RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND NATURAL DISASTERS IN BRAZIL
conceptual model, spatial distribution, seasonality, clustering.
In this study, the relationships between convective systems (CS) and natural disasters (ND) in Brazil from 1988 to 2020 are analyzed. The analysis will evaluate the spatial distribution, seasonality, and physical and morphological characteristics of CS using data from ISCCP-Tracking (1988 to 2002) and TOOCAN/CACATOES (2012 to 2020), as well as natural disaster data from the S2ID platform, from 1991 to 2023. The ultimate goal is to develop conceptual models for the occurrence of natural disasters in each region of the country due to the influence of CS. The results show that the average spatial distribution of CS presents the highest values during the spring (SON) and summer (DJF) months, with maximum values observed along the northwest-southeast axis, characteristic of the SACZ. The influence of other synoptic-scale systems, such as the ITCZ and UTCV, can be inferred in the northern and northeastern regions of Brazil, as the maximum CS values coincide with their climatology in these regions. Nine groups of CS with similar seasonal behavior were identified within Brazilian territory. By analyzing the physical and morphological characteristics of each group, it was observed that the groups in the northern region present larger CS, higher convective fraction percentages, and lower brightness temperatures compared to other groups.