Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: FELIPE JEFERSON DE MEDEIROS

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : FELIPE JEFERSON DE MEDEIROS
DATE: 24/02/2022
TIME: 13:00
LOCAL: Remoto
TITLE:

ASSESSMENT OF THE ADDED VALUE OF CMIP MODELS IN SIMULATING EXTREME PRECIPITATION OVER BRAZIL: HISTORICAL AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVES

KEY WORDS:

Climate indices, Extreme events, Precipitation, Climate projections, Climate change.

PAGES: 98
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SPECIALTY: Climatologia
SUMMARY:

The occurrence of extreme climate events usually causes numerous economic and social losses, especially in vulnerable and low adaptive capacity areas, such as Brazil. Despite these aspects and verifying that extreme events are becoming increasingly frequent, intense and long-lasting few studies have investigated this subject in Brazil, and most of them rarely ever evaluate the climate projections. In this context, the main goal of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models in simulate the extreme climate events of precipitation and assess their projected changes for Brazil. Within this scope, 40 General Circulation Models (GCMs) belonging to 7 families of CMIP3, CMIP5 and CMIP6 will be used. With the daily data from these models, eight extreme climate indices of precipitation recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) that assess the intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme climate events will be evaluate. The simulated indices will be evaluated through the daily records from the gridded dataset of Xavier et al., (2016). For that, four statistical metrics will be used: Percent Bias (PBIAS), RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR), refined index of agreement (dr) and Pearson correlation coefficient (CORR). Furthermore, the comprehensive model rank (Mr rank) will be applied to analyze whether the evolution of the CMIP models provided an improvement in the simulation of extreme climate events. This step will allow to select the best models to investigate the future climate, which will be considered under the most pessimistic scenario. As preliminary results, it was found that despite the model performance depends on the extreme climate events investigated and the region analyzed, the climate indices Rx1day, CDD e CWD were the worst simulated over Brazil, while the best was PRCPTOT, R20mm and SDII. In relation to the uncertainty assessment for the Brazil’s regions, the largest uncertainty was found for the North and Northeast Brazil, while the higher reliability was for Southeast and South regions. Finally, the results show that, at least for Brazil, the evolution of the CMIP models did not improve the simulations of the extreme climate events of precipitation. The next steps of the research will investigate how the extreme climate events of precipitation may behave in the future over Brazil. Such a result provides a useful information to produce devising adaptations and vulnerability strategies to deal with the effects of the climate change. Therefore, this study aims to contribute to the understanding of the occurrence of extreme climate events over Brazil and seeks to understand how the CMIP models are simulating and projecting these events.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1280761 - CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA
Interno - 1752417 - CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA
Externo ao Programa - 227.183.968-81 - ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES - UNIFEI
Externo à Instituição - ALVARO JAVIER AVILA DIAZ