Corporate Sustainable Bonds in Brazil
Green bonds; Sustainable bonds; Event study; Spillover effect; Brazilian capital market.
This dissertation investigates the reaction of the Brazilian capital market to sustainable bond issuances by companies with shares traded on the B3 (Brazilian Stock Exchange). Using event study methodology and a sample of 62 issuances carried out between 2015 and 2024, the research measures cumulative abnormal returns in multiple time windows around the issuance date. The results reveal a systematic pattern of negative abnormal returns, with an average cumulative abnormal return of -1.71% in the 21-business-day window around the event, statistically significant at the 5% level. This finding contrasts sharply with prevailing evidence from developed markets, where green bond issuances typically generate positive or neutral abnormal returns. Spillover effect analysis on 248 observations of competing companies does not identify significant impacts, suggesting that the market interprets sustainable bond issuances as idiosyncratic decisions with limited sectoral implications. Robustness analyses confirm the stability of the main results to alternative specifications of the estimation period and exclusion of confounding events. Subperiod analysis suggests a possible deterioration in market perception of sustainable bond issuances after 2020, with more negative abnormal returns in the recent period. The findings have relevant implications for companies considering issuing sustainable bonds, investors evaluating these issuances, and regulators developing policies to foster the Brazilian green market. The study contributes to the literature on sustainable finance by documenting the first systematic empirical evidence on market reactions to green bonds in Brazil and by showing that patterns observed in developed markets do not automatically generalize to the context of emerging markets with distinct institutional characteristics.