Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: SAMYR BARATA CHEBLY

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : SAMYR BARATA CHEBLY
DATE: 30/09/2022
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: GOOGLE MEET
TITLE:

Heat waves in the Northern region of Brazil during the period from 1980 to 2019.

KEY WORDS:

Extremes of Air Temperature, Land Use and Cover, ENSO and Climate Change, Ensemble, Amazon.

PAGES: 70
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SPECIALTY: Climatologia
SUMMARY:

The objective of this research is to investigate the Heat Waves (OC) for the capitals of the North region of Brazil (NB) during the period from 1980 to 2019. For this, observed daily data of maximum air temperature (Tmax) were used. , obtained from conventional meteorological stations from the Teaching and Research Database (BDMEP) of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). Regarding the analysis of land use and land cover, Landsat 5 and 8 satellite images will be used. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events will be identified through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Niño Ocean Index (IOS). With regard to Regional Climate Modeling (RCM) simulations of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) will be used to generate RCM ensembles referring to past, near and distant future climates. The identification of OC occurred through metrics based on the statistical percentile, with a threshold of 90 percent. Cross-correlation will be used to assess the relationship between OCs and ENSO. The Mann-Kendall test will be used to investigate possible trends in OC. For the analysis of land use and land cover change, satellite images from Landsat 5 and 8 will be used. Regarding the climate projection, the Multiple Regression by Principal Components (RMCP) technique will be used in order to generate an ensemble of Regional Climate Models (MCR). Preliminary results indicated an increase in the number and frequency of OC annually in Belém, Macapá, Boa Vista, Manaus, Rio Branco, Porto Velho and Palmas. Regarding the average annual duration, the cities of Belém, Macapá, Boa Vista, Rio Branco and Palmas had a persistent average annual duration above 10 days. While for Manaus and Porto Velho the average annual duration of the OC did not exceed 10 days. Regarding the average intensity of OC in Belém and Macapá, it presented an average annual excess of 2 °C. The capitals Boa Vista, Manaus and Porto Velho had an average surplus above 3 °C, while for Rio Branco and Palmas it was above 4 °C. Regarding the number of occurrences of OC in the rainy and less rainy seasons, it was observed that the OCs occurred more in the less rainy season in all analyzed capitals.

 

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1914304 - KELLEN CARLA LIMA
Externo à Instituição - ENILSON PALMEIRA CAVALCANTI - UFCG
Externo à Instituição - MARCOS SAMUEL MATIAS RIBEIRO - UFRA