ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE EXTREMES, DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ENVIRONMENTAL DYNAMICS OF DESERTIFICATION NUCLEI IN BRAZIL
Desertification Centers, Climate Change, Desertification, Semi-arid Region, Northeast Brazil.
In Brazil, the nuclei of desertification are located in the semi-arid portion of the Northeast region, which are areas that present an advanced process of environmental degradation by experiencing harmful impacts from adverse natural weather conditions and anthropic actions. These impacts are associated with soil degradation, suppression of vegetation, and conflicts over the use of water resources, caused mainly by the advance of farming, monoculture, and mineral extraction over the years. In parallel, the process of degradation of these areas is intensified by the occurrence of the climatic phenomenon of drought, which favors the desertification process, drastically affecting the nuclei and compromising the lives of the populations that reside in these areas and their surroundings. In view of this scenario, the study's main objective is to present a characterization of the desertification nuclei in Brazil, having three specific objectives: i) to measure and analyze the extreme weather indicators in the areas of the desertification nuclei; ii) to analyze the socio-demographic and environmental dynamics in these areas; iii) to identify situations of vulnerability of the municipalities that make up the desertification nuclei, taking into account the conditions of the climatic, demographic and socio-environmental extremes. Various information will be used in the study, coming from different data sources. The indicators of climate extremes obtained from the meteorological variables precipitation (mm), relative humidity (%), maximum (ºC) and minimum (ºC) temperature, wind speed (m/s) and evapotranspiration (mm/day) obtained from the data base generated by the joint project between the University of Texas (USA) and the Federal University of Espírito Santo (Brazil) and made available in Xavier et al (2015). The environmental data used will be those related to land use and occupation from the MapBiomas project, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index obtained by remote sensing (AVHRR sensor - Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer). The socioeconomic and demographic variables will be those collected in the System of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE. From a broad literature review, several statistical methodologies will be applied, such as: descriptive statistics, time series analysis, and Pearson correlations, in addition to the use of RClimdex software to calculate climate indicators. The study of the characteristics and behavior of these nuclei in relation to the impacts of climate change is essential to preserve and ensure life in these areas, promoting data and knowledge for the creation of public policies to combat and remediate the impacts of climate change, as well as to promote sustainable development by ensuring the recovery of natural resources.