HYDROLOGICAL MODELING OF THE EFFECT OF THE EXPANSION OF URBAN AREAS ON THE HYDROLOGICAL REGIME OF THE PITIMBU RIVER WATERSHED
Hydrological modeling, Streamflow; Northeast Brazil
Water security is one of the main challenges for water management and urban supply in Brazil. Its guarantee requires the conservation and recovery of water resources and the guarantee of an inherent supply for the multiple uses of water. The imbalance of the water balance is one of the dimensions of water insecurity, favoring the onset of water crises. Among the processes that will affect the water balance is urban expansion, occurring through changes in the distribution and quality of water resources in the terrestrial compartment. In this context, the urban Pitimbu River watershed, which supplies ~ 30% of the southern metropolitan region of Natal (RMN). This watershed has undergone intense changes in land use and land cover, with urban expansion standing out. In addition, there are few studies that have evaluated the effects of these changes on the hydrological regime of this source, as well as the future impacts on water security with the expansion of urbanization. Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of urbanization and its expansion on the hydrological regime of the Pitimbu River watershed. To this end, hydrological simulations will be carried out using the distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool Account Procedure), which requires physical spatial data (topography, vegetation cover and soil types) and meteorological data. These simulations will be long-term (over 30 years), where the hydrological regime will be simulated under the vegetation cover conditions of the Pitimbu River watershed during the years 1985, 2022 and 2042. It is expected that this study will fulfill its objective of providing an answer on the effect of urban expansion on the hydrological regime of the Pitimbu River.