Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: EVERTON FELIPE DE SOUZA PINHEIRO

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : EVERTON FELIPE DE SOUZA PINHEIRO
DATE: 29/11/2024
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: Sala de seminários
TITLE:

ASSOCIATION BETWEEN THE PROBABILITIES OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS AND DISASTERS IN THE EASTERN NORTHEAST OF BRAZIL

KEY WORDS:

GEV, quantile regression, climate change, flooding, rainfall.

PAGES: 66
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SPECIALTY: Climatologia
SUMMARY:

This study aims to investigate the relationship between the probabilities of extreme precipitation occurrence and natural disasters in the eastern part of Northeast Brazil, a sub-region characterized by high population density and vulnerability to events such as floods, inundations, and landslides. The analysis uses precipitation estimates from the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) product and records from the Integrated Disaster Information System (S2ID) for the period from 2000 to 2022. Statistical methods, such as the generalized extreme value distribution with quantile regression, will be applied to estimate the probabilities of occurrence and return periods of extreme events. Additionally, the Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope tests will be used to identify trends in the frequencies and intensities of events over time. Partial results indicate that maximum precipitation shows high seasonal and spatial variability, with the March to May (MAM) and June to August (JJA) periods recording the highest indices. Coastal cities, including Natal, Joao Pessoa, Recife, and Maceio, stood out with extreme precipitation averages exceeding 100 mm/day, highlighting the high exposure of these regions to natural disasters. It is expected that this study will provide relevant information for the development of public policies and risk mitigation strategies, contributing to the reduction of disaster impacts in the eastern part of Northeast Brazil.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - ***.212.764-** - DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES - UFPI
Interno - 1752417 - CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA
Interna - 1346630 - LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE
Interno - 1164414 - WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES
Externo à Instituição - MARCOS SAMUEL MATIAS RIBEIRO - UFRA