Banca de DEFESA: ANDRÉ FERREIRA DA FONSECA

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : ANDRÉ FERREIRA DA FONSECA
DATE: 25/02/2026
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: videoconferência
TITLE:

ANALYSIS OF HOURLY PRECIPITATION EXTREMES AND SOIL MOISTURE DYNAMICS IN RECIFE, BRAZIL

KEY WORDS:

probabilistic modeling; hydrological dynamics; generalized extreme value distribution; shallow landslides; urban hydrometeorological risk.

PAGES: 106
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SPECIALTY: Climatologia
SUMMARY:

Extreme precipitation at sub-daily timescales constitutes one of the main drivers of hydrometeorological risk in tropical coastal cities, where rapid urban drainage responses and slope instabilities may occur within time windows of only a few hours. This thesis investigates, in an integrated manner, (i) the severity and statistical recurrence of sub-daily precipitation extremes in Recife and (ii) the role of antecedent soil hydrological conditioning in the triggering of shallow landslides on urban slopes. To this end, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) was applied to block maxima derived from hourly time series from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) covering the period 2005–2021, complemented by disaster records from the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden) (2016–2021) and journalistic reports (2005–2021), aiming to contextualize the relevance of extremes through impact-based evidence. A comparative case study of two landslides in Recife (07 June 2022 and 06 February 2023) was analyzed, integrating regional soil moisture estimates from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) L4 product, in situ geotechnical measurements from Cemaden, and 72-hour rainfall accumulations from the Pernambuco Water and Climate Agency (APAC). Due to the limitation of continuous sub-daily surface rainfall measurements in the immediate surroundings of the analyzed slopes, radar reflectivity was used as complementary evidence to characterize the organization and relative intensity of precipitating systems close to the triggering time. Taken together, the results indicate that the probabilistic quantification of sub-daily extremes is necessary to contextualize urban risk, but is not sufficient by itself to explain the occurrence of landslides, which critically depends on antecedent hydrological conditions and their temporal and vertical response.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Interno - 1752417 - CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA
Interna - ***.212.764-** - DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES - UFPI
Interna - 1346630 - LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE
Interno - ***.072.934-** - WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES - UFCG
Externo à Instituição - TULIUS DIAS NERY
Externo à Instituição - JORIO BEZERRA CABRAL JUNIOR