Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: ANA CLARA DE MIRANDA CARVALHO

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : ANA CLARA DE MIRANDA CARVALHO
DATE: 08/06/2026
TIME: 10:30
LOCAL: VIDEOCONFERÊNCIA
TITLE:

Determinants of the Primary Balance of Brazilian States

KEY WORDS:

primary balance; governmental financial condition; Brazilian states; panel data; fiscal federalism.

PAGES: 45
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Administração
SUBÁREA: Ciências Contábeis
SUMMARY:

The fiscal balance of Brazilian states depends on structural factors that the literature tends to examine in isolation, without capturing their interactions on the primary balance. This study analyzes the determinants of the primary balance of Brazil's 27 federal units over the period 2015–2024, using multiple regression with panel data. The variables investigated represent four dimensions: economic (GDP per capita), social (Human Development Index), political (electoral cycle), and demographic (population density), with Net Current Revenue as a control variable. The choice between fixed effects and random effects models will be determined by the Hausman test. The hypotheses indicate a positive effect of GDP per capita and HDI on the primary balance, and a negative effect of electoral years and population density. The central contribution lies in the integrated analysis of these dimensions within a single model, providing empirical evidence for public managers and oversight bodies on the determinants of state fiscal performance.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1149555 - SEVERINO CESARIO DE LIMA
Interno - 1149391 - ANAILSON MARCIO GOMES
Externo à Instituição - YURI DANTAS DOS SANTOS