MODELING OF THE HYDROLOGICAL REGIME OF THE PIRACICABA AND ALTO SAO FRANCISCO RIVERS BASINS
hydrological regime, hydrological modeling, climate change
Quantifying the change in the hydrological regime and its vulnerability play a crucial role in defining and implementing sustainable water management in a changing environment. Associated with the increscent discrepancy between supply and demand of water resources, it is essential to know the changes in the hydrological regime caused by climate change. Although, no study has investigated the relationship between the hydrological regime and climate change in the Piracicaba Rives Basin and Alto São Francisco Rives basin. Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of climate change on the flow regime and water security, using hydrological modeling from two hydrological models, the SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure) and the Hymod (Conceptual Hydrological Model) to consider the uncertainties in hydrological projections. These models will be forced with regionalized data (~ 25 km) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Global Circulation Models for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). It is intended to estimate the impacts of climate change on the water security of the basins and to consider the uncertainties of hydrological modeling. These efforts will be essential in the sustainable management of water resources in the Piracicaba River Basin and Alto São Francisco River basin.