Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: JESSICA BLEUEL

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : JESSICA BLEUEL
DATA : 11/10/2019
HORA: 09:00
LOCAL: Sala de reuniões do DECOL
TÍTULO:

Identifying coral bleaching hotspots: a predictive and functional approach 

PALAVRAS-CHAVES:

 Climate changes ; South Atlantic ; Bayesian hierarchical model ; functional traits

PÁGINAS: 50
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Biológicas
ÁREA: Ecologia
RESUMO:

Global climate changes threaten coral reefs around the world, increasing the annual frequency and severity of coral bleaching events. Identifying the most vulnerable areas to coral bleaching could guide monitoring and conservation efforts. We developed Bayesian predictive models based on i) the distribution of zooxanthelate scleractinian coral species; ii) mean percentage cover and iii) bleaching percentage, using the Brazilian coast as a model. Eight environmental variables were included in predictive models for the present day condition, and future temperature and salinity were obtained from the IPCC report under the RCP8.5 scenario to project models for the years of 2050 and 2100. Our projections showed that the most vulnerable areas to coral bleaching are concentrated in the northeastern coast of Brazil, particularly in the state of Bahia (12°S and 19°S latitudes), spreading both southward and northward. Sites with medium vulnerability include two offshore islands (Fernando de Noronha and Trindade Island) and the north coast of Brazil, including areas of the Amazon reefs. Coral bleaching hotspots coincided with the highest coral cover in the Brazilian Province, including the largest and richest coral reef complex in South Atlantic (Abrolhos Bank). For the future projections, the coast of the State of Bahia continues to be the most vulnerable area to coral bleaching, intensifying and spreading southward and northward through the Brazilian coast including oceanic islands. The functional approach revealed that corals within these hotspots have intermediate levels of resistance and resilience, which might mitigate the impacts of future climate change. Mapping and predicting coral bleaching hotspots accounting for its abundance and functional traits related to their ability to cope with increasing temperature is a novel approach not only for the Brazilian coast, but at a global scale. This novel tool may be important to guide conservation efforts that reduce local impacts in the hotspot areas, potentially increasing the ability of corals to resist and recover after bleaching events.

MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Externa à Instituição - CARLA ZILBERBERG - UFRJ
Presidente - 2319234 - GUILHERME ORTIGARA LONGO
Interna - 1914239 - MIRIAM PLAZA PINTO