Banca de DEFESA: MARIA LEIDINICE DA SILVA

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : MARIA LEIDINICE DA SILVA
DATE: 24/06/2022
TIME: 13:00
LOCAL: videoconferência
TITLE:

Assessment of climate change impact over Tropical South American using dynamical downscaling: historical and future

KEY WORDS:

CMIP5. RegCM4.7. Climate Change. Extreme Events.

PAGES: 202
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SPECIALTY: Climatologia
SUMMARY:

Regionalized simulations with the Regional Climate Modeling system version 4.7 (RegCM4.7) coupled with the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) under low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios that interact with Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) were carried out on tropical South America (AST). With the objective of evaluating the Added Value (AV) of the regional modeling through dynamic downscaling during the historical period (1986–2005), as well as analyzing the regional aspects simulated by the model in reporting the projections of climate change in the distant future (2080 –2099). In view of this, this research consisted of three main steps: i) initially, the Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method - among other analyzes - was used to evaluate and rank General Circulation Models (GCM) that are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) when reproducing surface variables over AST sub-regions (SAMZ, ENEB, MATOPIBA); ii) in addition to demonstrating a selection methodology that avoids less realistic input models, after selecting the GCM, dynamic downscaling was performed on the AST domain and, consequently, the validation of the simulations; iii) finally, the climatic extremes were evaluated. The climate over the domain of interest will be characterized based on the variables of precipitation and air temperature near the surface. The average climate of the historical period was compared with the monthly dataset of the Climate Research Unit version ts4.02 (CRU). In turn, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) daily dataset was used to validate climate extremes. The selection results point to the HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-ACESS1.0 (MME, NorESM-ME) GCMs as the best to represent precipitation (temperature) over AST sub-regions. Leading considering the computational limitations, only HadGEM-ES was selected to direct RegCM4.7 and generate the necessary climate simulations and projections for the following stages of this study. Regarding dynamic downscaling, RegCM4.7 presents AV in the spatial representation of precipitation and temperature over the Northeast region of Brazil and part of the Andes Mountains, mainly in winter. However, it does not adequately represent the precipitation over the Amazon Basin, especially in summer. The average climate projections indicate that the more refined RegCM4.7 simulation improves the spatial patterns projected from the coarser resolution simulation of HadGEM2-ES and even modifies the precipitation signal in some cases, e.g., in autumn. Regarding temperature, both models project an increase with greater magnitude for RCP8.5. With respect to climate extremes, the RCM projects more significant changes in rainfall and temperature than the driving GCM, indicating greater sensitivity to changes in extremes. Although some differences and biases still persist, properly configured RegCM4.7 is a viable tool for climate studies.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1280761 - CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA
Interno - 1752417 - CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA
Interno - 1164414 - WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES
Externo à Instituição - ANA CAROLINA VASQUES FREITAS - UNIFEI
Externo à Instituição - TERCIO AMBRIZZI - USP