Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: GUSTAVO CUSTODIO MATSUBARA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : GUSTAVO CUSTODIO MATSUBARA
DATA : 24/06/2019
HORA: 09:00
LOCAL: Auditório CCET
TÍTULO:

CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTED IMPACTS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION IN THE BRAZILIAN NORTHEAST

PALAVRAS-CHAVES:

Renewable Energy, Energy Transition; RegCM4; Solar Power; Wind Power.

PÁGINAS: 52
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
ÁREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
ESPECIALIDADE: Climatologia
RESUMO:

The use of renewable sources for power generation is essential to the balance of the Brazilian energy system. The highest energy potential from wind and solar sources is concentrated in the Northeast region of the country, and yet these generation sources are still little explored, corresponding to approximately 7% of the electricity generated in Brazil. In recent years, several mapping studies of the potential energy generation have been carried out for the Brazilian territory, but few evaluate possible impacts of future changes in climate on wind intensity and solar irradiation. In addition, the importance of consistent climate studies for the formulation of more effective public energy policies and how they can contribute to regional development is rarely addressed. In this context, the general objective of this study is to better understand the behavior of wind intensities and solar irradiance in scenarios of future climate change in the Northeast region of Brazil, since this can be a valuable tool for decision making and adequate medium/long term energy planning. For this, wind intensity and solar irradiance projections will be performed using the regional climate model RegCM4.7.1 and the dynamic downscaling will use the output of the global model Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System model (HadGEM2-ES). The recent past experiments will be carried out for the period from 1995 to 2005. For future climate projections, the RCP8.5 emissions scenario will be used, with projections from 2005 to 2015 for the beginning of the century, from 2040 to 2050 for the middle of the century and from 2090 to 2100 for the end of the century. The results will be compared to daily and monthly interpolation data produced by Xavier et al. (2016) over the Brazilian territory and the performance of the simulations will be evaluated through the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Deviation or Uncertainty (BIAS), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and RCoV – Robust Coefficient of Variation). The wind intensity at different heights will be obtained by logarithmic extrapolation techniques and the wind power potential will be calculated from wind speed, temperature and air density at the desired height. It is hoped to produce a scientifically more consistent database for the Northeast that can serve as an initial subsidy for decision makers in the planning of public energy policies.

MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Interno - 1752417 - CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA
Interno - 1280761 - CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA
Interna - 1879213 - JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN
Externa ao Programa - 2374871 - ZORAIDE SOUZA PESSOA