Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: JOSÉ AUGUSTO FERREIRA NETO

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : JOSÉ AUGUSTO FERREIRA NETO
DATE: 15/10/2024
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: videoconferência
TITLE:

Application of the SPEEDY Model in sub-seasonal forecasting in Brazil, based on weak, moderate and intense EL nino events: An ensemble approach.

KEY WORDS:

Climate Modeling, ENSO, Subseasonal Forecasting, Ensemble

PAGES: 95
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SPECIALTY: Meteorologia Aplicada
SUMMARY:

Several factors act in controlling the Earth's climate and regulate its variations. For the study of some of these factors, numerical modeling is an indispensable tool. Many of the atmospheric teleconnections, associated with disturbances that occur in a certain area of the globe that cause effects on the climate in other distant regions, are associated with anomalies in Sea Surface Temperature (SST), and one of these best known and widely studied events is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has a positive and negative phase, both related to changes in SST. El Niño causes droughts in the equatorial part of South America, as well as excessive rains in the southern region of Brazil, northern Argentina and Uruguay during spring and summer. To carry out the simulations of these events, the SPEEDY model will be used, Sub-seasonal forecasts will be applied, and Ensemble forecasts with 100 members for each set of forecasts will be used. Three different regions of Brazil, North, Northeast and South, which are considered regions with high predictability for the models, will be used as the target of study. With this, 3 distinct El Niño events were selected, for each of the intensity categories, classified based on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). To verify the results of the simulations, three atmospheric variables will be used: Precipitation from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) data, air temperature and wind components from the ECMWF (ERA-5) data. As metrics for verifying the skill of the ensemble forecasts, the Brier Score (BS), Mean Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) diagram and Score will be used. The expected results are the verification of the percentages of correct answers of the model members, classified by category of event intensity, verification of the dispersion of the members in relation to the average set, verification of the consistency of the forecasts throughout the duration of the event, initiation, maturation and decay. Behavior of target variables in a sub-seasonal forecast.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1164414 - WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES
Interno - 1280761 - CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA
Externo à Instituição - JOSÉ FRANCISCO DE OLIVEIRA JÚNIOR