ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING AND GENETIC DIVERSITY OF Copernicia prunifera (Miller) H.E. Moore (ARECACEAE): IMPLICATIONS FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURAL POPULATIONS
Carnauba; Bottleneck; Habitat prediction; ISSR; Genetic variability.
The present work had as objectives to study the geographical distribution of C. prunifera based on ecological niche modeling and analyzing the genetic diversity among natural populations of the species. The ecological niche models (MNE) were built based on 85 points of occurrence of species and 19 environmental variables. The results suggest that the potential distribution model of C. prunifera concentrated in the Northeast and the environmental variable that most contributed to the MNE was the precipitation of driest quarter. In the study of genetic diversity were sampled 205 individuals distributed in 13 natural populations in northeastern Brazil. Seven ISSR primers were used and provided 100% 101 locos with polymorphism. The PIC of each initiator was considered average. Nei's genetic diversity (He) ranged from 0.071 to 0.288 and the Shannon index (Ho) of 0.103 to 0.418. The AMOVA indicated greater genetic variation between individuals within populations (54.51%) than among populations (45.49%). The Mantel test showed positive and significant correlation (r = 0.266; P = 0.019) between genetic and geographic distances, suggesting isolation by distance. The greatest value of gene flow occurred between AR1 and AR2 populations (Nm = 28.91), as well as the greater genetic similarity. Bayesian analysis revealed that the genotypes were divided into thirteen distinct groups (K = 13). Most populations showed genetic population bottleneck. The results suggest that populations of C. prunifera are losing genetic variability, being necessary the conservation of their populations in order to minimize loss of alleles are important, contributing to maintain the species.