered pre-epidemic (100<IR<300) or epidemic (IR>300) dengue rates. The North and South of the Semi-arid (NS and SS) are among the areas that presented the highest rates of dengue incidence (IR> 300).. In 2014, most municipalities (473) that performed LIRAa/HI were in Alert (1.00<HI<3.99) or in Risk conditions (HI>4.00). An association between HI classification and the IR (p-value <0.001) was found, indicating a RR of dengue 1.20 times greater (95%CI: 0.97-1.48; p-value:0.0803) in municipalities with HI in Alert and 1.81 times greater (95%CI: 1.43-2.29, p-value<0.001) in those with HI at risk compared to those with satisfactory HI. Constatou-se, a partir da utilização do GoM, que 66.3% of the NEB municipalities presented "high" or "intermediate" climate and social-sanitary vulnerability to larval infestation by Aedes aegypti and dengue incidence. Areas classified as "high" vulnerability had the worst social-sanitary conditions and highest annual precipitation rates. These are located mainly in the state of Maranhão (except for its southwestern portion) and scattered areas in the Piauí. It was also noted that the "low" vulnerability areas are located mainly in the coastal region (except in the state of Maranhão and Piauí). The results pointed out significant implications for the identification of areas with dengue epidemic risk trends in one of the regions of Brazil most vulnerable to climate changes.
6	HENRIQUE DO NASCIMENTO CAMELO INNOVATIVE HYBRID MODELS FOR WIND SPEED FORECAST IN NORTHEAST BRAZILIAN REGIONS Advisor : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO COMMITTEE MEMBERS : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO JOSÉ MARIA BRABO ALVES JOÃO BOSCO VERÇOSA LEAL JUNIOR MEIRY SAYURI SAKAMOTO PAULO CESAR MARQUES DE CARVALHO Data: Nov 23, 2018 Show Abstract At present it is possible to identify greater insertions of renewable resources of energies for generation of electricity in the national energy matrix, as is the case of wind generation. This can be justified in several respects, for example, in relation to the wind power source, it can play an important role in the matrix by providing a financially viable alternative to the main electricity generator in the country that is the hydro source. Another point in favor of wind power is the environmental issue, the use of this resource must be seen in this aspect. The amount of work on wind generation in the country grows each day bringing benefits to the particular sector providing guarantees of exploitation of the local winds. In this sense, the objective of this work is to present two innovative hybrid models which can help in the wind sector by being able to perform predictions of wind speeds with good accuracy. The models were elaborated from the mathematical combinations of classical models of time series with models of artificial intelligence. In the comparisons between the time series (observed and adjusted) it is possible to identify, for example, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) of approximately 98%, and also a percentage error value of around 4.5%, which according to the literature, confirm the good accuracy of the models. A large differential of the proposed hybrid models when compared to other traditional ones is that they can incorporate both linear and nonlinear characteristics, which are often found in time series, being this important condition to provide greater precision of the velocities of the predicted winds thus providing greater reductions in statistical error measures when compared to the classical models that compose them. The proposed hybrid models may represent important tools for decision-makers in the wind generation sector in terms of wind exploitation, however, other areas of interest can be analyzed for their feasibility. For example, as will be shown proposal of article in marine sciences from the forecasts of speed and direction of the auxiliary winds in the containment of oil spilled into the sea.
7	ELIO PESSOA CAZUZA Gravity waves with mecanism of coupling between troposphere-thermosphere: experimental evidences Advisor : GILVAN LUIZ BORBA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : GILVAN LUIZ BORBA DAVID MENDES MANILO SOARES MARQUES MARIA PAULETE PEREIRA MARTINS REGIA PEREIRA DA SILVA Data: Dec 11, 2018 Show Abstract The gravity waves can be defined as wavelike disturbances, almost periodic, which is horizontally and vertically propagate in the atmosphere, with characteristic periods of a few minutes to order three hours and spatial scale from a few kilometers to thousands of kilometers. The vertical propagation of gravity waves is a subject of particular interest, since they carry energy and momentum to the region of the lower termosphere to upper mesosfera. Hines published in the 1960s a series of studies suggesting that gravity waves of demonstrations provoke ionospheric disturbances (Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances, TID's). Thereafter several authors showed that the gravity waves and their ionospheric manifestations as TID's represent an important source of interaction between the neutral atmosphere and ionized and changes morphology and electrodynamics this ionosphere. The mechanisms of generation of gravity waves in regions close to the magnetic equator are often unknown making it difficult to understand the phenomenology of these structures, which suggests that this is an important topic in the media climatology studies and upper atmosphere. So we have to investigate what would be the main source of gravity waves near the magnetic equator, as well as understand how is the stratosphere-thermosphere coupling. In our studies of the gravity waves will use temperature profile data covering the geomagnetic quiet and disturbed periods, which shall include the solar cycles 23 and 24, and study periods between maximum and solar minimum. Keywords: Gravity waves; radiosondes; Coupling, troposphere-thermosphere
8	GLAYSON FRANCISCO BEZERRA DAS CHAGAS . Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE PAULO SERGIO LUCIO ALINE GOMES DA SILVA ANA CLEIDE BEZERRA AMORIM Data: Dec 12, 2018 Show Abstract .
9	OSÉAS MACHADO GOMES . Advisor : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE ENIO PEREIRA DE SOUZA MADSON TAVARES SILVA Data: Dec 14, 2018 Show Abstract .

2017

	Dissertations
1	LÍVIAN RAFAELY DE SANTANA GOMES PINHEIRO NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF OCEAN WAVES ON BEACHES OF NATAL/RN, NORTHEAST BRAZIL, BETWEEN 2012 AND 2014. Advisor : MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES ROSANE RODRIGUES CHAVES GRACO AURELIO CAMARA DE MELO VIANA VENERANDO EUSTAQUIO AMARO TEREZA CRISTINA MEDEIROS DE ARAÚJO Data: Jan 13, 2017 Show Abstract Along the coast of the Rio Grande do Norte, are verified peaks of erosion in sandy beaches with negative impacts from the social and economic point of view, in that maritime waves were important source of energy for carried of sediments. In this job, was ascertained the incident wave regime on the part of the coast eastern of the Rio Grande do Norte, especially on the shoreline between Ponta Negra beach and Via Costeira, extension of the urban coast in Natal / RN, between the years of 2012/2014. A SWAN numerical simulation model was applied, developed by the Delft University of Technology, operated by the graphic interface SOPRO, of the National Laboratory of Civil Engineering of Portugal. As initial boundary conditions in open sea, significant height information was used, average period and direction of wave propagation from the Wavewatch III base. The bathymetry was represented by the Nautical Charts 810 and 22100 of Brazilian Navy and the water level of tide gauge at Port of Natal. For segmentation in seasonal intervals, Cluster Analysis was applied the WWIII series, testing the significance of the groups by ANOVA test of variance. The months from January to April and from June to September were grouped into two groups, corresponding to predominant conditions of summer and winter, respectively. The months of May and October are part of another group that represents transitions among the first. November and December integrated a fourth group of wave regime during the studied period. It was observed the highest percentile of significant height exceeded 2.42m, with maximum in 2.97m mainly between the months of May to September. The year 2014 presented more energetic scenarios of wave incidence. Most of occurrences were around 1.59m. The occurrence of longer waves (long period) are concentrated around 7.14 s, with percentile 99 starting the 10.58 s, maximum 13.35 s. The most recurrent direction of propagation was near 99 degrees azimuth (East Southeast) with higher declines than 134 degrees (Southeast), influenced by the variations of the trade winds of the flows generated by South Atlantic High Pressure System and by the Eastern undulatory disorders. In general, the city of Nísia Floresta received the highest waves during the period. In the extension of Ponta Negra and Via Costeira the cove of Morro do Careca has attenuated undulation by diffraction of the promontory, where the period varied around 7.55 s and height of 0.65 s and the incidence of energy increased toward Via Costeira, with period of 6.88 s and height of 0.76m during the winter months.
2	RICARDO BRUNO DE ARAÚJO TENÓRIO DEVELOPMENT OF A SOFTWARE FOR THE CHARACTERIZATION OF OCEANIC/ATMOSPHERIC EVENTS: APPLICATIONS USING CHARACTERISTIC PARAMETERS OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND DATA FROM GNSS AND METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS OF NATAL-RN, BRAZIL. Advisor : MARIO PEREIRA DA SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : MARIO PEREIRA DA SILVA DAVID MENDES GILVAN LUIZ BORBA JOÃO GUALBERTO DE CERQUEIRA JÚNIOR Data: Feb 17, 2017 Show Abstract Among the various factors influencing the positioning through artificial satellites or GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System), we highlight the error caused by the Tropospheric Zenith Delay, which is basically composed by a hydrostatic component (ZHD - Zenithal Hidrostatic Delay), influenced predominantly by nitrogen and oxygen, and the second one, a wet (ZWD - Zenithal Wet Delay), which is influenced by the presence of water vapor in the Troposphere. Both components can be estimated from observations of GNSS signals collected from ground-based receiving stations. The wet component has a strong relationship with the IWV (Integrated Water Vapor) which in turn is directly influenced by the amount of precipitated water vapor in the troposphere. This work aims to develop a graphical interface program with main focus on the generation of IWV databases obtained through radiofrequency signals from any GNSS receiving station, and to relate them to oceanic and meteorological variables. The software PROCEOS (Program for the Characterization of Atmospheric Oceanic Events), has as a differential when compared to other softwares: (a) it is structurally friendly with ease of use in relation to software of the genre; (b) It has a multitasking structure, also allowing the user to perform reanalysis data manipulations of weather and climate centers, such as the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the OAFLUX (Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea for Global Oceans ), as well as spatial and temporal distributions of the variables - maps and time series – in addition to filtering and perform statistical treatments of the results obtained, such as imputations and correlations of variables. Furthermore, the software allows to extrapolation the variables wind and evaporation on the ocean surface, in levels of atmospheric pressure. The software has been tested to predict rainfall using data from GNSS-RNNA and Meteorological Natal-A304 ground-based stations, both located at the UFRN Central Campus in Natal city, Brazil. PROCEOS has produced excellent results when related to other software of the genre. It also presents itself as an alternative and promising tool for nowcasting predictions, since its results are used as input data for weather forecasting models.
3	THIAGO RODRIGUES DE SOUZA AN ANALYSIS OF THE BOX-JENKINS AND BOX-TIAO METHODOLOGY FOR SAZONAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST. CASE STUDY: NORTHEAST OF BRAZIL Advisor : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO COMMITTEE MEMBERS : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES MARCELO BOURGUIGNON PEREIRA ALEXANDRE TORRES SILVA DOS SANTOS Data: Feb 21, 2017 Show Abstract The objective of this work is to perform a comparative study with adjustments of predictions models by the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) and Box-Tiao (ARIMAX) method for monthly cumulative precipitation in six cities of the Northeast of Brazil, being chosen according to the classification Weather forecast for Köppen. Having as exogenous variables: sea surface temperatures of the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. In all the cumulative rainfall series, the presence of the seasonal component was verified, and, due to the constant variance assumption and normality of the data not being met, it was applied in the original series to the Box Cox transformation. Of the final models by ARIMA and ARIMAX, we have that the ARIMAX model showed the best fit to the data under study, presenting lower values for AIC information criteria, mean error and mean square error.
4	MARIANA OLIVEIRA CEDRAZ Statistical analysis of atmospheric concentrations of the PM10 particulate material in three distinct regions of the Rio de Janeiro state Advisor : MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : ADRIANA GIODA JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES Data: Feb 21, 2017 Show Abstract The study of atmospheric pollution is becoming increasingly common, as this causes impacts both at climate and environmental levels as well as in human health. Air pollution is the result of contamination by gases and solid and liquid particles suspended in the atmosphere. The effect can be immediate or medium / long term, since the pollution present in the atmosphere can be difficult to disperse. Particulate matter is the pollutant that presents the greatest danger, as it attaches itself to other pollutants and can become even more harmful. The objective of this study is to analyze and compare the concentration of PM10 in three regions of Rio de Janeiro, Cidade de Deus, Seropédica and Duque de Caxias, verifying if the type of activity developed (urban, rural or industrial) influences the pollution. In addition, verifying if the air quality standards adopted by Brazil are respected in the three regions of study, as well as verifying the trajectory of the pollutant of each region, through the "" Hysplit. For the current study, data from the PM10, from 1998 to 2013, from the three regions of the state of Rio de Janeiro with totally different characteristics were provided by the State Environmental Institute (INEA-RJ), with the Seropédica region being a rural area , Cidade de Deus an urban region and the region of Duque de Caxias, characterized as industrial. The analysis will involve data imputation techniques as well as time series analysis. As the initial results, the difference between the means of the regions stands out, being the rural area, Seropédica, with a lower concentration of PM10, having a mean of 33.2 μg / m3, while the regions of Cidade de Deus have an average of 90 μg / m3. Besides of identifying that air quality standards are not respected for most of the days under study in urban and industrial regions, unlike the rural region, which indicates preliminarily that the type of activity developed in the region influences the concentration of PM10 . It is hoped that this study can serve as a basis for the elaboration of public 4 policies, provide knowledge and awareness of the population on the importance of reducing the emission of pollutants.
5	CYNTHIA GABRIELLA CUNHA DA SILVA SOARES PHYSICAL-CHEMICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF PARTICULATE ATMOSPHERIC MATERIAL COLLECTED IN THE VALLEY OF AÇU / RN Advisor : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN COMMITTEE MEMBERS : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES DIOGO PEREIRA BEZERRA GLAUBER JOSÉ TUROLLA FERNANDES Data: Feb 22, 2017 Show Abstract This work aimed to characterize particulate matter suspended in the air at a representative site of the Açu Valley exposed to biomass burning emissions, where the total particulate matter should be quantified through gravimetric analysis, chemical composition and morphological analyses of the particulate matter by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) equipped with X-ray Dispersive Energy Detectors. The Açu Valley is located in the western part of the state, has an economy focused on agriculture (fruit growing for export), livestock and mainly ceramics and oil industries. The samples were collected at the Federal Institute of Science and Technology Education of Rio Grande do Norte, Ipanguaçu campus, for a period of two months (May 25, 2016 to June 25, 2016 and November 1-30, 2016), each month referring to the dry and humid season, respectively. For the collection, two samplers were used, one of a particulate matterup to a diameter of 10 μg (AGV-MP10), available only for the month of June, and another one of total suspended particles (HANDI-VOL), used for the two periods of the campaign. The samples were collected in accordance with the Brazilian Association of Technical Standards (ABNT), described for the Large Volume Sampler (AGV) and Total Suspended Particles (PTS). Subsequently, the gravimetric analysis was performed, calculating the mass concentration of this material through the difference between the mass of the filter before and aftersampling. In June, PTS concentrations varied between 146, 05 μg / m3 and 29,89 μg / m3, although in the first three days of samples there was interference concerning the land-use near the sampling site. The values referring to the PTS concentrations in each day sampled for the month of June reveal that no value was higher than the primary standard stipulated by CONAMA that is 240μg / m3 for a sample time of 24 hours. In November, PTS concentrations ranged from 44.75 μg / m 3 to 81.25 μg / m 3. The daily averages of PM10 concentrations for the month of June show that in four days, the daily air quality standard established by the World Health Organization (WHO) was 50 μg / m³ on May 25 ( 86.48 μg / m3), 26/05 (81.78 μg / m3), 27/07 (66.64 μg / m3) and 07/06 (54.34 μg / m3). The numbers obtained also show that the concentrations are lower than the air quality standard established by CONAMA 03/90 of 150μg / m3 for daily average with 24 hour sampling, the sampling site did not reach the value established by the organ on any day. SEM analysis showed images of soot and volatile ashes from industrial sources, as well as structures in the form of agglomerates and particles of plate type morphology. It was possible to identify with SEM / EDS that particles with chemical composition of higher concentration were present in the filters: S, K, Si, Al, Cl, Fe, Ba, Ca, Na, Mg and Zn. The air masses for this analyzed day are moving in the preferred Northwest direction. The HYSPLIT model was used to carry out the simulations of dispersion and deposition of the particulate material on 01/06 and 22/06 in order to know the trajectory of these pollutants in the atmosphere.
6	FERNANDA KATIUSCA DOS SANTOS The red pottery industry and the indexes ofclimatic extremes for in Rio Grande do Norte and Paraíba. Advisor : KELLEN CARLA LIMA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : KELLEN CARLA LIMA BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE ANA CAROLINA VASQUES FREITAS Data: Feb 23, 2017 Show Abstract In recent years the Industrial sector of red pottery has developed representativelywith the implantation of micro and small Ceramics companies throughout Brazil.There were, however, no precautions regarding the use of natural resources used asa source of raw material for the Industry. Thus, in this study, we investigated theindications of possible micrometeorological alterations associated to the StructuralCeramics Industry in the meteorological elements in five ceramic poles located inthe states of Rio Grande do Norte and Paraíba, during the period of 1980 to 2013.The In order to verify if the meteorological variables: precipitation,evapotranspiration, radiation, wind speed, humidity, and maximum and minimumtemperature presented tendencies, the Mann Kendal test was used; And to calculatethe indexes of climatic extremes was used the Data Set for Indexes of ClimaticExtremes - RClimDex. Five ceramic poles were identified, where there werenegative trends for precipitation, minimum temperature, relative humidity and wind.And, positive trends for the variables maximum temperature, evapotranspiration andsolar radiation. There was a trend in all poles, except for the minimum temperaturefor the P2 pole, which has a higher number of ceramics. A trend was also identifiedfor the indexes of climatic extremes of Rx1day, R99p, Txn, Tnx, Tn10p, Tx10p, Txxand Tnn. With positive trends of temperature extremes for all poles studied, with theexception of pole P1, which showed a decreasing trend, thus indicating a decreasein the maximum values of the minimum temperature; And the P2 pole that did notshow a trend. These contrary behaviors may be associated with anthropic actions inthe region, specifically the intense ceramist activity. However, it can not be saidcategorically that this behavior is associated only with anthropic actions, since itmay be under the influence of global climatic factors.
7	RAFAEL VICTOR DE MELO SILVA REMOTE SENSING AND CONTENT ANALYSIS TO THE STUDY OF HUMAN OCCUPATION, PRECIPITATION DATA AND COASTAL MORPHODYNAMICS OF PONTA NEGRA BEACH, NATAL/RN. Advisor : SEBASTIAO MILTON PINHEIRO DA SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : SEBASTIAO MILTON PINHEIRO DA SILVA LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE PRISCILLA TELES DE OLIVEIRA JACIMÁRIA FONSECA DE MEDEIROS Data: Feb 24, 2017 Show Abstract Man has always sought to install his infrastructure of occupation, defense and survival even closer and focused on the Coastal Zones. From this perspective, the growth of large urban centers has been associated with this geographic portion of space. Ponta Negra Beach, located in the south of the city of Natal (RN), illustrates well the process practiced by the man of occupation of the lands, through the exploitation of natural resources, imposing changes in the landscape with the deforestation, the practice of cuts and embankments for urbanization, speculation of the price of land and the installation of numerous economic activities along the beach. The implementation of public policies that are practically unique to tourism also have significant environmental impacts in coastal areas. The dynamics of the occupation of Ponta Negra caused favorable conditions to the increasing erosive process that emerged physical damages to the beach boardwalk of the capital of Rio Grande do Norte. The research had the general objective of constructing an integrated analysis of the Coastal Zone of Ponta Negra Beach, Natal / RN. Two specific objectives were also defined: the first is to build a profile of human occupation and coastal events (Tide, Precipitation, winds) over 44 years, and the second was to identify the morphological changes of the beach from 1969 to 2016. For the database was extracted from the journalistic collection of Tribuna do Norte Journal, from 1950 to 2016 and later related to the behavior of precipitation (Meteorological Station of UFRN-INMET) of the same period. The sediment volume values of the morphological profile were collected locally in the 12-month period (2012/2013). In the identification of the previous features, 1969 aerial photographs of the Cruzeiro do Sul Air Service were used, and the current ones were exported from the Google Earth PRO software. Methodologically, it was necessary to use remote sensing, digital image processing in GIS and content analysis, and applied to the statistics in the various data and correlations. The process of evaluation of the coastal features showed that in 1969 the urban spot represented 16.4% of the area of the total space cut and in 2016 more than 60%. This asserts the hypothesis that the destruction of environmental protection features has potentiated the erosive process. The other classes presented a decrease of area, as opposed to the urban spot. In the vegetation class, there is a decrease from 37.2% to 13.6% and this composition is responsible for the fixation of the unconsolidated sediments. From the 50 to 2016 there is an increase in the number of records found and this significant increase is noticed in the change from the 60s to 70s, in which respectively they had 1270 and 4903. At the end of the 44 years analyzed, there were 15,484 reports. Precipitation represented 50% of the events reported by the newspaper mentioned above, and this reinforces the attention given to this variable and the association of coastal events. The result of the erosion monitoring in the beach profile and the monthly cumulative precipitation shows a negative correlation.
8	JEANE GALDINO FAUSTINO LIMA MICROMETEOROLOGICAL CHANGES CAUSED BY THE DESIDATION PROCESS IN SERIDÓ POTIGUAR Advisor : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA KELLEN CARLA LIMA WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES MADSON TAVARES SILVA Data: May 30, 2017 Show Abstract The change in soil cover causes changes in the energy balance and surface water balance. Inadequate soil use can lead to an advanced degradation condition, which is called a desertification process. In Brazil, there are several Desertification Nuclei, among which the Seridó Desertification Nucleus (RN-PB). Thus, the present work was based on the premise that the desertification process in the Seridó Potiguar (RN) region has possibly caused variability in surface temperature, albedo and energy and mass fluxes (evapotranspiration / evaporative fraction). To verify the changes resulting from this process, a descriptive / comparative analysis was performed between degraded area data and preserved Caatinga area (Seridó-ESEC Ecological Station). For this, a hybrid algorithm was used, which consists of parametrization of several algorithms such as SEBAL, SSEB, S-SEBI, and TM-Landsat 5 images, from orbit-points: 215/64, acquired free of charge Together with INPE - National Space Research Institute - under the condition of a clear sky, in the period 1995-2008. With this, it was observed that, due to the results for the studied period, there was stagnation of the heat flux in the soil (increase of 0.5%), an increase of the albedo, around 17% and 19%, with consequent decrease of the Radiation balance between 5% and 7%, and an increase in the evaporative fraction of 40% and 34% for the degraded area and ESEC, respectively, and the latter should be better analyzed, as it may have been influenced or even overestimated the effects Two extreme events (Drought in 1998 and rains higher than expected in 2008).
9	FRANCISCO AGUSTINHO DE BRITO NETO ANALYSIS OF THERMODYNAMICS BETWEEN THE ATMOSPHERE SEA-ICEA ROUND THE WEDDELL SEA Advisor : DAVID MENDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DAVID MENDES CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA MARCIO MACHADO CINTRA MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES PAULO NOBRE Data: Oct 31, 2017 Show Abstract The polar regions have a crucial role in the planet’s climate, because constitute real sinks of energy and, as such, are essential for the redistribution of heat from the oceans and the atmosphere. The aim of this study is to evaluate the different weather and climatic conditions around the Weddell Sea region, to characterize and identify possible trends over time, and what the impact of weather and climate conditions in the physical and dynamic properties of sea ice in the same region. Thus, the numerical simulation will be used to estimate the distribution of sea ice thickness in the Weddell Sea. The study area corresponds to the Weddell Sea that is located the southernmost part of the Atlantic Ocean between the latitudes 87° 10’ S and 55° 00’ S and longitudes 84° 00’ W and 10° 00’ E. The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) and the edge of the Antarctic continent are the western and southern boundaries, respectively. The northern border extends from AP to 10° E. This area covers approximately 3.4 million of Km² corresponding approximately the size of the Weddell Turn. The daily data of Atmospheric Pressure, Cloud Fraction, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Air Temperature at 2 meters and Dew Point Temperature of the network of meteorological stations in Antarctica, made available by Argentina Antarctic Institute. The other data are daily heat flux and radiation extracted from the reconstructed Era-Interim database. Both databases are for the period comprising January 1979 to December 2015, setting up a total of 37 years. In this proposal, statistical methods will be used, such as: the analysis of time series with the purpose of evaluating trends and seasonality; Cluster analysis to identify stations with similar patterns, since they are stations located in different regions of the Weddell Sea. Finally, numerical modeling will be used to analyze the behavior of the sea ice thickness and its possible relations with the atmospheric conditions observed in the observational stations used in this study
	Thesis
1	ANTONIO FELIPE DE PAULA JUNIOR CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND IMPACTS ON SEA SALT PRODUCTION IN RIO GRANDE DO NORTE/BRAZIL Advisor : KELLEN CARLA LIMA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : KELLEN CARLA LIMA DAVID MENDES MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES FÁBIO PERDIGÃO VASCONCELOS IDEMAURO ANTONIO RODRIGUES DE LARA Data: Jun 1, 2017 Show Abstract The production of sea salt in Rio Grande do Norte has contributed significantly to the social and economic development of the State, creating jobs, increasing incomes and adding to the public revenue through taxes. Climatic conditions that favor this activity are observed in regions of low latitude characterized by high temperatures and constant winds, as well as low precipitation. Thus, as the production of sea salt depends on climate conditions, the aim of this thesis is to analyze, statistically, how the influences of the climate variability and changes affect the production of this mineral. To this end, the thesis comprises four articles. In the first article, the main objective was to analyze the correlation between these climatic variables and the production of sea salt, as well as estimate the intensity with which the volume of this mineral varies as a result of climate change in the city of Macau, RN. The results show positive correlations between the volume of sea salt production and the temperature, hours of sunlight, evaporation and wind speed, and negative correlations with precipitation and relative humidity. In relation to climate changes, findings showed an increase in the volume of sea salt in four scenarios of climate change, which were presented by the IPCC, in the city of Macau, RN. Results showed that the best scenario for the salt industry proved to be solar evaporation at a rate of RCP8.5. In the second article, the main objective was to analyze the influence of the ENSO on sea salt production in RN. The results showed positive and statistically significant associations with the El Niño phenomenon. In relation to La Niña, the results do not show statistically significant associations with this phenomenon, regarding the production of sea salt in RN. In the third article, the main objective was to estimate the impact of climate change on the volume of sea salt produced in Rio Grande do Norte. The results showed positive impacts on the volume of sea salt produced in the four scenarios of climate change. In the scenario with less carbonic gas emissions, the positive impact, in relation to the average in the period studied, will be from 9.1227% in the RCP2.6 scenario to 16.5350% in the RCP8.5 scenario, making it possible to affirm that the climate changes projected by the IPCC will have a positive impact on the production of sea salt. In the fourth article, the main objective was to estimate the economic impact of climate change on sea salt production. The results showed that climate changes will generate a positive impact on the income from sales in the sea salt industry in RN, in all of the climate change scenarios. The average annual increase in income from sales in this industry is estimated at varying from 9.1227% in scenario RCP2.6 to 16.5350% in scenario RCP8,5, making it possible to affirm that the sea salt industry in RN will benefit, economically, from climate changes.
2	RONABSON CARDOSO FERNANDES Study of the Influence of the Climate-Forcing on the Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting over the North and Northeast Regions of Brazil Advisor : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO COMMITTEE MEMBERS : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO DAVID MENDES GILVAN LUIZ BORBA JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ JOSEMIR ARAÚJO NEVES ÉVERTON FRIGO Data: Aug 31, 2017 Show Abstract Considering the perspective of increasing extremes of rainfall due to climate change, studying the influence of solar cycle activity and cosmic ray flux on this meteorological variable is of great importance. Rainfall is a preponderant factor for agriculture, the energy sector, livestock and for the economy. With this, it is extremely important to study the relationship between them. Initially, it was necessary to reconstruct several historical series with a percentage of less than 60% of missing data in the historical GCR series, in which the MTSDI method was pointed out as the best model, among those studied, to perform the imputation of observational data Of GCR. Thus, the Huancayo / PER station was chosen to correlate with rainfall in the North and Northeast of Brazil. It was verified that there was statistical coherence by the Wavelet Coherence technique between rainfall with GCR and SSN in the monthly, seasonal, annual, interannual and interdecadal scale. Maximal Overlay Transform (MODWT) showed that there is a significant correlation between the series studied in the scales of 5.3 years, 10.6 years, 22.3 years and 44.6 years. And, finally, a model can be constructed to predict the historical series of rainfall, proving to be satisfactory. Therefore, this research showed that there is influence of GCR flux and solar activity on Brazilian tropical rainfall.
3	MARCONIO SILVA DOS SANTOS PRECIPITATION STOCHASTIC MODELLING VIA INTENSIVE COMPUTACIONAL METHODS Advisor : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA PAULO SERGIO LUCIO PEDRO LEITE DA SILVA DIAS TERCIO AMBRIZZI WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: Nov 24, 2017 Show Abstract In this work, it was made a statistical modeling of precipitation. This is a methodological work that uses stochastic simulations to estimate the probability distributions related to this atmospheric variable. In order to estimate the parameters of these distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were used to generate large size synthetic samples from observed data. The used methods were the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the Gibbs sampler. The simulations were performed under the hypothesis that the days of of the same period of the year (month or rainy season) can be considered to be identically distributed concernig the probability of precipitation. This research allowed the production of four papers. The first paper used the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to model the probability of occurrence of precipitation on any day of the month. The simulations of this paper were perfomed with observed data of some Brazilian cities. The other papers used the Gibbs sampler and the proposed methods were applied to data from cities in the Northeast Brazil. In the second paper, Beta and Binomial distributions were used to model the number of days of the month with occurrence of precipitation. In the third paper, the Poisson distribution was used to model the number of days with precipitation extreme values in the rainy season. An alternative method for estimating these extreme values and their distribution is presented in the fourth paper, using the Gamma distribution. According to the results obtained by these researches, the Gibbs sampler was considered to be adequate to estimate distributions in the modeling of precipitation on cities for which there are few historical data.
4	JAIME RODRIGUEZ COARITI Behavior of solar ultraviolet radiation and its effects on human health in the cities of La Paz - Bolivia and Natal - Brazil Advisor : JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ COMMITTEE MEMBERS : JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ DAVID MENDES MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES NEUSA MARIA PAES LEME FRANCISCO RAIMUNDO DA SILVA MARCELO DE PAULA CORREA Data: Dec 15, 2017 Show Abstract In recent years several studies have shown that ultraviolet radiation (R-UV) causes impacts in several areas, among them, human health and climatology. The cities of La Paz - Bolivia and Natal - Brazil, are characterized by high R-UV fluxes throughout the year. These cities have typical and proper characteristics: Natal is a coastal city with a tropical climate, while La Paz is located at altitude above 3,600 m in the Andes. The main objectives of this work were: 1) to evaluate the behavior of R-UV levels by means of the ultraviolet index (UVI); the Minimum Erythemical Dose (DEM) and the Cumulative Erythema Dose (DEA) determination, in the cities of La Paz and Natal, between 1997 and 2012; 2) to perform a description of the main climatic characteristics of these cities that can identify potential factors that could justify such high levels of radiation and 3) to evaluate the incidence of photodermatoses (FTD) observed in La Paz, seeking its possible association with climatic factors. The information on FTD cases in the city of La Paz was collected at the Central Polyclinic of the Hospital "Caja Nacional de Salud" (CNS). The R-UV information was obtained by Brewer spectrophotometers, installed in both locations. Regarding the human health area, the generalized estimation equations were used to determine the relative risk of FTD by sex and age group and so the incidence rates of FTD were evaluated. About the intensity of the R-UV, it was carried out a validation of the information collected by the spectrophotometers through modeling. It was observed that, regardless of the time of the year, around midday, the IUV records corresponded to the "Very High and Extreme" scales in the two cities. The DEM for phototypes IV (450 Jm-2) was reached already in the first two hours of the day. In summers, the DEA reached a maximum of 12,950 Jm-2 in La Paz and 7,546 Jm-2 in Natal. In La Paz, there were 12,153 cases of FTD, of which 63.7% were female. The average Incidence Rate (TI) was 31 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, showing a 4.7 times higher risk in the elderly compared to the 0 to 4 year age range. One of the main difficulties in the development of this research was the access to health information in Natal in a reference hospital (Hospital Universitário Onofre Lopes - HUOL-UFRN) due to the fact that the research would have to be submitted to an ethics committee for evaluation and/or approval. However, there was no guarantee of approval. In order to not postpone the study, it was decided to restrict the analysis of the clinical cases only to the city of La Paz. Concerning the health of the population in La Paz it is emphasized that the incidence of FTD in the female sex is greater in relation to the male, with special emphasis on the age group of 15 to 59 years. It is concluded that there is a need to adopt educational policies and strategies for individual protection, both in La Paz and in Natal, due to the exposure of the populations of these cities to the high fluxes of R-UV observed in soil.

2016

	Dissertations
1	MARCOS SAMUEL MATIAS RIBEIRO DESASTRES NATURAIS E SUA RELAÇÃO COM O REGIME DE PRECIPITAÇÃO NO ESTADO DO RIO GRANDE DO NORTE Advisor : MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE PAULO SERGIO LUCIO WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES REGINA CÉLIA DOS SANTOS ALVALÁ Data: May 30, 2016 Show Abstract Os Desastres Naturais (DN) são estabelecidos pela ocorrência de fenômenos naturais em áreas ou regiões habitadas, e caracterizados pelo fato de seu impacto causar danos à população afetada. Caso não apresente danos à sociedade ou aconteça em áreas não ocupadas, o fenômeno é considerado apenas um evento natural. As ocorrências de Desastres Naturais originam grandes problemas e prejuízos para as sociedades afetadas, além de ocasionar grandes perdas humanas. O objetivo do trabalho é realizar uma análise das ocorrências dos DN nas dezenove microrregiões do estado do Rio Grande do Norte, no período de1991 a2012, traçando um paralelo com os registros ao longo do tempo dos limiares de precipitação. Utilizou-se de técnicas estatísticas, como análise espacial para a construção de mapas temáticos de forma a identificar áreas com maior risco, e o teste de qui-quadrado para verificar associações entre as variáveis. O Índice de Precipitação Padronizado (SPI) foi considerado, objetivando evidenciar as condições meteorológicas das áreas analisadas no momento da publicação dos Decretos de Estado de Emergência ou Calamidade Pública. Os resultados demonstraram um aumento expressivo de 98,7% nos registros das ocorrências para o Estado, uma vez que nos 11 (onze) primeiros anos foram registrados 535 ocorrências e nos 11 anos subsequentes foram registrados 1.063, com um total de 2.447.683 pessoas afetadas por DN. Para o Estado, os fenômenos que apresentaram maior frequência foram: as estiagem/seca (81,1%), as enxurradas e as inundações (18,9%), provenientes das relações de fatores com características entre o natural e social. Os dados apresentaram relações estatisticamente significativas entre as ocorrências para os dois períodos em análise, bem como sua relação com a precipitação média acumulada anual. A compreensão deste comportamento ao longo do tempo levará as autoridades competentes, a identificar as condições que se encontra a sociedade, possibilitando no direcionamento de ações e políticas públicas eficazes na gestão para a mitigação do risco a desastres naturais.
2	EDICLÊ DE SOUZA FERNANDES DUARTE ANALYSIS AND CHARACTERIZATION OF ATMOSPHERIC PARTICULATEFINE MATTER IN THE METROPOLITAN REGION OF NATAL-RN Advisor : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN COMMITTEE MEMBERS : ELENA MONTILLA-ROSERO GLAUBER JOSÉ TUROLLA FERNANDES JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES Data: Jun 28, 2016 Show Abstract This study aimed to achieve a chemical characterization of PM 2.5 aerosol collected by a Harvard Impactor at Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte (latitude 5º49'29 '' South and longitude 35º13'34 '' west), Brazil. Sampling was performed daily using a 37 mm quartz filters. gravimetric techniques were used, quantification of Carbon Black (CB), and fluorescence X-ray analysis. The sampling MP2.5 occurred continuously in the period from 3 March 2015 and 31 March 2016. The preliminary March results to August 2015 show that the monthly averages ranged from 14.97 to 3:38 μg/m3. While the daily concentrations ranged from 70.98 to 0.25 μg/m3 to PM2.5 for the same period. Note that if the month of June showed the highest BC, approximately 1,18 μg/m³. This result is important because the month of March was the highest monthly had a concentration of PM2.5, while the month of June was the one with the lowest concentration. The month of June weather are comparable to March, given that it rained on average 300 mm per month in these two months. However, cultural facts enhanced the BC concentrations in June as many open wood burning bonfires occur due to the celebrations of the St. John’s holiday. Analysis by Xray fluorescence identified the chemical elements of the collected particles with highest concentrations in the filters: S, K, Si, Al, Cl, Fe, P, Ca, Mn, and Ca. Most of these were of anthropogenic origin according to their enrichment factor, while Na, Mg, Sn, Zn, Al, Fe and Ti originated from natural sources. The results of PM2.5 concentrations were statistically related to the meteorological variables for information about the effects of these variables on the concentration of PM. They were also made simulations dispersion and deposition of the particulate material using the model HYSPLIT trajectories.
3	GILVAN LUTERO DE CARVALHO FILHO Estimate of Integrated Water Vapor using data from gauge gauge GNSS stations for application in tropospheric on Natal and Mossoró cities, in Rio Grande do Norte State, Brazil. Advisor : MARIO PEREIRA DA SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DEUSDEDIT MONTEIRO MEDEIROS FRANCISCO RAIMUNDO DA SILVA JOSE HUMBERTO DE ARAUJO MARIO PEREIRA DA SILVA Data: Sep 28, 2016 Show Abstract The GNSS signal analysis (Global Navigation Satellite System) issued by satellites has been widely used in the field of geodynamics and geodesy, as a sensor for speed measurements and displacement of tectonic plates and the representation of the shape and the Earth's surface. However, the satellite signal is delayed as it crosses the earth's atmosphere, specifically in two of its layers: (a) the ionospheric layer, where the signal is delayed by ionized atoms present in this region, and (b) the tropospheric layer, due to the presence of water vapor, and is strongly related to the amount of water vapor precipitable present in that region. This work presents data analysis of GNSS signals obtained from surface gauge stations, aiming applications related to the amount of water vapor in the troposphere. Data from GNSS signals were obtained from IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística) through RBMC web (Rede Brasileira de Monitoramento Continuo dos Sistemas GNSS). Data processing was performed using the GIPSY software, from JPL-NASA (Jet Propulsion Laboratory), which processes the observed data from satellites and provides ZTD values (Zenithal Tropospheric Delay). Knowing the temperature and pressure on the antenna, one can estimate IWV (Integrated Water Vapor), which can be related to the local pluviometry. Applications were made on the cities of Natal and Mossoró, in the Rio Grande do Norte State, and correlations were made between the variables from the time series obtained for the ZTD parameters, IWV and Pluviometry, using statistical analysis from the R-software. The use of GNSS signals has been used as a tool for NWP, numerical weather prediction, using the IWV parameter as input for applications in Nowcasting models.
	Thesis
1	ANA CLEIDE BEZERRA AMORIM INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL ATLANTIC SUBREGION ON THE PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN OF NORTHEAST BRAZIL Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA DAVID MENDES MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES VENERANDO EUSTAQUIO AMARO EVERALDO BARREIROS DE SOUZA SAMIRA DE AZEVEDO SANTOS EMILIAVACA Data: Jun 17, 2016 Show Abstract At this study identified the influence of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) similar of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean in the north east of Northeast Brazil (NLNEB) precipitation. Hydrometeorological network of the Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) validate a product of the University of Delaware covering the 1900 to 2008 period. Were used monthly SST data from NOAA - Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature V3B (NOAA_ERSST_V3) for areas of the Atlantic and the Pacific between 40ºN and 40ºS latitudes. We consider three large-scale environment: presence of El Niño in the Pacific and the positive difference between SST anomalies on the Northern (5-20 ° N, 60-30 ° W) and South (0-20 ° S, 30 ° W -10 ° E) areas of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean (unfavorable environment); presence of La Niña in the Pacific and negative difference between the SST anomalies on the Northern (5-20 ° N, 60-30 ° W) and South (0-20 ° S, 30 ° W-10 ° E) areas of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean (favorable environment); absence of El Niño and La Niña, as well as the absence of SST anomalies on the Northern areas (5-20 ° N, 60-30 ° W) and South (0-20 ° S, 30 ° W-10 ° E) Atlantic Tropical (Neutral environment).The cluster analysis was applied to the SST monthly data at each grid point at the three climatic environment of the Atlantic Ocean. Euclidean distance was used as similarity (dissimilarity) measurement, the Ward's Minimum Variance agglomerative Method as connection method and Silheuta graphic was used to assess the partition in each group. Were identified clusters six at each climatic environment. Student-t test identified subgroups four with significant differences in the SST averages between FAV / DESFAV and neutral environment. The multiple linear regression (MLR) by principal components was used to verify the groups potential prediction in the NLNEB precipitation. The ocean-atmosphere interaction revealed FAV environment groups with potential prediction for the NLNEB precipitation, the areas of the DESFAV environment not statistically significant (p-value <0.05) in the NLNEB precipitation.
2	CARLOS MAGNO LIMA FERNANDES E SILVA Education for Environmental and Climate Change Advisor : FRANCISCO ALEXANDRE DA COSTA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : FRANCISCO ALEXANDRE DA COSTA GILVAN LUIZ BORBA FERNANDO MOREIRA DA SILVA JOSÉ ESPÍNOLA SOBRINHO WYLLYS ABEL FARKATT TABOSA Data: Jul 15, 2016 Show Abstract Environmental and Climate changes are interdisciplinary themes of high complexity, which in recent years has been widely disseminated to society in various media. These environmental climate changes has been validated by the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as well as other environmental bodies and the results indicate a worrying future for the climate, environment and humanity. Much of the negatives effects of these changes are caused by human excessive activities in nature. These excesses are made to meet the demands of consumerism contemporary , a social model that is generated by a misinterpretation of natural resources and powered by the rational scientific current paradigm of development. This paper proposes that reforms in the education system can mitigate the long term, the acceleration of climate changes and the environmental degradation. The basis of this reform are high investments in better quality of education, with a greater focus on the dimension environmental aiming to educate the human being, about importance of the environment to humanity. In this sense, education can increase understanding of the causes and effects, of acceleration of climate changes environmental, through many pedagogical processes and transform human activities harmful in sustainable activities.
3	VANESSA DE ALMEIDA DANTAS Influence of weather conditions in Radon concentration in Caatinga area an atlantic dune. Advisor : THOMAS FERREIRA DA COSTA CAMPOS COMMITTEE MEMBERS : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA ENIO BUENO PEREIRA JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN SAMIRA DE AZEVEDO SANTOS EMILIAVACA THOMAS FERREIRA DA COSTA CAMPOS Data: Aug 31, 2016 Show Abstract Radon (Rn-222) is a radiative noble-gas colorless, odorless, tasteless, dense (9,73kg/m3) and highly soluble in water (solubility 1,67x10-4 at 25 °C and 1 atm), which, with theexception of carbon dioxide, is the gas with greatest solubility in the atmosphere. This studyinvestigated the variation and correlation of meteorological variables with the emanations ofRadon and atmospheric ions in an equatorial forest and Caatinga environments of the state ofRio Grande do Norte, Brasil. Specifically, little is known on Northeastern biomes of Brazil(NEB) about the Rn-222 behavior in relation to the distribution within the different levels ofthe lower troposphere, such as the Atlantic Forest Dune and Caatinga biomes. The objectivewas to investigate the relationship between meteorological variables, atmosphericconcentrations of Rn-222 and atmospheric ions during the period characterized as dry andrainy in the municipality of Apodi-RN and Parnamirim-RN, inserted in the Caatinga andAtlantic Forest Dune biome in the northeast, which covers about 800,000 Km2 and 19,427Km2 respectively. The measurements were taken at 1.5 m above the ground. Air temperaturedata, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, atmospheric pressure, as well asRn-222 andatmospheric ion concentrations were collected. The results showed a bimodal pattern in dailybehavior of Rn-222 concentration of observed every day, in the early morning hours. Similarbehavior was observed for the concentration of ions between 04:00 and 05:00 HL (LocalTime) in Parnamirim. In Apodi the daily cycle of the concentration of Rn-222 showed apattern similar to Parnamirim, with a main maximum of 29.38 Bq /m3 and 24.00 Bq / m3 inthe dry and rainy seasons, respectively, around 17:00 HL and a secondary maximum at 15:00HL with 27.37 Bq / m3 (dry season) and 19.00 Bq / m3 (rainy season). These cycles areconsistent with situations of a statically neutral atmosphere due to the transition periods fromstable to unstable regimes (first peak) and unstable to stable (second peak) according to theBulk Richardson number also observed in this study.
4	ALINE GOMES DA SILVA ESTUDO SOBRE A PRECIPITAÇÃO SIMULADA NO OUTONO NA REGIÃO TROPICAL DA AMÉRICA DO SUL ATRAVÉS DE DOWNSCALING DINÂMICO E PREVISÃO POR CONJUNTO Study on simulated precipitation during autum in tropical region of South America through dynamical dowscaling and ensemble forecast Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : ALEXANDRE TORRES SILVA DOS SANTOS CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA DAVID MENDES MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES PAULO SERGIO LUCIO ROSMERI PORFIRIO ROCHA Data: Sep 16, 2016 Show Abstract This study presents an analysis of the performance of the method forecasting ensemble by Multiple Linear Regression Principal Component (RPC) to combine simulations with different configurations, performed with a regional climate model (downscaling dynamic technique) in order to simulate rainfall on tropical portion of South America. The analysis focused on two sub-regions of Brazil: Northeast Brazil (NEB) and Amazon (AMZ). The regional model used in the simulations was the RegCM4, forced by ERA-Interim data produced by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). They analyzed 18 autumns austral (1991 until 2008). For the composition of a prediction ensemble, were used for training period 2/3 and 1/3 for validation, as holdout technique. The results were compared to daily precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) and the average of the simulations (MA method), which is the method generally used for forecastingensemble. The RegCM4 model showed potential to predict rainfall over the tropical region of AS. Moreover, different parameterization of the model can be modified to make it more effective. However, the good performance of the model combined with the method of predictionensemble (RPC) increased accuracy compared to the MA method, with: less biased bias (average close to zero), while the MA method was biased (underestimated precipitation); greater capture the variability of GPCC data and moderate correlation with the GPCC data, while MA obtained weak correlation and greater mean square error. In addition, the reproduced PCR method with improved performance, the frequency of particular precipitation rates (0-5; 5-10; 10-15 and 15-20 mm/day) along the entire the period for both regions. Therefore, from the developed and implemented methodology yielded improvements in forecasting intensity of daily rainfall over the tropical region of South America.
5	ANDERSON LUIZ PINHEIRO DE OLIVEIRA GRAVITY WAVE STUDY IN THE EQUATORIAL STRATOSPHERE OVER THE SOUTH AMERICAN SECTOR OF LATITUDES Advisor : GILVAN LUIZ BORBA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : GILVAN LUIZ BORBA DAVID MENDES LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE CARLOS ALEXANDRE BARROS DE ALMEIDA RAFAEL CASTELO GUEDES MARTINS Data: Dec 20, 2016 Show Abstract Atmospheric disturbances generated by gravity waves exhibiting quasi-periodic characteristics have been intensively studied in recent decades. However, only a few of these studies refers to equatorial atmosphere above the South American sector latitudes. In this work we discuss results concerning the study of gravity waves signatures in the temperature profile of the equatorial stratosphere, in a height range of 16 – 30 km from radiosonde installed in weather balloons routinely launched by the Meteorological Station located in Launching Center of Barreira do Inferno (CLBI), in the metropolitan region of Natal/RN, (5.8°S; 35.5°W), during the year 2000. The objective of this research was to study the characteristics of the disturbances, the temperature profile of the stratosphere, which could be attributed to passing gravity waves that layer. Thus, the data obtained by radiosonde were compared with the theoretical data generated from the MSIS-90 semi-empirical model and, therefore, from the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) was possible to determine the angular frequency of disturbance and comparable them with the fundamental frequency of oscillation of the neutral atmosphere, or the Brunt-Väisälä frequency. In addition, the density profile of potential energy was calculated and the results were compared of the classical theory of linear gravity waves, it is estimated that the overall energy associated to wave whose dissipation occurs in the average atmosphere. During the study period, the year 2000, the CLBI Meteorological Station held a total of 185 daytime surveys, all around 12 hours (UT). After analysis of these surveys were detected 29 cases in which it was observed almost periodic disturbances with periods, angular frequency and vertical wavelengths compatible with gravity waves. The periods have found in the range 5.7 – 26.0 minutes, vertical wavelengths was in the range of 1.0 – 3.0 km, the angular frequencies of the order of 10-3 rad/s and associated energy density to order waves was in the range 0.5 to 9.0 J/kg.

2015

	Dissertations
1	HELDER JOSÉ FARIAS DA SILVA ANÁLISE DE TENDÊNCIA E CARACTERIZAÇÃO SAZONAL E INTERANUAL DA EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO PARA O ESTADO DO ACRE – BRASIL Advisor : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO COMMITTEE MEMBERS : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES JOSEMIR ARAÚJO NEVES Data: Mar 13, 2015 Show Abstract Esta pesquisa se propôs a investigar aspectos climatológicos (caracterização) mensais, sazonais, anuais e interdecadais da Evapotranspiração potencial para o estado do Acre a fim de compreender melhor sua variabilidade temporal e espacial e identificar possíveis tendências na região, tendo como unidades de estudos os municípios de Rio Branco, capital do Estado, Tarauacá e Cruzeiro do Sul, considerando um período de 35 anos: 1980 a 2014, a partir de dados mensais de estações meteorológicas de superfície do Instituto de Nacional de Meteorologia. Como metodologia adotou-se realizar, primeiramente, a consistência dos dados meteorológicos desta forma foi feito o preenchimento de falhas através da imputação de dados na série temporal por meio da imputação multivariada, na seqüência foram realizados testes estatísticos de homogeneidade, de tendência (Mann-kendall) e do estimador de Sen's (magnitude), assim como os testes de t-student e Mann-Whitney para identificar a partir de que ano a tendência passou a ser significativa. E por fim, a técnica de Análise de Variância - ANOVA foi adotada a fim de verificar se há diferença significativa nas médias anuais da evapotranspiração entre as localidades. O método indireto de Penmann-Montheith foi utilizado para o cálculo da Evapotranspiração potencial. Os resultados deste trabalho, permitiram concluir que a média anual da ETp é de 3,78, 2,90 e 2,80 mm dia ano-1, para Rio Branco, Tarauacá e Cruzeiro do Sul, respectivamente. Apresentando sinal sazonal bastante marcante com um mínimo em junho e um máximo em outubro. Pela ANOVA foi verificada que as médias entre as localidades diferem estatisticamente para um nível de significância de 1%. A década de 2000 foi a que apresentou os anos com maiores valores de evapotranspiração, associados à fase fria da ODP, e a década de 80 os de menores, associada à fase quente da ODP, para as três localidades. Mediante análise do teste de Mann-kendall, verificou-se tendência de elevação de 0,10 mm/década, aproximadamente, na evapotranspiração potencial na escala anual e sazonal, com exceção do verão na localidade de Cruzeiro do Sul. Esta tendência tronou-se estatisticamente significativa a partir dos anos: 2000, 1996 e 1988/90 para as localidades de Rio Branco, Tarauacá e Cruzeiro do Sul, respectivamente. Para análise de tendência dos parâmetros meteorológicos que condicionam a ETp foi observado tendência positivo/negativa em nível de 5% de significância, com exceção do Déficit de Pressão de Vapor que não apresentou incremento/declínio nas escalas anual ou sazonal.
2	JORIO BEZERRA CABRAL JUNIOR ESTIMATIVAS, VARIABILIDADE E ANÁLISE DE TENDÊNCIA DA EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIA, EM PERÍMETROS IRRIGADOS, NO SEMIÁRIDO DO NORDESTE BRASILEIRO Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES CARLOS ANTONIO COSTA DOS SANTOS HERMES ALVES DE ALMEIDA Data: Jun 29, 2015 Show Abstract A variabilidade/mudança climática tem gerado grandes preocupações em nível mundial, sendo uma das grandes questões o aquecimento global, que pode está afetando a disponibilidade dos recursos hídricos em perímetros irrigados. No semiárido do Nordeste brasileiro sabe-se que há predominância de déficit hídrico, porém pouco se conhece sobre tendências em séries climatológicas da perda conjunta de água por evaporação e transpiração (evapotranspiração). Por isso, neste trabalho procurou-se analisar se há indícios de aumento e/ou diminuição no regime da evapotranspiração de referência (ETo), nas escalas mensal, anual e interdecadal no polo irrigado das localidades de Juazeiro, BA (9°24’S; 40°26’W e 375,5m) e Petrolina, PE (09°09’S, 40°22’W e 376m), sendo essa análise o objetivo principal. De posse dos dados meteorológicos diários, disponibilizados pela EMBRAPA Semiárido, no período de 01.01.1976 a 31.12.2014, estimou-se a ETo diária utilizando-se o método padrão de Penman-Monteith (EToPM) parametrizado por Smith (1991). Outros métodos de estimativas mais simplificados foram calculados e comparados à EToPM, sendo: Radiação Solar (EToRS), Linacre (EToL), Hargreaves e Samani (EToHS) e o método do Tanque Classe A (EToTCA). As principais análises estatísticas foram os testes não paramétricos de homogeneidade (Run), de tendência (Mann-kendall), magnitude da tendência (Sen) e detecção de início da tendência (Mann-Whitney), a significância estatística adotada foi de 5 e/ou 1%. A técnica de Análise de Variância - ANOVA foi aplicada para averiguar se há diferença significativa nas médias interdecadais. Para efeitos comparativos entre os métodos de ETo, foram utilizados a correlação (r), o teste t-student e Tukey aos níveis de 5% de significância. E por fim, as estatísticas de Willmott et al. (1985) foi utilizada para avaliar o índice de concordância e de desempenho dos métodos simplificados comparados ao método padrão. Obteve-se como principais resultados que houve diminuição na série temporal da EToPM nos perímetros irrigados de Juazeiro, BA e Petrolina, PE, significativos respectivamente a 1 e 5%, com uma magnitude anual de -14,5 mm (Juazeiro) e -7,7 mm (Petrolina) e início da tendência em 1996. Os métodos de melhor concordância com a EToPM foi a EToRS com desempenho muito bom, nas duas localidades, seguido pelo método da EToL com desempenho bom (Juazeiro) e mediano (Petrolina). A EToHS obteve o pior desempenho (péssimo), para as duas localidades. É sugerido neste que a diminuição da EToPM pode está associado ao aumento das áreas agrícolas irrigadas e da construção do lago de Sobradinho à montante dos perímetros.
3	JOSÉ PEDRO DA SILVA JÚNIOR DESENVOLVIMENTO DE UM MAGNETÔMETRO FLUXGATE PARA ESTUDOS DE CLIMA ESPACIAL E AEROESPACIAL Advisor : JOSE HUMBERTO DE ARAUJO COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DAVID MENDES JOSE HUMBERTO DE ARAUJO NEDNALDO DANTAS DOS SANTOS Data: Jul 30, 2015 Show Abstract Neste trabalho foi desenvolvido um magnetômetro, em que toda a etapa de conversão de sinais e aquisição de dados foi realizada por software, constituída unicamente de um sensor de fluxo saturado, comercial. O magnetômetro possui alta sensibilidade para medir campos magnéticos de baixa intensidade, estático ou de pequenas variações. Esse tipo de sensor funciona a partir da saturação de um material ferromagnético utilizado como núcleo. Foram elaborados dois programas. O primeiro em linguagem Labview, esse faz a comunicação entre o sensor e o usuário através de um computador, o aplicativo produzido é responsável pela obtenção e armazenamento dos dados referentes ao sinal de saída do sensor. O segundo programa feito em linguagem Java é incumbido pela conversão dos dados para assim estudá-los, além de armazená-los em vários formatos e construir gráficos. Os resultados obtidos são de grande importância para estudos do comportamento do campo geomagnético, pois as variações de fluxo magnético podem induzir correntes elétricas na superfície e assim afetar a distribuição de energia elétrica e também os sistemas de telecomunicações. Mostrou-se que é possível, com este magnetômetro, estudar as variações de campos em tempestades magnéticas e em períodos considerados calmos.
4	ABIMAEL XAVIER BARBOSA AMARO ESTUDO SOBRE A RELAÇÃO ENTRE ATIVIDADES GEOMAGNÉTICAS E CINTILAÇÕES DE SINAIS DE GPS EM NATAL-RN (BRASIL) Advisor : ENIVALDO BONELLI COMMITTEE MEMBERS : ENIVALDO BONELLI GILVAN LUIZ BORBA JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ RICARDO ARLEN BURITI DA COSTA Data: Jul 31, 2015 Show Abstract Criado no início da década de setenta, o Sistema de Posicionamento Global (GPS) chega aosmeados da segunda década do século 21 com sua popularização através de softwares que podemser facilmente utilizados em aparelhos celulares e em painéis de automóveis. Além disso, anavegação aérea brasileira utiliza tal sistema de satélites como um de seus meios de orientação.Tais fatos tornam os problemas relacionados ao uso de serviços de localização por GPS emassuntos de interesse social. Dentre esses problemas estão as cintilações, que são súbitasmudanças na amplitude e/ou fase da onda eletromagnética que ocorrem quando esta atravessaregiões de irregularidades na densidade eletrônica da ionosfera, camada atmosférica situada entre50 Km e 2000 Km de altitude. Entre as causas da formação de tais irregularidades, conhecidascomo bolhas de plasma, há o acentuado crescimento do campo elétrico zonal durante as últimashoras da tarde devido ao efeito dínamo na camada F e à diminuição da condutividade elétrica nacamada E, criando, assim, o pico de pré-reversão com intenso aumento da deriva vertical doplasma ionosférico antes da sua inversão, quando a ionosfera desce, após o pôr do Sol,produzindo uma instabilidade, segundo o modelo de Rayleigh-Taylor. No Brasil, a ocorrênciadesse processo é mais intensa entre os meses de Setembro e Abril, de modo que as cintilaçõessão mais frequentes nesse período. Estudos tem relacionado o comportamento desse fenômenoeletromagnético na região brasileira com tempestades geomagnéticas por meio de modelos decampos elétricos perturbados nas proximidades do equador magnético. Este trabalho, então,visando identificar a relação entre cintilações de GPS em Natal-RN (Brasil) e perturbaçõesgeomagnéticas de quaisquer intensidades e variações, fez analises do comportamento ionosféricoe das variações do índice Dst (Disturbance storm time) concernente a épocas distintas do ciclosolar do período entre os anos de 2000 e 2014. Parte dos dados desta pesquisa se originou noobservatório da UFRN, a partir de uma placa GEC Plessey ligada a uma antena ANP –C 1143modificada pelo grupo Cornell University’s Space Plasma Physics de modo a operar o ScintMon,um programa de monitoramento de GPS. Neste estudo, portanto, foram constatados vários casosde cintilações inibidas após a fase principal de tempestades magnéticas, fato que, juntamente comoutros, corroboraram com a categorização de Aarons (1991) e com os modelos de dínamopertubado (de acordo com Bonelli, 2008) e de penetração over-shielding, defendido por Kelley etal. (1979) e Abdu (2011) [4]. Além dessas constatações, foram notados diferentes aspectosmorfológicos em tais perturbações no sinal de GPS de acordo com atividades magnéticasprecedentes. Também foi constatada uma relação moderada entre a taxa de variação do Dst (dehorário específico) e o S4 médio do sinal noturno, por meio de uma função polinomial. Talconstatação, portanto, corroborando com Ilma et al. (2012) [17], é uma importante evidência deque as cintilações de GPS não são diretamente controladas por indução magnética detempestades. Ao concluir este trabalho, essa relação também se mostrou como um meio deprevisão parcial de cintilações.
5	LIDIA GABRIELA RODRIGUES DE SOUZA Estudo da variabilidade da precipitação das capitais do Nordeste do Brasil por meio de Transformada Wavelet. Advisor : JOAO MEDEIROS DE ARAUJO COMMITTEE MEMBERS : JOAO MEDEIROS DE ARAUJO CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA JOSEMIR ARAÚJO NEVES Data: Aug 17, 2015 Show Abstract O estudo sobre o clima vem crescendo constantemente no decorrer dos últimos anos e a precipitação é uma das variáveis em destaque para essa finalidade. Neste estudo levando em consideração as dimensões territoriais e as distinções físico-climáticas existentes entre os estados do Nordeste Brasileiro (NEB), objetiva-se estudar as oscilações da precipitação no NEB, no período de 1961 a 2010, tendo como referência as médias mensais das capitais da região. Para tanto, inicialmente foi feita a descrição dos principais sistemas meteorológicos geradores de chuva na região e em seguida a análise dos dados com o auxílio da estatística descritiva, assim como a divisão dos nove estados em três grupos homogêneos com o auxilio de cluster, por meio de K-Means e a Análise dos Componentes Principais, para assim poder observar as séries temporais. Partindo dessas questões, fez-se uso da Transformada Wavelet (TW), a qual se apresenta como ferramenta eficaz na obtenção da variabilidade periódica num dado recorte temporal dos elementos meteorológicos, visando detectar alterações no padrão da precipitação. Os resultados são apresentados a partir das TW, a fim de visualizar as oscilações. Tais resultados possuem importância nos estudos climáticos, pois são obtidos por meio de um método que se utiliza de representações de tempo e frequência de forma simultânea e precisa, permitindo a análise de qualquer serie temporal.
6	CLEITON CRUZ SERAFIM ESTUDO DA VARIABILIDADE DA VELOCIDADE DE DERIVA VERTICAL DO PLASMA IONOSFÉRICO SOBRE A REGIÃO DE NATAL/RN, FORTALEZA/CE E CACHOEIRA PAULISTA/SP NOS PERÍODOS DE TEMPESTADES MAGNÉTICAS PARA O MÁXIMO SOLAR 2000. Advisor : GILVAN LUIZ BORBA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DAVID MENDES GILVAN LUIZ BORBA JOÃO GUALBERTO DE CERQUEIRA JÚNIOR Data: Aug 18, 2015 Show Abstract Neste trabalho, estão sendo apresentados os resultados da investigação sobre a variação da velocidade do pico de pré-reversão de deriva vertical do plasma ionosférico que comumente ocorre nos períodos próximos ao pôr-do-sol (entre 21UT – 22UT) para os municípios de Natal/RN (33.7º O, 5.6º S), Fortaleza/CE (38.45º O, 3.9º S) e Cachoeira Paulista/SP (45.0ºO, 22.7º S). Os dados (ionogramas) de altura virtual () em função da frequência emitida para a região Fda ionosfera foram obtidos junto ao Centro de Lançamento da Barreira do Inferno – CLBI, localizado em Natal, ainda se obteve dados junto às cidades de Fortaleza e cachoeira Paulista. Esses dados foram coletados por meio da ionossonda tipo CADI (Canadian Advanced Digital Ionosonde) para as cidades de Natal e Fortaleza, e pela digissonda DPS para a cidade de Cachoeira Paulista. Foram considerados apenas os dados de 2000, ano de solar máximo, para os meses com tempestades magnéticas e para períodos calmos. Para identificação dos períodos com tempestades magnéticas e períodos calmos utilizou-se o índice Dst (Disturbance Storm Time) que pode ser obtido a partir do seguinte endereço: http://lasp.colorado.edu/space_weather/dsttemerin/archive/dst_years.html, bem como também se utilizou o índice Kp. A partir dos dados foi possível reduzir os parâmetros ionosféricos desejados para as alturas virtuais de 5 e 6MHz utilizando o programa ionocadi para as cidades de Natal e Fortaleza, e para Cachoeira Paulista utilizou-se do software SAO-Explorer para obter as alturas reais. Com os dados de alturas virtuais () e reais reduzidos para as respectivas frequências anteriormente citadas, o passo seguinte foi o cálculo do , que se deu por meio da média entre as velocidades para as frequências de 5 e 6MHz para as respectivas cidades estudadas nesse trabalho. Com resultados para a velocidade de deriva vertical da região F ionosférica pode-se verificar as influências das tempestades magnéticas nos resultados, como exemplo, podemos citar a penetração de campos elétricos, bem como também campos elétricos do dínamo perturbado.
7	LAYARA CAMPELO DOS REIS AGRONEGÓCIO E VARIABILIDADE CLIMÁTICA: UM ESTUDO CLIMATOLÓGICO E SUA INFLUÊNCIA SOBRE A PRODUTIVIDADE DA SOJA NO MUNICÍPIO DE BOM JESUS (PI) Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES DANIELLE BARROS FERREIRA Data: Nov 13, 2015 Show Abstract Nos últimos anos o município de Bom Jesus (PI) passou a figurar como uma região de grande potencial para produção de soja (Glycine max (L.) Merrill) em larga escala. Esta cultura agrícola ganha espaço nos cerrados bonjesuenses apresentando, no decorrer dos anos, crescimento exponencial de áreas cultivadas. Entretanto, a produtividade não acompanha esse mesmo ritmo de crescimento, passando por períodos de oscilações, ainda que exista disponível um grande suporte de tecnologias, materiais genéticos de maior potencial produtivo, uso de técnicas de manejo e correção do solo e da crescente qualificação dos produtores rurais. Portanto, no presente estudo, considerou-se que as condições climáticas exercem uma ação limitante às máximas produtividades de soja neste município. Diante desse contexto, a pesquisa visa analisar possíveis tendências em variáveis meteorológicas que possam influenciar na produtividade da soja no município de Bom Jesus. Para tanto utilizaram-se diferentes conjuntos de dados meteorológicos: i) dados diários de dois períodos (1984-2014) e (1974-2014), ambos obtidos a partir do banco de dados do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET); ii) Normais Climatológicas do Brasil de 1961-1990 do INMET; iii) dados de produção agrícola municipal da cultura da soja dos anos/safras de 1997/1998 a 2012/2013 obtidos no banco de dados de Produção Agrícola Municipal (PAM) do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Nas análises foram realizados cálculos para o cômputo das Normais Climatológicas (1984-2014) e aplicações estatísticas. Dentre os métodos estatísticos foram realizados: i) o teste de Wilcoxon – pareado para avaliar as diferenças entre as climatologias dos períodos de 1961-90 e 1984-14; ii) o teste de tendência (Mann-Kendall), no intuito de analisar a tendência de variação dos dados agrometeorológicos (precipitação, temperatura máxima, temperatura mínima e amplitude diurna da temperatura – DTR); iii) análise multivariada (análise de Cluster) pelo método de Ward e o teste de correlação de Spearman (rs), para identificar a relação entre os dados agrometeorológicos e dados de variabilidade anual da produtividade da soja. Para a aplicação dos testes o estudo adotou nível de significância estatística de 5%. Os resultados apresentados indicam que a sazonalidade da climatologia de 1984-2014 apresentou mudanças com relação à climatologia passada em todas as variáveis analisadas, exceto na insolação e na precipitação. Quanto à variabilidade dos elementos agrometeorológicos, observaram-se tendência negativa significativa para a precipitação no mês de outubro e positiva significativa no mês de dezembro, as quais constatam alterações nos padrões do clima local, demonstrado pelo atraso da retomada do período chuvoso, que poderá ser considerado na condução de medidas de planejamento para a definição da época de semeadura do cultivo da soja. Foi possível identificar também tendências positivas com significâncias estatísticas, na temperatura máxima, para todos os meses que fazem parte do ciclo da soja (novembro - abril), que por sua vez tenderá a provocar efeitos adversos sobre a fisiologia da cultura, e consequentemente impactos no rendimento final. Notou-se uma correlação positiva significativa entre a produtividade de soja e a precipitação no mês de março, apontando que períodos de estiagens neste mês são prejudiciais para o desenvolvimento da cultura da soja. Quanto à correlação entre as variáveis (temperatura máxima, mínima e DTR) e a variabilidade anual da produtividade da soja, o resultado do teste não mostrou correlação com significância estatística para o período analisado, visto que considerando a faixa recomendada para o desenvolvimento do cultivo, estas variáveis climáticas não são fatores limitantes na produtividade final da soja no município de Bom Jesus (PI). Assim, espera-se que este estudo possa contribuir para a proposição de medidas estratégias de planejamento, que levam em conta o papel da variabilidade climática sobre a produtividade final da cultura da soja.
8	MAURÍCIO LIMA DE ALCÂNTARA UM ESTUDO SOBRE A INFLUÊNCIA DO CICLO SOLAR NOS FATORES CLIMATOLÓGICOS DE NATAL - RN Advisor : GILVAN LUIZ BORBA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : GILVAN LUIZ BORBA DAVID MENDES MARIO PEREIRA DA SILVA NEDNALDO DANTAS DOS SANTOS Data: Nov 27, 2015 Show Abstract Resumo Compreender mudanças climáticas é um assunto de extrema importância e tem estimulado inúmeras pesquisas. Grande parte do aumento observado na temperatura da superfície global sobre os últimos anos ocorreu antes de 1940 e depois de 1980. As principais causas relacionadas são a variabilidade solar, mudanças na atmosfera, conteúdo de gás de efeito estufa ou enxofre devido à ação natural ou antrópica, ou variabilidade interna do sistema oceano-atmosfera. O magnetismo e as tempestades magnéticas têm sido raramente citados, e as evidências para conexões entre clima e estes eventos têm recebido pouca atenção. Relatos indicam que pode exister uma correlação entre mudanças na amplitude das variações geomagnéticas de origem externa, radiação solar e da temperatura global. Estes parecem se correlacionar com eventos climáticos significativos na região do Atlântico Norte. O mecanismo proposto envolve as variações da geometria do campo, o que resulta num aumento de raios cósmicos a nucleação induzida de nuvens. Aquisição de dados sobre eventos pouco elucidados são necessários para investigar mais indicações de que os campos magnéticos do Sol e da Terra podem ter influência significativa sobre a mudança climática em determinadas escalas de tempo. As correlações da atividade solar com o clima foram investigadas em regiões de baixas latitudes da América do Sul. Em algumas regiões da Terra, os ciclos de 11 e 22 anos correlacionam, por exemplo, com a variação dos níveis de chuvas. O mecanismo responsável por esta correlação ainda não é conhecido.
	Thesis
1	NAURINETE DE JESUS DA COSTA BARRETO Estudo da Variabilidade Intrassazonal do Brasil Tropical no cenário de Mudanças Climáticas. Advisor : DAVID MENDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DAVID MENDES EVERALDO BARREIROS DE SOUZA JOSÉ MARIA BRABO ALVES MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES PAULO SERGIO LUCIO Data: Feb 6, 2015 Show Abstract A variabilidade intrassazonal é uma importante componente do sistema climático da Terra, apresenta interação com diversos fenômenos meteorológicos, sendo um elo entre os sistemas de tempo e clima, tornando-se uma ferramenta essencial para previsão e projeção do clima. O objetivo principal deste trabalho é avaliar o comportamento intrassazonal da precipitação sobre o Brasil Tropical e possíveis alterações ocasionadas nos cenários de simulação climática: “Historical” que representa o clima atual (1979 -2005) e “RCP8.5” representando as projeções de mudanças climáticas com o aumento da forçante radioativa da atmosférica em 8,5 W/m² para o período de 2070 até 2100. Entre os resultados obtidos estão: na primeira etapa à elaboração de um índice multivariado intrassazonal para o Brasil Tropical, por meio da aplicação da análise de máxima covariância, associada à projeção dos modos dominantes em eixos ortogonais. Desta forma é possível caracterizar os padrões resultantes em oitos fases, cujas composições representam a evolução da intrassazonalidade sobre a região de estudo. Na segunda Etapa foi realizada uma avaliação da sensibilidade dos modelos do “Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5”(CMIP5) à variabilidade semanal de precipitação durante os meses de verão e outono austal, dos dezesseis modelos avaliados, observou-se que apenas seis foram capazes de representar de forma significativa o padrão de precipitação, e dentre estes o modelo MRI-CGCM3 foi o que obteve o melhor resultado. A terceira e ultima etapa consistiu na aplicação da metodologia empregada na etapa 1 no modelo que melhor representou o padrão de precipitação, encontrado na Etapa 2, ou seja no MRI-CGCM3, num contexto geral notou-se que este modelo é capaz de representar bem o padrão de variabilidade espacial e ciclo evolutivo, entretanto do ponto de vista regional, ainda há necessidade de melhorias na representatividade dos sistemas.
2	ELIANE BARBOSA SANTOS MODELAGEM ESTATÍSTICA E ATRIBUIÇÕES DOS EVENTOS DE PRECIPITAÇÃO EXTREMA NA AMAZÔNIA BRASILEIRA. Advisor : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO COMMITTEE MEMBERS : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA FRANCISCO ALEXANDRE DA COSTA KELLEN CARLA LIMA CAIO AUGUSTO DOS SANTOS COELHO MARIA ASSUNÇÃO FAUS DA SILVA DIAS Data: Feb 24, 2015 Show Abstract Os Eventos de Precipitação Intensa (EPI) vêm causando grandes prejuízos sociais e econômicos às regiões atingidas. Na Amazônia, esses eventos podem acarretar consequências negativas principalmente aos núcleos de ocupação populacional nas margens dos seus inúmeros rios, pois quando há elevação do nível dos rios, em geral, têm-se inundações e enchentes. Neste sentido, o objetivo principal desta pesquisa é estudar os EPI, com aplicação da Teoria dos Valores Extremos (TVE), para estimar o período de retorno desses eventos e identificar as regiões da Amazônia Brasileira com ocorrências mais graves. Para tanto, foram utilizados os dados diários de precipitação da rede hidrometeorológica gerenciada pela Agência Nacional de Água e do Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, para o período de 1983 a 2012. Primeiramente, regiões homogêneas de precipitação foram determinadas, através da análise de agrupamento, utilizando o método hierárquico aglomerativo de Ward. Em seguida, séries sintéticas para representar as regiões homogêneas foram criadas e aplicadas na TVE, através da Distribuição Generalizada de Valores Extremos (Generalized Extreme Value - GEV) e da Distribuição Generalizada de Pareto (Generalized Pareto Distribution - GPD). A qualidade do ajuste dessas distribuições foi avaliada pela aplicação do teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov, que compara as distribuições empíricas acumuladas com as teóricas. E, por último a técnica de composição foi utilizada, para caracterizar os padrões atmosféricos dominantes na ocorrência dos EPI. Os resultados sugerem que a Amazônia Brasileira possui seis regiões pluviometricamente homogêneas. Espera-se que as ocorrências mais graves dos EPI ocorram nas sub-regiões do sul e litoral da Amazônia. Os eventos mais intensos são esperados durante o período chuvoso ou de transição, com total diário de 146.1, 143.1 e 109.4 mm (GEV) e 201.6, 209.5 e 152.4 mm (GPD), ao menos uma vez ao ano, no sul, litoral e noroeste da Amazônia Brasileira, respectivamente. Na análise sinótica, no sul da Amazônia, os campos de composição mostraram uma configuração favorável a formação da Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul. No litoral, os eventos de precipitação intensa devem estar associados com sistemas de meso escalas, como as Linhas de Instabilidade. E, no noroeste, são aparentemente associados à Zona de Convergência Intertropical e/ou à convecção local.
3	ANA CARLA DOS SANTOS GOMES TRÊS ALTERNATIVAS ESTOCÁSTICAS PARA MODELAR MORBIMORTALIDADE POR DOENÇAS RESPIRATÓRIAS E CARDIOVASCULARES VIA VARIÁVEIS ATMOSFÉRICAS Advisor : MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN PAULO SERGIO LUCIO ADRIANA GIODA IDEMAURO ANTONIO RODRIGUES DE LARA Data: Mar 6, 2015 Show Abstract O clima e a poluição do ar, dentre outros, são fatores responsáveis pelo aumento da vulnerabilidade da saúde das populações residentes nos grandes centros urbanos. Alterações climáticas combinadas a altas concentrações de poluentes atmosféricos estão associadas a doenças respiratórias e cardiovasculares. Neste sentido, o objetivo principal da pesquisa é modelar de diferentes formas a relação clima e saúde, especificamente para a população de crianças e idosos residentes em São Paulo. Para tanto, foram utilizados dados de variáveis meteorológicas, poluentes atmosféricos, internações e óbitos por doenças respiratórias e cardiovasculares no período de 10 anos (2000 a 2010). Por intermédio da modelagem via equações de estimação generalizadas, captou-se o risco relativo. Com a regressão dinâmica, foi possível prever o número de óbitos por meio das variáveis atmosféricas e o modelo beta-binomial-poisson foi capaz de estimar o número de óbitos e simular cenários. Os resultados mostraram que o risco das internações por asma aumenta aproximadamente duas vezes para crianças expostas às concentrações do material particulado do que crianças que não são expostas. O risco de morte por infarto agudo do miocárdio de idosos aumenta em 3%, 6%, 4% e 9% devido ao CO, SO2, O3 e PM10, respectivamente. Com relação à modelagem via regressão dinâmica, os resultados mostraram que os óbitos por doenças respiratórias podem ser previstos de forma consistente. Já o modelo beta-binomial-poisson conseguiu retratar o número médio de óbitos por insuficiência cardíaca, na região de Santo Amaro o número observado foi de 2.462 e o simulado de 2.508, na região da Sé o observado foi de 4.308 e o simulado de 4.426, o que possibilitou a geração de cenários que possam servir como parâmetro para a análise destinada à tomada de decisão. A partir dos resultados obtidos, é possível contribuir com metodologias que possam auxiliar a compreensão da relação clima e saúde fornecendo subsídios aos gestores no planejamento de políticas de saúde pública e ambiental.
4	JOSÉ UELITON PINHEIRO VÓRTICES CICLÔNICOS DE AR SUPERIOR SOBRE O NORDESTE DO BRASIL E MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS: ANÁLISE PARA O CLIMA ATUAL E CENÁRIOS FUTUROS Advisor : ROSANE RODRIGUES CHAVES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DAVID MENDES FERNANDO MOREIRA DA SILVA JOSEMIR ARAÚJO NEVES JOSÉ MARIA BRABO ALVES ROSANE RODRIGUES CHAVES WERÔNICA MEIRA DE SOUZA Data: Mar 18, 2015 Show Abstract Neste trabalho foi estudado a saída de modelos de mudanças climáticas do IPCC/AR5/CMIP5 que melhor expressam a atuação dos Vórtices Ciclônicos em Altos Níveis (VCANs) no Nordeste Brasileiro (NEB), no clima atual e cenários futuros, como também sua influência na precipitação. Para alcançar os objetivos propostos na Tese foram feitos quatro ESTUDOS EXPERIMENTAIS. O primeiro, denominado de Piloto, onde estudou-se 13 modelos de mudanças climáticas para avaliar e selecionar o modelo que melhor expressava a atuação dos VCANs no NEB. O segundo onde, uma vez selecionado o melhor modelo, o MIROC4h, avaliou a eficiência desse modelo comparando com dados de reanálise para um período de 31 anos (1975-2005). O terceiro onde foram analisados os cenários climáticos futuros do MIROC4h para o período de 21 anos (2015-2035). E o quarto onde foi analisado a contribuição dos VCANs na precipitação sobre o NEB através dos dados de reanálise do NCEP/NCAR/DOE. Foram utilizadas duas abordagens estatísticas comparativas nos Estudos Experimentais 1 e 2, a primeira utilizando o Número de Dias de Atuação de VCANs (N.D.A.VCANs) mensais e a segunda usando o comparativo da atuação de VCANs diário, com a utilização dos índices estatísticos: correlações de Pearson, Kendall e Spearman, Raiz quadrada do erro quadrático médio (RMSE), Raiz quadrada do erro quadrático médio normalizada (NRMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE), Kling-Gupta (KGE), Índice de Concordância de Willmott (d), Índice de Proporção Correta (PC), Índice de Sucesso Crítico (ISC), Probabilidade de Detecção (POD), Taxa de alarme Falso (TAF) e Taxa de Tendência (VIÉS). E nos Experimentos 3 e 4 foram calculados desvios e médias. Os resultados mostraram a viabilidade na representação dos VCANs nos modelos de mudanças climáticas do CMIP5, seja para o clima atual como nos cenários futuros. Com relação a contribuição dos VCANs para a precipitação do NEB estes apresentam percentuais que variam de 47,88% (LNE) a 49,89%(NNE) para o período de outubro a março. Sendo que Ceará (49,89%), Piauí (49,49%) e Maranhão (47,88%) são os Estados onde os VCANs induzem mais precipitação e Alagoas (41,93%) e Sergipe (38,03%) os Estados onde os VCANs induzem menos precipitação. A projeção de cenário futuro para os VCANs revelaram um desvio negativo 8,97% na ocorrência deste fenômeno no NEB e áreas adjacentes para o período de 2015 a 2035. O que poderá impactar em -4,08% a precipitação do NEB neste período.
5	FRANCISCO RAIMUNDO DA SILVA Estudo do desenvolvimento da Camada Limite Convectiva no semiárido brasileiro Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA ARTHUR MATTOS BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA NEUSA MARIA PAES LEME JOSÉ FIDELES FILHO RÔMULO DA SILVEIRA PAZ Data: Jun 2, 2015 Show Abstract Objetivo desta tese foi estudar experimentalmente o comportamento termodinâmico da CamadaLimite Convectiva (CLC) durante a estação seca e chuvosa em uma região de clima semiárido donordeste brasileiro (NEB), com o uso de radiossondas nos dias 16, 17 e 18 de novembro de 2013(estação seca) e de 03 a 08 de abril de 2014 (estação chuvosa) no município de Apodi-RN e no2período chuvoso de 09 a 17 de abril de 2011 nos municípios de Mossoró-RN e Quixeramobim-CE. Foram lançados 15 balões (período seco) e 32 (chuvoso) em Apodi, 35 em Mossoró e 36 emQuixeramobim (chuvoso). Através das radiossondagens foram coletados dados do perfil depressão atmosférica, temperatura do ar, umidade relativa do ar, velocidade e direção do vento.Para os dados de superfície em Apodi, utilizou-se uma estação meteorológica de superfíciemodelo Vantage Pro 2 da Davis Company (EUA). Como procedimento de análise aplicou-se ométodo dos perfis na determinação da altura da CLC e se analisou três informações de cadaperfil: a média da camada, o valor na base e no topo. Aplicou-se o teste t-Student para avaliar adiferença estatística entre os dados por período e localidade. Em Apodi, a altura da CLC foiaproximadamente 850 m (estação seca) e 362 m (estação chuvosa), no início da manhã (05:00HL - Hora Local) e no final da tarde as 17:00 HL atingiu a altura máxima de 2500 m (seca) e1765 m (chuvosa), já a temperatura potencial mínima às 05:00 HL foi de 298 K (seco) e 297 K(chuvosa) atingindo a máxima de 306 K (seca) e 304 K (chuvosa) às 17:00 HL. Em Mossoró eQuixeramobim, a altura da CLC no período chuvoso, em média, atingiu 839,6 m e 965 menquanto que a temperatura potencial atingiu 301 K com um razão de mistura de 15,5 (g/kg) etemperatura potencial de 302 K com uma razão de mistura 16,6 g/kg respectivamente em ambosos sítios. Para os dados de superfície coletados em Apodi foram calculados as médias, máximos emínimos a cada 10 minutos durante 24 horas, também foi aplicado o teste t-Student, e seconstatou que algumas variáveis meteorológicas apresentaram diferenças estatísticassignificantes ao nível de 5%.
6	RÊNIO LEITE DE ANDRADE Dinâmica do microclima e fluxo de calor sensível armazenado no dossel vegetativo da caatinga no semiárido do Brasil. Advisor : FERNANDO MOREIRA DA SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : ARTHUR MATTOS FERNANDO MOREIRA DA SILVA GEORGE SANTOS MARINHO MARCOS AURELIO FERREIRA DOS SANTOS MÁRCIA REGINA FARIAS DA SILVA Data: Jun 3, 2015 Show Abstract No presente trabalho, utilizaram-se dados do Experimento Cariri coletados em região de caatinga nativa no município de São João do Cariri estado da Paraíba nas coordenadas de 7º22'45,1"S e 36º31'47,2"W com altitude de 458 m. As medidas microclimáticas foram realizadas em duas épocas, nos período de 01 a 13 de janeiro de 2002 (Período Chuvoso) e 07 a 19 de setembro de 2002 (Período Seco). O estudo microclimático envolveu a medição das seguintes variáveis meteorológicas: precipitação; saldo de radiação; radiação solar global; temperatura do ar no dossel vegetativo e fora do dossel vegetativo; fluxo de calor no solo vegetado e não vegetado e umidade relativa do ar. Foram comparadas as médias durante o período experimental através da análise de variância e estatística descritiva. O objetivo deste trabalho foi realizar a caracterização microclimática e comportamento do fluxo de calor sensível armazenado no dossel vegetativo. Os resultados referentes às variáveis estudadas durante o período experimental e submetidos à análise estatística revelaram efeitos significativos a 1% pelo teste F. O saldo de radiação médio foi superior durante o período seco quando comparado ao período chuvoso com média 163,20 Wm-2 e 44,26 Wm-2, respectivamente. No período noturno o saldo de radiação foi negativo enquanto que durante o dia foi positivo. A radiação solar global durante o período chuvoso foi menor do que no período seco com média de 208,27 Wm-2 e 265,49 Wm-2, respectivamente. A temperatura do ar dentro do dossel vegetativo são maiores que a temperatura do ar fora do dossel vegetativo em ambos os períodos estudados. O fluxo de calor no solo médio foi superior no solo não vegetado quando comparado ao solo vegetado com média no período chuvoso de 26,79 Wm-2 e 6,52 Wm-2, respectivamente em ambos os períodos estudados. E para o período seco apresentou-se média de 30,50 Wm-2 solo não vegetado e 3,88 Wm-2 solo vegetado. A umidade relativa do ar no período chuvoso foi maior do que no período seco com médias de 79,60% e 62,73%, respectivamente. O fluxo de calor sensível armazenado no dossel vegetativo não revelou efeito significativo a 5% entre o período seco e chuvoso pelo teste F, com média de -0,011 Wm-2 no período chuvoso e -0,017 Wm-2 no período seco. Houve efeitos significativos entre os períodos avaliados para as variáveis microclimáticas estudadas.
7	MAYTÊ DUARTE LEAL COUTINHO MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS SIMULADAS NAS COMPONENTES DO BALANÇO DE UMIDADE SOBRE A AMÉRICA DO SUL Advisor : KELLEN CARLA LIMA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : KELLEN CARLA LIMA CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA PAULO SERGIO LUCIO WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES GYRLENE APARECIDA MENDES DA SILVA TERCIO AMBRIZZI Data: Jun 18, 2015 Show Abstract No contexto de mudanças climáticas sobre a América do Sul (AS) tem-se observado que a combinação de altas temperaturas mais chuvas e altas temperaturas menos chuvas, provocam diferentes impactos como: eventos extremos de precipitação, condições favoráveis para queimadas e secas. Com isto, estas regiões enfrentam ameaça crescente de escassez de água, local ou generalizada. Assim, a disponibilidade de água no Brasil depende em grande parte, do clima e de suas variações em diversas escalas de tempo. Neste sentido, o objetivo principal desta pesquisa é estudar o balanço de umidade por meio de Regional Climate Models (RCM) do Project Regional Climate Change Assessments for La Plata Basin (CLARIS- LPB), assim como, combinar estes RCM por meio de duas técnicas estatísticas, na tentativa de melhorar a previsão sobre três áreas da AS: Amazônia (AMZ), Nordeste do Brasil (NEB) e Bacia do Prata (LPB) nos climas do passado (1961-1990) e do futuro (2071-2100). O transporte de umidade sobre AS foi investigado por meio do fluxo de umidade integrado verticalmente. Os principais resultados mostraram que os fluxos médios de vapor d’água nas regiões tropicais (AMZ e NEB) são maiores através das bordas leste e norte, assim indicando que as contribuições dos ventos alísios do Atlântico Norte e do Sul são igualmente importantes para a entrada de umidade durante os meses de JJA e DJF. Esta configuração foi observada em todos os modelos e climas. Na comparação dos climas verificou-se que a convergência do fluxo de umidade no clima passado foi menor em relação ao futuro em diferentes regiões e épocas. De forma semelhante, constatou-se que a precipitação foi reduzida no clima futuro nas regiões tropicais (AMZ e NEB), possivelmente devido os intensos fluxos de umidade que adentraram nas regiões. Por intermédio das técnicas de Regressão Múltipla por Componente Principal (C_RCP) e da combinação convexa (C_EQM), analisamos e comparamos as combinações dos modelos (ensemble). Os resultados indicaram que a combinação por RCP foi melhor em representar a precipitação observada em ambos os climas. Sendo que, além dos valores mostrarem ser próximos aos observados, a técnica obteve coeficiente de correlação de moderada à forte magnitude, em praticamente todos os meses nos diferentes climas e regiões. Além do mais, na avaliação das técnicas de combinação, a tendência percentual (PBIAS) mostrou que em geral, a C_RCP obteve valores de baixa magnitude (PBIAS = 0%) indicando ter um desempenho “muito bom” no clima passado e (PBIAS = -4% a 3%) para o clima futuro, sobre as regiões de estudo. Enquanto a C_EQM mostrou no clima passado, que a AMZ obteve um desempenho “bom” e nas regiões do NEB e LPB obtiveram desempenho de “bom a satisfatório”. Logo, os resultados mostraram que as técnicas tem um potencial promissor para aplicações operacionais em centro de previsão de tempo e clima.
8	MARIA DAS VITORIAS MEDEIROS DA MATA ESTIMATIVA DAS EMISSÕES DE DIÓXIDO DE CARBONOASSOCIADAS ÀS MUDANÇAS NO USO E COBERTURA DA TERRA DO BIOMA CAATINGA NO ESTADO DO RIO GRANDE DO NORTE. Advisor : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN COMMITTEE MEMBERS : JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN NEUSA MARIA PAES LEME ANDRE MEGALI AMADO ANA PAULA DUTRA DE AGUIAR JEAN PIERRE HENRY BALBAUD OMETTO RAMIRO GUSTAVO VALERA CAMACHO Data: Jun 18, 2015 Show Abstract Esta pesquisa apresenta as estimativas das taxas de emissões de CO2 por mudanças no uso e cobertura da terra (MUCT) no Bioma Caatinga do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte, que compreende uma área de aproximadamente 52.810km2.Como ferramenta foi utilizando o modelo de emissões INPE-EM (INPE- Emission Model) do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais. O principal objetivo desta pesquisa foi adaptar o modelo de emissões INPE-EM (INPE- Emission Model) para quantificar as emissões de CO2 por MUCT na região no período entre 2000 – 2010. Na adaptação do modelo, foram utilizados dados de desmatamento anuais entre 2000 e 2010, além de dados de biomassa e uma série de parâmetros disponíveis na literatura, como a porcentagem de biomassa acima e abaixo do solo removida, a porcentagem de biomassa acima do solo após o desmatamento que será queimada no primeiro ano, o ciclo de queimadas, o decaimento do corte, o número de anos para o abandono de uma área de agricultura, etc. Uma primeira base de dados entre 1900 e 1999 foi simulada para incluir as contribuições do passado nos cenários de emissões. Os resultados permitiram a geração de uma base de dados inédita das emissões de CO2 nessa região com resolução espacial de 5 km x 5 km. Esta base de dados servirá para outros estudos regionais/globais de balanço de carbono, contribuindo também para a melhoria de inventários de emissões da região. Este trabalho é de fundamental importância para a modelagem da geração, transporte e deposição de poluentes na química da atmosfera, tanto para estudos ambientais a curto prazo quanto para estudos climáticos. O estudo poderá servir para tomadas de decisões na política ambiental da região e para análises de impactos da ação antrópica no Bioma Caatinga.
9	CATI ELISA DE AVILA VALADÃO Impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Intraseasonal Precipitation over Northeast Brazil Advisor : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DAVID MENDES EVERALDO BARREIROS DE SOUZA JOSÉ MARIA BRABO ALVES PAULO SERGIO LUCIO ROSANE RODRIGUES CHAVES Data: Aug 14, 2015 Show Abstract Este estudo tem como objetivo investigar os impactos da oscilação de Madden–Julian (OMJ) na precipitação da região Nordeste do Brasil (NEB). Para tanto foram utilizados dados diários de precipitação baseados em 492 pluviômetros distribuídos na região e cobrindo um período de 30 anos (1981 − 2010). As análises através de composições de anomalias de precipitação, radiação de onda longa e fluxo de umidade, foram obtidas com base no índice da OMJ desenvolvido por Jones–Carvalho. Para distinguir o sinal da OMJ de outros padrões de variabilidade climática, todos os dados diários foram filtrados na escala de 20 − 90 dias; portanto somente dias classificados como eventos da OMJ foram considerados nas composições. Uma análise preliminar baseada apenas nos dados de precipitação foi feita para uma pequena área localizada no interior semiárido do NEB, conhecida como Seridó. Essa microrregião é uma das áreas mais secas do NEB e foi reconhecida pela Convenção das Nações Unidas para o Combate à Desertificação e Mitigação dos Efeitos das Secas como particularmente vulnerável à desertificação. Composições de anomalias de precipitação foram feitas para cada uma das oito fases da OMJ durante Fevereiro–Maio (principal período chuvoso da microrregião). Os resultados mostraram a existência de variações significativas nos padrões de precipitação (de precipitação excessiva à deficiente) associados à propagação da OMJ. A combinação dos sinais de precipitação obtidos durantes as fases úmidas e secas da OMJ mostrou que a diferença corresponde cerca de 50 − 150% de modulação das chuvas na microrregião. Em seguida, uma investigação abrangente sobre o papel da OMJ sobre toda a região Nordeste foi feita considerando-se as quatro estações do ano. Os resultados mostraram que os impactos da OMJ na precipitação intrassazonal do NEB apresentam forte sazonalidade. A maior coerência espacial dos sinais de precipitação ocorreram durante o verão austral, quando cerca de 80% das estações pluviométricas apresentaram anomalias positivas de precipitação durante as fases 1 − 2 da OMJ e anomalias negativas de precipitação nas fases 5 − 6 da oscilação. Embora impactos da OMJ na precipitação intrassazonal tenham sido encontrados na maioria das localidades e em todas as estações do ano, eles apresentaram variações na magnitude dos sinais e dependem da fase da oscilação. As anomalias de precipitação do NEB observadas são explicadas através da interação existente entre as ondas de Kelvin-Rossby acopladas convectivamente e as características climáticas predominantes sobre a região em cada estação do ano. O aumento de precipitação observado sobre a maior parte do NEB durante o verão e primavera austrais encontra-se associado com o fluxo de umidade de oeste (regime de oeste), o qual favorece a atividade convectiva em amplas áreas da América do Sul tropical. Por outro lado, as anomalias de precipitação durante o inverno e outono austrais apresentaram uma variabilidade espacial mais complexa. Durante estas estações, as anomalias de precipitação observadas nas estações localizadas na costa leste do NEB dependem da intensidade do anticiclone do Atlântico Sul, o qual é modulado em grande parte por ondas de Rossby. As características topográficas do NEB parecem desempenhar um papel importante na variabilidade observada na precipitação, principalmente nestas áreas costeiras. A intensificação do anticiclone aumenta a convergência dos ventos alísios na costa contribuindo para a ocorrência de precipitação observada à barlavento do planalto da Borborema. Por outro lado, o aumento da subsidência parece ser responsável pelos déficits de precipitação observados à sotavento. Tais condições mostraram-se típicas durante o predomínio do regime de leste sobre a região tropical da América do Sul e o NEB, durante o qual ocorre uma diminuição no fluxo de umidade proveniente da Amazônia.
10	THALYTA SOARES DOS SANTOS CÁLCULO DAS INCERTEZAS CLIMÁTICAS SOBRE AMÉRICA DO SUL UTILIZANDO MODELOS DO CMIP5: AFERIÇÃO ATRAVÉS DAS REDES NEURAIS ARTIFICIAIS Advisor : DAVID MENDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DAVID MENDES ENIO PEREIRA DE SOUZA MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES Data: Sep 30, 2015 Show Abstract Neste trabalho objetivamos analisar as incertezas envolvidas nas projeções de mudanças climáticas na América do Sul (AS) simuladas por inúmeros modelos numéricos de circulação geral acoplado oceano-atmosfera (MCGOA) da Quinta Fase do Projeto do Modelo Intercomparação Acoplado (CMIP5) para a América do Sul. As incertezas nas projeções das mudanças climáticas futuras surgem a partir de fontes diferentes e são introduzidos na sequência de passos no processo de modelação, produzindo assim uma cascata de incertezas (Knutti et al. de 2010;. Giorgi 2005). Essas incertezas projetadas pelos modelos climáticos serão calculadas através do método Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) desenvolvido por Giogi e Mearns (2002) que é utilizado para calcular o intervalo de incerteza e uma medida de confiabilidade das mudanças climáticas simuladas por um conjunto de diferentes modelos de circulação geral da atmosfera. O método leva em conta dois critérios de confiabilidade; i) o desempenho do modelo em reproduzir o clima atual e, ii) convergência das mudanças simuladas entre os modelos. O REA será aplicado para os séculos XX e XXI em diferentes cenários do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ou Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas). Em uma segunda fase, será aplicado também Redes Neurais Artificias (RNA) juntamente com o cálculo das incertezas, para avaliarmos se uso das RNA serão uma boa ferramenta para diminuir as incertezas geradas pelos modelos, melhorando assim a precisão dos mesmos. Assim sendo, com o estudo proposto espera-se avaliar e quantificar detalhadamente os intervalos de incerteza nas mudanças climáticas apresentadas no CMIP5 para a AS, com e sem a utilização de RNA, relacionadas ao uso de diferentes modelos numéricos e futuras emissões de gases de efeito estufa. Avaliando os níveis de incerteza, disponibilizaremos uma ferramenta muito útil para os estudos de impacto, adaptação e vulnerabilidade. Os resultados preliminares deste estudo mostraram que a variação REA para a precipitação é um pouco menor sobre a América Sul em comparação com a média simples conjunto de modelos. A confiabilidade do conjunto de modelos foi satisfatória para toda a América do Sul, indicando boa simulação dos modelos nessa região.
11	ALLAN RODRIGUES SILVA Energia eólica em alto mar: distribuição dos recursos e complementaridade hídrica Advisor : FELIPE MENDONCA PIMENTA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : FELIPE MENDONCA PIMENTA MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES VINICIO DE SOUZA E ALMEIDA ARCILAN TREVENZOLI ASSIREU ROSIBERTO SALUSTIANO DA SILVA JUNIOR Data: Dec 21, 2015 Show Abstract A estabilização da oferta de energia no Brasil tem sido um desafio para o planejamento do Sistema Interligado Nacional, diante das variações hidrológicas e climáticas. Termoelétricas são utilizadas como fonte emergencial no período de escassez hídrica. Porém a utilização de combustíveis fósseis tem elevado o custo de produção, da energia elétrica. Por outro lado, a energia eólica em alto mar (offshore) vem ganhando importância no cenário internacional, e tornando-se competitiva a ponto de tornar-se uma possibilidade futura de geração no Brasil. Nesse sentido, o objetivo principal desta tese foi investigar a magnitude e distribuição dos recursos eólicos offshore, verificando também possibilidades de complementaridade com a fonte hídrica. Para isto, foi utilizado uma série de dados de precipitação do Climatic Research Unit (CRU) e conjunto de dados satelitários de velocidade de vento do projeto Blended Sea Winds da National Climatic Data Center (NCDC/NOAA). De acordo com critérios estatísticos foi encontrado três tipos de complementaridade presentes no território brasileiro: hídrica hídrica, eólica eólica e hídrica eólica. Notou-se que houve complemento bastante significativo (r=-0,65) entre as fontes, hídrica e eólica, principalmente das bacias hidrográficas do sudeste e centro oeste com os ventos do Nordeste. Com intuito de refinar a extrapolação dos ventos sobre o oceano, foi utilizado método baseado na teoria de Monin-Obukhov para modelar a estabilidade da camada limite atmosférica. Foi utilizado o conjunto de dados de fluxos de calor, temperatura e umidade do Projeto Objectively Analized Air-Sea Flux (OAFLUX), além de dados de pressão ao nível do mar do projeto NCEP/NCAR e o modelo de relevo global ETOPO1 da National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC/NOAA). Verificou-se um bom recurso em águas rasas, entre 0-20 metros, estimados em 559 GW. A contribuição do recurso eólico em um reservatório, foi investigada com um modelo híbrido eólico-hidráulico simplificado que permitiu o cálculo do nível dos reservatórios a partir de dados de vazão afluente, defluente e produção de turbina. Notou-se que o sistema híbrido evita os períodos de estiagem, poupando continuamente água dos reservatórios através da produção eólica. Assim, a partir dos resultados obtidos, é possível afirmar que os bons ventos das costa brasileira podem, além de diversificar a matriz elétrica, estabilizar as flutuações hídricas evitando racionamentos e apagões, reduzindo o uso das térmicas que eleva o custo de produção e emite gases poluentes. Políticas públicas voltadas ao incentivo da energia eólica offshore serão necessárias para seu pleno desenvolvimento.

2014

	Dissertations
1	PATRÍCIA VIANA DE LIMA Uma análise de Métodos para Detecção de Mudanças na estrutura de Séries Climáticas. Advisor : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO COMMITTEE MEMBERS : HUMBERTO ALVES BARBOSA MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES MONICA CRISTINA DAMIÃO MENDES PAULO SERGIO LUCIO Data: Aug 15, 2014 Show Abstract O estudo de séries temporais tem desempenhado um papel cada vez mais importante em diversas áreas do conhecimento humano. Há um número cada vez maior de aplicações, desde as bolsas de valores, às ciências da vida e às ciências físicas, como a Meteorologia. Em particular, a análise de dados climáticos é de fundamental importância para questões relacionadas a tempo e clima. Uma série de dados climáticos é considerada homogênea quando as variações nos dados se devem somente a mudanças em clima e tempo. No entanto, na maioria das vezes esses dados podem não ser considerados confiáveis devido à falta de homogeneidade. Esta heterogeneidade é causada, geralmente, pela alteração na instrumentação, mudanças no local da estação ou mudanças no ambiente próximo. Quando não são detectadas mudanças nas séries devido a fatores como esses, as análises climáticas podem apresentar resultados errôneos. Nas últimas décadas, muitos pesquisadores estão envolvidos no desenvolvimento de métodos e técnicas para a identificação e ajuste dessas mudanças. Varias técnicas foram desenvolvidas para identificar mudanças na variabilidade, tamanho e integridade dos dados. Diante desse contexto, este trabalho tem o propósito de criar uma rotina automatizada, objetiva, reprodutível e de uso fácil para detecção e ajuste dessas mudanças.
2	ELIO PESSOA CAZUZA ESTUDOS DE DISTURBIOS IONOSFÉRICOS PROPAGANTES DE LARGA ESCALA (LSTID’S) NA REGIÃO EQUATORIAL DURANTE GRANDES TEMPESTADES MAGNÉTICAS Advisor : GILVAN LUIZ BORBA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : ENIVALDO BONELLI GILVAN LUIZ BORBA JONAS RODRIGUES DE SOUZA Data: Aug 28, 2014 Show Abstract Os distúrbios ionosféricos propagantes - TID’s - são irregularidades no plasma ionosférico propagando-se com velocidades da ordem de dezenas a poucas centenas de metros por segundo. O presente trabalho foi desenvolvido visando detectar e caracterizar os TID’s do tipo LSTID’s (Large scale Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances) em baixas latitudes durante intensas tempestades geomagnéticas e sua propagação sobre setor brasileiro. Para este fim utilizamos registros ionosféricos obtidos a partir de digissondas do tipo CADI (Canadian Advanced Digital Ionosonde) localizada em Nata e do tipo DSP localizadas em Cachoeira Paulista, Fortaleza e São Luiz, no qual utilizamos uma série de dados de 12 anos colhidos pelo INPE (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais). Neste estudo foram relacionados tanto dias calmos quanto, os quais antecediam as tempestades e dias geomagneticamente perturbados durante os anos de 2000 e 2012, os quais englobam um período de máxima e mínima atividade solar. Este trabalho apresenta as variações ocorridas nas densidades eletrônicas da região F da ionosfera sobre o setor brasileiro, principalmente próximo ao equador (Natal, Fortaleza e São Luís), causadas por distúrbios ionosféricos propagantes na região equatorial durante intensas tempestades geomagnéticas, pois como sabemos da literatura na área esse fenômeno contribui positivamente para o surgimento de LSTID’s na região auroral, mas que podem se deslocar para a região equatorial onde poucos casos têm sido documentados e estudados de forma sistematizada. A partir da observação de assinaturas de TID´s em registros de ionogramas foi realizado um estudo da morfologia desses eventos e comparados com as principais características de onda desse fenômeno durante grandes tempestades magnéticas, isto é DST < (-200 nT) e KP > 6. Com isso obtivemos as características principais dos TID´s sobre nossa região, isto é, período, comprimento de onda vertical, velocidade de fase e velocidade de propagação, assim como o delay desses distúrbios em relação ao início das tempestades magnéticas para o setor brasileiro.
3	ALESSANDRO DIONISIO DA SILVA Anemômetro Ultrassônico baseado em Sensor de Distância Advisor : CARLOS CHESMAN DE ARAUJO FEITOSA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CARLOS CHESMAN DE ARAUJO FEITOSA JOSE HUMBERTO DE ARAUJO ALEXANDRE BARBOSA DE OLIVEIRA CHARLIE SALVADOR GONCALVES Data: Sep 30, 2014 Show Abstract Neste trabalho é desenvolvido um estudo para verificar a utilização do sensor de distância ultrassônico na medida da velocidade do vento. O vento é uma variável meteorológica importante para o estudo da dinâmica da atmosfera, mudanças no clima e plantações agrícolas. Com isso se faz necessário avanços em estudos que possibilitem cada vez mais a caracterização do comportamento do vento. Atualmente existem diversos tipos de anemômetros para medir velocidade do vento, entre os quais se destaca o anemômetro ultrassônico devido à precisão nas medidas. Porém este dispositivo possui um alto custo dificultando a utilização do mesmo. Sendo assim buscamos baixar o custo do anemômetro ultrassônico, realizando um estudo a cerca da utilização do sensor de distância no desenvolvimento de um anemômetro ultrassônico. Neste tipo de anemômetro a velocidade do vento é aferida com base no tempo de trânsito do pulso ultrassônico, mesma técnica presente nos sensores de distância para medidas de espaço. Aqui foram feitas diversas montagens buscando a melhor configuração a qual pudéssemos utilizar o sensor de distância para mensurar a velocidade do vento. Arranjos com anteparo e transdutores separados são exemplos, de montagens trabalhadas que serão detalhadas no capítulo 3. Com as medidas coletadas (sem e com vento) foram gerados histogramas, que mostram a distribuição dos registros de tempo de trânsito da onda sonora para cada caso. Duas das configurações estudadas apontam resultados favoráveis quanto ao uso do sensor de distância na medida da velocidade do vento.
4	CAIO VASCONCELOS PINHEIRO DA COSTA EVIDÊNCIAS OBSERVACIONAIS DE ILHAS DE CALOR URBANAS EM NATAL, BRASIL, NO PERÍODO DE 1970 A 2010. Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN MALCO JEIEL DE OLIVEIRA ALEXANDRE Data: Dec 15, 2014 Show Abstract Este trabalho propõe um estudo a partir de um conjunto de dados meteorológicos coletados na cidade de Natal/RN, buscando identificar evidências de alterações no seu clima urbano no período de 1970 a 2010. As variáveis utilizadas são: temperatura média, temperatura mínima e umidade relativa. Os dados foram obtidos a partir das estações meteorológicas localizada no Campus Central da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) e que faz parte da rede de observações do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) e do Centro de Lançamento de Foguetes Barreira do Inferno (CLBI), localizadas dentro de uma área urbana e de uma área não urbanizada, respectivamente. Procuram-se evidências da formação de uma Ilha de Calor Urbana na cidade de Natal, possivelmente relacionadas ao crescente processo de urbanização existente nos últimos anos. Foi avaliada a tendência linear nas séries temporais através do template MAKESENS, usado para determinar o teste de Mann-Kendall e do método de estimativa de inclinações de Sen. Os resultados apontam para tendências de crescimento em algumas séries de dados referentes à temperatura média e temperatura mínima e para tendências de decrescimento da umidade relativa média, essas tendências são mais evidentes na área urbana relativamente a área não urbanizada, o que evidenciam algumas características típicas das Ilhas de Calor Urbanas.
	Thesis
1	MARCOS AURELIO FERREIRA DOS SANTOS ESTIMATIVA DO FLUXO DE CALOR E DA DIFUSIVIDADE TÉRMICA DO SOLO,BASEADO NA SOLUÇÃO DA DERIVADA TEMPORAL FRACIONÁRIA DE MEIA ORDEM EM FERRAMENTA DE SOFTWARE Advisor : FERNANDO MOREIRA DA SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : FERNANDO MOREIRA DA SILVA ARTHUR MATTOS GEORGE SANTOS MARINHO ALAIN MARIE BERNARD PASSERAT DE SILANS MARIA ROSIMAR DE SOUZA Data: Feb 25, 2014 Show Abstract O fluxo de calor e a difusividade térmica do solo são importantes componentes do balanço de energia de superfície, particularmente para regiões áridas e semiáridas. O objetivo deste trabalho foi realizar a estimativa do fluxo de calor no solo, a partir da temperatura do solo medida em uma única profundidade, baseado no método da derivada fracionária de meia ordem proposta por Wang e Bras (1999), e estabelecer um método capaz de estimar a difusividade térmica do solo baseado na derivada temporal fracionária de meiaordem da temperatura do solo. Os resultados de fluxo de calor no solo foram comparados com o fluxo de calor no solo medido através de 2 placas de fluxo, e a difusividade térmica estimada foi comparada com medidas realizadas ‘in loco’. Os resultados obtidos mostram excelente concordância entre o fluxo estimado a partir da solução adotada e o fluxo medido, permitindo estimativas de longo termo para o fluxo de calor no solo a partir da série temporal de temperatura medida em uma única profundidade, bem como os valores da difusividade térmica estimados pelo método estabelecido se mostraram coerentes e concordantes com valores medidos ‘in loco’, e com valores encontrados na literatura utilizando métodos convencionais.
2	EDMIR DOS SANTOS JESUS Avaliação da Evapotranspiração na microrregião do Seridó como fator do desenvolvimento regional Advisor : ARTHUR MATTOS COMMITTEE MEMBERS : ARTHUR MATTOS FERNANDO MOREIRA DA SILVA MARIO PEREIRA DA SILVA JOSEMIR ARAÚJO NEVES RAFAEL FERREIRA DA COSTA Data: Feb 26, 2014 Show Abstract O objetivo desta pesquisa foi estimar avaliar a evapotranspiração na microrregião do Seridó a partir de dados pontuais de alguns municípios pertencentes para verificar os potenciais evapotranspirométricos da região. Os resultados apresentados pelos principais métodos de estimativa deram conta de que o método de Hagreaves-Samani foi o que apresentou melhor ajuste em relação ao método de Penman-Monteith (FAO 56), mostrando ser viável de utilização, apresentando “muito bom” desempenho conforme os dados medidos e estimados para as localidades estudadas. Os métodos de Penman, Thornthwaite e Romanenko não responderam muito bem em pelo menos 4 das localidades estudadas, ficando com o “péssimo” desempenho para o estudo devido a análise estatística ter mostrado resultados menos significativos e não significativos em relação ao método padrão de Penman-Monteith. A simulação de cenários segundo o IPCC foram plotados conforme os aumentos na temperatura média do ar, e utilizando dos métodos de evapotranspiração mostraram que os valores resultantes apontam alta na metade oeste da região do Seridó. E que devido a essas previsões de aumento gradativo na temperatura e conseqüentemente na evapotranspiração, os municípios pertencentes a essa região poderão ser castigados com o alto valor no déficit hídrico. Em complemento a esses resultados foram levantadas questões com relação ao contínuo desenvolvimento da região, pois com o aumento nos altos valores de Eto poderá acarretar sérios problemas às comunidades que necessitam da água disponível em açudes e reservatórios destinados ao abastecimento para consumo, agricultura familiar e a agropecuária.
3	ALEXANDRE BOLEIRA LOPO MODELAGEM ESTOCÁSTICA DO ÍNDICE DE RADIAÇÃO ULTRAVIOLETA NA COSTA LESTE DO NORDESTE DO BRASIL Advisor : MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES COMMITTEE MEMBERS : DAVID MENDES ENIO BUENO PEREIRA FRANCISCO JAVIER SIGRO RODRIGUEZ JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES PAULO SERGIO LUCIO Data: Mar 26, 2014 Show Abstract A elevação da radiação ultravioleta (UV), a alta incidência de câncer de pele não melanoma (CPNM) no Nordeste do Brasil (NEB) e a redução da coluna total de ozônio foram os motivadores do presente estudo. O objetivo geral consistiu em identificar e compreender a variabilidade da UV e Índice de Radiação Ultravioleta (índice UV) nas capitais da costa leste do NEB e ajustar modelos estocásticos às séries temporais do índice UV visando realizar predições (interpolações) e previsões/projeções (extrapolações) seguido de análise de tendência. A metodologia utilizou análise de componentes principais, análise de cluster, método de média preditiva ou Predictive Mean Matching (PMM) para preenchimento de falhas nos dados, modelo autoregressivo de defasagens distribuídas ou Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) e teste Mann-Kendal. A modelagem via ADL ocorreu através da estimação de parâmetros, diagnóstico, análise de resíduos e avaliação da qualidade das predições/previsões via erro quadrático médio e coeficiente de correlação de Pearson. Os resultados da investigação indicaram que a variabilidade anual da UV na capital do Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) possui uma característica nos meses de setembro e outubro que consiste em uma estabilização/redução do índice UV numa fase de crescimento da Radiação Solar Global em razão da maior concentração anual de ozônio total. A maior quantidade de aerossóis neste período contribui em menor intensidade para este evento. A aplicação da análise de Cluster na costa leste do NEB mostrou que este evento também ocorre nas capitais da Paraíba (João Pessoa) e Pernambuco (Recife). Os eventos extremos da UV foram identificados a partir da cidade de Natal e estavam associados a níveis abaixo da média anual de ozônio total e falta de cobertura de nuvens e não ocorriam na totalidade da região em função da distribuição espacial desigual dessas variáveis. O modelo ADL (4, 1), ajustado com dados de índice UV e ozônio total no período de 2001 a 2012, realizou a projeção/extrapolação para os próximos 30 anos (2013-2043) e indicou ao fim deste período elevação de cerca de uma unidade do índice UV caso o ozônio total mantenha a tendência de queda verificada nesse período.
4	WASHINGTON LUIZ FÉLIX CORREIA FILHO MODELOS DE DISPERSÃO PARA EXTREMOS DE PRECIPITAÇÃO PARA O NORDESTE DO BRASIL. Advisor : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO COMMITTEE MEMBERS : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO DAVID MENDES KELLEN CARLA LIMA MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES AFRÂNIO MÁRCIO CORREA VIEIRA FRANCISCO JAVIER SIGRO RODRIGUEZ Data: Mar 27, 2014 Show Abstract Nesta tese foram utilizados três diferentes modelos de regressão, os Modelos Lineares Generalizados via regressão logística e de Poisson e os Modelos Vetoriais Lineares Generalizados via distribuição generalizada de valores extremos (MVLG-GEV) com o objetivo de detectar os extremos de precipitação no Nordeste do Brasil. Inicialmente aplicaram-se os modelos de regressão logística e de Poisson para identificar as interações entre os extremos de precipitação e as demais variáveis a partir das razões de chances e de riscos relativos. Constatou-se que a variável indicadora da ocorrência de extremos de precipitação é a radiação de onda longa, verificada nas regiões leste, norte e semiárido do NEB, e a umidade relativa foi verificada no sul do NEB, em ambos os modelos. Os resultados apresentados pelos modelos de regressão logística e de Poisson mostram evidências de que estes extremos de precipitação são impulsionados pela Oscilação Madden-Julian, que ao interagir com os outros sistemas meteorológicos locais, regionais e grande escala podem ocasionar a ocorrência destes extremos. O terceiro modelo, MVLG-GEV, avaliou os extremos a partir dos máximos anuais de precipitação de forma múltipla (a partir de um conjunto de variáveis) e constatou-se que as variáveis que subsidiaram a ocorrência dos extremos de precipitação foram: as componentes zonal e meridional do vento, evaporação e TSM (Atlântico e Pacífico). Este artigo mostra evidências de que a variabilidade da TSM vistas no Atlântico como no Pacífico (El Niño-Oscilação Sul) interfera na variabilidade interanual da precipitação, modificando o padrão de circulação atmosférica na região, resultando na intensificação ou inibição da ocorrência dos extremos de precipitação. Os coeficientes de regressão logística, de Poisson e de MVLG-GEV demonstraram significância estatística, inferiores a 5%. Em relação aos níveis de retorno para os próximos 30 anos pelos MVLG-GEV, o menor nível foi de 91,62mm no sul da Bahia, enquanto o maior foi de 185,72mm no norte do Ceará.
5	PRISCILLA TELES DE OLIVEIRA Estudo Estatístico Sobre Eventos de Precipitação Intensa no Nordeste do Brasil Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA DAVID MENDES IRACEMA FONSECA DE ALBUQUERQUE CAVALCANTI KELLEN CARLA LIMA PAULO SERGIO LUCIO SAMIA REGINA GARCIA CALHEIROS Data: Apr 16, 2014 Show Abstract O Nordeste do Brasil (NEB) apresenta alta variabilidade no clima, abrangendo desderegiões semi-áridas até regiões com alto índice pluviométrico. Segundo o último relatório doIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, o NEB é uma região altamente susceptível àsmudanças climáticas, além de ser uma região sujeita à ocorrência de eventos de precipitaçãointensa (EPI); contudo, ainda existem poucos estudos sobre a climatologia destes episódios naregião. Neste sentido, o objetivo principal da pesquisa é determinar a climatologia e tendênciados EPI sobre o NEB e suas sub-regiões climatologicamente homogêneas, comparando seucomportamento com a climatologia e tendência dos eventos de precipitação fraca e dos eventosde precipitação normal. Para tanto, foram utilizados os dados diários de precipitação da redehidrometeorológica gerenciada pela Agência Nacional de Águas, para o período de 1972 a 2002.Por intermédio da técnica dos quantis foram definidos os eventos de precipitação e sua confiançaestatística foi analisada através do teste de Mann Kendall. As sub-regiões foram obtidas por meioda análise de cluster, utilizando como medida de similaridade a distância euclidiana e o métodohierárquico aglomerativo de Ward. Os resultados mostraram que a sazonalidade do NEB estásendo intensificada, ou seja, a estação seca está se tornando mais seca e estação chuvosa ficandomais chuvosa. Os fenômenos El Niño e La Niña influenciam mais em relação à quantidade deeventos do que em relação à intensidade, mas nas sub-regiões esta influência é menosperceptível. Utilizando dados diários das reanálises do ERA-Interim, campos das anomalias doscompostos de variáveis meteorológicas foram calculados para o litoral do NEB, paracaracterização do ambiente sinótico. Foram identificados os Vórtices Ciclônicos de Altos Níveise a Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul como os principais sistemas meteorológicosresponsáveis pela formação dos EPI no litoral.
6	JOÃO GUALBERTO DE CERQUEIRA JÚNIOR Desenvolvimento e calibração de fotômetro solar para medições da profundidade óptica por aerossóis e coluna de água precipitável Advisor : JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ COMMITTEE MEMBERS : JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ GEORGE SANTOS MARINHO JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN MARCIO ASSOLIN CORREA NEUSA MARIA PAES LEME ENIO BUENO PEREIRA NELSON VEISSID Data: Jun 10, 2014 Show Abstract O objetivo do trabalho foi estudar a possibilidade de calibração do fotômetro solar multibanda (FSM-4), desenvolvido para esse trabalho, que opera nas bandas de 500 nm, 670 nm 870 nm e 940 nm. Investigou-se a estabilidade da profundidade óptica da atmosfera em um sítio na cidade de Caicó/RN, situada região semiárida do nordeste do Brasil. O sítio é uma região afastada de grandes centros e de atividades geradoras de poluição atmosférica. Foram coletados dados de irradiância solar direta em duas campanhas distintas durante o período seco, sendo uma em Dezembro de 2012 e outra em Setembro de 2013, para fins de calibração do protótipo. Para a calibração foram utilizados os métodos de Langley (ML) e método modificado de Langley (MLM), fazendo-se uso das medidas coletadas. Para as bandas de 500 nm, 670 nm e 870 nm, utilizadas para a medida da profundidade óptica por aerossóis (AOD), foi utilizado o ML e para a banda de 940 nm, na qual é medida a coluna de água precipitável (PWC) ou vapor de água na atmosfera, utilizou-se o MLM. Dentre os vários componentes constituintes da atmosfera, o vapor de água e os aerossóis são os que apresentam a maior variabilidade temporal, devido a fenômenos naturais e antropogênicos, e exercem um papel importante no balanço de energia do planeta. O que justifica os esforços para o desenvolvimento de um equipamento de baixo custo. Assim, por meio do ML e MLM aplicado aos dados coletados, foram observadas variabilidades na AOD e PWC para as quatro bandas, nos dois períodos estudados. Essa variabilidade da AOD e PWC no momento da coleta, que se dá por meio do espalhamento ou absorção da radiação solar na atmosfera, prejudicam o ajuste da reta aos dados e dificultando a obtenção da constante de calibração. Entretanto a região ainda não pode ser totalmente descartada como sítio de calibração, pois as campanhas foram de duração reduzida e as metodologias devem ser testadas em outros períodos do ano. Como alternativa para a calibração do fotômetro solar, foi feito um estudo de curta duração, junto ao fotômetro da rede mundial AERONET (AERsol RObotic NETwork), instalado em Petrolina/PE, da agência espacial americana (NASA). Foram coletados dados durante três dias com os instrumentos AERONET e FSM-4 operados simultaneamente no mesmo local. Por meio das técnicas de ML e MLM foram obtidos valores para teste das constantes de calibração. Foi observada uma convergência dos valores, apesar da pouca quantidade de dados coletados. A metodologia mostrou-se uma alternativa viável para a calibração do FSM-4.
7	DARLAN MARTINES SCHMIDT DINÂMICA DAS CONFIGURAÇÕES DE FORMAÇÃO E INIBIÇÃO DAS CHUVAS NO RIO GRANDE DO NORTE: CARACTERIZAÇÃO HIDRO - CLIMÁTICA DO ESTADO Advisor : ARTHUR MATTOS COMMITTEE MEMBERS : ARTHUR MATTOS FERNANDO MOREIRA DA SILVA GEORGE SANTOS MARINHO ALAIN MARIE BERNARD PASSERAT DE SILANS JOSEMIR ARAÚJO NEVES Data: Jul 30, 2014 Show Abstract Neste estudo teve - se como objetivo, avaliar qual a influência dos principais mecanismosmeteorológicos formadores e inibidores de precipitação, e as interações entre diferentes escalas de atuação, na variabilidade espacial e temporal do ciclo anual da precipitação no Rio Grande do Norte. Considerando ainda particularidades locais e regionais, criando assim uma base científica de apoio para ações futuras no manejo da demanda hídrica no Estado. Foramutilizados dados de precipitação mensal de 45 anos, compreendidos entre 1963 e 2007, dados cedidos pela EMPARN. A metodologia aplicada para se atingir os resultados foi composta inicialmente da análise estatística descritiva dos dados históricos, para comprovar a estabilidadeda série, posteriormente, foi aplicada a geoestatística como ferramenta base para a plotagem dos mapas das variáveis, dentro da geoestatística optou-se pelo método de interpolação porKrigagem pois foi o método que apresentou os melhores resultados e menores erros de plotagem. Dentre os resultados, destaca-se o ciclo anual da precipitação do Estado que é influenciado por mecanismos meteorológicos das diferentes escalas espaciais e temporais, onde os principais mecanismos moduladores desse ciclo são a Zona de Convergência Intertropical (ZCIT) atuando de meados de fevereiro a meados de maio em todo o Estado, Ondas de Leste (OL), Linhas de Instabilidade (LI), Sistemas de Brisas e Chuvas Orográficas atuando principalmente na faixa Litorânea entre fevereiro e julho. Juntamente com Vórtices Ciclônicos de Altos Níveis (VCANs), Complexos Convectivos de Mesoescala (CCMs) e chuvas orográficas em qualquer região do Estado principalmente na primavera e verão. Em termos de fenômenos de maior escala destacaram-se EL NIÑO e LA NIÑA, ENOS na bacia do Pacífico Tropical, em episódios de LA NIÑA, geralmente ocorrem anos normais a chuvosos, já quando da ocorrência de períodos prolongados de escassez de chuvas são pela influência de EL NIÑO. Na bacia do oceano Atlântico o padrão de Dipolo também interfere na intensidade do ciclo das chuvas. O ciclo das chuvas no Rio Grande do Norte é dividido em dois períodos, um compreendendo as mesorregiões Oeste, Central e Porção Oeste da Agreste Potiguar a oeste da Chapada da Borborema, provocando chuvas de meados de fevereiro a meados de maio e um segundo período de ocorrência de chuvas, compreendido entre fevereiro a julho, onde as chuvas ocorrem na mesorregião Leste e restante da Agreste, situada a barlavento da Chapada da Borborema, ambos intercalados por períodos secos sem ocorrência de precipitações significativas e por períodos de transição de chuvoso-seco e de seco-chuvoso, onde podem ocorrem precipitações isoladas. Aproximadamente 82% das estações pluviométricas do Estado o que corresponde a 83,4% da área total do Rio Grande do Norte, não registram volumes anuais acima de 900 mm. Devido a oferta hídrica do Estado ser mantida por pequenos reservatórios, que já encontram – se em estado de eutrofização avançado, quando ocorrem as chuvas, atuam para lavar e substituir as águas dos reservatórios, melhorando a qualidade dessas, diminuindo o processo de eutrofização. Pois quando as mesmas não ocorrem significativamente ou longos períodos de escassez, o processo de deterioração das águas e eutrofização dos açudes aumenta significativamente. Através do conhecimento do comportamento anual do ciclo das chuvas se pode ter uma noção prévia de como poderá ser a tendência do período seguinte, tanto chuvosoou propenso a escassez, principalmente observando as tendências dos fenômenos de maior escala.
8	BRUCE KELLY DA NOBREGA SILVA INDICADOR DE VULNERABILIDADE AGROPECUÁRIA A EXTREMOS CLIMÁTICOS PARA O NORDESTE DO BRASIL. Advisor : PAULO SERGIO LUCIO COMMITTEE MEMBERS : BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA CARLOS ANTONIO COSTA DOS SANTOS CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA JOSÉ ANTÔNIO MARENGO MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES PAULO SERGIO LUCIO Data: Sep 1, 2014 Show Abstract A região Nordeste do Brasil (NEB) é susceptível a extremos climáticos devido à alta variabilidade temporal e espacial da precipitação. Vários estudos têm investigado tal variabilidade com o propósito de compreender os episódios danosos, como secas e enchentes. O fenômeno da seca no NEB configura-se por tratar-se de tema complexo por afetar milhões de pessoas e ser objeto de estudos em diversas áreas do conhecimento. Uma forma de tentar argumentar sobre esse fenômeno é utilizando o conceito de vulnerabilidade. Para mensurar um indicador de vulnerabilidade é necessário grande quantidade de dados de diferentes áreas do conhecimento, dentre as quais incluem-se a meteorologia, socioambiental, econômico, saúde pública, entre outros. O principal objetivo desse trabalho foi criar um indicador de vulnerabilidade à extremos climáticos (seca e inundação) para o NEB. Os dados que foram utilizados pertencem a ANA (Agência Nacional das Águas), IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística) e Ministério da Integração Nacional. Os resultados mostram que o sul da NEB apresentou os maiores indicadores de vulnerabilidade, sendo que parte do semiárido grau moderado, relacionando-se ao grau de exposição ou susceptibilidade a seca e sensibilidade agrícola nas áreas mais produtivas da região. Em relação ao fator incapacidade adaptativa AI, este não apresentou resultados significativos para a composição do indicador de vulnerabilidade.
9	ALEXANDRE TORRES SILVA DOS SANTOS UM ESTUDO SOBRE A VARIABILIDADE DO VENTO NO NORDESTE DO BRASIL ATRAVÉS DE MÉTODOS ESTATÍSTICOS E VIA MODELOS DINÂMICOS DE MESO E MICRO ESCALA Advisor : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA COMMITTEE MEMBERS : CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA KELLEN CARLA LIMA PAULO SERGIO LUCIO ENIO PEREIRA DE SOUZA JOHN EDWARD NEIRA VILLENA Data: Dec 8, 2014 Show Abstract O objetivo deste trabalho foi determinar a variabilidade sazonal-interanual e tendência da velocidade do vento e validar o modelo numérico de mesoescala para depois acoplar com o modelo numérico de microescala no intuito de obter recursos eólicos em algumas localidades no Nordeste do Brasil (NEB). Para isso usamos dois conjuntos de dados de velocidade do vento (estações meteorológicas e torres anemométricas) e dois modelos dinâmicos; um de mesoescala e outro de microescala. Usamos ferramentas estatísticas para avaliar e validar os dados medidos e simulados. As simulações do modelo dinâmico de mesoescala foram realizadas através de métodos de assimilação de dados (relaxamento newtoniano e filtro de Kalman). Os principais resultados apontam: (i) Cinco grupos homogêneos de velocidade do vento no NEB com valores maiores no inverno e primavera e menores para verão e outono; (ii) A variabilidade interanual da velocidade do vento em alguns grupos se destacaram com valores maiores; (iii) A circulação de grande escala modificada por fenômenos El Niño e La Niña alterou a intensidade da velocidade do vento para os grupos com maiores valores; (iv) A análise de tendência mostrou valores negativos mais significativos para os grupos G3, G4 e G5 em todas as estações do ano e na média anual; (v) O desempenho do modelo dinâmico de mesoescala apresentou menores erros nas localidades Paracuru e São João do Cariri e maiores erros foram observados em Triunfo; (vi) Aplicação do filtro de Kalman diminuir significativamente os erros sistemáticos apresentados nas simulações do modelo dinâmico de mesoescala; (vii) Os recursos eólicos apontam que as áreas Paracuru e Triunfo são favoráveis para geração de energia, sendo que a técnica de acoplamento após validação apresentou melhor resultado para Paracuru. Concluímos que o objetivo do estudo foi alcançado, sendo possível agora identificar tendências em grupos homogêneos do comportamento do vento, além de avaliar à qualidade das simulações tanto com o modelo dinâmico de mesoescala como de microescala para responder questões necessárias antes de planejar projetos de pesquisas na área eólica.