Banca de DEFESA: ANA CLARA DE MIRANDA CARVALHO

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : ANA CLARA DE MIRANDA CARVALHO
DATE: 30/07/2026
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: VIDEOCONFERÊNCIA
TITLE:

Determinants of the Primary Balance of Brazilian States

KEY WORDS:

primary balance; governmental financial condition; Brazilian states; fiscal federalism.

PAGES: 72
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Administração
SUBÁREA: Ciências Contábeis
SUMMARY:

This dissertation analyzes the determinants of the Primary Balance of the 27 Brazilian federative units between 2015 and 2024, integrating, into a single panel data model, five dimensions typically treated in isolation by the literature: economic, social, political, demographic, and institutional. The main model was estimated using Fixed Effects by a federative unit, with clustered robust standard errors, a specification validated by the  Hausman, Wooldridge, and group-wise Wald tests, on a sample of 270 balanced observations. During the construction of the database, it was identified that the proxy initially adopted for the Human Development Index masked the variable's actual variation between 2022 and 2024. The reconstruction of the database with updated official series and the systematic comparison between the two panel versions constitute a methodological contribution of this study: they show that imputation decisions based on repeating the last observed value can reverse the direction and significance of estimated coefficients in Fixed Effects panel models. Among the six hypotheses tested, only the effect of the Human Development Index on the Primary Balance holds in the main specification, and in the opposite direction to that expected: states with higher human development present lower, not higher, Primary Balance. Per capita GDP, electoral cycle, population density, personnel expenditure, and net indebtedness show no significant effect. The study offers empirical evidence for public managers, legislators, and oversight bodies in formulating policies aimed at the fiscal sustainability of Brazilian states.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Interno - 1149391 - ANAILSON MARCIO GOMES
Presidente - 1149555 - SEVERINO CESARIO DE LIMA
Externo à Instituição - YURI DANTAS DOS SANTOS