Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: GIZELLY CARDOSO LIMA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : GIZELLY CARDOSO LIMA
DATE: 18/03/2022
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: Natal
TITLE:

TREND ANALYSIS AND WIND SPEED FORECAST IN BRAZIL

KEY WORDS:

Bootstrap Expectation Maximization; Mann-Kendall; Sen'slope slope test; Forecast; Box-Jenkins.

PAGES: 68
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Geografia Física
SPECIALTY: Climatologia Geográfica
SUMMARY:

Brazil has an electrical matrix mostly from renewable resources, with wind energy being the third largest source of this percentage, so it is essential to study the relationships and seasonal and interannual climate variability of the wind in the national territory, being a topic of economic importance. , scientific, and that can influence the generation of wind energy. Thus, the general objective of the present study was to analyze the long-term series of daily wind speed in Brazil from data collected in situ during the period from 1961 to 2020 and to make monthly wind speed forecasts for the year 2021. The data sources are from 73 meteorological stations managed by the National Institute of Meteorology – INMET, the missing data in the dataset are filled in by imputations by the bootstrap expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. To analyze the sign and significance of the linear trend, we used the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and to quantify the intensity of the trend, the Sen'slope test, both at a level of 5% of statistical significance. Forecasts will be performed using the Box-Jenkins methodology. Preliminary results indicated statistically significant linear trends in the average daily wind speed for most series under study. In general, it was possible to observe that the trends during the period from 1961 to 2020 were negative on the Amazon basin and positive on the semiarid region of Brazil. It was observed that for most time series the mean wind speed during the period from 1961 to 1990 was higher than that during the period from 1991 to 2020 (p-value < 0.05).

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