Banca de DEFESA: IGOR TAUAN SANTIAGO LOPES DE MACEDO

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : IGOR TAUAN SANTIAGO LOPES DE MACEDO
DATE: 07/11/2025
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: remota
TITLE:

Analysis of Drought Vulnerability in the Apodi-Mossoró River Basin

KEY WORDS:

Brazilian Northeast, SPEI, Water Systems, Watersheds, Municipalities.

PAGES: 60
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SPECIALTY: Meteorologia Aplicada
SUMMARY:

Drought, a natural phenomenon increasingly intensified by climate change, poses a growing
threat to arid and semi-arid regions, where its impacts directly affect water security,
agricultural production, and the socioeconomic conditions of local populations. This study
assessed drought vulnerability in the Apodi-Mossoró River Basin (BHRAM), located in the
semi-arid region of Rio Grande do Norte (Brazil), aiming to identify the most susceptible
areas to water scarcity and support strategies for living with drought. The research
considered multiple dimensions — socioeconomic, climatic, environmental, and water
management — analyzed across different spatial scales, from the basin domain to the
municipal level, while accounting for local adaptive capacity. The iSECA model, adapted to
regional conditions, was applied to integrate indicators from these dimensions and produce a
spatially explicit vulnerability index. Results revealed marked structural inequality among the
four Delimitated Units (UDs) of the basin. The Upper Course exhibited High to Extreme
vulnerability, driven by socioeconomic fragility and strong climatic exposure. The Upper
Middle Course presented a heterogeneous pattern, with High to Very High vulnerability,
influenced by rainfall irregularity and limited water infrastructure. The Lower Middle Course
stood out as the least critical area, showing Low to Moderate vulnerability, acting as a buffer
zone due to a better balance between exposure and adaptive capacity. Conversely, the
Lower Course emerged as the most vulnerable region, with predominance of Very High and
Extreme classes, reflecting high water demand and low surface storage capacity.
Additionally, a perception analysis was conducted with public managers, civil defense
representatives, and members of the river basin committee to compare the modeled
vulnerability with the perceived drought impacts. The responses confirmed strong
correspondence between both perspectives, highlighting irrigated agriculture, livestock
farming, and domestic water supply as the most affected sectors. The findings demonstrate
that drought vulnerability in the BHRAM transcends climatic variability, reflecting a complex
interaction of physical, social, and institutional factors. The study provides a comprehensive
and integrated understanding of the multiple dimensions of vulnerability, contributing to the
development of resilient public policies and evidence-based decision-making at different
management levels. It emphasizes the need to strengthen participatory water governance,
invest in infrastructure adapted to semi-arid conditions, and promote education and
community awareness as key pillars for a sustainable and resilient coexistence with
droughts.

 

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 2411669 - JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA
Interno - 3217859 - PEDRO RODRIGUES MUTTI
Externa ao Programa - 2374871 - ZORAIDE SOUZA PESSOA - UFRNExterna à Instituição - GABRIELA DE AZEVEDO REIS - UFC