Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: MARCELE DE JESUS CORREA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : MARCELE DE JESUS CORREA
DATA : 03/10/2018
HORA: 08:30
LOCAL: SALA 4, ECT
TÍTULO:

AIR TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE METROPOLITAN REGION OF FORTALEZA – CEARÁ

PALAVRAS-CHAVES:

Urban climate. Effect of urbanization. Multiple Regression. Minimum squares method. Mann-Kendall test. SEBAL Algorithm.

 

 

PÁGINAS: 105
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
ÁREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
ESPECIALIDADE: Climatologia
RESUMO:

According to the United Nations, the world population was estimated in 2017 at 7.6 billion people. For Brazil, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, the estimate was over 206.660 million. The Metropolitan Region of Fortaleza, in the state of Ceará, was estimated to be over 4,051 million inhabitants, and Fortaleza has a population of over 2.6 million inhabitants. Due to urbanization, the way in which the process of land use and occupation takes place allows the formation of a climate of its own. Thus, most of the human population has lived and carried out its activities influenced by the urban climate. In this way, the increase of the urban population has generated anxieties about the study of local and regional climate changes, in an attempt to understand the relationship between anthropogenic activities and possible changes in climate. Therefore, the objective of the present research is to investigate contributing factors, such as, land use and land use change processes for the possible existence of temperature trends in the Metropolitan Region of Fortaleza-CE. To do so, first, the observed maximum and minimum temperature data for three meteorological stations of the National Meteorological Institute for the municipalities of Fortaleza, Jaguaruana and Guaramiranga will be used, as well as the data of maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, humidity (0.25 ° latitude by 0.25 ° longitude) for fault filling using the multiple linear regression technique using the least squares method for the from 1980 to 2017. Second, with the maximum and minimum temperature series filled, simple linear regression will be used, whose values of a and b of the equation will be estimated by least squares method, as well as using the Mann-Kendall test as a comparative method trend and the t-Student test to assess the significance of the nature and magnitude of these trends. The third step consists in estimating spatially the surface temperature, as well as to identify in a temporal scale the changes in the use and occupation of the soil of the studied region through the images of the satellite Landsat 5, Thematic Mapper and Landsat 8 sensors, Operational Land Imager sensors and Thermal Infrared Sensor to space, using the Surface Energy Balance Algorithms for Land method. Finally, as preliminary results, it was found that:  (i) multiple regression failure filling presented data consistent with the rest of the series, as well as non-violation of its main assumptions. However, some steps will need to be reviewed to ensure results with greater accuracy; (ii) a positive trend was observed in the average maximum temperature for the urban station, however, for the rural season, the trend was positive for the average minimum temperature. This result was possibly due to the location factor of the stations, because, in addition to the Fortaleza station is at an altitude slightly higher than the Jaguaruana station, it is located more in the interior of the continent, while the first is closer to the coast receiving greater influence from the sea breeze.

 

MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Presidente - 1914304 - KELLEN CARLA LIMA
Interno - 2411669 - JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA
Externo ao Programa - 1023112 - MARCELO BOURGUIGNON PEREIRA
Externo à Instituição - HELIOFABIO BARROS GOMES - UFAL